Offseason Notebook: League One players to watch
Stars to know from the third division, plus Detroit's overhaul and Phoenix's youth zag
More than a dozen players have made the jump from League One to the Championship this winter, and that wave is only going to keep roaring. With that in mind, I want to highlight four players that could forge a similar path next offseason.
If you’re a League One head, you may not learn much here, but a lot of my audience is Championship-centric, there’s too much talent in the third division to ignore. We’ve already seen Trevor Amann, Arthur Rogers, Joe Brito, JP Scearce, and an entire club make the jump, and the players here deserve a spotlight.
There have been plenty of huge signings in their own right in League One, but we’re keeping it to familiar faces, guys with proven track records who could be in store for massive 2024 seasons. Without further ado…
Tate Robertson
A veteran of USL League Two and NISA, Tate Robertson exploded onto the scene as the premier chance creator for Lexington in their debut campaign in 2023. A full back often used as a wide weapon in a back three concept, Robertson is a wickedly good crosser and a set piece ace. With Lexington loading up on center backs, one figures that new manager Darren Powell will afford Robertson that much more freedom to push upfield next year.
The 26-year-old had four goals and eight assists on 95th percentile expected assists last time out, elite offensive numbers by any standard. With 39 clearances and 23 interceptions, Robertson didn’t abrogate his defensive duties either. Lexington have retained much of their core, headlined by Ates Diouf up top and Jamaican international Amal Knight in net, but it’s the fire Robertson provides that will spearhead a successful sophomore effort.
Lyam MacKinnon
Though they finished in fifth place and made the playoffs, the Greenville Triumph were up and down last season, pivoting away from a defense-first identity into a more adventurous style. If the changes weren’t always a smash hit, Lyam MacKinnon was one. Drafted by Nashville SC in MLS but not signed, MacKinnon debuted in Greenville instead, racking up 1,400 minutes of play.
Over the course of the season, the Triumph forward notched seven goals and four assists, and he did so while putting in defensive actions at a 92nd percentile rate amongst League One peers. MacKinnon, as shown in the highlights from his four-goal game(!) against Chattanooga, has a keen sense for movement and a nice finishing touch, but it’s his overall energy that put him over the top as one to watch. He needs to maintain an offensive spark to allow Greenville to rebalance at back.
Bruno Rendon
Northern Colorado took League One by storm (or, uh, Hailstorm) last year with Arthur Rogers and Trevor Amann stealing the spotl; both earned Championship chances, as referenced. Still, the unsung hub of Eamon Zayed’s eminently fun-to-watch offense was Bruno Rendon at right back. His adventurous runs and powerful mien on the flank opened up the game in a major way, and he’ll be even more crucial in the year to come.
You can’t undersell Rendon’s work rate. Among League One full backs, he ranked in the 83rd percentile for defensive actions and the 98th for expected goals. He isn’t a direct Rogers replacement, necessarily, preferring a more active and go-at-your-man aggression to Rogers’ composed creation. Don’t let that difference fool you: as seen in the clip, Rendon has a tremendous sense for defensive intervention and superb eye for getting into good offensive positions. He must be an all-encompassing engine in the year ahead.
Preston Kilwien
The most familiar name here for Championship fans, Preston Kilwien has played for New York Red Bulls II, the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, and the Charleston Battery, and he brought a discernible level of experience and class to the Tormenta back line in his debut season in 2023. 27 years old, Kilwien has a rare combination of physicality and technique that make him special, and he’ll be vital for a club that’s mostly blown up their roster after a disappointing campaign.
Kilwien’s passing is always a step ahead, constantly setting up further moves and advancing Tormenta up the ladder, whether by sheer incision, clever weighting, or some other method. He’s equally good in his own area, having placed in the 87th percentile for total aerial wins and aerial win rate alike; the center back is active and efficient in duels. Tormenta’s defense was somewhat leaky last year, but Kilwien wasn’t the problem, and he’ll be an anchor for 2024, sans the Akale and Sterling types.
Detroit’s offensive overhaul
I’ve been vocal about Detroit City’s offense or lack thereof, noting in a prior piece that they had a bottom-five offense in the modern history of independent USL clubs. That dynamic is set to change by way of Elvis Amoh, Alex Villanueva, and Ali Coote.
Amoh is proven goods at the No. 9 spot, providing the most classic striker’s profile you can imagine. He bagged 11 goals in a fairly dire RGV team in 2021, improved to 12 next to Hadji Barry with the Switchbacks in 2022, and still struck five times in a dysfunctional Hartford side in 2023 amidst career-worst shooting luck.
If, as seems likely, Amoh is a nailed-on starter, I suspect he’ll pair with Ben Morris atop a 3-5-2. Morris didn’t excite as a scorer last year, but his movement in the channels and linking play was always impressive, if in want of complementary runs. Amoh brings the instinct that will perfectly suit Morris and make the offense tick in the final third. His gravity is undeniable.
My good friend at USL League One Review, meanwhile, had profiled Coote as a possible target for an American club a few weeks back. That prescience was rooted in the Irish winger’s brilliant stat sheet; he ranked in the 85h percentile or better for assists, expected assists, and crossing accuracy while generating plus numbers in regard to ball progression and goal scoring.
While Coote has usually operated as a left-sided winger in a 4-2-3-1 and has sub-standard defensive numbers, he could be an intriguing wing back option for Danny Dichio. When Dichio was in Sacramento, they used their wing backs as proxy attackers, and Coote has the skillset to fill such ann offense-first slot. Maybe he ends up in the front line with Amoh and Morris, but there’s interesting optionality here.
Villanueva, meanwhile, is more of an enigma. He broke out with the Tacoma Defiance in 2021 to the point of earning MLS minutes for Seattle, played every game in Orange County’s nadir of a 2022 campaign, and was essentially frozen out in 2023 when Orange County got good again. Still only 21 years old, Villanueva has struggled to find a position where he really excels, and that “jack of all trades, master of none” vibe left him on the sideline last year.
Still, that versatility is a plus at an new club. Villanueva can be a good energy player with wide-reaching applicability in a Detroit team that still isn’t rich with end-to-end wide options. He could be a good counterbalance to Coote’s attacking dominance, for one. Think of him as the offensive mirror to Michael Bryant’s defensive universality.
No matter where the formation ends up, I like the moves a lot as a set. Le Rouge had clear deficiencies that made 2023 a slog, and these transactions go a long way in rectifying them.
Phoenix’s youth movement
Before Juan Guerra and Phoenix Rising went their separate ways, a move I contextualized this week on the site, Guerra had gone on a trip to Italy with members of the team’s front office to scout and (probably) recreate notable Eat, Pray, Love scenes. The end result? A major signing in the form of Giulio Doratiotto.
Doratiotto was a youth star for Juventus, a club he joined at age 14. A technical, linking midfielder, the Italian teenager has experience in the UEFA Youth League for one of the biggest teams in the entire world. Limited video highlights paint him as a creative and flexible No. 8, in the mold of an Aaron Molloy or Jeremy Kelly if you require a USL comparison.
He has the maturity to earn immediate minutes. If the transition is rocky, Rising have enough central depth to give Doratiotto a safety net; think Jose Hernandez, Carlos Harvey, Panos Armenakas, and Fede Varela. This is a huge addition and a real statement of intent by the club.
Pape Mar Boye, whom I profiled via highlight video here, is a similarly ambitious acquisition, one who is likelier to slot into an Opening Day lineup. The defender helped lead Clemson to an NCAA title this year and could’ve been the #1 pick in the MLS Draft, but he opted to join Phoenix instead. He mostly played in the middle of a back three for the Tigers, sporting a mix of technique, vision, and physicality that would’ve made him a viable safety for Dabo Swinney.
Think about the Boye move in a wider context: Rising put together an offer more compelling and attractive than MLS could muster for the best prospect in the college ranks. That’s a sea change.
There’s been plenty of youth development action in the USL, and that wave is only growing stronger, but Phoenix’s move this offseason feel different. Poaching star prospects from MLS academies is one thing, but Rising are shelling out for more finished products and making the case that their system is superior to that of Juventus or Major League Soccer. These acquisitions say a lot about what Phoenix Rising has built and how the broader Championship has grown in global reputation.
(Also: really impressed by the Phoenix fanbase’s patience this winter. I know a title buys goodwill, but 23 other clubs would be in flames if they lost their coach and two best scorers. That isn’t the case in the Valley.)
In other news and links this week…
Anyone want a striker? Charleston doesn’t have one right now with Augi Williams out and Aidan Apodaca retiring. Birmingham lost Juan Agudelo to San Antonio and hasn’t re-signed Neco Brett. Pittsburgh is keeping Edward Kizza, but the specter of losing Albert Dikwa is haunting their offseason. Maybe there’s a domino effect coming when one team makes a move, but it’s a curious state in the market right now.
I’m kinda digging Chattanooga’s offseason. TJ Bush is a great get in net, Lucas Coutinho can be a real play-driver in the middle, and the NoCo guys they’ve signed will fill out the lineup nicely. Work to be done, but it’s something positive, and it’s needed with Chattanooga FC stepping up to MLS NEXT Pro. I’m also permanently in the Ropapa Mensah tank, so…
Nicholas Murray has a good guide to USL youth talent that you really ought to check out. Great context for the Pape Mar Boye signing I referenced above!
Tune in for the excellent work Phil Baki, my USL Show co-host, is doing at Protagonist. His piece on FC Tulsa this week was killer, and his coaching prognostication could prove prescient for next week.
That’s all for now. Thanks for the read, and be sure to check out Backheeled for my upcoming piece on the Fidel Barajas transfer. I got to talk with Kurt Schmid, the sporting director for Real Salt Lake, about that move and the club’s aggressive strategy for USL acquisitions.