Offseason Questions: the elite eight
Assessing what the eight teams that went the furthest should address for 2024
The offseason arrives in full at about 9:00 Eastern this Sunday, which means it’s time to think towards 2024. To start that process, I’ve been going team-by-team to pose one burning question for the winter ahead. From Las Vegas to Pittsburgh, every club has to look into the mirror and decide how to improve.
Today, I’ll preview the eight teams that won a playoff match and advanced to the Conference Semifinals at a minimum. Find part one here for the non-playoff teams and part two for the first-round exits.
Detroit: Can Trevor James’ successor build a competent offense without breaking the club’s defensive identity?
After going two-for-two in terms of playoff qualification in their first two USL seasons, Detroit City is at an inflection point. Trevor James, the club’s coach for five years, is moving off the sideline into a sporting director role overseeing broader soccer operations. Maybe the answer is simple and an assistant like Steve Myles, experienced in MLS and abroad, takes over.
Either way, Detroit can’t expect a return to the postseason without some level of soul-searching.
Elite goalkeeping and a ferociously organized defense have carried Le Rouge in recent campaigns, and if players like Nate Steinwascher, Devon Amoo-Mensah, Stephen Carroll, and Matt Lewis are back, this team will have a shot. Still, their attack in 2023 ranked in the bottom five of modern, independent. USL teams in terms of goals per game.
Some of the issue was finishing; Detroit underperformed their expected goals by a margin of 10, good for the second-worst return in the league. Players like Ben Morris and Dario Suarez showed flashes at striker without ever consistently coming good. Whoever takes over this team needs to forge a system that creates better chances while still maintaining the grit that defines the organization.
Birmingham: How can the Legion re-balance a star-heavy attack and thin defense?
In the last three years, Phanuel Kavita and Alex Crognale have combined to make more than 180 starts at center back for Birmingham, a rate just under 92%. That level of consistency for a defensive pair is nearly unheard of, and it’s the core of the Legion’s season-over-season success. Still, this team is woefully thin behind their two stars in the defensive half, and that has led to trouble whenever one of Kavita or Crognale has been unavailable.
On the flip side, the Legion have an embarrassment of riches up top, and their late-season 4-1-4-1 shape used six players who could feasibly play at forward and asked them to form a coherent midfield. It didn’t not work? With Enzo Martinez’s intelligence at the base of the midfield and the flexibility of Juan Agudelo as a hold-up No. 10, Birmingham pressed and sped their way to a playoff win.
Still, it’s clear that the roster construction needs work. Rookies like Moses Mensah and Gabriel Alves were good in the back line, and loanee Collin Smith showed flashes, but this team sorely lacked depth when push came to shove. They finished 2023 with a bottom-10 defense by xG against to boot.
Given Anderson Asiedu’s questionable future in Alabama, I’d argue that Birmingham needs to get a star No. 6 and starting-level help at center back and right back to feel solid. If that comes at the expense of a talented but overstuffed attack, it’s worth the sacrifice.
San Antonio: Will this club invest in a Marcina-ready roster or build as they go yet again?
Few teams are as scary as San Antonio FC come playoff time. Their tenacious defensive style and ability to completely dictate the terms of a match are nigh unparalleled in American soccer. Still, odd roster decisions and a squad that never felt complete across the whole of 2023 didn’t let this club build the chemistry that powered their title in 2022.
Break down San Antonio’s team construction in comparison to that of the Western Conference Finalists, and you can see the issue. Less than two-thirds of the minutes played for the Texans came from players who started on the roster on day one and ended there; more than a quarter of minutes played came from players who had been cut by playoff time.
Throw out the controversy with Jordan Farr losing his job with a positive goals saved above expected tally and 90th percentile goals against average; Marcina simply didn’t have the tools to settle on an identity from day one. Given how demanding a manager he is, for better or worse, that’s a recipe for disfunction, and it’s why San Antonio bandied around a host of different shapes until the final weeks of the year.
Settle on a vision early, go and get the players to execute it - many of whom are in-house already - and this team will be better off in 2024 as a result.
Orange County: To what degree does Morten Karlsen reinvent his post-Iloski system?
The 2021 champs and surprise team of the West in 2023 just announced a multi-year extension for Morten Karlsen, and it couldn’t be more well-earned. Karlsen’s Orange County shredded the league over the summer on the back of a bright 4-3-3, one that was maximized by clever deployments for players like Kyle Scott and Ryan Doghman.
Unlike most of the elite teams in the USL this year, Orange County can’t run it back: Milan Iloski is off to Nordsjaelland in return for a bucketload of money.
Iloski’s impact can’t be understated. He won the Golden Boot in 2022 and rated as the best player in the league in 2023 according to my player valuation model. He was responsible for 36% of Orange County’s goals, the second-highest share of any player for any club.
Karlsen built his system around Iloski’s inward-cutting tendencies and organized his defense to lighten #7’s load so as to maximize his spark on the counter. A like-for-like replacement is wholly unfeasible. Orange County has the money to splash on a new star to carry the goalscoring burden, and they can thank a brilliant youth pipeline for that, but the manner in which their manager reorients his tactics is something to track.
Louisville: Is it time to embrace a new wave of core players?
If you map Louisville’s roster against the typical aging curve for a USL roster, you’ll discover something important: this team’s leading contributors largely fall on the “old” side of the spectrum.
Sean Totsch still garnered a well-deserved all-USL nod, and players like Brian Ownby and Tyler Gibson were simply sensational in the playoffs. That said, Louisville had an honest-to-God mediocre season on balance, and a penalty win at Memphis and rout against a bizarre and lucky-to-be-there Detroit shouldn’t obscure that fact. LouCity finished 2023 with a negative goal difference, and their expected goal difference of 3.1 ranked 12th in the division.
Injury troubles and inconsistency limited the baton-passing between generations. Jorge Gonzalez and Wilson Harris were injured for regrettably long stretches. Carlos Moguel didn’t nail himself to the lineup until the end of the campaign. Ray Serrano, Enoch Mushagalusa, and Elijah Wynder all took minor steps back amidst the tumult.
Danny Cruz has an interesting offseason ahead. I wouldn’t blame him and the club for running it back for one more ride with the ol’ reliables, but the 2023 regular season showed the risk innate to that strategy. Cruz needs to figure out who of the next wave can do the job, supplement his squad, and start to build towards the next dynasty in Kentucky.
Sacramento: Are Russell Cicerone, Sebastian Herrera, and Luther Archimede the answer up top?
Russell Cicerone banged home 15 goals this year, and he did it in style with fancy, whirling finishes like this one from the Conference Finals. Cicerone also scored two goals in the final 11 matches of the regular season when he had to lead the line with Sebastian Herrera hurt.
Herrera, only 5’10” but an absolute bruiser, only got five goals in 19 starts. He’s got the hold-up chops, but he never quite found the finishing touch. Sacramento’s other option, Luther Archimede, was an absolute ace as a super sub, but he has five goals as a starting No. 9 in his entire professional career.
With all-USL goalkeeper Danny Vitiello and all-USL Conor Donovan already back under multi-year extensions, Sacramento is well on their way to another season of elite defending out of the 5-4-1. To take the leap forward and finally get over the playoff hump, however, they need to let Cicerone shine as a winger in support of a truer No. 9.
This team is at their best when they flank a striker with two wingers that can constantly rotate while providing a secondary scoring threat. Matchups may dictate centrality and conservatism at those spots via Rodrigo Lopez or Nick Ross, but allowing Cicerone to work off a partner is an option this club must have for 2024.
Phoenix: Was the postseason run a hot streak or a sign of a consistently dominant year to come?
Rising were a hard nut to crack in Juan Guerra’s first full season in charge. Phoenix finished with a +14 goal difference against a relatively pedestrian +6 expected goal difference. Their defense was bottom-seven on an expected basis, but Rocco Rios Novo put up the second-best goals saved above expected in the USL and kept the team afloat.
Playoff runs heal all wounds, and this season will be fondly remembered as a success in the Valley, but Phoenix shouldn’t rest on their laurels. Carlos Harvey’s do-it-all, box-to-box verve was an engine all year; he needs to be brought back, and Rising need to sign another piece to cover his absences with the Panamanian national team.
Darnell King and Eddie Munjoma were good first-choice full backs, but King is aging and the depth choices were inconsistent; a real offensive hub on the sideline would go a long way. Ditto at center back, where a strong threesome were always an injury away from trouble during the trophy run.
I generally think that Guerra doesn’t get enough credit for his tactical nous, nor does the Rising front office earn proper plaudits for their obvious use of data in player scouting. If they stick to the rebuild blueprint, Western title contention will be the baseline for 2024 and beyond.
Charleston: What additions are needed to maintain success amidst an ahead-of-schedule rebuild?
With a 38-year-old manager in Ben Pirmann, a barely-40 president in Lee Cohen, and the second-youngest roster in the USL, the Charleston Battery are built to last. Their rebuilt squad focused on young and prime-age players, headlined by nine regular season assists from 17-year-old Young Player of the Year finalist Fidel Barajas.
The aging curve casts a benevolent light on the Battery, who have a core in place to stay near the top of the heap for at least three or four years in a vacuum. Even when Barajas goes - imagine that fee! - Charleston is well-set-up. They hardly missed him during his absences in 2023 thanks to 24-year-old Tristan Trager stepping up to the plate; Barajas actually ended the year with a negative on-off split as a result.
That being said, there’s still room to improve. Charleston’s a bit old in the center of the park, relying on players like Robbie Crawford to plug holes and generally boasting a veteran, slightly slow center back corps. Adding solid, prime-age pieces at those spots will be key.
Really, the Battery just need to stick to the script. Investing in young stars has paid off already, and the groundwork for more success is being laid; 21-year-old New Zealand international Jesse Randall is one to watch in 2024. With Pirmann at the helm, tactical excellence is assured, but building out a roster to express his ideas still requires considerate maneuvering.