On the coaching pipeline

What to make of a slew of bold USL-and-MLS personnel moves

Last Thursday, the one and only Owain Evans set off an Oppenheimer-sized bomb in his report that Juan Guerra would join the Houston Dynamo of Major League Soccer as an assistant coach. Guerra wasn’t the first high-profile manager to swap leagues this winter, but he made the biggest splash.

Just 36 years old, the Venezuelan coach took Phoenix Rising from a playoff miss to a USL Championship title in his first full season. He did so in style, championing a high-possession system in which players were expected to execute nuanced tactics. Though only in his second year as a head coach, Guerra has already completed USSF A-level license.

That an accomplished manager with a title defense on the horizon chose to take an assistant job is the shock, and Guerra isn’t alone in carving that path. Last winter, regular USL Coach of the Year contender Brendan Burke moved from the Colorado Springs Switchbacks to the Houston Dynamo bench. Blair Gavin left FC Tulsa for the New England Revolution this very week.

What’s behind the increasingly common exchange between leagues?

Improving standards

The USL has continued to improve on the field, as evidenced in an ability to sell players, from young stars like Josh Wynder to established veterans like Milan Iloski, overseas. Surging talent levels have gone hand-in-hand with more sophisticated tactics, evidenced by the rise of short passing, intentional pressing schemes, and phase-based gameplans.

In 2017, the average side in the Championship played about 430 passes per match. By 2023, that numbers had ballooned to surpass 560. Indeed, the most direct team in the division, San Antonio FC, surpassed the 2017 median by attempting 450 passes per game. Possessive, skill-based soccer is undeniably on the rise.

Young coaches are putting in the work to excel in a more cerebral environment. The aforementioned Guerra continues to work toward USSF badges. Khano Smith of Rhode Island FC and Ben Pirmann of the Charleston Battery recently attained USSF Pro licenses, doing so alongside figures like Wilfred Nancy. Smith, in fact, has a number of UEFA plaudits to boot. These certifications illustrate how the next wave of talent is improving itself and, in doing so, becoming more attractive to MLS organizations.

The USL Players Union has taken steps to promote coaching education as well, a natural next step for players in the twilight of their active careers. Darnell King, a long-time full back in the USL and NASL, is a motivating example, and he began his pursuit of a USSF B badge during the 2023 season. This winter, he retired and immediately took an assistant coaching job for Phoenix Rising.

It’s the era of the young coach in the USL Championship. In 2017, the average age for a manager at an independent club was 45.7 years old and the median was 46. In 2023, that average was down to 42.8 with a median of 41. The movement towards forward-thinking gaffers less removed from their playing careers is widespread.

Put it all together, and you’ve got an ascendent pipeline for young coaches, an expectation that these coaches will pursue self-improvement opportunities, and a level of play that puts these up-and-comers through the wringer.

Foot-in-the-door necessity

MLS clubs, despite an admiration for some of the talent on show in the USL coaching ranks, has hesitated to give head jobs to second-division managers. Thus, taking an intermediate step to become an assistant on an MLS staff is a must for aspirational coaches.

In years past, the few managers to make the jump had links with MLS affiliates, then competing in the USL. Wilmer Cabrera, for instance, moved back and forth between Rio Grande Valley FC and the Dynamo because of such institutional ties. The landscape has changed with MLS developmental teams having moved to MLS NEXT Pro.

There’s also a tendency towards stasis within the coaching ranks in many professional leagues. The same individuals cycle between open jobs, and it’s hard to break in. From, say, Caleb Porter in New England to the Sam Allardyce example in England or even the oft-registered criticism of unoriginal hiring in the NHL. It’s a game of musical chairs.

Troy Lesesne set the example for how to claim a seat. Successful but not world-beating with New Mexico United, Lesesne at least developed a clear style of play, one attractive enough to earn him an assistant job for the New York Red Bulls. The former USL man put in the time and effort and eventually took over the lead role at Red Bull Arena. Initiated into the club of “perfectly safe hires” as a result, Lesesne got the DC United gig this winter.

Getting your foot in the door is the only path for ambitious managers aiming to reach the top level. Lesesne, followed by Brendan Burke the next winter, were the canaries in the coal mine of impending change.

After an impressive stint in Colorado Springs where he cultivated a clear style, the former Bethlehem Steel gaffer was a wanted man. Joining Houston was a surprising move to be sure, but it was the best way to show ambition. That Burke turned tailed and returned to the USL says more about Hartford’s deep pockets and lofty aspirations than anything else.

Anywhere in the MLS ecosystem can provide a stepping stone. Mark Lowry, widely considered one of the best managers in the history of lower-league soccer, will take over Real Monarchs in MLS NEXT Pro next season, but he assuredly has his eyes on a bigger prize. The appeal of the highest level is undeniable for these upwardly mobile coaches, and they must start somewhere within MLS’ unique ecosystem.

Connections and conspiracies

Break out the tin foil hats, y’all. The dumber corner of the internet are convinced that MLS is poaching USL coaches just for the sake of rivalry!

That theory is, as you’d expect, straight-up dumb. Expanding into big, unclaimed markets like Cleveland? Sure. Giving promotions and opportunities to promising coaches? Not the sort of thing that moves the needle, if MLS even cares about the purported war.

There’s simply more money and opportunity on the table in the first division. I haven’t been able to confirm dollar amounts, but there’s a general sense that no one is taking a pay cut in moving in MLS. Moreover, there’s the added prestige of managing in a higher-profile competition. Being in the top tier matters!

Many on-the-go coaches have existing ties to MLS. Gavin, in leaving Tulsa, is joining Caleb Porter, the man who hired him with the Columbus Crew years ago. There were similar rumors that Porter would poach Eric Quill, another former assistant who’s now leading New Mexico United. The USL’s predilection for hiring ex-players feeds into the loop; think about a Khano Smith, a sure-to-come MLS target who spent years actually playing in MLS, or Danny Cruz of Louisville City, a stalwart attacker in the early 2010s.

When rising stars like Nate Miller, the savant behind the San Diego Loyal just added to the Real Salt Lake technical staff, get to move to Major League Soccer, it’s a reward for good performance rather than a sign of a sinister scheme. Juan Guerra drew attention for winning a title. To think otherwise is an insult to his accomplishments and is ignorant of the real strides the USL is making at large.

Institutional investment into young USL coaches, the quirks of the MLS coaching carousel, and the role of familiarity in hiring have all conspired to make this winter a banner period in the American managerial market. That’s a good thing. Soccer coaching has never been better, and these transactions are what a healthy pyramid ought to inspire: rightfully-earned promotions for the best coaches in the lower leagues.