Offseason Notebook: Can North Carolina FC hit the ground running?
How John Bradford's team is adapting for 2024, plus other notes from the USL week
I last checked in with North Carolina FC in the middle of the League One season, taking a look at their style on the way to a second-place finish. Things only improved come playoff time, where John Bradford’s managerial nous shone as his took home silverware. What can we learn from that title run, and how has North Carolina continued to strengthen this winter?
The adaptable 4-4-2 that defined the season continued to bear fruit throughout the postseason. Still, Bradford was willing to improvise and adjust in order to meet the needs of a given matchup.
Against Northern Colorado in the League One semifinals, that meant clamping down on Arthur Rogers. The all-league midfielder-defender created a bawdy 88 chances in 2023, and North Carolina denied him by adapting their press.
Up top, Oalex Anderson and Garrett McLaughlin were tremendous as a tandem. Both players sat off of the opposing central defenders and focused on denying lanes to Rogers. When he got a touch, one North Carolina striker would run at the creator while the other cut off his clearest passing angle.
Meanwhile, central midfielders Mikey Maldonado and Raheem Sommersall sat back as a safety net beneath the forwards. The pair combined for eight defensive actions, and their side conceded only three shots on net all night in a winning effort.
In the title game, Bradford varied his strategy on the wing. Rafa Mentzingen and Louis Perez started as the right and left wingers, respectively, in the defensive 4-4-2, but variation ensued.
In possession, North Carolina got creative. Perez, a former Pittsburgh Riverhound, played quite deep and roved the left sideline like a wing back. In support, Nelson Blanco Flores - ostensibly the left back - became a third central defender.
There was balance on the right. Mentzingen, once of Memphis 901, slid into the right half space like a forward, allowing for Christian Young to get upfield from right back. Ultimately, the shape turned into a potent 3-4-3 in attack, one that powered North Carolina to the lion’s share of good chances in a winning effort.
The playoffs weren’t a deviation from the norm. Over the entire season, the Cary-based club generated the third-most goals and second-most shots in the league. They conceded just 39 times in the regular season and twice in the postseason despite posting a -7.8 goals saved above expected. This club never settled on a consistent (or even competent) keeper, but their system was so good across 2023 that it didn’t end up mattering.
Since then, Bradford and co. have undergone the most star-studded offseason re-tool in the USL to add both quality and versatility. Not only is this team weaponizing for the jump, but they’re retaining fungibility across the squad.
Rodrigo Da Costa leads the charge. Capable anywhere across a front line, the 29-year-old Brazilian is an elite option at the Championship level. 46 goals and 28 assists across the last five years don’t lie.
Da Costa is the sort of player who’s always seeking out the ball, probing to find touches and link play in the final third. He’s a clever mover who likes to make runs into the left half space - think about the pair with a deep Perez! - but has the gumption and intuition to find room in the box.
Evan Conway brings versatility and firepower in a similar but stylistically unique manner. Most recently part of the San Diego Loyal, Conway played everywhere from wing back to No. 9 at Torero Stadium, and that plug-and-play character will pay dividends for North Carolina.
Last year, Conway bagged 10 goals on 38 shots, registered a top-notch 33% cross accuracy, and made the third-most appearances on a heavily rotated roster. The former Loyal star has work rate and talent for days, and he tends to become indispensable no matter his team context.
You see it above. The first play begins with his defensive pressure helping to create a turnover, followed by a wisely criss-crossed run that leads him to the net for a finish. The second example is also strong, beginning with a dish wide and ending in a far-post header. Conway does it all, and he does it all well.
The additions extend to the back half. Take Paco Craig, who has skill-laden verve on the ball and is the league’s most dangerous header of the ball on corners. He’s a five-time all-USL awardee, however, because of the defensive brilliance first and foremost.
Craig, a 6’2” center back, had the fifth most blocks, fifth most aerial wins, and fourth most clearances of any Championship defender in 2023. He’s built to clean up messes, and he’s done so at an unmatched level that immediately elevates North Carolina’s defensive corps in a major way.
Ahead of him at the No. 6 spot, Conway’s former San Diego teammate Collin Martin is as good as it gets in the defensive midfield. Martin is a true match controller and tempo setter in the midfield. He had ninth-best pass completion percentage in the USL at 89.1%; he also played second-most minutes and created the second-most shots on the Loyal.
Here, you see Martin drop into the back three and carry possession out of the home half. On the flip side, you see his defensive intelligence as he does the job in front of his back line. The third clip sees Martin turn on a dime, advancing out of a tight-window with aplomb. That poise is a constant for North Carolina’s new addition.
An overhaul has occurred at full back, too. Justin Malou, a standout for Columbus Crew 2 in MLS NEXT Pro and former FC Tulsa man, will likely start on the right. At left, former St. Louis City and Pittsburgh Riverhound Ezra Armstrong will strengthen the unit as well. Both are solid pieces.
There’s even been a move to correct the issue in net. Jake McGuire, who spent 21 games with the club in 2021, was signed as a free agent off of Miami FC this week. McGuire boasted a 70% save percentage in South Beach, ranking in the 67th percentile for Championship keepers. In 12 starts, he earned just about two goals saved above expected, though the majority of them came in a truly insane 12-save outing in the fall.
Stylistically, McGuire is a long passer. 65% of his distributive attempts were booted this past season, which far outstrips the 40% rate from North Carolina’s goalkeeping stable. Bradford wouldn’t have brought in McGuire if he didn’t think the player could adjust, but it’s something to note.
All in all, the maneuvering creates a squad laden with talent and optionality. North Carolina FC had a brilliant 2023, but they aren’t resting on their laurels. The business end of their lineup is competitive at the highest levels.
John Bradford showed off his managerial chops in a major way last year, taking a roster composed of high-profile League One acquisitions and forming them into a juggernaut. Now, newly named Sporting Director, Bradford is intending to do the same at the next level, and he may just pull off the trick.
In other news this week, I’m in a curmudgeonly mood.
I got to sit down with League One President Lee O’Neill, and that piece will be out on Backheeled next week. I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I think it’s a great look at the state of the league. Good tidbits about wild expansion plans for the in-season cup!
So apparently it’s a Rhode Island thing that they’ve got 39 cities? The USL is educational.
I’ve got more coming on Rhode Island when they get closer to a complete lineup, but the Marc Ybarra signing is unreal. This club is doing everything right.
Miami has me worried right now. They lost a ton of good players, sold Paco Craig while he was under contract, and have signed a roster that looks competitive at the low end of League One. More to come, but woof.
The Open Cup news sucks. At the same time, criticism of journalists who didn’t instantly admonish MLS is wrongheaded. Prior appearances on the MLS site - most of which garner a woeful commission - don’t mean you’re bought and sold. I hate the choice the league made, but eff off with the ad hominem nonsense.
Thanks to everyone who supports the Substack, Backheeled, and my work anywhere else. I’ve had a bit of a crap week, and a handful of out-of-the-blue messages from people really lifted my spirits. The USL community makes the effort worth it.