What could a "USL Premier" look like?

The possible make-up of a new top league if the USL adopts promotion and relegation

Between Jeff Reuter’s excellent reporting at The Athletic and the recent comments from Union Omaha’s leadership as reported by Walkin 90 (who deserve all the listens and follows), it seems that any promotion and relegation system in the USL will be a three-tiered entity.

Rapid expansion could make that breakout a necessity. The USL Championship and USL League One are currently comprised of 36 clubs. By the time the 2026 World Cup rolls around, that number could be pushing 50 thanks to a spate of expansion teams. If the USL wants to grow the Jagermeister Cup and maintain legitimate league competitions in a pro-rel environment, adding a “USL Premier” makes sense on paper.

This premier division would sit atop the current leagues as the acme of a promotional pyramid. That doesn’t mean it would be a “first division” relative to USSF sanctioning. The federation’s Pro League Standards set requirements at each level roughly as follows:

• Division I: 12 teams, eventually rising to 14 by the third year of existence; 75% of teams in a metro area with more than 1,000,000 people; three time zones covered; all stadiums with a capacity above 15,000

• Division II: 8 teams, eventually rising to 10 by the third year of existence and 12 by the sixth; 75% of teams in a metro area with more than 750,000 people; three time zones covered; all stadiums with a capacity above 5,000

• Division III: 8 teams; no time zone or metro requirements; all stadiums with a capacity above 1,000

As we’ll see, the new league almost assuredly wouldn’t meet first-division stadium standards; the 15,000-seat capacity minimum is a non-starter for most of the USL. Barring massive infrastructural investment banking on an influx of revenue, USL Premier would sit next to the existing Championship as a co-second tier, or the re-constituted Championship could drop down as a co-third division.

I can’t tell you that pro-rel would suddenly make the USL competitive with MLS, much less the European leagues that command so much American attention. Like it or not, MLS is what Americans think of when they imagine domestic soccer - whether fans could overcome the USL’s “minor league” perception is an open question.

But that’s a debate for another day. Back to the topic at hand: which markets might get the call for a USL Premier? The criteria here fall into four main buckets: control over your own venue, path to Division I eligibility, media market attractiveness, and sporting/operational merit.

Let’s dig in.

Near Locks

Here, we’ve got 12 existing USL Championship organizations that seem like natural fits for the new top tier because of their stadium situations. These teams either own their soccer-specific stadium, play at a facility that exceeds the Division I capacity minimum, or have previously laid out a blueprint to expand a stadium and potentially meet that 15,000-seat floor.

Some cases are obvious. Louisville, Colorado Springs, and Pittsburgh have constructed their own soccer specific facilities. Though Highmark Stadium is modestly sized in the case of the Riverhounds, it’s owned by Tuffy Shallenberger and thus easier to grow out with less red tape.¹ Phoenix’s setup is more modular, but it fits the same bill. Because of their solid plans for a venue, Detroit, New Mexico, and Rhode Island also get the nod.

A quick aside: owning your own facility is a priority across the USL whether you want to expand to 15,000 or not. Being able to dictate dates is a huge upside, but the revenue implications are more important still. Self-ownership avoids rental costs, revenue splitting at the gates and concession stands, and build-up/tear-down expenses that arise because of other events at a shared stadium. Owning a lower league soccer team is a money pit; cutting out the venue middleman makes it more like a money ditch.

The other five clubs here - Birmingham, Oakland, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Tampa Bay - meet the population minimums as well as Division II venue standards. The self-owned component isn’t here, but there’s a path to that magical capacity number.

We know that San Antonio’s Toyota Field is expandable to 18,000. Al Lang Stadium at least has the bones to support similar growth, though plans to get ‘er done have gone mum since Bill Edwards exited the scene. Sacramento has long been in discussions to attract MLS with a project of their own, and Kevin Nagle has the ambition you want to see.

Birmingham, who play at 47,000-seat Protective Stadium but tend to cap their ticket sales below that mark, pass the Division I test. Oakland is all but assured to end up at the Coliseum next season, which puts them in the same neighborhood. Do I love cavernous venues? Not really, but they do the job.

Say this is your bare minimum set for a first tier USL Premier. You meet the time zone and population requirements, you’re good on team count until year six, and you’ve at least got a loose path to stadium compliance.

In terms of broadcasting reach and marketability, you’ve got the framework of something solid here. When the USL attracts national broadcast partners like CBS, it does so because of the variety on offer. Clubs like Oakland don’t dominate in major markets like the Bay Area, but they provide a foothold in a very “Rutgers to the Big Ten” fashion.

That said, sheer market size isn’t the end-all or be-all. When I interviewed USL CCO Court Jeske for Backheeled about the CBS deal, he emphasized how the USL “could deliver messaging to…the Indianapolises, the Tampas, the Spokanes of the world” as a selling point for the network. With these 12 clubs, you’ve got big hitters as well as the mid-sized cities with less entertainment competition and more of a chance to make a mark.

Yes, But…

The edge cases are a more interesting proposition. I’ve got 12 markets here that aren’t entirely guaranteed for one reason or another.

Indy would’ve been a no-brainer about four months ago. Now, with MLS circling the market and the Eleven’s stadium plans foiled, nothing is sure about the team’s future. It’s 95% likely that Indy gets into the hypothetical USL Premier, but you can’t discount something disastrous happening in the next few months. Bucket Miami FC in this same percentage likelihood. They’ve benefited from Riccardo Silva dropping the bag for years and represent a major media market, but how long does that last in the face of Inter Miami? 2024 has already seen spending drop.

Charleston is one of the darlings of the USL. They’ve got a history dating back to the 1990s, a young and attractive team on the pitch, and leadership ties with league HQ. The major hang-up comes in terms of the stadium at Patriots Point, which has a capacity below current Division II standards. Ditto for a sub-Division I population. Depending on where USL Premier wants to sit, Charleston could lose out. I badly want them in, but requirements are what they are.

Orange County and Las Vegas are too well-run and too valuably located to be ignored. You worry about the threat of MLS eventually coming for a second bite at the apple regarding Championship Soccer Stadium, but OCSC gives you a presence in Los Angeles and elite youth development. Las Vegas is a prized market for gambling reasons, and they finally have competent ownership in the form of Jose Bautista.

I’m also being mean to most of the clubs in baseball stadiums. El Paso, Memphis, and Tulsa are all well-run, but they aren’t knockouts when it comes to their markets and struggle with the visual attractiveness on screen that the USL might value. The Locomotive also get a knock on the sub-million population front.

That leaves Loudoun, Monterey, and North Carolina. While Loudoun is a club on the rise and I’m impressed with their still new-ish ownership, they’re suburban and sit in an MLS city if we’re being practical. Monterey, meanwhile, is a club in a crowded geographic region of the USL Championship, and they aren’t big spenders. They’re also the smallest market here by far. North Carolina just leapt back up from USL League One, but they’ve middled in terms attendance and find themselves located in a crowded southeast.

Depending on the size of USL Premier, every team here could stake a claim, but none is a complete lock.

League One Candidates

This whole article came about because of comments out of Omaha, and they’ve made it clear that they’ll exercise an option to join the Championship when their stadium project is complete. Union Omaha represents one of the best-run organizations in the lower leagues, and they help to fill the geographic gap between the two coasts. Even if a first-pass pro-rel proposal discourages direct league-hopping from tier three to tier one, Omaha has attributes that deserve a second look.

In that same vein, Lexington has made rapid progress on a stadium project of their own. Though less attractive in terms of market size and proximity to the golden boy of the USL in Louisville, Lexington almost certainly has an Omaha-like promotion clause in their agreement with the league. That represents an inside lane to the top of the pile.

Chattanooga is a weird one. I’ve heard very well-sourced whispers that they want a move up the ladder. Is that somewhat insane given the presence of Chattanooga FC and their public own goals, a la unplayable field conditions earlier in the season? Yeah. The smoke still can’t be ignored.

League One

It seems that the rest of League One is going to sit tight for the time being. Given market sizes and whatnot, that makes sense!

Do I want Madison’s brand or Richmond’s fanbase in the highest league possible? Sure. Even so, Madison isn’t there in terms of venue, and Richmond has flourished by self-relegating in the first place - reducing their financial commitments and regionalizing the schedule by dropping from the Championship to League One has been a boon.

Similar logic applies to the half-dozen expansion clubs in League One who need time to settle into existence. Westchester, Antelope Valley, and Santa Barbara look like major markets on paper because of their proximity to New York and Los Angeles, but all three are seeking to carve out smaller niches. They won’t be Division I clubs from day one, nor are they striving to be.

A healthy pyramid ought to derive strength from a set of healthy clubs at the bottom step anyway. If these teams come to fruition in a burgeoning League One - a competition with a relatively modest $5 million expansion fee - they can accomplish that goal. For more, check out an excellent preview of each expansion effort from USL League One Updater.

Championship Expansion

We wrap with the existing USL Championship expansion clubs. 10 markets have been announced (or are seeking to return from hiatus in Oklahoma City’s case) for future starts. Only Brooklyn FC is slated to hit the field in 2025, and their first-division women’s team in the USL Super League actually starts play at Coney Island this month.

For a deeper look on the state and viability on each Championship market, check out my round-up from a few months back. Little has changed across the board since I hit publish, to be frank. It’s a lot of cities with nebulous ownership and stadium situations, and you doubt that more than two or three are on the field by 2026. The Oklahoma City franchise (née Energy?) was just sold to a new majority investor, and Buffalo has made seemingly strong inroads into the community with launch events; they’re promising. I wouldn’t bet the farm on much else outside of Brooklyn for now.

Results (and a word of caution)

In the end, I’m creating a 16-team league. This is how I’d optimistically line the divisions up if the split happened in 2025. You start with the 12 near locks as a solid base, then you add in:

• Brooklyn, for the New York market.

• Miami, for that city and because they have access to a Division I-compliant facility.

• Indy, on the prayer that MLS goes away and that a stadium can eventually happen (or that they can return to Lucas Oil Stadium if necessary).

• Orange County, because of Los Angeles and their operational excellence.

You can imagine a nice single-table USL Premier with 30 league matches, a truncated playoff setup, and inclusion in a regionalized Jagermesiter Cup. It’s quite fun!

Frankly, though, going through this dumb process made me skeptical about the tripartite split for now.

Let’s be honest. The mass of USL clubs that have a stadium built or have one in the works aren’t aiming for Division I capacity. To hit that mark in 14 markets would be a small miracle, practically impossible until the 2030s in the face of red tape.

Maintaining the Championship as a Division II competition isn’t a cakewalk either. I’ve begrudgingly kept Las Vegas out of the top tier to solidify the Championship’s Western bloc and give Monterey a partner, but it’s still onerous to meet the time zone needs.

Under their new ownership, Oklahoma City gets revived in an exciting Great Plains pod, and both Omaha and Lexington get an early leap up the pyramid. The future of this division is interesting: you’re essentially Division II compliant from the jump, but only just. Meanwhile, your impending expansion markets are mostly situated further East.

Might a Division III drop make more sense? Quite possibly. Fan perception of league quality matters when you’re comparing Division I against the lower leagues (i.e., MLS against the USL), but it’s a non-issue at the other levels. Like, North Carolina just won the League One title and jumped a tier, yet their attendance is down 15% this year; Richmond thrived after “relegating” as mentioned.

I can’t imagine that the current batch of USL clubs approves this system in the first place. If you’re one of the nine teams essentially getting relegated from the highest rung of the USL ladder, what’s your incentive? There’s no guarantee of pro-rel boosting revenues over night, and there’s no guarantee that you’ll win your way back up.

Given that Division I status is a pipe dream, you’re essentially hoping that a bizarre pyramid of co-Division II leagues will suddenly rake in fans because of a promotion system. I could just be cynical and dumb,² but that’s a massive presumption.

Maybe it works; maybe it doesn’t. The savvy businesspeople who own USL teams - a class of rich people with lots of money but not the infinite resources of most MLS billionaires - won’t be won over by “maybe.”

As exciting as pro-rel and a challenge for Division I status is for Twitter nerds who get off on Ted Westervelt tweets, the “USL Premier” structure isn’t a silver bullet. The USL has made remarkable strides within the last half-decade by trusting the process and leaning into slow, steady growth. A big swing like a league split doesn’t fit that bill for now, even if it’s fun to dream about.

1. If you aren’t getting the vibe yet, I’m being generous here.

2. Writing thousands of words about this topic is evidence of that fact!