USL Championship Expansion: sizing up the 10 markets
Which of USL Championship's expansion projects are the likeliest to thrive?
The flowers are blooming, the weather’s getting warmer, and Justin Papadakis is shaking hands while holding a soccer ball for a photo op: it’s the USL’s typical spring expansion period.
In the last month, Brooklyn, Roswell (Georgia, not aliens), and Buffalo were all confirmed as USL Championship teams to be. With those markets in tow, the Championship now has nine active expansion projects and one revival on deck. Which efforts are best positioned to get off the ground, and which add the most value to the USL?
Let’s dig in.
Expansion Markets
Brooklyn
Initially launched as a USL League One team, Brooklyn FC changed lanes and announced their intention to join the USL Championship this March. Representing one of the most soccer-crazy, populous, and media-concentrated cities in the world, the club represents an intriguing opportunity for the USL’s growth.
Brooklyn FC is set to begin play in 2025 and has announced Maimonides Park at Coney Island as its inaugural venue. A 7,000-seat baseball stadium, Maimonides Park has served as the home of the New York Cosmos and baseball’s Brooklyn Cyclones. The commute is just around an hour one-way from Lower Manhattan or Downtown Brooklyn via subway; the location is as good as any in the context of New York City’s impossible real estate situation.
Whether the club can draw eyeballs and make inroads with local soccer fans is the big question. During the Cosmos’ 2017 season at the same stadium, they drew an average attendance exceeding 4,700. However, Brooklyn FC will kick off with none of their historic brand equity and with the looming specter of NYCFC’s stadium project in Queens, which is on track for a 2027 opening.
North Sixth Group, a successful press agency that diversified into further investments in 2021, will own the team, and company chairman Matt Rizzetta will likewise chair the USL initiative. The North Sixth organization invested into Serie B’s Ascoli in 2021 and isn’t a stranger to the game.
The club will benefit from synergy on the men’s and women’s side, as the Brooklyn group will be a founding member of the USL Super League this Fall. If the women’s team can successfully market themselves as the only first-division club in the city (as opposed to the NWSL’s Gotham FC in New Jersey), it could serve as a boon for the Championship brother side.
Jacksonville
Announced in late 2022 and christened Sporting Club Jacksonville at the end of 2023, the USL’s Jacksonville initiative was initially aiming for a 2025 start, though sources indicate 2026 is likelier now. The club’s majority owner is Richard Caplin, a locally-based hedge fund investor and entrepreneur, although the ownership group is headlined by Tim Tebow and Jacksonville Jaguar great Fred Taylor.
Strategically, Jacksonville provides another natural rival for Miami FC, the Tampa Bay Rowdies, and the rest of the Southeastern contingent. It also plants seeds in a top-50 television market and represents upside within a once soccer-hungry city.
To get the nasty bit out of the way: yes, the Jacksonville Armada are planning a comeback in MLS NEXT Pro. The Armada kicked off to an average attendance of 7,900 in their inaugural 2015 season but dropped into the 3,000s by the time the NASL collapsed; since then, they played one year in the NPSL. Owner Robert Palmer has flirted with the USL in the past to no avail, and he hopes to have a stadium ready for 2025.
Sporting Jax hasn’t yet announced a venue, but their kick-off in the USL Super League is swiftly approaching as well. They’ve already hired respected manager Becky Burleigh, the long-time coach of the Florida Gators and former interim head of the Orlando Pride, to help consult on the women’s side. Naturally, Palmer and co. have expressed interest in bringing the NWSL to Jacksonville, which is in the “blowing smoke” category at this stage.
Assuming a stadium can be sorted out - 121 Financial Stadium, a baseball venue, and Hodges Stadium, a football arena, are viable picks - Sporting Jax could have a crucial first-mover advantage over the revived Armada (and their giant inflatable kraken) across the board. Marketing will be key, and the ownership star power and clean branding of Sporting Jax may be a boon.
Des Moines
Launched club with 2025 aspirations that were ultimately delayed to 2026 at least, USL Pro Iowa is the next evolution of the existing Des Moines Menace. Owner Rob Krause, the longest-tenured owner at any level in the United Soccer League thanks to his role with the Menace, is the CEO of famed Midwestern rest stop chain Kum & Go and took over Parma in Serie B in 2020.
The Iowa group seemed to be on the way to a successful launch, but their stadium project ran into snags and ballooning costs. Initially priced at $60 million, the cost increased to just under $100 million and is now, by some estimates, projected closer to $150 million. Only about a sixth of which would be covered by state and county subsidies. The stadium project was initially slated for 2024 completion.
Des Moines itself is a useful addition in terms of sheer geography, representing a needed presence in the Upper Midwest and the central time zone. It would be a natural complement to markets like Detroit and Indy. However, Des Moines is both the second-smallest metro area and television market announced by the USL.
Krause and co. are still deeply invested in the game, as evidenced in their Open Cup un-retirement shenanigans with players like Sacha Kljestan and AJ DeLaGarza. 2025 is likely an overly ambitious goal, but USL Pro Iowa still feels likelier than not to eventually hit the pitch.
New Orleans
New Orleans has long been a putative jewel in the crown of lower-division soccer leagues, and it was announced as a USL Championship city in 2022 under the steerage of experienced soccer businessman and New Orleanian Jamie Guin as well as ”Johnny Appleseed of the USL” Warren Smith. A co-founder and club president for both the Sacramento Republic and San Diego Loyal, Smith immediately leant an air of credibility to the New Orleans project.
Louisiana’s largest city and a favored Southern tourist destination, New Orleans is in line with other expansion sites in terms of size and is a borderline top-50 television market. Its cultural cachet goes further, and it doesn’t hurt that the city has passionately supported both NFL and NBA franchises. A New Orleans-based group had signed up for the NASL in 2018, as per that league’s anti-trust filing (see section 184), but it never got off the ground.
Despite the potential, the New Orleans initiative has gone mum in recent months. The hopes for a stadium project in the River District have been dimmed because of recalcitrance from the owner of the land the club was targeting; he basically said “no, soccer is boring,” which is a very smart and valid business take. Additionally, an announced USL Super League effort hasn’t made it to that league’s club list.
Meanwhile, Smith has divided his attention (and pocketbook) across the USL landscape…
Rogers (Northwest Arkansas)
Majority owned by Warren Smith alongside Arkansas-based businessman and former soccer player Chris Martinovic, the USL Northwest Arkansas project has plans for a $20 million stadium seating 5,000 aiming for 2026 completion. The club will represent the urban cluster of Fayetteville, Bentonville, and Rogers while playing their matches in the latter.
Northwest Arkansas would, by far, be the smallest market in the USL Championship with a metro population under a million and a television market that barely cracks the top 100. The upside is a lack of competition. That part of the country is deeply underrepresented when it comes to professional sports, much less professional soccer.
Per the piece linked above from Talk Business - the Northwest Arkansas region’s local business publication - the first steps towards a club brand should be expected in the first few months of 2024. Additionally, Smith and Martinovic are expected to add minority owners to their group.
Though the club has announced intentions to start a professional women’s team, Arkansas is not represented in the USL Super League’s inaugural field nor in the list of second-wave expansion markets. Despite that, the initiative has remained active and vocal, and 2026 feels attainable if things continue to go well.
Buffalo
After a previous false start, a new USL expansion effort was confirmed for Buffalo, New York on March 28th, spearheaded by the aforementioned Peter Marlette, Jr. Slated for 2026 entrance into the USL Championship, the club will pursue its own stadium project and plans to eventually found a USL Super League team.
Marlette is a veteran of USL League Two’s FC Buffalo, and that club’s warm statement recognizing the entrance of an ostensible competitor is a strong sign for community outreach. Indeed, Marlette’s track record of on-field success while at Union Omaha reads the same way in terms of operations. Still, he’s evidently not the money man here, and launching a club without word of a high-net-worth majority backer is atypical.
Western New York is no stranger to USL soccer. Buffalo is about an hour’s drive away from Rochester, which hosted the Rochester Rhinos from 1996 to 2017 if we’re ignoring the abortive MLS NEXT Pro revival. Notably, the Rhinos drew more than 10,000 fans per match in the early aughts; Buffalo is a bigger city and is famous for its raucous sports fandom.
Milwaukee
Launched with a 2025 start in mind but already delayed to 2026, Milwaukee marks another attempt on the part of the USL to expand in the Midwest. The delays stem from the club’s Iron District stadium project, which will also host Marquette soccer and lacrosse. Notably, Democratic governor Tony Evers was able to save $9 million in funding for the venue in the face of Republican opposition.
Milwaukee is the fourth-biggest city and third-biggest television market on the Championship’s announced slate, and it’s a natural partner for the potential Iowa expansion. Team owner Jim Kacmarcik is from the area, and he made his fortune in metal stamping after graduating from the University of Wisconsin in Madison.
The club drew eyeballs last year upon the launch of its team naming competition, which was, frankly, wild as hell. We’re down to a top 10 now with such spectacular possibilities as “Cream City” and “Milwaukee Tall Boys” still on the table.
Roswell
On March 25th, a new USL initiative was announced in Roswell, Georgia, a wealthy suburb north of Atlanta. Uniquely, the expansion club has positioned a USL Super League team as its first priority and the anchor tenant of a potential stadium project, though a USL Championship side is very much on the cards.
Per the announcement press release, the league and city have entered into a nine-month negotiation period to hammer out the details of the stadium and entertainment district. Specifics about investors and playing timelines were not forthcoming; it’s a similar situation to Buffalo, with no obvious owner associated with the project at the time of the announcement.
Roswell itself has a population just over 90,000, but it’s part of the hulking Atlanta metro, and it would take 45 minutes in traffic to get from there to Mercedes Benz-Stadium to watch Atlanta United play. Of course, Atlanta United boasts an average attendance above 47,000 in MLS, and that could be a death knell for the Championship team. Notably, the Atlanta Silverbacks of the NASL averaged an attendance of 4,000 in their final season at a site halfway between Roswell and downtown Atlanta, though that was before MLS came to the Peach State.
The women’s club is a surer bet. There’s been interest on the part of Arthur Blank in founding an NWSL team, but that rumor has never been hotter a low simmer. By comparison, Super League club could boast equal first-division credentials, a cozier stadium experience, and first-mover brand equity.
Palm Beach
After four appearances on Ellen Degeneres’ show, a guest spot on Oprah, and legendary careers in both modeling and polo, Nacho Figueras became the owner of the USL’s Championship and Super League initiatives in Palm Beach, a city in the broader Miami metro. No date has been announced for a men’s team, and the women’s side will launch no sooner than 2025.
Figueras followed me on Twitter when the club launched, which is a very clear and undeniable sign that he’s locked in. He’s also responsible for this sick family photoshoot:
Standing on horses!
In a more serious sense, Palm Beach is about a 90-minute drive from Miami FC’s venue to the south. It’s delineated as a separate television market from Miami but still ranks in the top 40 by size. Stadium news (i.e., is the club building or sharing?) ought to be forthcoming, but details are light overall.
Oklahoma City
The OKC Energy have been on hiatus since 2021, citing an inability to adhere to stadium standards. There’s a stadium plan in place, and the City of Oklahoma City (not repetitive at all) recently approved the club’s ownership of the venue-site-to-be. Plans are in place for a 10,000-seater that would cost about $70 million.
The renderings of the project featured the usual “hey, this is good enough for MLS!” talk, and MLS NEXT Pro has registered an OKC-specific domain, but there isn’t legitimate smoke to the fire of a potential move as of yet. Time will tell if and when the Energy hit the pitch again.
If you want an argument for this club, the logic hasn’t changed since its inception in 2013. Oklahoma City is a natural partner for Tulsa, and it’s somehow the westernmost team on the expansion slate; that matters for the conference alignments. The market is big enough to warrant an NBA franchise, and it’s in the top half of the 10 pending Championship sites by population.
Other Notes
Indications are that the conversion of the now-deceased Austin Bold into a Dallas-Fort Worth club won’t come to fruition.
My own intel here: per sources, at least two USL League One clubs are expected to announce moves up to the USL Championship in the near future. North Carolina FC carved that path for 2024, and they won’t be alone in doing so.
Possible Formats
How could a 34-team USL align itself? There aren’t easy answers in terms of a geographic split. You’re likely looking at 17-team divisions with New Orleans and Northwest Arkansas lumped in with Orange County and Oakland. Still, that would set up 32 matches of home-and-home play along within the conference with a handful of inter-conference and/or Jagermeister Cup games.
I’d prefer a West-Central-East tripartite division, though that isn’t perfect either; the Pacific clubs are so isolated. In any event, both putative conference set-ups are mapped out above.
A league split could also be on the cards. The possibility was thrown around during last year’s promotion and relegation discussions and would probably see 20 Championship teams break off into a “USL Premier.” You’d then have a top level with the best-run clubs (e.g., LouCity, Tampa Bay), those with finished stadiums (e.g., Colorado Springs), and the clubs with the most branding and media value (e.g., Las Vegas, Miami).
Beneath, there’d be a middle tier with 14ish teams from the get-go. USSF standards require a second division to eventually hit 12 clubs across two or more time zones, all with 5,000-seat venues. That’s simple to accomplish, and those standards drive the USL’s current expansion philosophy. Finally, there’d be the third rung: a burgeoning and growing League One. For specifics, see this expansion progress tracker from the inimitable Alex Ashton at USL League One Updater.
Could a “USL Premier” apply for first-division status? It’s not impossible but not immediately likely. Top-tier leagues must have 14 teams across three time zones, which is eminently doable. The issue is the 15,000-seat stadium requirement, which only Birmingham and Miami meet in the current USL Championship. That limitation throws a wrench in the entire equation.
Still, that’s all speculative, and there’s the reality that at least half of the 10 USL Championship expansion probably won’t get off the ground any time soon, if at all. Despite the inevitable hang-ups, there’s clearly growth potential in spades across the lower leagues.
Seems like there are rumblings in suburban NOLA (Jefferson Parish) about renovating the Shrine on Airline, a former MiLB park. While they haven't officially hitched USL NOLA to that wagon, the Parish government seems to think it's a strong enough possibility to use it as justification to splash cash. These discussions were all back in November, nothing since.
There should be emphasis that owning or having priority, or better yet, exclusive access to a soccer specific stadium (SSS) --and fast!-- is absolutely necessary for any of these or future USL Championship expansions. It is NOT enough to have a team that is allowed to play in a local college's stadium. This is for at least three main reasons: (i) SSS allows multiple revenue streams beyond selling tickets. These extra streams include "naming rights/ sponsorships", advertising on side-lines & throughout the stadium, renting out for Lax or field hockey or concerts or for numerous other club events/playoffs. (ii) The SSS also cements public-private partnerships & rallys community & political support. (iii) Last, but not least, the established SSS is a fortress against future MLS incursions. Indy 11 is a prime example of not building their SSS fast enough, so that it left an opening that MLS is now trying to breach!