League One vibe check, spring edition
Ranking contenders and assessing key tactical themes for every team in League One
It’s a weird, fun year in USL League One.
The format is different enough this season because of the introduction of the Jagermeister Cup. Early scheduling troubles are making the effect even more pronounced. Greenville tops the table with 13 points from seven games; Chattanooga has only played three times in the league.
Still, we’ve got enough of a sample size to start drawing conclusions about all 12 clubs. In what will become a quarterly or triannual1 series, let’s check the vibes in USL League One. Who’s for real in the title race, and who’s lagging behind?
Note: this ended up being really long, so Fuego got cut off in the email version. Click the prompt to get too many words about Shavon John-Brown!
The “Legit Contender” Tier
1.) Union Omaha
Even though they’re riding back-to-back losses against Sporting Kansas City in the Open Cup and the Spokane Velocity in Jagermeister play, Union Omaha still feel like my title favorite. They’ve got the third-best xG margin in League One at +0.32 per match, and they’ve continued to integrate exciting new players as the season has gone on.
Brandon Knapp has essentially only played in cups, but he’s a solid central midfield option. Adam Aoumaich has mostly been a sub but brings self-starting verve on the wing. Zeiko Lewis is a familiar name to Championship fans for his excellence as a No. 10.
All three players could potentially make a difference, but Missael Rodriguez is the most visible breakout of 2024 so far. On loan from the Chicago Fire, he nabbed a brace against Northern Colorado a few weeks back, scored again against Tormenta more recently, and is emblematic of Omaha’s offensive variety.
Take the example here. This is a late-game scenario with Rodriguez and Lewis as the forward pair and Knapp as the third man in a midfield trio within Omaha 3-5-2. Because Knapp takes a position up towards the Tormenta back three, he creates a parity that challenges the defense.
Omaha works cleanly from back to front, overwhelms Tormenta, and finds a sweet ball in behind to Rodriguez for the finish. It’s as clean and controlled as you like, and it highlights Rodriguez’s wonderful movement and well-applied speed.
This club has seven different scorers in the league already, and no single player has more than eight shot attempts. They’re spreading the love and making the extra pass to great effect.
A week after the Rodriguez goal in the 4-2 win over South Georgia, Casciato moved into a 4-4-2, reminiscent of the prevailing style from 2023. Though the Nebraskans lost, that ability to change things up and fit different pieces into the lineup is key. Omaha is deep, Omaha is flexible, and Omaha feels like the favorite in League One.
2.) Greenville Triumph
Lyam MacKinnon is good good. If you put him up against all other attackers in League One, he’s in the 97th percentile for xG, the 98th for cross attempts, and the 88th for defensive actions. Does he benefit from an occasional wing back-ish deployment in some of those categories? Sure. Does that lessen what the budding superstar is doing? Of course not.
The Triumph have played more games than anyone else in the division, but they’re in first place for a reason. They’ve got the most potent attack in the league at 1.8 xG per match, and the flexibility innate to their 3-4-1-2 shape leaves them with a match-up edge against the lion’s share of League One.
MacKinnon’s varied skillset pays off the entire system.
You get a few examples of MacKinnon’s attacking contributions above. He’s cutting in from the left channel with perfect timing to ring a shot off the post. He’s popping into the heart of the box to head on a cross from an advancing Tyler Polak. He’s slicing into the box on the dribble, breaking ankles in transition, and making crucial field-stretching runs over the top.
We’re fresh off a game where Jamie Smith led the team in shots from the back line and scored a jaw-dropping banger from 35 yards to get the win. MacKinnon was on the scoresheet, too, but the threat he provides opens up everyone else on the pitch.
Indeed, #9’s roaming, leftward tendencies are a huge activator for the aforementioned Polak, whose deployment is so, so fun. Smith isn’t as adventurous, but he’s still that dude. You see their heatmaps from the Tormenta win in the Jagermeister Cup above.
Pair the offensive quality with principled defending, and you’ve got a Greenville team that’s a real threat.
For more: “Graphic Detail: why Greenville is League One's best”
3.) Forward Madison
I just covered Forward Madison, but I want to take a minute to rhapsodize about Devin Boyce. It’s been a tempestuous four years for the 27-year-old, who won a title with Omaha in 2021, struggled to break into the Championship in Memphis a year later,2 took on a deeper supporting role with Greenville back in League One, and is now talismanic in Wisconsin.
Within the 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 shape Madison rocks, Boyce tends to play on the right-center right, carving between the forward line and attacking midfield. In that context, he’s doing everything for Matt Glaeser.
Like, that’s an outrageous stat line. You want it out of an attacking mid, and the 27-year-old is doing it. Madison hasn’t quite figured out how to turn a star-laden attack up from a trickle of half chances to a flood of goals, but Boyce is filling his part and then some.
Pairing with Stephen Payne on the right side is a boon, of course. Payne himself is a top-ten crosser in League One and has a wonderfully ability to stretch the flank and open up more central creators a la Boyce.
Suffice to say: with this much talent on paper and the results starting to come good, I’m feeling decent about picking Madison as my preseason champion.
4.) Spokane Velocity
When you watch a Spokane game, you’ll be instantly taken by the quality of Luis Gil, Andre Lewis, and the central midfield of Leigh Viedman’s 4-2-3-1. What’s less obvious but every bit as critical is the aggression Veidman gets out of his central defenders.
Often, and especially against double pivots, Spokane will push a midfielder like Lewis up next to Gil to create a 4-1-4-1. In doing so, they make life difficult upfield, but they potentially isolate their No. 6 with too much space to cover to either side.
The solution? League One’s most aggressive center back play.
You get two examples above. In the first, it’s Lewis stepping up to mark the crucial Pedro Dollabella in the Omaha midfield. The guests break the midfield line, but Ahmed Longmire flies up from central defense to close down and deny a turn-and-dribble move from the opposing attacker. The next step is crucial, too: Spokane’s winger gets back in recovery, and Marcelo Lage slides over to cover space behind Longmire.
Similar concept in the second play. There’s a pass attempt into Spokane’s right channel, and Longmire closes down even more doggedly. He drives the receiver into what becomes a four-man trap, and the Velocity regain.
This is Spokane’s identity. The close you down hard, regain possession, and choke you out with lovely passing sequences from there. In the league, the Velocity are getting 16.8 defensive actions per game from their central defenders, tops in the division. They’re doing that while also holding 53% of possession on average, not by sitting back and absorbing.
Positionally, it’s the right-side member of the pivot that steps up in the press and the right-side center back - usually Longmire - that covers space in return. You see Longmire and Lage’s defensive actions from Spokane’s Jagermeister Cup debut above, illustrating that give and take within the defensive line.
It’s conventional wisdom that expansion teams are too frail to last, but Spokane is bucking that trend. Veidman has built a roster smartly composed of League One stars, Championship veterans, and underappreciated ‘tweeners, but it’s clear that the squad was constructed with a smart and modern vision in mind.
The “High Upside” Tier
5.) One Knox
I’m high on One Knox, but last weekend’s chastening 5-1 loss against Northern Colorado - more on that in a minute - was entirely out of character in a way that ought to be concerning.
This team started the year in a 3-4-3 featuring Angelo Kelly-Rosales as a Player of the Month-caliber winger, but when the losses started piling up, Mark McKeever changed things up and moved Knoxville into a 4-3-3. The unifying thread? High pressure, defensive physicality, and success in one-on-one situations whether the possessive profile was shorter or more direct.
No other club in League One is as successful in the air and in duels. Players like Jordan Skelton (28 for 39 on aerial duels) and Sivert Haugli (39 for 59 in all duels) have been rocks at the back.
And yet, Northern Colorado caught Knoxville out by targeting the midfield on restarts and winning possession in front of the back line. Their strategy skirted One Knox’s stoppers and then put them under the gun with high-speed runs and hard-to-stop through balls.
When this team is clicking, their press defines games. Against the Hailstorm, their press couldn’t even get going.
In their best moments, Knoxville have flipped that script and been the first team to second balls. When they’ve got engaged, One Knox has been able to overload opponents in dangerous areas. You see it above: all three forwards in what was mostly a 4-1-2-3 shape get into the area and are aided by the presence of two highly-placed center mids. There’s passing action and flow, and it allows the brilliant Stuart Ritchie to serve in for an assist.
I tend to think of the NoCo games as a fleeting apparition; Knoxville isn’t going to be that sloppy for the rest of 2024. I’m probably too high on this club, in fact, but the potential they’ve shown at times is enough for me, and I think their style is built for tournament soccer.
6.) Northern Colorado Hailstorm
So, the flip side of the 5-1 coin.
Northern Colorado looked completely unreal in Tennessee, and their approach was defined by a few key tactical decisions. For one, their 4-2-3-1 shape shifted into a 4-2-4 in the press, but it wasn’t a typical deployment of that look. Instead, the front line sat off Knoxville’s center backs; striker Ethan Hoard and No. 10 Isidro Martinez man marked the opposing pivot.
You see the shape mapped out above, with Martinez ahead of one central midfielder using his press shadow to deny and Hoard behind his man but staying rather tight. There isn’t a clean way to access the midfield, but Knoxville is hesitant to wantonly spring a long ball into the hart of a compact Hailstorm shape.
So you’ve got the press figured out. What about the attack?
It’s not been a clean ride for Northern Colorado this year. They’ve tried a few variations in their midfield shape, shifted their most important players across a few positions, and hadn’t clicked until last weekend. Bruno Rendon has been a case study: he’s in the 89th percentile of attackers for touches but the relatively modest 65th for xG and still hasn’t created a chance for a teammate in the league.
In the 4-2-3-1 in Tennessee, Rendon moved to the left wing while Noah Powder got the start on the right. Most Hailstorm restarts targeted the left, where Rendon - 6’2” with ample strength and broad shoulders - could battle opponents, force knockdowns, and allow teammates like Haruki Yamazaki to get into the mix to regain.
You see that blueprint in action in the clip, with Hoard also drifting over to help overload the hosts. Once Northern Colorado settles onto the ball, Rendon is gone in a flash, tearing into a seam and using that wonderful athleticism to get into the box to ask questions. The Hailstorm’s second goal started similarly: go long up the left, force a throw, and activate Yamazaki-Rendon action to score.
Eamon Zayed is a very strong tactician, and he pushed all the right buttons on Saturday. Rendon and Powder occupying the attacking wings feels like it ought to be the answer going forward, but I’m excited to see what other variations come to further elevate that duo.
7.) Charlotte Independence
Austin Pack rules. He’s got 2.3 goals saved above expected, tops in League One so far. Having faced 26 shots in the league, he’s given up just four goals. Charlotte can’t decide on a back four or back three and has suffered from injury issues in the midfield, but Pack has kept them afloat.
Juan Carlos Obregon also rocks, and having a striker of his quality was no guarantee for this Independence team a few short weeks ago. Dane Kelly and Khori Bennett departed in the offseason, and Obregon - he of three goals in about 350 league minutes, plus 100th percentile foul drawing amongst forwards - has more than filled their shoes.
The same can’t be said of Tresor Mbuyu and Kharlton Belmar in the supporting spots. Mbuyu ranks in the 30th percentile by my all-encompassing Goals Above Replacement metric while generating below-average expected goals and zero total assists. Belmar doesn’t have enough minutes in the league to responsibly apply the rate stats, but he’s totaled one single shot and no cross attempts across five appearances.
Here, you see a map of Mbuyu and Belmar’s touches in the recent loss against Madison. For the wingers in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 concept, that’s…not great!
Now, this team has been more coherent in a tilted 5-2-3 of sorts, one with Joel Johnson as attack-first a wing back as you can draw up. Clay Dimick has really impressed as the defender covering space behind him on that side.
Even so, pair a leaky defense being patched over by god-mode Austin Pack with an attacking corps that doesn’t have the right pieces, and it’s a worrying mix for the Independence.
8.) Richmond Kickers
Who’s got the second-best xG defense in League One? None other than the Richmond Kickers, who are conceding just 0.96 expected goals a game. Given that Richmond has allowed 12 goals in six matches in actuality, there might be a question or two to ask in net, but the Kickers’ underlying numbers hint at a leap up the table yet to come.
The defensive quality isn’t necessarily obvious on the stat sheet. Some defenses awe you on sheer volume: lots of tackles and interceptions are easy on the eyes. Richmond is more focused on control and danger avoidance.
Zaca Moran Correa rates in just the 21st percentile for defensive actions amongst midfielders. Dakota Barnathan is in the 17th percentile in central defense. Their positioning has been brilliant all the while, and 17-year-old Griffin Garnett is emerging as a superstar as both a high-volume distributor from back and a 6’2” stopper good for the most clearances and tackle wins of any Kicker.
Part of the lack of action at the back derives from Richmond’s ability to choke teams out in possession - they’re keeping 54% of the ball on average. Not to make this another “Nil Vinyals is the best player in League One” segment, but…well…Nil Vinyals is the best player in League One, and ball circulation with the Spaniard at the core is definitional for this club.
You get a couple examples of the Kickers turning control into chances in the clips. Each move start withs #10 circling in the center-left and drawing the attention of most of the opposing defense. When Vinyals - the top man in League One by American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added metric - spots a window, he connects with the dual right-side motion of Adrian Billhardt and Simon Fitch while striker Arthur Bosua cuts net-wards.
It’s lovely possessive soccer, and these are sequences from a second half in Chattanooga that Richmond pretty much dominated. This team feels like they’re improving a bit more each time out, and they’re (probably? please?) getting the legendary Emiliano Terzaghi back at some point soon.
The “Dark Horse and/or Also-Ran” Tier
9.) Lexington SC
Beating a dead horse is kind of my thing, and that’s probably an appropriate metaphor for my Lexington talk this season. On paper, this squad has the talent to go up against anybody in League One and come off the winner. In execution, Lexington have lacked the vivacity in possession to do the job.
That discrepancy is especially apparent in the midfield.
For most players in supporting passing roles, there’s a trade-off to make: you’re going to be progressive and vertical or safe and sideways. The best teams have midfielders that can do both things at the same time. Increasingly, Lexington has that in the form of Yannick Yankam.
The problem? No one else is doing that job.
Now, the Jagermeister Cup two-pointer over a Central Valley team that was down a man from 5’ onwards maybe wasn’t great, but it did highlight a new variant for Lexington.
This club uses a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1, give or take. Versus Fuego, Pierre Mane and Abel Captuo combined to dominate the game by setting the tempo as short passers in the pivot. Ahead of them, Ates Diouf - last year’s breakout star as a scorer - did classic No. 10 things sans Yankam.
I’m not gonna tell you Diouf is Kevin De Bruyne reborn, but he played more than a few very nice progressive passes on the drop and at least made himself known in zone 14. His ability to slice through the guests on the counter was definitional; #32 earned the go-ahead penalty and got a goal of his own shortly thereafter to put his side up by two.
Tangent while we’re here: Azaad Liadi has put up 25% more G+ on the dribble than any other player in League One, per American Soccer Analysis. That’s over-weighted by the fact that Liadi is making moves in the box rather than in deep positions, but still!
In any event, it feels like Lexington is slowly making the changes they need to improve their attack, and their ferocity on the counter over the weekend was a definite step forward. Things to figure out from back to front for sure, but Darren Powell’s getting there.
10.) South Georgia Tormenta
Sometimes, Tormenta rips off an offensive sequence that makes you fully buy into their new-ish back three. Conor Doyle cooks in the central midfield, the threat of wingers like Ajmeer Spengler draws defensive eyes, and suddenly you’ve got a lane into a wide runner.
That’s the formula in the clip here, culminating in a gorgeous through ball to Jackson Khoury on the overlap from the left wing back spot. Doyle threads in #11, Tormenta gets a cross into a fairly free header, and it ought to be a 3-2 lead.
Instead, the header goes wide. Minutes later, Joshua Ramos - the wing back opposite Khoury in last weekend’s Jagermeister Cup match - got isolated in the defensive zone, resulting in a winning penalty for the Triumph. Back three giveth, back three taketh away.
Across all formational iterations in 2024, this club is conceding 1.6 xG per match, third-from-bottom in League One. Blame a lack of heft in the pivot, blame shape changes, but something’s amiss.
You can see the issue from the Greenville game. The Triumph’s heatmap illustrates an all-too-lethal tendency for their wide players to find touches in prime crossing areas. There’s a blot of action in the box, too, corresponding to the exact spot where Ramos was beaten and the penalty ensued.
I’m branding this exercise as a “vibe check,” and I love Tormenta on paper. Ultimately, a five-match winless streak and an active three-game losing run across all competitions means that I need to keep this team in the bottom chunk of the division for now.
11.) Chattanooga Red Wolves
Trying to get a sense for Chattanooga is more difficult than any other team in the division, given that they’ve only played three times in League One because of stadium improvements that resulted in a few postponements. Having earned four points in the league, the Red Wolves have a positive goal difference but are deeply underwater in xG terms because of defensive inconsistency.
If improvement comes, Declan Watters will be a crucial part of it. Watters and Ualefi have often paired in the defensive midfield of a 4-2-3-1 under Scott MacKenzie this season, though there have been bouts of a back three at times.
Within the pivot, Ualefi has a specific role. He’s an efficient stopper (see a 91st percentile defensive action-to-foul ratio) and safer passer. That leaves room for Watters, a player with ample experience in central defense, to get creative and inject life into the center of the Chattanooga park.
In the Jagermeister Cup last weekend, we saw a preview of what that role could look like, and it started with the long ball. You see #4 show to the right back as an outlet, thereby forcing a defender to hedge centrally and opening a window down the sideline. Ricky Ruiz receives in that context, and Watters cuts upfield to make himself available once more.
Watters gets a touch, Ruiz bursts upfield with the defense out of shape, and it’s an unconventional but potentially lethal give-and-go.
The second clip is a variation on the theme. Leo Folla possesses at the center back spot, and #4 dances around him. That buys just enough room for Folla to find a passing angle, which he uses to try and hit Ropapa Mensah streaking over the defense far upfield. It’s route one, yes, but there’s a sense of intention and design.
Chattanooga is an unapologetic long ball team, averaging a pass length a full yard longer than anyone else in the division. They want players like Folla, Watters, and Gustavo Fernandes playing those passes rather than TJ Bush in net; the Red Wolves are “only” third in goalkeeper long passing rate and first in outfielder long passing rate by a comfortable margin.
Given some injury troubles and a largely overhauled squad, this team still deserves some leeway. I was very high on Chattanooga this winter, and while the execution looks different than how I imagined it on paper, no team in League One has a longer runway to get it right from hereon out.
12.) Central Valley Fuego
Remember when Shavon John-Brown was part of the El Paso Locomotive? Probably not! Now, the winger is ripping it up with Central Valley Fuego.
This team is still frustrating, don’t get me wrong. They’ve lost five out of six games in the league with a minus-eight goal difference in a season that was supposed to be a revival under Jermaine Jones’ fresh vision. Still, Central Valley is above water in terms of expected goal difference, and the potential innate to a midfield trio of Heckenberg, Coronado, and Carrera-Garcia is worth paying attention to.
Fuego is much less than direct that you might expect: they’re seventh in average passing distance (below seven yards) and go long on less than half of their touches in goal. John-Brown’s ability to stretch the pitch is so valuable because it’s an exception to the rule.
This year, the winger is a top four interrupter and top ten receiver in USL League One per American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added data. That speaks to two things:
John-Brown has the speed to get touches over the top in dangerous areas, as seen in his direct-from-the-back reception and goal against Omaha in March.
John-Brown is often the beneficiary of whole-team pressure out of a 4-1-4-1 shape in which aggressive trapping leads to turnovers at the right sideline.
Central Valley’s nagging tendency to lose their head, collapse when a trap is close to paying off, and flail in front of net explains why they look so feckless in the table. Still, they aren’t the pushover of the last few seasons.
Don’t fact check if this is the correct “three times a year” word.
Pre-Aaron Molloy Memphis, what a world! I’ll go to war for Dre Fortune as a solid midfielder, if you’ll let me reminisce on old mid-table teams for a minute.