The Back Four: Playoff odds, Wynder, and more
Tactics, stats, and other developments that defined the week for Louisville, Tampa Bay, Madison, and Sacramento
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be. Now, let’s get to it.
Elijah Wynder on the rise
Last week was eventful for Louisville City on a few fronts. The club nearly upset the Seattle Sounders on the road in the Open Cup, trounced Orange County SC at home, and - most crucially - extended midfielder Elijah Wynder on a multi-season deal.
At 21 years old, Wynder is taking a leap into elite status in 2024. Within Danny Cruz’s 3-4-3, the midfielder tends to be the left-sided man in the double pivot, but that deployment isn’t set stone. His role isn’t that of a classic No. 6, either; Wynder does everything.
By American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added numbers, Wynder has been a +0.10 passer, +0.12 receiver, and +0.13 shooter. Out of almost 500 eligible players in the USL, only Ray Serrano and (very oddly) defender Joey Farrell surpass those marks. Additionally, the Kentucky native rates in the 87th percentile of all midfielders in terms of his tackle win rate and the 64th by defensive actions per game. He’s voluminous and efficient without the ball, underpinning LouCity’s entire counterpressing system.
The numbers are impressive, but how does Wynder execute in practice? You see the recently-extended #23 drop low for a touch above, helping Louisville to maintain their control at the halfway line. This club tilts the pitch like few other USL sides, and Wynder supported that goal admirably in a tough one in Seattle.
With the opposition pushing up, Wynder slides wide of a defender’s press shadow to make himself available as a receiver. The 21-year-old’s run forces a winger to close narrow, thereby opening a lane on the right side. It’s an easy-looking and subtle sequence for Wynder, but his movement is calibrated to ask questions of the Sounders.
Wynder receives, first-times a pass to Sean Totsch, and instantly darts toward the sideline to make himself available once more. When he gets the ball back, Louisville has successfully beaten the press, and it’s #23’s movement that gets them there.
From that point, Wynder steps up into space and delivers a lovely cross-field switch to enter the final third.
Wynder gets you into attack, and he does the retentive things to keep you there. LouCity has just given the ball away in the final third above. The ball-side winger is out of position, but defenders Totsch and Aiden McFadden are high upfield and in position to close down. Crucially, Wynder hedges towards the ball in support.
When McFadden lunges in for a tackle, #23 immediately steps in to nab the loose ball. Though Louisville doesn’t regain, Adrien Perez (the right winger) is able to join the fun, thereby driving the Sounders back. With so few easy outlets, Seattle sloppily clears, and Wynder - who smartly stepped back as a safety net when Perez arrived - intercepts.
The cherry on top of the pressing sundae is Wynder’s run from there, which arches over Perez and puts #23 into open space in the box. It’s a testament to the young star’s read on the game in all areas of the pitch.
This is what you get from Elijah Wynder every time out. In that resounding win over Orange County, Wynder made four ball recoveries and collected two interceptions in the opposing half. His passing contributions were critical in tight spaces, and his few incompletions were progressive attempts that would’ve burnt the defense had they come off.
If you want a candidate for a long-term contract in this league, then a 21-year-old midfielder with elite tools is your best bet. Wynder has been unbelievable this season and could be Louisville’s anchor for years to come - if he doesn’t earn a six-figure transfer fee first.
Tampa Bay’s tumble
A few weeks back, the Rowdies took New Mexico United to task on national television (without any softball conflicts!) and edged close to Charleston for the USL’s single best xG margin. It hadn’t been a flawless start to the season, but Tampa Bay seemed to have finally found their footing.
Since then, Robbie Neilson’s team has lost two straight in the league and played an absolutely chaotic 10-goal Open Cup match against Birmingham. Tampa Bay had seemingly settled into a solid 5-3-2 with clever variations embedded into the look, but cracks are showing. What’s gone wrong?
Figuring out the proper set-up in the press has been a test. Against Memphis in a matinee match at the start of May, Tampa Bay went down a man because of a Forrest Lasso red card, but the lead-up to that sending-off was the real culprit.
The start of the play is seen above. 901 keeps two center mids low and drops their No. 10 into the mix. In response, Tampa Bay clamps down with four players in a tight window: forwards Manuel Arteaga and Pacifique Nyongabire are joined by Joshua Perez and Daniel Crisostomo from the midfield.
The problem is instantly evident. The Rowdies’ spacing is completely one-sided, and Memphis works around the overload into acres of space. A few passes later, Lasso ends up under fire and gets his red, but the bad defensive situation started 50 yards upfield.
Same story, different day in the Open Cup. The Rowdies got a win after extra time, but they conceded four goals in the last 10 minutes of regulation. An Arteaga scissor kick saved the day, but this was a borderline calamity.
The late collapse was instigated by a potent duo: (1) little-to-no pressure in the midfield and (2) a back line sitting too high. You see the first flaw mapped out in the screenshot above, with three central midfielders failing to close down on the Legion’s lethal Kobe Hernandez-Foster.
It isn’t a sin to sit off when you’re up two goals past the 90th minute. A conservative midfield that’s focused on denying space is usually the right answer when you’re running down the clock, and Tampa Bay seems to have that mentality.
On a player-by-player basis, you’ve got:
Cristian Ortiz hedging centrally, forcing Birmingham to chip a pass if they want to hit Prosper Kasim in their right channel.
Danie Crisostomo caught in no-man’s land, unable to close because he’s backtracking against an inside run from Enzo Martinez.
Lewis Hilton, standing firm as the No. 6 to deny two central Legion attackers.
No one is committing to the ball carrier, but there’s an explanation for everything that’s going on. Take that set-up and pair it with Tampa Bay’s defensive posture, however, and you’ve got a problem.
Let’s play the same man-for-man game that we did in the midfield:
Aaron Guillen is shading inwards from the left with his eyes fixed on Miguel Perez, a Legion midfielder that’s making a central run.
Forrest Lasso is halfway committed to Tyler Pasher and Perez, but he’s more focused on that Enzo Martinez give-and-go in development.
Jordan Doherty is actively stepping up from the right-sided defensive spot to snuff out Martinez’ move.
Do the math: that’s two players mainly watching the midfield and, charitably, one-ish defenders paying attention to the immediate threat of Pasher and Perez.
You know the rest of the story.
A too-high back line isn’t meshing with a midfield in “late-game, prevent defense” mode. Pasher’s speed is too much for Lasso on the turn, the passing angles are too easy to find, and it’s a goal.
To the full credit of Neilson, he stuck to the script at the weekend for a rematch with Birmingham, and it turned out supremely well on paper. Tampa Bay gave up just 0.47 xG and allowed one shot attempt in the entire first half. Because soccer is both dumb and bad, the Rowdies still lost 1-0.
If Tampa Bay has an issue, it’s that their few errors tend to be especially calamitous. Is that just random chance? Maybe. Some would argue that a stodgy, physical Forrest Lasso creates that effect, but Lasso is also a top-ten USL center back by defensive actions and an 83% winner on aerial duels. No one else in the league has his level of responsibility nor handles their role at such a high level.
Sometimes, you’re just in a funk, and that’s it for the Rowdies. Whether the issues are deeper-rooted or not will become evident against a direct FC Tulsa and talent-laden FC Dallas next week.
Forward, backwards?
Few teams are as idiosyncratic as Forward Madison. In their season opener, they took Tormenta to the cleaners in an xG rout, but the match ended in a 1-1 draw. Incongruous results have carried on from March to May.
Madison has been underwater by the advanced metrics in the majority of their league games, in fact, yet they haven’t lost in League One. By contrast, they dominated long stretches against Lexington in their Jagermeister Cup opener, went up by two men, and somehow ended up with a loss.
This weekend’s win over Charlotte in the Jagermeister group stage was an effective display of Madison’s style and their most normal game so far. For all the ups and downs, this team has stuck to their principles: they use a back three shape, they emphasize attacking width, and they aren’t afraid of vertical runs involving multiple lines of players.
When things are going right, Madison’s entire unit is moving in concert. The example above is a prototypical attacking move, one that starts at the back with Michael Chilaka. When the right-sided defender in Madison’s attacking 3-4-3 (or 3-5-2; shapes are fluid and descriptive) plays upfield, note who’s coming low to receive: it’s Agustin Davila, a forward masquerading as a third central midfielder.
The run from Davila has a few knock-on effects. Against Lexington’s 4-4-2, the run draws attention from both central midfielders and a winger, opening a sideways pass into space. Given the defensive focus on the midfield, the run also leaves Devin Boyce and since Lexington is hedging against the run.
The result of it all? A switch into wing back Stephen Payne on the overlap, a cross into fellow wing back (and/or wide forward) Derek Gebhard, and a chance that should’ve made it 1-0.
This is Forward Madison in their bag. There’s flow between the opposing lines and a sense of fill-and-replace structure with the ball. Because of the control in the center of the park, the wide weapons are able to advance and punish the defense.
Contrast that to this defensive sequence in a win against table-topping Greenville. Matt Glaeser’s unit is in a high 3-4-3 press, pushing Gebhard and Boyce high against the Triumph’s back three.
When the guests pass wide toward the sideline, Payne and central midfielder Aiden Mesias hedge to close down, but their timing is discordant. Mesias sees the problem and curls his closing run backwards to recover, but he’s isolated with his momentum heading in the wrong direction.
It’s a broken defensive sequence by the time #10 is turned over, and the Triumph have time to switch play into acres of open room downfield over Wolfgang Prentice at the left wing back spot.
Fluidity give, fluidity taketh away. The “let a forward roam around a bit” dynamic powered the chance against Lexington, but it weakened the press and set off a domino effect in the play from the Triumph win.
Still, I won’t quit this team for a reason: the good greatly outweighs the bad. Madison’s opening goal at Charlotte on Saturday was a prime example of this team at their most technical and fun.
Right away, you’ll notice that Prentice is the furthest player upfield, which is an insane thing to say about a wing back in an innocuous spell of possession. Because Prentice is so far ahead, left-sided center back Jake Crull has the space to advance high.
Meanwhile, take note of Boyce, marked in pink as the third forward in an ostensible 3-4-3. Boyce has been a ‘tweener all season long, not a striker but more elevated than a normal midfielder. When Crull gets his touch, Boyce starts to sidle up toward the box.
Crull carries forward, linking with teammates to end up in the 18-yard area. Meanwhile, Boyce loops to make himself available for a cutback. It’s a flurry of quick passes and quick-thinking runs that challenge the Independence, all of which allow Crull to earn an assist to an assured Christian Chaney.
As I noted up top, Madison wants to play with width and use interchange between lines to earn chances. Could you draw up a better example than this goal? It won’t always be perfect given the risk-taking innate to the Glaeser system, but Forward Madison has the strategy and talent to make noise at the top of the League One table.
Nick Ross and solid Sacramento
I’ve been unfairly mild in my praise for Sacramento this season, even though they’ve doubled any other Western team’s goal difference, boast the third-best xG defense (1.08 allowed per match) in the USL, and sit in first place.
If you ask me, the Republic are the comfortable #1 side in their conference, but it’s an open question whether they’re at the level of the best teams in the East. Sacramento is undefeated in 10 games, but they aren’t blowing opponents out. Indeed, they’ve scored more than two goals in just one match, a late-breaking win against Loudoun.
Still, the usual suspects have been as great as ever. Rodrigo Lopez (my MVP vote-getter in 2022) and Jack Gurr (my MVP vote in 2023) are both in the top quarter of their position groups for expected assists. They’ve contributed to six goals as a pair.
Russell Cicerone is somehow flying under the radar with “only” two goals to date, but the work he’s doing off the ball and in combination with Gurr remains exceptional. Trevor Amann is getting goals - six so far, including a beauty of a header against Rhode Island on Saturday - and looks like a top two or three striker in the USL.
What’s less sexy is the brilliance of Nick Ross in the pivot. Amidst lineup rotation, experiments with an adjusted 3-5-2 shape, and the quiet release of fellow center mid Arnold Lopez, the 32-year-old Ross has been exceptionally solid. He’s taking touches and completing passes at 91st percentile clips, and he’s got two assists to his name. The quiet execution Ross provides keeps Sacramento ticking.
Though the Scotsman is more than happy to set the tempo in service of flashier teammates, Ross has shown a real penchant for incisive build-up passing in 2024. That aspect of his game was on show against Rhode Island over the weekend.
You get two examples above with Sacramento on the comeback trail. By this stage, the Republic had gone wild with changes. Damia Viader entered on the left wing after halftime to spice things up. The 3-5-2 recurred with Kieran Philips up top and Rafael Jauregui in the midfield shortly thereafter. Juan Sebastian Herrera even got his season debut when the Republic shifted into a last-ditch back four.
Ross stood out amidst it all. In the clip, he sits above the two center backs to play quarterback. The first play sees #19 sit in front of Rhode Island’s low-block 4-2-3-1 and deliver a driven peach of a pass directly into the heart of the pivot, where Jauregui awaits. The move doesn’t quite come off, but Ross’ entry ball is sublime.
The second play is an incompletion, yes, but the knock-on effect of the progressive attempt was crucial. To start, Ross notices Jauregui dropping into the channel and expects Gurr to bomb over top of him, but the run never comes. Still, the hosts are lackadaisical in pursuit of the errant pass, and pressure comes to force a throw.
Nothing going, right? Not so. The ensuing cycle of dead-ball plays ultimately leads to Jonathan Ricketts’ equalizer, but it begins with Ross’ brightness and situational awareness.
Ross has been equally influential while paired with Luis Felipe in the defensive pivot. In the instance above, Sacramento is a man up against FC Tulsa’s shorthanded 4-4-1, but a sloppy switch gives the guests a chance to counter via speedy winger Milo Yosef.
Yosef receives in the channel, and his first touch is admittedly a bit errant, but look at Ross’ read from the moment the switch is hit to the second he dispossesses the ball carrier. He steps up to intervene as soon as he smells danger, and he stops on a dime for the tackle when Yosef stutters The poke away from #19 is wonderfully precise, directly playing Cicerone in to spark a shot-creating sequence.
I could praise Sacramento in a million ways, waxing poetic about Lee Desmond’s emergence on the left, the continued brilliance of Conor Donovan, or a recruitment strategy that makes exceptional use of League One. Nick Ross’ contributions don’t always stand out in a team with ample star power, but Ross goes a long way in making the Republic the West’s best team.
Playoff Odds Update
I haven’t refreshed the playoff odds machine in a hot minute, so here’s a look at the East, West, and League One. As a reminder, eight out of 12 teams make the cut in every division this year.
Charleston’s number may look inflated, but you must remember that (1) they rock and (2) their use of a short rotation inflates my model’s player-centric grading. Louisville isn’t even that far behind, mind you. My numbers are always in love with Monterey, and that finally feels right this year, though I could see an argument that they’re overhyped.
In the “too low” category, I would bump Pittsburgh up, and I’m more bullish than the model on Memphis out West. Orange County feels disrespected, but that’s explicable given the number of injuries they’ve suffered and the number of new-in-2024 signings they’ve got.
I’m on the record about Charlotte being semi-fraudulent, but the League One model says otherwise. Go off, Austin Pack. Elsewhere, Greenville is much, much, much too low. Richmond would be better if they were healthier and/or less aggressively young, and…well…maybe next year for Jermaine Jones and Central Valley.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for a breakdown of Memphis’ draw at Monterey? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
Some other stray items on my mind…
Jesse Marsch taking over the Canadian men’s national team is the best timeline.
I feel like I just complained about the schedule, but Championship matches on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday feel cruel and unusual.
Hacks on HBO is the best thing on television right now (or streaming, whatever). My barometer for a good comedy is if something makes me laugh out loud even when I’m watching it alone, and Hacks hits that mark about half a dozen times every week.
While I’m on the topics, check out Vamos Morados for all things LouCity and All is Quail for top-notch Sacramento coverage.
See you soon!