League One vibe check, fall edition

Assessing all 12 USL League One clubs ahead of the season’s final stretch

We’re finally at the business end of the USL League One season. The Jagermeister Cup Final is mere days away, and no club has more than five league matches left. Seven of the eight playoff spots seem to be sewn up, and the race for the final position is messy and fascinating in equal measure.

Who’s trending up and down as we hit the home stretch, and what’s catching my eye on the tactical front? Let’s dig in.

1.) Northern Colorado Hailstorm

At the end of the day, I think Northern Colorado is going to win this whole thing. I’ve praised their counterattack by highlighting Bruno Rendon and Real Gill. I’ve praised their deceptive strength in possession with Jackson Dietrich drifting left and Isidro Martinez between the lines. What I haven’t discussed enough is their defense.

Northern Colorado isn’t your classic “sit back and defend” sort of club. They’ve allowed a shockingly low xG total in non-break, non-set piece situations because of an unabashedly direct style and a fearsome counterpress that keeps NoCo on the front foot.

The Hailstorm turn attacking-minded play into defensive success by preventing their opponents from controlling matches. A 1-0 win in a late July fixture against Forward Madison - this team’s Jagermeister Cup Final opponent on Saturday - was evidence of the fact. NoCo scored in the second minute back then, following up the early goal with 88 minutes of shapely defending. They ended up with just 35% of possession in that match but quadrupled Madison in terms of shots on target.

That the Hailstorm get the second-most defensive actions per 90 minutes from their attackers is a major reason why that sort of success has been a constant. NoCo doesn’t allow their opponents to get out on the counter, and they’re very good about recovering into a stable shape when breaks happen.

We talked to Eamon Zayed about his principles on The USL Show this week, and he discussed a “3+1” strategy in defensive recovery. Zayed wants the Hailstorm to keep three players - two center backs and at least one center mid - deep at all times as a safety net, joined by either the other center mid or a low full back. The same balance applies up top (in “5+1” form), and it allows NoCo to go all out upfield without sacrificing their defensive surety.

You see an example above. The two center backs are low, as is defensive midfielder Enock Kwakwa. In this case, the opposition started their break down the Hailstorm’s left side and had drawn left back Haruki Yamazaki high to close down. Thus, McCain Clarke - playing right back here - has tucked deep as that “+1” piece to keep things steady.

Clarke is barely 20 years old, and he’s not a regular in the team. When he plays, it’s often as an attacker. NoCo is so well-drilled that even their depth pieces are intelligent enough to execute on the basic principles.

The starters that stabilize the back line and service the Hailstorm system deserve their credit. Defenders like David Garcia (5.1 duels won per game, 48.9 passes completed per game) serve as play-starters on the ball and stoppers alike. Midfielders like Jackson Dietrich are always timely in their low rotations. Lalo Delgado hasn’t been credit with an error leading to a goal in league play and completed his long balls at an 80th percentile clip.

This weekend’s draw against Chattanooga looked tepid on paper but was actually a 3.6 to 0.4 rout on xG terms. That’s par for the course for the Hailstorm, and it’s why they’re looking fearsome ahead of Saturday’s big game.

2.) Forward Madison

Madison comes into the Jagermeister Cup Final unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions and in the midst of a three-match league winning streak. Ironically, their most recent loss came in July against the very Hailstorm side they’re set to face this Saturday.

The reverse fixture was decided by a goal in the second minute, as mentioned above, but it wasn’t without its positives for Madison. Devin Boyce was particularly strong as a creative presence between the lines the last time these clubs met.

Boyce got a whopping 76 touches and tried 13 crosses(!) in the reverse fixture, and his interchange as a tucked-in winger in a the Madison front three gave Northern Colorado trouble. You see Boyce make a clever run above, tripling up into the half space as the wing backs maintain width. Boyce loves to make those runs in deeper and more interior spaces to cause trouble, and it lets this team tick.

When Forward Madison is at their best, they can flow freely, draw defenses tight, and then spread you out via Wolfgang Prentice and Stephen Payne. That aggression requires a sense of balance down the middle, and John Murphy allows them to do so with his do-it-all excellence in the pivot.

I focus a lot on the Madison back three, but Murphy - who scored a banging goal this past weekend in an easy win against Spokane - is putting up a 90th tackle win rate, 85th percentile shot volume, and 100th percentile foul drawing. He’s efficient, impossible to dispossess, and able to get box-to-box. If Murphy comes up big against the Hailstorm, it’ll go a long way to disrupting their rhythm and giving Madison a solid shot at lifting some silverware.

(Also: the Madison alternate kits look so good in practice. The choice to go with black shorts and pink socks is lovely. No, I’m not just saying this because they sent me one.)

3.) Union Omaha

Union Omaha is deceptively varied in possession, and they’re able to go direct if a game requires it. They actually play long balls at the third-highest clip in League One, and in Steevan Dos Santos (54 for 92 on aerial duels this year) and Pedro Dolabella (39 for 63), they have the pieces in advanced positions that can moor their offense in the final third.

Once Omaha settles into the attack, they’re difficult to displace. This is a team that’s efficient at working the ball from side to side and engaging their wing backs as offensive weapons.

Even the most composed offenses can go stale, however, without a bit of chaos and inspiration. Lagos Kunga brings it for Union Omaha.

This graphic is covering Alfredo Midence, who’s 0.1 dribbles per game behind Kunga but a bit less successful on a rate basis.

Among players with starting-level minutes this year, Kunga is the leading dribbler with 3.7 successful take-ons per match. He went three-for-four in a win against Knoxville over the weekend, following up on an identical return against NoCo a week prior. The 25-year-old is incredibly good at beating defenders anywhere on the pitch.

Against the Knoxville back three, Kunga found room to shoot in the 17th minute by receiving in the right channel, splitting between two closing defenders, juking a center mid, and then engaging in a give-and-go to finally find a shooting angle. To put it simply: Kunga took out four defenders in a matter of seconds. For most players, trying something that daring would be selfish. Kunga has the talent to pay off his chutzpah.

In the Hailstorm win, #70 picked up a brace in a monkey-off-the-back performance against Omaha’s bogey team. Kunga’s winning goal began in the left half space this time, and it saw him dribble rightward past the entire Hailstorm back line to softly left-foot a finish across the face of goal. It’s that sort of magic that can make Union Omaha a more complete threat come playoff time.

4.) One Knoxville

One Knox is the best defensive team in USL League One, bar none. They’ve allowed more than 1.0 xG just twice in their last 10 regular season matches, and they won both of those ostensibly subpar games. Manager Ilija Ilic has elevated what was already a stout side into a full-blown juggernaut in the defensive third.

Over the course of 2024, Knoxville has conceded just 19 times in 25 matches. Sean Lewis has allowed 0.7 more goals than you’d expect on paper - a vanishingly small total on a per-match basis - but he’s also put up a positive mark against the fast break in higher-leverage situations. Frankly, Lewis hasn’t been asked to stand on his head because of the structural integrity of squad in front of him.

I highlighted Jordan Skelton as my Defender of the Year pick a week ago, and his relationship with Dani Fernandez and Jalen Crisler in the Knoxville back three is definitional for this defense. If you map League One central defenders on the axis of passive interventions (i.e., clearances and blocks) and active ones (i.e., tackles and interceptions), the balance becomes clear.

Skelton stays home and cleans up, giving him one of the league’s most extreme residuals against trend. His peers are closer to normal, but both register as more “active” presences, and that’s by design.

Still, This weekend’s loss against Omaha was a reminder of Knoxville’s limitations. They certainly didn’t bleed opportunities, but One Knox found it difficult to clear their lines and eventually succumbed to the opposing pressure. Upfield, the lack of a No. 10 linking type in the Zarokostas-Tekiela-Ballard forward line made it difficult to punish Omaha in space.

Still, defense wins championships in League One. Knoxville is built for playoff soccer and has the tools to make noise.

5.) Greenville Triumph

Greenville seems to be trending up against after a rollercoaster of a summer that saw them go through an extended goal drought. Leo Castro’s return has a lot to do with the improvements, and the forward’s underrated ability to sit low relative to a speedier partner is a massive boon for the Triumph. Castro and Zion Scarlett have fast become a top duo in League One.

It’s Greenville’s defense that fascinates me these days, especially in the way the forward pair meshes with the Triumph midfield. This team has allowed 4.7 xG in the run of play since the end of August, a good-not-great mark that illustrates the ups and downs for this side.

The sequence flip-booked out above is illustrative of Greenville’s pristine defensive rotations when they’re working. You see a play against Chattanooga build broken down into four key moments:

1. Greenville starts in a 4-4-2, moving both forwards over and dropping one center mid to trap the Red Wolves against the sideline.

2. Chattanooga passes into a pocket in the channel, so left back Tyler Polak and that deep center mid, Carlos Anguiano, step up.

3. The Red Wolves are forced to move to their left, so winger Hayden Anderson and Anguiano rotate up and over as an answer. Matching Polak from earlier, the right back lurks in support.

4. Chattanooga is forced to reset entirely. The Triumph shape re-forms into a 4-1-4-1 with Zion Scarlett sitting lower.

When that structure is working, the Triumph are a nuisance to play against. Greenville can be very good about forcing opponents into risky and disadvantageous passes.

There are still moments where Greenville can get in trouble - their second concession against Central Valley on Saturday was full of lunging challenges and overreactions in block.

Still, Rick Wright’s team remains a contender because such situations are the exception that prove the rule. If Lyam MacKinnon keeps scoring, the Castro-Scarlett pair stays hot, and the defense sticks to their principles, the Triumph will be a title threat.

6.) Charlotte Independence

Early in the 2024 season, the Charlotte Independence felt unmoored. Their midfield lacked integrity, they gave the ball away too easily, and opponents took advantage to pepper Austin Pack with shots.

Pack’s solidity kept the Independence afloat and allowed them to find their level. Since then, Juan Obregon has emerged as an elite scorer as performances have become more consistent.

Omar Ciss, the central midfielder between the two poles at either end of the pitch, is the major reason why Charlotte has caught up to the pace. Ciss didn’t go a full 90 minutes in the league until May 4th because of injuries, and the Independence are leaps and bounds better with the 23-year-old holding things down in the pivot.

What you see is Ciss constantly seeking out the ball, making himself available so that Charlotte can keep their tempo up and ask questions in the offensive half. #6 isn’t really looking to create, but he’s giving every one of his teammates an enhanced ability to do so. That table-setting belies Ciss’ sneaky good switching (see 3.0 completed long balls per match) and his astonishing 79% tackle win rate.

Charlotte won’t possess you to death. They’re last in League One with a 45% possession rate. Still, they aren’t afraid to keep the ball on the ground when they hit the final third. It’s a delicate balance to strike, and Omar Ciss makes it happen.

7.) Spokane Velocity

Sitting in seventh place with a relatively assured postseason spot, Spokane is positioned to be a dark horse come playoff time. Their solidified 3-4-3 system is enough to make them a fascinating proposition even if they haven’t hit Omaha-level heights.

System changes are important, and Leigh Veidman deserves credit for the club’s rebound after a slight summer lull. What’s gone under the radar is how terrific Brooks Thompson has been in net since taking over the starting job in July.

Still only 22 years old, Thompson made his USL debut as a teenager with Swope Park Rangers before bouncing around between the Championship and MLS NEXT Pro. He joined Spokane early this year, and he’s been one of the best shot stoppers in League One since the summer.

You can see the statistical comparison before and after the change went into place. Both Thompson and day-one starter Carlos Merancio Valdez struggled immensely during the opening months of the season. Since then, Thompson has been elite and has kept this club in the mix.

If there’s a worry going forward, it’s that Luis Gil went down after 30 seconds or so in a rain-delayed game over the weekend. Without him, Spokane only completed two passes from zone 14 into the box and felt a bit rudderless.

Masango Akale’s red card obviously didn’t help the cause (though he did go two-for-four on dribbles) but you could feel the lack of spark between the lines all the while. Gil’s availability - along with Thompson’s ongoing form - are factors to track for Spokane as their expansion season wraps up.

8.) Richmond Kickers

Unlike most organizations in the USL and especially at the League One level, Richmond unabashedly thinks toward the future. That’s not to say they’ve punted on 2024 - it’s quite the opposite, given their rise into playoff contention after a resounding win over the weekend. The Kickers’ ability to balance immediate results with youth development makes them special.

Saturday’s rout against Lexington was a case in point. Among veteran players, two things stood out: the pairing of Ryan Sierakowski and Maxi Schenfeld on the left, and the deployment of Dakota Barnathan in the central midfield rather than as a center back.

Barnathan made the switch in earnest toward the end of August, a move that’s allowed Griffin Garnett to keep earning valuable pro minutes as a teenager in central defense. It’s also allowed Zacarias Moran Correa to play more freely as a No. 8 instead of a defense-first holding mid. Barnathan has only put up modest numbers, but he’s flawless in terms of positioning.

That revitalized central group has allowed other players in the wide areas to grow more expressive. Schenfeld, a left back, and Sierakowski, a winger, captured that dynamic in the 3-0 win against Lexington. They combined to make eight recoveries and create four chances against their guests, and a direct Schenfeld-to-Sierakowski ball eventually set up Richmond’s go-ahead corner.

The rise of that dynamic wing play is an extension of the groundwork 17-year-old Landon Johnson laid in August. The teenaged winger appeared in every game that month, making two starts and picking up a critical assist against Spokane off the bench. He’s got vast potential, and he’s showing it when he’s fit.

As is readily apparent in the highlight reel, Johnson possesses speed and verticality that give Richmond a sharper edge. This club typically eschews long balls; they’ve got the second-lowest long pass share in League One. Johnson - who’s second on the team with 0.4 fast break xG despite playing barely 300 minutes - bucks the trend.

That Johnson is a regular when healthy, Garnett is a nailed-on starter, and 18-year-old James Sneddon has emerged in goal is wholly unique at this level. Richmond is increasingly staring down the barrel of a post-Terzaghi state, and their ability to find solutions both old and young is hugely promising.

9.) South Georgia Tormenta

I could sing the praises of the Tormenta back line all day long, and I’ve done so relative to Preston Kilwien and Jake Dengler fairly often in the past. Callum Stretch is new to Statesboro this season, but his skill and versatility have quickly made him worthy of similar acclaim.

Stretch, a Puerto Rican international who spent four years in the Aston Villa academy, has 23 appearances and 19 starts this year. He projected like a center back upon his arrival with South Georgia, and he often played on the right side of a back three earlier this year. Increasingly, he’s operated as a right back and hasn’t missed a beat while throwing around his prototypical 6’4” frame.

You see Stretch’s do-it-all contributions from a 3-3 shootout against Charlotte mapped out above. While stretching (sorry…) the right sideline, the defender tried six crosses and went 52-for-56 on pass attempts. He also made six recoveries, illustrating that innate defensive sense.

Stretch’s unique profile was key to Tormenta’s ability to keep up with the Independence. In Ajmeer Spengler’s words, “Jackson Khoury was absolutely destroying his guy on the right side,” and he had the room to do so because of the set-up work from Stretch. The import of his versatility can’t be overstated.

That South Georgia is stuck on a bubble is mostly a fault of their stop-and-start attack, but the back line has been a highlight all year long. Callum Stretch’s growth has made one of Tormenta’s strengths that much stronger, and it’s keeping them in the mix for the eighth seed.

10.) Lexington SC

Much like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, I feel cheated every time I start to believe in Lexington. The pre-prep for this piece started last week, hot off the tails of Lexington’s dominant 7-1 win over Central Valley. The narrative at that point as clear: this team had found their stride in the 5-2-3, and new addition Marcel Canadi would help take the club to the promised land.

Canadi, an Austrian midfielder with recent experience in Bulgaria and Australia, was signed in September to bolster Lexington’s midfield, and he’s shown solid flashes since then. His left-footed passing was a real asset as Lexington spent 70 minutes trying to break down 10-man Knoxville a few weeks back. Against Central Valley, he picked up an assist off the corner and did wonders to set up Nico Brown on the wing.

Saturday’s 3-0 rout against Richmond shows that the Austrian is no panacea for Lexington’s ills. He and Yannick Yankam were a defensive sieve in the pivot, combining for only two tackles. They neither shielded the back three (just one of those tackles came in the defensive third) or contributed to a marauding press; they combined for a single recovery in the opposing half versus the Kickers.

Time and again, Lexington was forced onto the back foot and failed to find their shape. It’s the story of a season where Darren Powell has played whack-a-mole trying to snuff out the issues in his team.

11.) Chattanooga Red Wolves

The Red Wolves’ struggles largely come down to an inability to dictate where the game is played. We’ve seen Chattanooga adopt multiple formations across the course of 2024, but they’ve rarely set the terms in any alignment. Recent results have only continued to bear that trend out.

In a loss to Greenville a few weeks back, the Red Wolves were in something like a 4-4-2 and shipped five goals to the Triumph. Chattanooga had some decent offensive ideas, but they lacked an effective counterpress and suffered on the break. Mix-ups between recovering midfielders and central defenders on the back foot were a constant.

That’s par for the course this year. Chattanooga is wasteful in attacking areas, hence why they sport a league-worst 63% passing accuracy in the opposing half. Because they can’t prevent opponents from breaking out and struggle in the counterpress, the Red Wolves are then forced to reset and drop into a parked bus.

No team’s midfielders block more shots than Chattanooga’s, and that signifies their struggles. If you need your No. 10 or box-to-box No. 8 to sit in front of the penalty area and clog space, you aren’t allowing those players to create. The Red Wolves are pinned back constantly, and it stifles their ability as an offensive team.

While Chattanooga got a draw against Northern Colorado over the weekend, it felt like a missed Hailstorm opportunity more than a coup for the Red Wolves. Chattanooga’s re-shaped 5-4-1 didn’t put enough pressure on the ball and bled space where it counted. This club needs to learn how to take the fight to opponents if they want to steal a playoff spot.

(Side note: extremely confusing to see a Northern Colorado team clad in a purplish-red color taking on all-white Chattanooga this weekend. My brain is too small to process such nonsense.)

12.) Central Valley Fuego

All good defenses are alike; each bad defense is bad in its own way. Central Valley has allowed a league-high 45 regular season goals despite playing a league-low 17 matches, and they’ve done so because of a nasty combination of systematic flaws.

I hit on this club’s goalkeeping the last time I rounded up League One, so I won’t belabor that point. Suffice to say that things have improved little in recent weeks. The Lexington game where Fuego allowed seven goals against 3.2 xGA is a case in point.

What’s more frustrating is this club’s impotence in the back line. Central Valley’s woes at central defense have been a constant all year, and an inability to get right hasn’t been for a lack of trying.

On opening day, Jermaine Jones paired Jason Ramos and Clayton Torr as center backs amidst a four-man back line. Against Lexington, Deshawon Nembhard, Sean Vinberg, and Bryan Bustamante held down a back three; the former two were midseason additions. Fuego has used no less than seven players in central defense over the course of the season, and they’ve been utterly unable to find an answer.

Jones’ high-flying and direct system was always going to introduce some level of risk, but his defensive spine is simply too poor to make it all work. This weekend’s draw against Greenville, a match where Fuego put up just 0.2 xG and conceded 1.6, saw goalkeeper Carlos Avilez parry the ball to an opponent that would draw a pen and also featured a comical own goal. What could’ve been a win turned into a lost opportunity.

Central Valley ran a rarely seen 4-2-3-1 against the Triumph, which may be related to the fact that Jermaine Jones is…uh…missing in action these days? Things are never not weird for Fuego. This article is ostensibly a vibe check, and the Central Valley vibes are bad.

Cover photo credit: Tanya Fabian / The Coloradoan