The Back Four: Awards check-in

Plus looks at Rhode Island, Spokane, and Central Valley

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.

Now, let’s get to it.

Awards Watch

We’re at T-minus 40 days in the USL season, so who’s looking like the favorite on my awards ballots? A few of the races across the Championship and League One are very obviously wrapped up, but most are tight-run and hard to predict. Here’s the rundown across the two leagues.

Most Valuable Player

On the Championship side, I don’t really need to elaborate about a player I’ve praised ad nauseum: it’s Nick Markanich. He’s nine goals ahead of Wilson Harris in the Golden Boot race, he doesn’t get nearly enough love for his defensive work rate, and the excellence comes within an elite Battery team. As much as I want to be a stinker, there simply aren’t alternative picks.

In League One, my answer is Bruno Rendon. I’ve got love for Lyam MacKinnon’s league-best 16 goal contributions and Angelo Kelly-Rosales’ do-it-all midfield dominance; Luis Gil could have a case depending on Spokane’s finish. Still, you can’t deny how utterly crucial Rendon has been to an explosive Northern Colorado team that’s built around his skills.

The Hailstorm have 49 goals scored between League One and Jagermeister Cup games this year, second-best in the division. That Rendon, who has 13 goals and two assists across competitions, is a totemic presence on the wing makes it happen. Northern Colorado constantly uses the Cuban winger as a long outlet, forcing defenses to spread out and letting their offense benefit everywhere else on the field. No one else in League One possesses that gravity; Bruno Rendon is one of a kind.

Young Player of the Year

You’re eligible to be the Young Player of the Year if you were born in 2002 or more recently than that. At 21 years old, Elijah Wynder still has another season of eligibility in his back pocket and is more than deserving of the title already. Among all USL Championship midfielders on a per-game basis, Wynder ranks in the top third for:

• Expected goals (0.12)

• Defensive actions (3.5)

• Tackle win rate (71%)

• Dribbles (0.91)

• Forward pass share (34%)

No other central player, young or otherwise, plays as complete a game as Wynder. Throw in a terrific sense of energy and spatial awareness within the LouCity 3-4-3, and you’ve got a winner.

Luis Alvarez is my League One go-to. He’s got seven goals and four assists across all competitions, numbers in line with his xGA returns. When Charlotte needs Alvarez to play more like a No. 10, he does so. When they need him to sit deep and set the tempo at the base of the midfield, he does so. Alvarez leads League One with 66.9 touches per game, and he’s at an elite 6.0 recoveries per game to boot. Few players are as magnetic as the Independence star, much less as effective on the ball.

Defensive Player of the Year

You can go a few routes with Defender of the Year, and it’s easy to pick a full back with some goals or the central defender with the most tackles. Matt Mahoney is my choice because of his importance to Colorado Springs’ system. Mahoney is winning less than a tackle per match, and he’s barely above the 50% mark on aerial duels. To cite those numbers misunderstands his role as the centerpiece of an aggressive, marauding back line charged with covering space between the lines.

Mahoney ranks in the 91st percentile for overall defensive actions because of a preternatural ability to jump passing lanes as an interceptor. He’s almost never dribbled past. In possession, he sports a top-third forward pass share and is unafraid to carry the ball to start offensive moves. Matt Mahoney doesn’t get enough love, and that ought to change during awards season.

For similar reasons in League One, Jordan Skelton is my guy. Knoxville uses Skelton as the centermost piece in their back three, where he also suffers from the “not that many tackles!” surface-level nit. In Skelton’s case, you can point to an elite 81 clearances and an implacable 66% win rate in the air as evidence of his dominance. The 6’4” Englishman is so steady that he allows his teammates to step out and grow bolder. Partners Jalen Crisler and Danny Fernandez are top-25 interceptors because they know Skelton will be there covering behind them.

Consider that One Knox has the best xG-preventing defense in League One and has conceded less times than any other club in the division, and it’s clear that their talisman deserves the acclaim.

Goalkeeper of the Year

Renan Ribeiro’s bawdy numbers in Hartford make this category difficult, but Danny Vitiello ought to be the answer at the end of the day. With -6.8 goals prevented versus expected - second behind Ribeiro - you can’t claim that Vitiello is simply the product of an elite defense. He’s making important stops and making sure that the Republic remain whole. Vitiello has also prevented 2.4 goals on fast breaks, the best mark in the USL. If you want a high-leverage shot-stopper, look no further.

One of the easiest choices of all is League One’s Goalkeeper of the Year: Austin Pack is the pick. Across all competitions, the Independence ‘keeper has saved 6.6 goals above expected, which is four times as many as his nearest competitor. Pack allows 0.8 goals per expected goal, one of four League One goalies under par. Charlotte tends to play punchier matches that are often tight-run, and they couldn’t pull it off without Austin Pack.

Coach of the Year

In the preseason, my predictive model pegged New Mexico United for 43 points and a finish in 10th place. Well, New Mexico passed that point sum about a month ago and leads the Western Conference at the time of writing. Even if they slip up down the stretch, Eric Quill deserves to be the Coach of the Year.

More than 50% of New Mexico’s minutes this season have belonged to brand new players. These weren’t superstar recruits on massive deals, either: Quill and the club’s brass identified undervalued pieces that could fit his fluid, controlling 4-2-3-1. Throw in the deceptively calm way that Quill dealt with a spate of major defensive injuries to stay at the top of the West, and the case grows that much stronger.

Eamon Zayed is my guy in League One. I’ve sung Northern Colorado’s praises up in the MVP section, but you can’t say enough about the job Zayed has done to improve this team and diversify their system after losing Trevor Amann and Arthur Rogers. The Hailstorm have more than tripled their average xG margin per game. In fact, they’re on pace to have the best xG differential in the entire history of League One - they’re 50% better than the 2019 Greenville Triumph (the current record-holders) at the time of writing.

Zayed has retained the vertical sensibility we saw in 2023, but he’s also introduced impressive new reads in possession at the same time. Structured plays down the left featuring Lucky Opara and a roaming Jackson Dietrich are just as effective as the flashier diagonals; Zayed is maximizing NoCo’s talent in a major way. The former Indy Eleven striker deserves his flowers for a bang-up job on the sideline in Windsor.

Rhode Island’s transition template

Think about the big strikers in the USL, and you’d assume they’re racking up goals to make their mark. Scoring is a No. 9’s top priority, right?

Albert Dikwa is bucking the statistical trend. Between the end of July and mid September, the reigning Golden Boot winner put up 2.2 xG and 1.4 xA. That’s a very even balance when you think about the league’s leading producers during the same time span. Consider:

• Wilson Harris’ 16:1 xG-to-xA ratio (4.0 xG, 0.25 xA)

• Manuel Arteaga’s 3.3:1 ratio (5.3 xG, 1.6 xA)

• Khori Bennett’s “divide by zero” error (4.0 xG, no xA)

• Albert Dikwa’s 1.6:1 ratio (2.2 xG, 1.4 xA)

Rhode Island’s talismanic forward is shooting less and dishing more than his peers, and that’s a function of the RIFC system.

Shape-wise, you’ll mostly see a 3-5-2 in Smithfield. The central trio isn’t afraid to rotate, varying between the use of two higher No. 8s and more of a classic double pivot. That freedom, paired with the innate intensity and magnetic ball winning of players like Marc Ybarra and Clay Holstad, sets RIFC up to win second balls and knockdowns on the ends of long balls.

When Rhode Island isn’t being direct, they’re a tremendous threat on the counter. RIFC isn’t set up to patiently pick you apart in the final third. They want to break out quickly and generate odd-man advantages. That preference is the reason Dikwa has taken on a more balanced, creative role in 2024.

Consider two breakout moves from Rhode Island’s last two matches. In each case, you start with their low-block back five generating a turnover on the left. In each case, you end at Dikwa’s feet.

The first example here starts with central defender Morris Duggan, who’s making four recoveries per game and ranks in the 98th percentile for pressing takeaways, dispossessing a Birmingham player. Duggan’s tackle instantly pushes the ball towards Marc Ybarra on the left side of the midfield, and he’ll lead the charge from there. Meanwhile, Jack Panayotou - another midfielder closer to the center - also begins to push ahead.

The second example starts wider, with Noah Fuson - filling in as a wing back in the absence of called-up Jojea Kwizera - doing the business on the left. A natural forward, Fuson went two-for-three for tackles in Pittsburgh, and his takeaway here also feeds towards Ybarra. This time, Holstad is the central runner rather than Panayotou.

As each move progresses, Ybarra carries the ball upfield as the forward line comes into focus. Ybarra moves ahead, central overloads develop, and Dikwa stretches the defense by moving outside.

The first play from the home match against the Legions sees Ybarra play directly into Dikwa’s feet, isolating him against the lone right back. Meanwhile, Holstad - who has three goals on 37 shots out of the midfield this year - continues his central run. Noah Fuson, a striker in this match, completes the set by staying in the middle and moving toward net while Dikwa drifts.

In the second play, JJ Williams is the complementary forward, and he serves as an intermediary between Ybarra and Dikwa. Williams receives to hold up play around halfway, and he forces a Pittsburgh defender to step up. Eventually, Williams will be able to turn and lace in Dikwa up the sideline. From there, the formula is much the same: Holstad and a striker advance, and Dikwa finds his iso on the left.

Now, let’s be clear: Dikwa isn’t a winger. That said, the variety he’s developed in his arsenal in 2024 has been a positive development. The forward is completing just 20% of his crosses this year, but he ranks in the 74th percentile of forwards for overall cross volume. Being able to poach or drift keeps defenses on the back foot.

That’s the case at the end of each example. The opposing defense is caught recovering, and Dikwa’s gravity helps to open space even further. Neither move results in a Rhode Island goal, but it’s evidence of a useful pattern they’ve forged in transitional moments.

Unfortunately, those chances weren’t on the menu against Orange County last weekend. Rhode Island put up 2.3 xG on Saturday in what was an open, end-to-end matchup, but none of that expected output came on the fast break. Noah Fuson was terrific connecting play between the lines, but RIFC’s shift into more of a 5-4-1 block was less conducive to a template reliant on dual No. 9s.

My model still gives the expansion side a 73% chance of making the playoffs, but that number will plummet if Rhode Island can’t find their mojo again. We know how this team finds their best looks. The task is to find them more often.

Spokane: fact or fiction?

USL League One’s parity in the top half of the league tends to create a “flavor of the week” phenomenon. Win two or three games in a row, and you’re suddenly soaring toward the top of the table. A truncated league schedule was the natural result of the Jagermeister Cup’s introduction, and it’s emphasizing that effect.

For long stretches, League One was a division with six “haves” and six “have-nots,” but that’s changing because of Spokane Velocity’s recent form. Their improvements have turned the league into a seven-team race (and underline how much more exciting things would be without 2024’s playoff expansion) but also beg an important question: is Spokane for real, or are they just a team in decent form?

Velocity is back to a 5-2-3 these days, having yo-yoed between shapes during a bit of a summer dry spell. Josh Dolling and Luis Gil are fairly constant presences in the attacking line, joined by a winger like Masago Akale or the recently signed Azriel Gonzalez on the left. Deeper, you’ll see combinations of Collin Fernandez, Andre Lewis, Jack Denton, and the occasional Joe Schmidt.

The personnel in question give Spokane a unique look between phases. With a forward dropping low for touches and a midfielder like Lewis pushing ahead, the attacking formation often looks like a single-pivot 3-1-4-2.

Adopting a shape with a relatively thin base (i.e., a lone No. 6) has caused ups and downs. Spokane is scoring goals with ease these days, but the underlying defensive numbers are shoddier. Having conceded 2.5 xG against Omaha and 2.2 against Central Valley - two games Velocity won! - it’s clearly a delicate balance being struck in Washington.

The concessions often see opponents find space between the lines, isolating that lone No. 6 in the transition between phases. You see so here, with Spokane on the back foot against a Central Valley carrier.

Within that pocket between Fernandez, Lewis, and the remnants of the back line, Fuego gets four players into space. Derek Waldeck, who’s become the first-choice right wing back, slides inside against a Fuego man, but the structural breakdown and the potential for a four-on-three is unmistakable.

These sorts of breakdowns have been too common. Opponents are finding gaps between the lines down the middle with relative ease. An unabashedly direct Central Valley team was able to try a whopping 44 passes from zone 14. Omaha tended to keep the ball on the floor a few days prior, but the result was the same: 50 passes from the final third and a high xG yield.

Still, Leigh Veidman has trusted his back line and goalkeeper Brooks Thompson to get the job done for good reason - the two-game winning streak is evidence of that bet paying off. Moreover, the offensive improvements at the other end make the shape worthwhile and recommend Spokane as a legit contender.

Here, in a break against Fuego, Fernandez begins as the ball carrier with Lewis sitting deeper; that’s the give and take you want to see. Meanwhile, Dolling stands near the center circle and occupies an opposing midfielder.

It’s the movement from there that’s so effective. Dolling’s depth opens up a lane further ahead, so Gil can make a right-to-left run that drags two center backs out of position. As the play develops, Dolling will loop underneath Gil to find that now-open pocket.

Lewis hits Gil, Gil turns and passes toward Dolling, and it ought to be chance. In this case, Dolling - who’s only averaging 1.8 shots per 90 this year, a bottom-third rate among League One forwards - lets the ball run to Derek Waldeck in a wide one-on-one. You’d optimally want the striker to boldly take the opportunity, but this is still a dangerous move evidencing Spokane’s flexibility.

Spokane doesn’t always need their offense to come from platonic, formation-defined plays. The goals against Omaha came from a Gil breakaway and a set piece.

Still, the first half against Tormenta (pre-Ahmed Longmire red) was a testament to the quality of the 5-2-3. Azriel Gonzalez was tempestuous in the press, and Gil was wonderfully fluid moving without the ball. Throw in a marauding performance from Lewis out of the pivot and clean pressing rotations that saw Spokane drop shift their wingers against the ball, and it would’ve been a win if not for the sending-off.

Expect to see more of it. Most expansion teams go through growing pains, but few get back up off the mat. Spokane has done so, and they look like they have the system to make noise in the playoffs.

Midence mania

When I hyped up Central Valley a few months back in this column, I asked whether they could ride solid form and a clarified tactical system into the postseason. That obviously isn’t going to happen: this club has one win and five losses since I praised them back in late July.

Even so, Fuego has still made important strides. They’re sixth in League One on xG margin in that same time span, and they’ve uncovered a handful of genuinely exciting players. Alfredo Midence is at the top of that list.

When the Honduran inked a deal with Central Valley earlier this year, it marked his first professional contract. Since then, he’s come good with three goals and seven assists in all competitions, winning the Player of the Month award in July in the process. Midence is seventh in the league with 3.1 total xG and xA even since that stellar month, placing second in League One with 15 chances created all the while.

Midence stands out for a few reasons, and his unmatched ability to seek out the ball between the lines is chief among them. Central Valley holds just 48% on average across all competitions, and they complete a very low 301 passes per 90 minutes. Fuego’s aim is to restart fairly long and win second balls upfield in good positions.

Between his recovery skills and his classical No. 10’s movement, Midence makes that strategy work. The Honduran has a clean first touch and clever instincts in tight spaces that allow him to turn regains into chances. Paired with midfield teammates like Chris Heckenberg and fluid movers like Javier Mariona, it allows Fuego to feel connected in the attacking half - you’ve got retainers, runners, and chance creators across the board.

You’ve see a short reel of #20 doing damage in the attacking half here. The qualities are obvious: jaw-dropping ball retention skills, audacious dribbling, two-footed technique, passing vision, and a strong shot. Across the five plays, you’re seeing:

• A reception between the lines, one where Midence allows two runners to advance above him. He finds space and shows off his two-footed shooting.

• A recovery in the attacking zone, followed by an instantaneous bout of tight control and a left-footed shot.

• Two give-and-go passing moves that force the defensive line to step up, followed by a perfectly weighted through to Dembor Benson at striker.

• A successful dribbling take-on after receiving a switch, then an intelligently weighted cross from the endline for an assist.

• A long-range shot attempt that Midence recovers, followed by an ankle-breaking juke and another shot on net.

When was the last time Central Valley had someone who could do all of that, much less multiple times per game? This Fuego team isn’t going to make the playoffs, but they’ve got a genuinely exciting base to build upon heading into the future of the Jermaine Jones regime. Midence can be the centerpiece - if the USL Championship doesn’t come calling before then.

Threads!

Nothing for the Championship’s Saturday slate this time around. I’m increasingly tired of Twitter, and the threads don’t really get a ton of engagement outside of Louisville and Tampa Bay games. I don’t plan on quitting entirely this season, but we’ll see what gives going forward.

In any event, here’s the stuff from Wednesday:

• Birmingham - Tampa Bay (9/11)

• Memphis - Hartford (9/11)

• Tulsa - Las Vegas (9/11)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Having Leo Fernandes back is so, so fun. Tampa Bay looked like a completely different team with their former MVP on the pitch in the second half against Pittsburgh. I’m not entirely sure what his health situation is, but starting Fernandes and Ben Bender as the No. 8s ahead of Lewis Hilton feels like a cheat code.

• Cameron Dunbar created just one chance and went oh-for-two on dribble attempts in a novel start at the No. 10 spot for Orange County this weekend, but his deployment there was incredibly smart from Danny Stone. Given how involved OCSC wants their attacking midfield to be in the press and how Dunbar’s lateral speed challenges defenses, it’s a switch that pays off in both directions.

• It’s the time of year that the New York Film Festival rolls around, and I’m about to bankrupt myself in the best way possible.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover photo credit: Jeffrey E. Ito / Sacramento Republic