The playoff model seems a little more hesitant about Chattanooga than some of the other strong-starting teams (odds are still fairly high, but points are closer to the bubble)… eye-test-wise, are there things you’re watching that might fall off? Or is this more about potential general regression from a team that wasn’t considered a preseason favorite?
You've basically got it. The fact that they have a good number of points in the bank already is swaying the odds% up, but my data model still dislikes their player-by-player performances relative to the other top teams in League One.
They're bizarre by the eye test because their style is so extremely direct, but I haven't seen anything that I'd deem a red flag. The defensive organization this season is night-and-day versus 2024.
Great stuff as always!
The playoff model seems a little more hesitant about Chattanooga than some of the other strong-starting teams (odds are still fairly high, but points are closer to the bubble)… eye-test-wise, are there things you’re watching that might fall off? Or is this more about potential general regression from a team that wasn’t considered a preseason favorite?
You've basically got it. The fact that they have a good number of points in the bank already is swaying the odds% up, but my data model still dislikes their player-by-player performances relative to the other top teams in League One.
They're bizarre by the eye test because their style is so extremely direct, but I haven't seen anything that I'd deem a red flag. The defensive organization this season is night-and-day versus 2024.