The Back Four: Week Two Takeaways
Tactics, stats, and other developments that defined the week for Lexington, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Indy
Welcome back to The Back Four for another set of USL breakdowns! You know the drill: the best, most holistic analysis I’ve got is there for you at Backheeled in my power rankings piece. It’s the culmination of my soccer writing. The tangential, discursive, niche points? Straight into your inbox from this Substack.
Without further ado, let’s get to it for Week Two.
Lexington’s leftward leaning limitations
Through two games, Lexington SC is averaging 0.72 expected goals per game and conceding 1.14 despite earning a draw against Northern Colorado and a win against Chattanooga in the process. Why the middling-to-poor statistical performances? A conservative press and one-sided offense have plagued Darren Powell’s side so far.
Thinking about the Red Wolves game from Friday, the Yannick Yankam winner came off a free kick won moving down the right side. Right back Christian Lue Young spaced wide with winger Isaac Cano making a countervailing run inside; meanwhile, Cameron Lancaster moved into the right channel. When Young played in the striker, Chattanooga overextended and knocked Lancaster to the ground for a foul.
That sequence was a rare exception.
Two games running, Lexington has been heavily tilted toward the left side in attack. Part of that tilt is a credit to Jorge Corrales, a USL veteran and Cuban international who’s been an instant star at left back. Behind wingers Nico Brown in the opener and Jayden Onen in Week Two, Corrales has been the play driver in the Lexington team.
Though he’s only attempted two crosses and not formally created a shot, Corrales’ overlaps and contributions as an initiator from the left half space have been invaluable. Against Northern Colorado, he completed a whopping 67 passes on a completion rate above 90%. Against Chattanooga, the total was down to 39, but Corrales was 78% accurate in the offensive zone.
You can see his contributions in the back half of the clip below. #12 gets a touch deep in his own half, but he hits a pinpoint ball into forward Ates Diouf’s feet in the final third. It’s a flurry of motion from there; a winger makes a cut inside, Corrales overlaps, and a cross from the Cuban ensues.
The lack of spark outside of Corrales’ side has been notable. Though he was the hero on the night against the Red Wolves, Yankam wasn’t active as a central creator, completing just two forward passes in zones 11 and 14.
Tate Robertson has been similarly staid on the right. He created 55 chances last year, 120%(!) more than any other Lexington player. This season, he’s still a wizard on free kicks - especially those taken from the left wing - but he just hasn’t been able to affect the game in open play.
A lax pressing scheme has also mattered, feeding into the low-tempo, low-event style. Robertson has been particularly affected, forced to sit deeper and thereby less able to leak out into right-wing space. That game-winning sequence against Chattanooga? It went down when Robertson went off for Isaac Cano.
On the press: whether defending in a 4-4-1-1 (as in Week One) or a 4-4-2 (as in Week Two), Lexington have steadfastly pinned their wingers at the midway line or deeper in order to steel their own half. Lancaster and Diouf have been charged with roving to limit lanes in the press, but they have negative goals added as interrupters through two games, per American Soccer Analysis.
The style was more effective against Northern Colorado and felt inspired as a stopgap against the Bruno Rendon-Noah Powder duo on the right. A week later, the Red Wolves went long on 24% of their attempts, able to pick out passes because of the sit-back-and-absorb philosophy. Indeed, Chattanooga found their best looks in the chaos bred in the wake of half-cleared headers; the physical wing group of Jonathan Filipe and Stefan Lukic battled on field to open up looks for a central Ricky Ruiz.
For now, I’m defaulting to a “good teams win these sorts of games” argument. Maybe that’s naive, and the mass of talent that joined up this winter isn’t going to mesh. Maybe the early points are an apparition. Still, if Lexington can grind out wins from adverse expected goal scenarios, it’s scary to think about what this team can do at full tilt.
Pittsburgh in Peril?
In a rather impotent opening performance, the Riverhounds generated 0.18 expected goals and hardly tested New Mexico in a whimpering loss. There were defensive frailties in the midfield, too, but the offensive issues were the story. The Pittsburgh forwards were iffy on duels, the movement in the central areas lacked, and distribution from the back was poor.
The latter problem stood out starkly in contrast to 2023. Back then, on the way to the Players’ Shield, Pittsburgh was underratedly effective building from the back. Arturo Ordonez was probably the best ball-carrying center back in the USL, Joey Farrell was a keen passer, and Patrick Hogan - yet to start this season despite being retained - showed flashes as well.
In the New Mexico match, Pittsburgh’s three center backs only went forwards on 46% of their 125 passing attempts. That’s a lot of sideways balls. The thing about being a defender and sitting close to your own endline is that you can’t really pass backwards. With those limited options in mind, it’s a bit remarkable that the ‘Hounds ended up being so negative.
Immobility in front of the midfielders and wing backs was the key to the problem. As mapped above, the wing backs mostly got their touches in the defensive half, and they never made cuts inside to overload the central midfield. Likewise, the Jackson Walti-Kenardo Forbes-Robbie Mertz trio at the heart of the 3-5-2 couldn’t access the most dangerous areas of the pitch, the central areas in the attacking half. Seldom few moments saw Pittsburgh enter the final third with any modicum of control.
When Pittsburgh was at their best last season, opponents had to press their central defenders and respect the varied passing threat from the back. Because of that fact, those same opponents would get stretched out and be less able to contest second balls and glom onto knockdowns. That hasn’t been the case in 2024.
Still, the Orange County game showed progress for Bob Lilley’s side. Pittsburgh was the better team on paper with a return of 1.48 expected goals, and an average passing distance of 6.3 yards was indicative of a more controlled and patient approach.
Context matters. The guests took an instant lead and sat back from there. The Riverhounds were invited to possess the ball, and they took advantage. Still, the variations that Lilley installed in build-up were a major reason why Pittsburgh looked more potent.
In the sequence shown, Pittsburgh possesses around the halfway line against the Orange County press. Luke Biasi, the left-sided center back, advances past a closing winger because Jackson Walti, the No. 6 in the Riverhounds midfield, has dropped low into the back line to distract said winger. Walti’s drop creates a four-on-three edge against the press.
The motion is crudely mapped above, but it’s an obvious example of how Pittsburgh improved week-over-week. Indeed, that sort of motion activated the right-footed Biasi to a large degree. He completed 116 passes on the day, 79% of which were short and the rest of which were left-to-right switches taken on his stronger foot.
You see that very sort of pass developing in the same screenshot. Note the positioning of the wing backs, Junior Etou on the left and Dani Rovira on the right. Etou shows low, making himself available as a passing options and thereby encouraging Orange County to cheat left.
Meanwhile, Rovira streaks up the right wing. As Biasi shakes free, he can look up and launch one of those switches into Rovira because the guests are hedging softly the other way in reaction to both Etou and Walti’s movement.
Yeah, Pittsburgh didn’t score yet again, and yeah, they conceded instantly as well, but the process was better. I still have doubts about this roster, but Lilley is already installing offensive reads that will make this team more and more potent with each passing week.
Detroit’s New Style
In the “we are so back” department for the week, I’m fired up about Detroit City’s new look. Le Rouge ran something like a 4-2-3-1, but formations are fickle things. In the press, the shape was a proper 4-2-4 as Maxi Rodriguez joined the forward line to help match Colorado Springs’ back line four-for-four. In block, the shape could become a flatter 4-5-1 at times.
What made the system tick? As compared to the classic Trevor James back three, the new shape innately gave Detroit more players upfield to maintain possession in dangerous areas.
Take Maxi Rodriguez. #21 was covered by two defensive midfielders a line behind, allowing him to dictate play in the offensive zone. We did see that late in 2023 when James pivoted to a 4-3-3, but Danny Dichio spotlighting Rodriguez as a day-one priority was extremely promising nonetheless.
The shape of the 4-2-4’s midfield allowed Rodriguez to rove from side to side and constantly provide linking options in the half spaces. His teammates created passing triangles in deeper areas, and #21 converted them into attacking-zone overloads. Indeed, that phenomenon was the crucial feature of the 4-2-4 shape.
If you cleave the pitch into vertical halves in the 4-2-4, you’re left with trios of (1) a full back, (2) a winger, and (3) a central midfielder in each sector. Rodriguez’ intelligence - and his 83% pass completion in the offensive half - doubled down to pay those triangles off.
No matter how you slice it, the formation helped Detroit look fluid and effective where it counted. In Dichio’s first game, his side held 56% of possession and went long on just 11.7% of their attempts. That’s a far cry from 2023, when Detroit averaged 46% possession and was the second-most vertical unit in the entire USL by average pass length.
Nowhere was the glow-up more evident than on the left side. Time and again, new signing Ali Coote (four chances created) and might-as-well-be-a-new-signing-because-he-was-really-misused-last-year Brett Levis (three crosses) tore down the left with criss-crossing aplomb.
You see their combinations broken down in the sequence above. You’d start with James Murphy or Laye Diop (who totaled 91 pass completions on accuracy above 90%) breaking the lines of Colorado Springs’ 4-1-4-1 press, you’d activate one of Levis or Coote on the move, and then you’d be off to the races.
(Murphy was so good, by the way. He was slightly worse than Diop by the raw numbers, but it felt like he was under the gun every time he got a touch and never felt overmatched. Love seeing him get the spotlight in this team.)
Now, it wasn’t a perfect showing for Detroit. Ben Morris felt a bit miscast on the right wing, but Michael Bryant wasn’t doing him favors as a somewhat less willing overlapper versus Levis. Defensive solidity was a question mark; Detroit only won the expected goals battle 1.94 to 1.88 on xG despite facing 10 men for 45 minutes. Still, if this is what the opener looks like, this team may well be a threat in an open East as they grow.
The Sean McAuley Special
There’s “narrow,” and then there’s whatever Indy Eleven’s doing in their 4-3-3 to start the year. It’s easy to think of narrowness of something that only happens in the middle of the park, but that isn’t the case. Indy have made hay by keeping their 10 outfield players firmly ensconced in one sector of the pitch: left, center, or right.
Now, that formula isn’t foolproof. Last week, Oakland’s 3-5-2 was able to limit Indy’s gameplan in the second half. This weekend, Memphis was oddly punchy by widening out their shape against the Boys in Blue, even while down a man. The Tennesseans won the expected goals battle 1.52 to 1.22.
Still, when it works, it works. Indy have tended to pack tight, launch a long pass into an overloaded sector, and hope for the best.
It’s a stop-start approach to be sure, one that limits tempo and carves opportunities out of chaotic moments rather than a consistent, replicable pattern. A first half against Memphis where the Eleven had three shots on target (versus none for the hosts) on 37% possession is indicative of that phenomenon.
In the example screenshot, a few tenets of the offensive approach are on show. The goal kick here is lofted toward Sebastian Guenzatti, who started as the left-sided forward atop Indy’s 4-3-3. As the ball arcs to that side, left-sided midfielder Jack Blake hedges upfield, ready to pounce on a possible knockdown. Left back Aedan Stanley stays similarly prepared. Every player on the overload side is raring to go.
There’s a notable omission in the screencap: right-sided forward Douglas Martinez. Because the pass is aimed away from Martinez’s side, he makes a weak-side run arcing over the top of Guenzatti. In doing so, Martinez is preparing himself for a flick-on over the defensive line. Pair that run with the Blake/Stanley action: no matter where the ensuing header ends up, someone from Indy is ready to contest it.
The numbers bear out how extreme the Eleven’s playstyle has been so far. This team’s average pass has traveled 11.8 yards so far in 2024, which would’ve been the second-furthest in the USL last season. Indeed, Indy’s average distance in 2023 was a full six yards less at 5.8. With length comes inaccuracy; the Eleven’s completion percentage has gone down 17% year-over-year!
Indy’s forwards aren’t aerial aces1 either; the four players who slotted in up top against Memphis went four-for-11 on aerial duels. Guenzatti won just 23% of his 134 such duels last year, which is kind of insanely bad? Augustine Williams, who was the central striker in each of the first two games this year, wasn’t a whole lot better at 36% on 97 tries with Charleston.
Knock the efficiency, but Indy has the technicians to take advantage of the small windows that their style has forged. The Blake-Stanley combo has been utterly unreal, and they were responsible for both goals that slid the Eleven past 901. You can see how much more active they’ve been as compared to the right-siders above.
Advanced numbers bear out the duo’s efficacy. Per American Soccer Analysis, Stanley has +0.28 goals added as a passer this year, second-best of any player in the entire USL. Blake isn’t far behind, ranking 11th at +0.15.
I have my doubts as to whether the route-one distribution and hyper-narrow style is sustainable, but it’s fun in a “what the fuck is going on?” sort of way for the time being. Longtime readers will know that I’m Indy born and raised and have a soft spot for this club - neutrality be damned - and I’m just excited to see a team that’s getting results.
(Also: that Callum Chapman-Page switch ahead of the Blake penalty ruled.)
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Interested in the Miami loss to Sacramento? It’s the USL Tactics Show this week.
Final Thoughts
I’ve got a US Open column coming at Backheeled this week that you won’t want to miss. It’s gonna be big and dumb and fun in the best way possible. In other news…
Be sure to check out my analysis of the El Paso defense from last week.
If you aren’t reading Phil Baki’s USL-wide coverage and the occasional Dan Vaughn El Paso hit for Protagonist, you’re doing yourself a disservice. Their USL work is just great, and the podcast network is must-listen for all things lower league soccer.
Want a closer perspective on Indy? The Game Beckons, one of the best and most consistent USL-centric sites out there, has you covered for the Memphis game and all things Eleven.
The Riverhounds, who regularly stressed the limits of Highmark Stadium’s capacity last season, are planning a multi-phase project to expand the facility three times over. Amazing to see for a team that’s been a model of efficient operations.
I fondly think of Angelo Kelly-Rosales as a No. 8 or holding mid from his Pittsburgh days, but his turn in the front line of Knoxville’s 3-4-3 was man-of-the-match stuff. His linking play and weakside rotations were outstanding; he went 50% on his 12 duels on the ground, created five chances, and added a goal for good measure. The movement was so sharp too, with Kelly-Rosales constantly finding holes on either side of the Charlotte No. 6.
Be to check out For the Glove of the Game (with goalscoring hero Colin Shutler!) on The USL Show’s feed. Kaylor Hodges sits down with a pro goalkeeper in each episode and dissects all of their saves and touches from a given match. It’s unique in this space and incredibly insightful.
Top Chef starts back up this week, and I literally couldn’t be more excited. Now that’s a sport.
See y’all soon!
Using this phrase and realizing it was my inner Pokemon nerd showing was a trip.