The Back Four: takeaways from Week 23
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Spokane, Indy, Charlotte, and El Paso
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
If you aren’t subscribed to Backheeled, correct that! I’ve got a really big piece coming out this week that you won’t want to miss.
Now, let’s get to it.
Gil turn
Three years into his USL League One career, Luis Gil is firmly established as one of the division’s best-ever creators. He was a spark plug for Union Omaha in 2022 and 2023, the latter such season culminating in 11 goal contributions and 32 matches played for the league’s best side.
Gil joined the Spokane Velocity this year to provide leadership in their expansion campaign. It’s the 30-year-old attacker’s flexibility that may make or break Spokane’s playoff hopes.
With nearly 3.5 expected assists, Gil is a top creator in League One. He also leads the Velocity in expected goals with a borderline top-ten tally. All of that comes on top of a league-best 83% success rate on dribble attempts (when you control for volume). Few players can match what the 5’9” dynamo provides as a triple threat.
Gil’s production defined Spokane’s hot start, a run where Leigh Veidman aligned his team in a wonderfully possessive 4-2-3-1. Ahead of Andre Lewis, Collin Fernandez, and/or Jack Denton in the pivot, the veteran star operated as a slick No. 10 that could drop low as a third man or drift into the half spaces.
When Spokane’s results slowed down, the shape changed. Brief experimentation with a three-at-the-back look usually saw Gil as a tucked-in right winger. The new formation was exciting, but there were spatial issues given Gil and striker Josh Dolling’s shared tendency to drop for touches between the lines.
Call it phase three now, because Spokane is moving towards 4-4-2 territory. It’s usually splitting hairs to differentiate between a 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1, but this innovation genuinely feels different. The Velocity pressed with Gil and a member of the pivot as dual No. 8s in a 4-1-4-1 to start the year. Now, Gil is standing next to Dolling like a second No. 9 in the press.
On the ball - as mapped above - the shape shift has weaponized the Velocity’s wingers. Spokane occasionally looks like a team with two false No. 9s behind marauding wingers. If you look at those average touched from the weird 8:00 AM PDT draw at Tormenta, you’ll note that right winger Kimarni Smith (#17) actually ended up ahead of both Gil and Dolling.
Gil has absolutely been willing to do real striker things in the new shape - he put up 10 shots between that Tormenta match and last week’s win over Chattanooga. Still, that tendency for Gil to drop like a false No. 9 in tandem with increasingly vertical wing play has improved the Velocity attack.
This team is now able to recreate the successes of the opening months, but with a Plan B in tow. You see that above, with Gil dropping between the lines to link with Masango Akale before springing Dolling in over the top.
I’m fascinated to see how the approach changes after the recent signing of Anuar Pelaez. Unlike Dolling, Pelaez is the physical sort of forward that’s going to play like a tank in the box. He scored eight times for the Oakland Roots last year on an above-average conversion rate; he also ranked in the 7th percentile for passes per game and the 10th for xA. He could be a viable partner for Gil in a classic big-and-little duo.
No matter the change, it’s good to see Spokane continuing to iterate. This team is on the playoff bubble, and they aren’t resting on their laurels while trying to make the cut.
Explanation of Independence
Take a peek at the League One table, and you may be surprised to find the Charlotte Independence in first place. This is a team that started quite slowly in terms of their offensive output, and their rise wasn’t a forgone conclusion. A number of strong early results were tight-run matches that relied on Austin Pack’s brilliance in net to get over the line.
April was the nadir for Charlotte. The team averaged less than a goal per game across all competitions, even underperforming their 0.7 xG per match average. Early-season injuries and some amount of turnover (e.g., Dane Kelly and Khori Bennett our) were an issue, but the team also seemed somewhat rudderless tactically.
No longer. The Independence have soared in July and August, and their xG has leveled out at a very solid 1.5 expected strikes a game. Meanwhile, defensive chemistry has never been better. In the last seven games - none of which have been a loss after 90 minutes - you’ve seen Nick Spielman, Ryan Djedje, and Clay Dimick start together six times. The only exception came in the wake of a Spielman red card.
The attacking unit has been more fluid, but that’s actually been a strength. We’ve seen:
Luis Alvarez in the pivot as a deep-lying creator or as a No. 10.
Tresor Mbuyu as a wider left winger…or not in the squad at all to accommodate Kharlton Belmar.
Gabriel Obertan kinda doing whatever he wants as a second striker playing off of Juan Obregon.
It’s honestly a little chaotic, but chaos and uncertainty make life difficult for opposing defenses. Charlotte has the talent and ingenuity upfield to execute and addle and team in League One.
The controlled chaos is on show above, featuring an attacking move with Charlotte in an almost diamond-like alignment. You start with a pass toward an inverted Joel Johnson on the left, spring into Obertan (playing that loose second striker role) in the half space, and allow supporting midfielders like Anthony Sorenson to flow freely.
Watch that clip a couple times, keeping an eye on Obregon’s unselfish movement to open up space, Omar Ciss’ late arrival for a shot, or Johnson’s follow-up run into the box. Few other teams in League One probe as actively. The shot here isn’t particularly dangerous, but this level of movement replicated for 90 minutes is lethal.
The aggression hasn’t come at the expense of defensive structure. Offensive freedom can lead to issues in recovery a lot of sides, but the Independence have mostly kept their noses clean. Consider the Triumph win, where Greenville put up 19 shots but only generated 1.08 xG. That’s a premier example of how Charlotte can drop into block and limit chance quality.
The clip above paints the picture. You start with Alvarez and Obregon caught high in the press and played past; Greenville is beyond the first line with ahead of steam. When the Triumph hit halfway, however, Charlotte is in position. Spielman has leapt up from central defense to cover the most immediate receiver. Bachir Ndiaye, a holding mid, tightens the angle toward the other side. Johnson - a full back once upon a time - hauls it to recover all the way back on the far sideline.
The Triumph enter the final third, but they’ve been slowed down enough that Charlotte isn’t tested. It’s a formula we’ve seen again and again. If Mike Jeffries can continue to combine offensive verve with defensive structure, a first-place finish won’t be out of the question in October.
Logan Neidlinger and the Indy midfield
In a golden stretch between April and June, the Indy Eleven tore off eight USL wins in a row and laid the groundwork for a magical run in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals. During that period, Sean McAuley established a firm starting lineup - give or take a piece or two in central defense - and set his side up to suffocate the opposition through physicality and territorial dominance.
It’s been rough sailing since the end of the unbeaten streak. Indy has just one win since June 22nd, culminating in a dispiriting second-half collapse against New Mexico this Sunday.
A lack of consistency has been Indy’s downfall, in direct opposition to the period that made this team a contender. However, one player is stepping up to the plate no matter his deployment: 18-year-old Logan Neidlinger.
Neidlinger got the start at right wing back against the visitors from Albuquerque, scoring his first professional goal in the process. Signed on a USL Academy deal this January, Neidlinger is a local high school grad1 set to play college ball at the University of Indianapolis in the autumn. In the meantime, he’s a jack of all trades for McAuley.
That right-sided role has been Neidlinger’s primary position, and he’s seemingly displaced Ben Mines as the starter in that spot. Mines was acquired in tandem with defender Benjamin Ofeimu early in the year, and their entrance into the starting lineup was a catalyst for the club’s improvement. They gave Indy the personnel to run a new 3-4-1-2 shape.
Still, Neidlinger’s sense of positioning is better than Mines’ already. Mines didn’t contribute to a goal in any of his 20 appearances to date, whilst the teen did so in about a sixth of the minutes.
Versatility also makes Neidlinger useful. Against Charleston, he started on the right side of a double pivot and looked fantastic before a hideous second-half collapse. Against Tulsa, the teenager became the left winger in a late-game 4-4-2 and showed ample verve in tandem with fellow rookie Karsen Henderlong, who cameoed at the striker spot.
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You see Neidlinger’s numbers and a few of his heat maps here, evidencing a player who’s doing a bit of everything and covering ample ground. Even if the technical skills aren’t quite elite - and which 18-year-old could realistically make that claim? - Neidlinger knows how to be a glue guy.
The formation that he’s gluing together is the bigger concern now. Indy ran with a true 3-2-5 for most of the match against Rhode Island. Against New Mexico, they varied between a 3-1-4-2 and a 3-4-1-2 to diminishing returns. That seems like a small distinction, but the change was massive: the new alignment weakened Indy’s long ball game, the double pivot had no chemistry, and three concessions ensured.
How can McAuley fit both Jack Blake and Aodhan Quinn into one midfield? How bad is Cam Lindley’s knock, and where does he fit in? Sebastian Guenzatti’s evolution as a hybrid forward and center mid has been vital, but could he be crowded out? McAuley has a slew of questions to answer, and he needs Logan Neidlinger to show maturity beyond his years to keep the Eleven afloat as answers hopefully emerge.
Toro, Toro, Toro
Before this weekend, El Paso last won a home game in September of 2023. This season, the Locomotive had lost eight and drawn two at Southwest University Park before downing Miami FC to get off the schneid.
Miami is about as bad as they come. My modeling has them finishing with 11.5 points this season, give or take. Still, Wilmer Cabrera’s commitment to an increasingly stable system was heartening to see. Any success that Cabrera attains will be driven by the ex-Rio Grande Valley core at the heart of that framework.
So far, the introduction of Robert Coronado into the central midfield and Ricky Ruiz into the left wing have been especially big moves. Andy Cabrera, Wilmer’s son, may well have a similar impact on the right after a nice substitute outing against Miami. Still, it’s the former duo that have underpinned the new phase-based El Paso formation.
Here, you see El Paso in the midst of a defense-to-offense transition. Four defenders are spotlighted in blue: Lucas Stauffer at right back, Noah Dollenmayer and Brandan Craig in the center, and Ruiz at left.
You’ll note immediately that Ruiz is hedging upfield, and that’s by design. The new Locomotive defend in a 4-2-4 shape with Ruiz sitting low in the back line. When El Paso regains, Ruiz pushes up to become an attacker while Stauffer stays deep on the right. The result is a 3-2-5 formation on the ball.
In the clip, Ruiz gets a touch around halfway to help shift the defense. That quick touch-and-go from #33 opens up Coronado in the middle, and it also forces a Miami wing back to step high. The result? Coronado can play a ball over a rotating Miami back line to loose Amando Moreno - the actual left winger - in a possible one-on-one.
In that 2-0 win, El Paso’s possession was firmly tilted toward Moreno and Ruiz on the left. Ruiz only created one chance, but he took an astronomical 75 touches. His presence freed up Moreno to take seven shots and get double-digit touches in the Miami box.
Coronado’s impact shouldn’t be undersold. You saw him hit a nice switch above - albeit to an offside player - and he went 63-for-68 on pass attempts overall. There were metronomic moments as well as bursts of inspiration: Coronado completed eight of his 11 long balls and created a match-high six chances.
Can this Toro-centric system work going forward? It’s an open question. Cabrera actually debuted the new tactics against Memphis a week prior. El Paso drew that match on the road, but they got smacked 2.9 to 0.7 on xG terms. Whether the 901 game or the Miami performance is a better barometer of the new-look Locomotive will determine if this season can end on a hopeful note.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps.2
Looking for discussion of Charleston’s evolving attack? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
$9 million in debt, $13 million in liens, and unpaid contractors? Not great stuff for Northern Colorado. The rumor - I’m not reporting, this is just hearsay from the League One subreddit - is that USL HQ is covering their salaries right now. You have to hope that they find new ownership if things keep going south.
Johnny Rodriguez is probably the most underrated finisher in the league. The guy is so, so smooth in front of net. His winner against Loudoun saw him control the ball on his chest at full speed, corral it toward the box, and then chip a finish on his left foot into the bottom corner. He’s doing that, like, every single week!
So, I’d never seen Top Gun. Bad reviews be damned, it’s a banger. Tom Cruise is cooking and has a level of vulnerability that you never see in his turn-of-the-century action hero era. Playing “Take My Breath Away” and “Danger Zone” roughly 18 times apiece is a choice, but boy does it work. It’s a consummate example of guys being dudes for two hours.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Campea Photography
As a fellow member of the Catholic school mafia of Indianapolis, I gotta shout out that Neidlinger is a Roncalli guy. Brebeuf is better, naturally, but you take what you can get.
Also, I’m feeling the need to talk about the ESPN2 recap issue for shame reasons. Basically, if a game is on a national ESPN network, I can’t screen record clips to do my usual analysis thread.
If such a game is on a weeknight and not competing against a full Saturday slate, that’s not a problem. I can easily navigate to the international YouTube stream with a VPN and do my business. If an ESPN2 game is on a Saturday, however, it’s trouble. Turning the VPN on and off to access different streaming platforms simply isn’t going to work while I try and cover 10 matches in a single night.
“But John!” you say. “Why don’t you just get the clips on replay the next day?” Because I’m a dude with a blog, and no one is paying me to post on Twitter. Doing the legwork while matches are happening is the only way I can finish my stuff in a reasonable amount of time.
That’s it for the defensiveness, so I hope y’all understand why I didn’t post about the LouCity win over Sacramento or whatever. I’m still watching, and I’m still diving deep in my weekly Backheeled piece.
Good stuff! Keep it coming.