The Back Four: System changes and a midfield star
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for San Antonio, Greenville, Chattanooga, and Las Vegas
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be. More to come there later this week.
Now, let’s get to it.
Shorthanded San Antonio
Is it time to press the panic button in San Antonio? The 2022 champs are in sixth place, but after losing twice last week, things have never felt this precarious during the Alen Marcina regime.1
There are extenuating circumstances, of course. On Saturday, San Antonio put out an injury report listing six players, including three players I’d consider regular starters. Four more players were out on international duty, Kevon Lambert and Shannon Gomez amongst them. Absences have been a fact of life all year.
Still, it’s clear that Marcina’s tactical changes in 2024 have fallen by the wayside amidst the uncertainty. Through May, San Antonio’s average pass completion traveled 8.1 yards, high but within the normal range for a USL side. Since the start of June, that number has ballooned to 11.9 yards, signifying a return to direct and physical soccer built on long balls.
That style never really went away, but it’s become overwhelming as of late. San Antonio still leads the league in fouls by a mile, evidencing their grit. Still, their long pass rate among outfield players has jumped from 10% to a share above 13%, leaping from one of the USL’s lowest into the upper half of the league.
We’ve seen these trends deepen over the last few weeks. In the Memphis game - a 1-0 win before the international absences hit - San Antonio used their preferred back three. Still, the philosophical changes were already underway.
This match saw Jorge Hernandez move deep into the pivot of a 3-4-3 formation. Hernandez is one of the premier creative No. 10s in the USL, most often used as a free-ranging winger off a central striker or the in-between piece in a 3-4-1-2. Early this season, San Antonio looked to build patiently with their seven deep players until they could goad the defense out and hit Hernandez between the lines.
With Hernandez deep, the San Antonio shape against 901 was stagnant in terms of vertical interchange between lines. You’d see plenty of criss-crossing runs from forwards like Machop Chol and Kameron Lacey, and Juan Agudelo occasionally dropped in to hold up the ball, but most movement was straight-line and horizontal. The result was minimal access to the spaces between the lines.
That’s evident above. You start with a central defender on the ball, drive into a wing back who has no room to be creative, and eventually let Kevon Lambert lump it long. It’s not inspired offensive play, but - as always has been the case for this club - there’s a ruthless efficiency to the approach. The ball ends up out of play, but Memphis is forced to step up and rotate toward the sideline, potentially leaving themselves vulnerable in the process. You’re trading in control for brute force.
Those minor bouts of opportunity were less common in the twofer last week. You see a screenshot of the shape from the loss to El Paso above, featuring a 4-4-2 with Jorge Hernandez and Luke Haakenson split extremely far apart in the central midfield pivot. You’re getting #10 upfield, but you aren’t providing an effective apparatus to get him the ball.
Though Hernandez racked up three shots and two chances created, his team put only one attempt on target in the shutout loss. 22% of their overall passes went long, and you can see why: there isn’t enough structure to build out with control.
The shape was little-changed in a 2-1 loss to Tulsa, and Hernandez - the avatar of San Antonio’s successes in player maximization and overall stylistic failures in equal measure - attempted just four passes into the box. Yes, his team had only 11 healthy senior players and started two teens from the academy, but the lack of flow was undeniable.
With Jake LaCava coming in, change seemed likely already, but last week’s results underline the need for it. Maybe San Antonio keeps playing direct to try and grind out wins, but this isn’t 2022 squad; this squad won’t be as effective in that pursuit. Maybe Marcina tries to be possessive again, riding Hernandez and LaCava in the attacking midfield. Finding any identity on the ball will be crucial if Marcina wants to stop the bleeding.
Tweaks for the Triumph
Greenville is atop their Jagermeister Cup group with nine points from four matches. In the league, they’re second place, albeit with a few extra games played. This team is undoubtedly amongst the class of League One, but they aren’t resting on their laurels. What have the Triumph done to keep innovating in recent weeks?
When I broke this team down in detail a few months back, I honed in on their use of a back three that leaned higher on the left via Lyam MacKinnon and Tyler Polak. That’s no longer the universal look, and that’s a good thing.
Against Chattanooga, a game the Triumph lost despite generating a whopping 3.4 xG, saw the usage of something like a 2-4-4 in possession. The shape change was well-considered, designed to lend an extra hand against the Red Wolves’ front three in the press - more on that defensive shape later on.
When Greenville looked upfield in build, they had ample overloads versus the press. In the central area, four players (two center backs and two center mids) outnumber Chattanooga’s three-man front. Say the Red Wolves narrow out in the middle but push their wing backs up in support? Greenville can still attain a two-on-one against that defender by pushing a central midfielder wide.
Above, you see how the advantage plays out. Chattanooga stays home and tries to limit the Triumph’s dual holding mids, but they’re passed around. When Nate Shultz receives at right back, he can play up the pitch, and Greenville’s attackers move to hunt down the ensuing pass in numbers. The ball-side winger, striker, and No. 10 all move towards the direction of Shultz’s serve, allowing the Triumph to enter the final third.
Chattanooga denies the midfield in the example, but that was rare. In that game, the Chapa Herrera/Evan Lee pivot combined for a whopping 152 touches, evidencing the access to the central areas. Still, you could argue that the twosome didn’t offer enough danger in possession, and the Triumph have iterated in other ways to try and sharpen their offense.
A week prior, Greenville took on Spokane, a team married to a 4-2-3-1. The Velocity prefer to use an aggressive back line to cover space rather than an high-flying press. You see the main striker close down while others try and maintain shape. Thus, Rick Wright opted for a 2-3-2-3 of sorts in build.
That shape is shown here with Evan Lee alone in the holding midfield: one No. 6 against one Spokane forward in the press. Note how expansive the shape is around Lee. The full backs range from sideline to sideline in that deeper line of three, and the Triumph are forcing Spokane to spread out.
In practice, that stretch-‘em-out approach didn’t do enough to test the Velocity. Greenville only mustered 0.9 xG in Washington, and their best and most dangerous sequences came through localized overloads. Switches and diagonals? Meh. Three-man plays where you’d get Polak, Ben Zakowski, and a center mid involved in tight spaces on the left? Effective.
The one-man pivot recurred against Tormenta this past Sunday in a three-goal outburst for Greenville, but there were important changes. Lee took on a center-left role, for one, allowing Pascal Corvino to play like the proper No. 6 in the shape. This was effectively a hybrid look in the midfield, with Lee varying between low drops or advances into that baseline 2-3-2-3.
Lee and Corvino totaled a relatively modest 99 touches in total, but they granted Sebastian Velasquez (37 passes, two chances created) an important sense of freedom in the final spot in the midfield three. You see above how Greenville built, with the withdrawn pair body-feinting their way into the attacking zone.
The success in the pivot forces the defense narrow, thereby opening Zakowski on the right wing. In a different world, Tormenta overcommits at a higher stage in build, and then it’s an easy ball into Velasquez in the center-right. There’s beauty in the wealth of passing outlets. Greenville was set up to beat South Georgia in a number of different ways.
What sets the Triumph apart is optionality. This team will press you hard and keep the ball on the ground, but the formation they use to support those tenets can vary. Wright is making highly intelligent shifts every week, responding to the opposition without ever being passive. Few teams are that confident in their identity, but that’s what makes Greenville special.
Challenges for Chattanooga
It’s a bad time to be the Chattanooga Red Wolves. They haven’t won the xG battle in any of their matches since the season opener, a game that they lost against Lexington in outright terms. This was a team that overhauled their squad significantly in the offseason, and I bought into the vision.
Nothing has gone right since then.
The big issue last year came in the defensive half, and it’s becoming clear that those problems haven’t gone away. Mostly a 4-2-3-1 team to start the campaign, Chattanooga began to dabble with a back three during their slump. The offense improved immediately, as in a 4-3 loss to Lexington, and Scott MacKenzie had seemingly identified how to maximize his best attackers.
Offensively, the shape looked like a 3-4-1-2 or a 3-2-5 at full tilt. The front line was genuinely fun. Ricky Ruiz held down that solo No. 10 spot between the lines, actively linking play and making clever dives into the half spaces to find room and bend defenses. Ahead of him, Chevone Marsh and Malaye Malango formed a lovely pair, with their give-and-take movement proving challenging to opponents in back fours.
Yeah, Chattanooga conceded four goals to Lexington, but you could chalk that up to growing pains. There were flashes of effective pressing that came to a head in particular during the win against Greenville.
In the example, the Triumph switch over Chattanooga’s narrow defensive formation, forcing rotation toward the near sideline. Crucially, it’s a very smooth rotation.
Note the approach. Chattanooga pushes a ball-side forward (Marsh) and defensive midfielder (Leopoldo Hernandez) over in coverage. There’s a choice: you can rely on those players to get wide, or you can push your wing back up to close down. The latter option opens up a hole in behind if the timing is bad, so the Red Wolves trust their midfield. It works, and the shifts from Hernandez and Marsh are covered by Ruiz hedging from the No. 10 spot and the other defensive mid (Stefan Lukic) staying home.
It all results in the home team having to reverse course, exactly as MacKenzie intended. This is a good sequence, on that illustrates how Chattanooga hoped their shape change would play out. Still, their the underlying numbers were bad all the while, and the example still sees the opposing team set the terms on the front foot, setting the terms and forcing a reaction.
Union Omaha learned important lessons from the tape here to utterly expose the Red Wolves just days later.
Against the Red Wolves and their narrow five-man front, Omaha used targeted width to work behind. Dom Casciato’s use of a 3-4-3 or 3-2-5 shape (depending on wing back height) ruthlessly created two-on-one advantages across every level.
Start from the back. Omaha could play into their outside defenders, push the ball-side center mid over, and instantly have an overload around the edge. The knock-on effect? Chattanooga thus would have to push one of Hernandez or Lukic up from the pivot.
Forcing the defensive midfielders high into supporting coverage was crucial; when they committed, they were unable to support in deeper areas. Suddenly, the back line became vulnerable.
Once Omaha forced those situations, they faced down a fairly flat Chattanooga defensive line. Omaha truly moved into 3-2-5 mode at this point, combining (1) that receiving center mid, (2) a wing back, and (3) a forward to find passing triangles in the channels. That dynamic is mapped out above, and it reliably allowed Omaha to go to town.
The Red Wolves’ strategy wasn’t necessarily broken on paper, but execution was poor, and tactical changes were too slow to arrive. The reaction with Madison up this weekend? Move into a 4-4-2 with a diamond-shaped midfield, muster just 0.6 xG, and pick up another loss.
Things can get better around the edges, and Chattanooga is still trying to get right. Per Michael Battista, the Red Wolves are due to add Michael Knapp in the pivot. Knapp is someone who impressed me with New York Red Bulls II in 2021 and 2022, putting up top-quarter forward passing shares and defensive actions per 90 in both seasons as a defensive mid in Montclair. Marooned on the bench for no good reason in Rio Grande Valley last season, he’s the perfect sort of Championship ‘tweener for a team like Chattanooga to add. Knapp could be crucial to fix a position marked by uncertainty and possessive negativity.
Still, Knapp isn’t a silver bullet. He’ll help the cause, but the Red Wolves need to quickly find an identity if they want to challenge for a playoff berth.
Edit: I’ve been informed that Knapp is merely on trial with the Red Wolves for the time being. Adding him is a no-brainer if I’m managing the team, but I’m just an idiot with a blog.
Valentin Noel!
Las Vegas has been the yo-yo team of 2024 in the Championship, bouncing up and down in the table amidst inconsistent bouts of form. By total xG margin, the Lights are the sixth-worst team in the division, though they sit just two points out of the playoff field and have a 63% chance of qualification by my modeling.
Control is everything for the Lights. Their average completion travels just 6.0 yards, and they hold 56% of possession in a typical game, second-best in the USL. The Lights are fairly aggressive in the press out of their 4-4-2 shape, seeking to force turnovers in dangerous areas to regain the impetus.
There have been iterations on the basic formation, and players like Coleman Gannon, Shawn Smart, and Gaoussou Samake have played in numerous positions to make things fit. No one has been more effective nor more versatile than Valentin Noel. The midfielder is emerging as a superstar in the USL, and he’s the rock upon which the Lights are building.
A standout in an Austin FC II team that reached the MLS NEXT Pro finals last season (and one for which Dennis Sanchez was an assistant coach), Noel has been a Swiss Army knife in 2024. He stood out in an all-creation pivot next to JC Ngando to start the campaign, and he didn’t miss a beat after moving into the forward line later on. Las Vegas’ form didn’t exactly improve with Noel and Edison Azcona as dual false nines in a wonky 4-2-4, but the change certainly yielded exciting soccer.
By the numbers, few players have matched Noel this year. With 23 chances created, he’s a top ten provider in the USL. He also knows how to find opportunities of his own, having picked up six goals on 26 shots. That number of attempts also lands the Frenchman solidly within the top ten of the league.
Noel’s scoring has been as varied as it is graceful. Last weekend against Miami, he deftly volleyed home a set piece goal at the far post. In a draw against LouCity, he probed the edge of the box, allowing the wingers in the 4-2-4 to draw attention before slamming home a knockdown. Versus San Antonio, Noel intercepted a pass in the press, then gave-and-went his way into the box to score. All of the finishes highlight the 25-year-old’s premium ability to find space and read defenses.
Given how Khori Bennett (at least before the Miami win) and Riki Alba had struggled in front of goal, #27’s contributions from the striker spot were a crucial makeweight for Las Vegas. Still, I tend to think Noel is at his best as a proper midfielder.
You see why in the examples here. Above, Noel receives in the wake of a clearance after a Miami long ball, softly left-footing his first touch on the turn to lead Las Vegas into the attacking zone.
Watch the way he modulates his speed from there. An initial burst of acceleration takes the Lights past the halfway line, but Noel knows when to stop on a dime to wrong-foot a pursuer on his back side. Scanning from there, Noel jukes another pursuer and plays Ngando into acres of space with an obvious angle to get the ball into the final third.
Those are the plays Noel regularly comes up with as a creator, but they don’t stunt his goalscoring acumen. #27 got on the scoresheet against Miami as mentioned, and he was able to use those gifts of space identification and precision dribbling to find his own shot.
That’s the case above. Noel spaces toward the left sideline to get wide of Miami’s narrow tight 5-3-2, receiving in that space. He immediately turns upfield apace, taking a touch towards the center only when a Miami defender steps up and overcommits. Splitting between that defender and backpressure from a center mid, Noel can find a window in zone 14 to ring a shot off the woodwork.
Carving through a defense in that manner is no mean feat, but Valentin Noel makes plays like that all the time. This season was meant to be a rebuilding year for the Lights, one in which they recovered from years of mismanagement to approach competence. Between Noel and the system that Dennis Sanchez has forged around him, there’s potential for plenty more in 2024.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of FC Tulsa’s shape? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Literally cannot wait for the Tampa Bay-Louisville game this weekend. The Rowdies have been my on-again, off-again darlings as an Eastern contender, and this is a huge chance to prove their mettle against the class of the league after a mixed trip to California. I think they may struggle to defend what LouCity’s able to do with their wingers in the half spaces, but we’ll see.
League One getting to be the USL’s season premier on ESPN2 this weekend rules, and Madison has such a good team and environment to showcase on that stage.
As a veritable Star Wars nerd and a reader of the first three High Republic novels, I’m all in on The Acolyte. Plus, Dafne Keen (the little Wolverine in Logan and, more importantly, Lyra in His Dark Materials) rules.
“Bob Lilley to Nashville” was a fun two hours, eh? I’d frankly expect Ben Pirmann or Danny Cruz to get the nod first if we’re thinking about a USL coach getting a head MLS job, and there seems to be fire behind the Eric Quill-to-Dallas smoke.
See you soon!
The second Marcina regime, of course. Easy to forget that he literally got fired at the airport at the end of his San Antonio Scorpions run.