The Back Four: Roster freeze ratings

Plus tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for North Carolina, Tormenta, and Lexington

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled. I don’t say it enough, but that’s where my best work is - including a look at USL players who have the tools to move to Europe or MLS.

Now, let’s get to it.

Who won the roster freeze?

Even if the USL Championship doesn’t have a formalized transfer window, the September roster freeze, which went into place on Monday, is a time of excitement and activity.

We saw about a dozen players move recent weeks ahead of that shutdown. With that said, who’s set to make the biggest splash?

1.) Rafael Baca to Oakland: There isn’t a single transfer better than the Oakland Roots adding former Cruz Azul and Monterey midfielder Rafael Baca. The Roots’ midfield hasn’t been bad, but it often feels like their weakest area. I think Camden Riley has been exceptional in the pivot, but the rest of the center mids in Oakland have been suspect in one way or another.

Baca gives you something different. He’s a more active and efficient defender than any of his Oakland peers. His poise as a passer is unmatched, whether you need a progressive ball to break lines or more staid tempo-setting. He’s implacable on the dribble. You can imagine a world where Baca’s steadying presence as a No. 6 does wonders for Riley, who’s best when he has the freedom to push ahead.

Massive add for Oakland, who look like they want to push for it all in the West. After a 5-0 shellacking in North Carolina, they need Baca’s surety badly.

2.) Bertin Jacquesson to Pittsburgh: Has Bertin Jacquesson been especially good in MLS NEXT Pro with Real Monarchs? Uh, mixed bag. Do I think Bob Lilley is great at identifying useful players that used to be Pitt Panthers? Most definitely.

Following in the footsteps of Arturo Ordonez, Shane Wiedt, Edward Kizza, and Jackson Walti, the newest member of the ‘Hounds comes with local pedigree. A skillful wide forward with a good right foot, Jacquesson averaged 0.47 xGA as a NEXT Pro rookie in just under 600 minutes. The number has been sliced in half to 0.24 in comparable minutes in 2024.

Still, you can imagine a world where Jacquesson is a slithery partner for Kizza up top, and he proved to be just that on his debut on Saturday. Pressing as the right winger but often making runs toward the left in possession, #51 got himself a debut goal. Just as promising was the sheer level of activity: Jacquesson attempted 16 duels and five take-ons in only 61 minutes. That’s a fit for Lilley-ball if I’ve ever seen one.

3.) Ben Bender to Tampa Bay: Would I call the Rowdies’ midfield a weakness? Certainly not. When you can add a former #1 pick in the MLS Draft - one that put up six assists and made 28 appearances as a 21-year-old rookie - you absolutely do it.

What you like about Bender is his ability to play across the attacking midfield, complementing the forwards ahead of him. Though he didn’t keep nailing down minutes after that stellar year one, the newest Rowdie still gives you massive upside.

Tampa Bay’s best attacking moments come when Manuel Arteaga and Cal Jennings can occupy the central areas, distracting the defense. Then, you get one of the No. 8s in their 3-5-2 making a diagonal run into open space to shoot or offer up a cross.

As you see above, Bender has done so against MLS competition, and he’s got a great stat line when he’s actually getting time. Tampa Bay probably needed to add in different areas, but Bender can be a star all the same.

4.) Omar Grey to San Antonio: Loaned in from the Houston Dynamo, Grey can play as a right back or central defender and fills an obvious hole for injury-riddled SAFC. With Jamaican youth international pedigree and ample MLS NEXT Pro time, Grey clearly has the quality to excel in the USL.

With Dynamo 2 in 2024, Grey averaged 1.9 interceptions and 1.2 tackles per game. Both numbers rank in the 70th percentile or better. The positional flexibility also helps out, lending San Antonio a decent distributor on the right. This year, Grey’s average pass has traveled an average vertical distance of 7.2 yards; that’s 13.2 for Mitchell Taintor, by comparison. Expect an increase as Grey gets comfortable, but the control is there if Alen Marcina needs it.

Grey’s versatility paid off handsomely in his debut match. Starting at right back in a foursome before becoming a wing back in an extremely defensive 5-3-2, the loanee put in 10 clearances (seven headed) and never put a foot wrong. Opposing Monterey’s best moves came down San Antonio’s left, opposite of Grey, for a reason. He looks like a smart add already.

5.) Matthew Bell to Tulsa: So, I really like Bell’s game in a vacuum. Mostly used as a winger, the 5’10” Bell was a top-ten draft pick last year, and he’s got 4.5 xG and 3.0 xA in about 1,500 minutes as a NEXT Pro rookie. At the same time, almost a third of those expected goals have come off of set pieces - hardly sustainable for someone who isn’t really a target man.

Moreover, I don’t know what need this fills for Tulsa. Aaron Bibout and Stefan Stojanovic seem settled up top, and Faysal Bettache or Boubacar Diallo can hold down the right with a proper level of variety. Bell started out wide last Friday, and he only attempted eight passes in more than 60 minutes of action. Charged with sitting somewhat narrow to open overlaps (a classic Diallo job!), Bell was visibly uncomfortable.

We’ll see what gives in the weeks ahead. Tulsa have lost their momentum in a big way, and I’m not sure their loan addition is enough to turn the tide. Give me Arthur Rogers back…

6.) Christian Volesky (back!) to Monterey: Would it be a Monterey season without Christian Volesky? Absolutely not. Over the winter, the veteran forward signed a deal with Halifax in the Canadian Premiership that included a 2025 option, but that didn’t really work out. Now, he’s back for a third year in Salinas after contributing to more than 20 goals across his last stint.

I think Volesky is fine in a vacuum. He’s never going to dominate a game or look particularly skillful on the ball, but he can poach nicely enough; see a 20% conversion rate last year. Though Volesky isn’t mobile in the way you’d want within Jordan Stewart’s 3-2-5ish attack, you aren’t mad at the addition. I’d be excited if we saw him pair with Tristan Trager in a proper strike duo, but that doesn’t seem to be Monterey’s system these days.

7.) Harvey Neville to Sacramento: Harvey Neville is everyone’s favorite nepo baby coming to Sacramento to be a depth piece, no two ways about it. He got a cup of coffee on loan with Loudoun last year and actually put up very solid creative numbers, to the tune of 1.2 chances created and 2.5 crosses per games. Still, if he has to start in place of Jack Gurr at any point, Sacramento is probably cooked.

I didn’t think much of the right back in his prior USL stint, and he was an object of derision for Inter Miami supporters in MLS. That image entirely undersells the fact that Neville has honed his game significantly in the lower leagues. Building on the Loudoun loan with Timbers 2 this year, he’s putting up 0.21 xA and 1.5 key passes per match. That equates to someone like Hartford’s Emmanuel Samadia (who just got an international call-up) or Phoenix’s Gabi Torres. Given the injury troubles for Jonathan Ricketts, Neville is actually a solid choice to fill out the squad, even if he doesn’t really improve this team immediately.

8.) Hayden White & Brem Soumaoro to Indy: The Eleven have made a few transfers in the last week or two, and I’m universally wary. I think Hayden White and Brem Soumaoro have plenty to offer, and they’ve both shown flashes in limited game time, but their inclusion in Indy’s lineup bodes poorly for this club’s playoff hopes.

Start with White, a veteran of the English lower leagues. He started at right back in a 4-3-3 two weeks back and as an outside defender in a draw at Hartford last Saturday. Between the two games, White won three tackles and made six ball recoveries (good!) but didn’t attempt a single dribble and went long on 20% of his passes (less good!). His inclusion has shunted Ben Ofeimu - a player I adore - into more conservative positions that limit Indy’s upside in possession.

It’s the same argument for Soumaoro, who showed off a keen instinct for covering space on his debut over the weekend but doesn’t project as a useful passer. Used in the pivot next to Aodhan Quinn, he went backwards or sideways on 24 of his 31 passes. If you were building a team from scratch, a safe No. 6 in Soumaoro’s mold is legit. If you’re benching Cam Lindley for such a player, I’m baffled.

The Soumaoro move also saw Max Schneider, a proto-Lindley at the No. 8 spot, return to Omaha for a second loan stint of 2024. Maybe McAuley doesn’t believe in Schneider, but Indy’s throwing money all over the place without much obvious intention as they plummet in the table.

N/A.) Richard Sanchez to San Antonio: San Antonio needed a goalkeeper as a matter of necessity. Both Kendall McIntosh and Pablo Sisniega are out, and an emergency goalie was required lest this team start a teenager. Enter Sanchez, who literally didn’t have to make one single save while keeping a clean sheet on his debut against Monterey.

Because of the context, I’m giving this one an “N/A” rank. If I was mean, I would point out that Sanchez had a historically awful 2023. You can see the top- and bottom-five goalkeeping seasons in the USL since 2017 above, with Sanchez slotting in at the fifth-worst season during that run.

If history is indication, protecting the ex-Hartford man will be key. Given the showing in California and knowing how Alen Marcina can organize a defense, the plan may just work out.

Rampant Railhawks

In their return campaign in the USL Championship, North Carolina FC has been exceptionally good as a defensive unit. They’ve allowed 30.8 xG this season, the second-lowest mark in the entire league. Defense literally won them a championship last year, and now it’s making NCFC successful in the second tier.

What’s been less consistent is this club’s attack. There’ve rotated the three forwards that anchor John Bradford’s 3-4-3 quite often. Star acquisitions like Rodrigo Da Costa failed to hit the ground running, and youngsters like Julian Placias earned early starts to attract transfer suitors. The result has been an exactly median xG offense.

The calculus has changed in recent weeks. Since the start of August, this team has put up 1.8 xG per game, and they’ve hung nine goals on their last two opponents. Finally, offense and defense are combining to make NCFC a major end-to-end-threat.

Everything about this North Carolina team starts with their high back line. Bradford sits his defensive group a few yards behind the center circle, compressing space and daring opponents to work over the top. The system makes it hard for NCFC’s foes to find space.

That setup has a useful knock-on effect: it shortens the distance between North Carolina and the goal after recoveries. Say that Paco Craig, for instance, intercepts a pass from the center back spot. Instead of being pinned inside his own 18-yard box with no choice but to lump a clearance, Craig is close enough to the midfield and attacking lines to hit a controlled pass. This is true of every player in the North Carolina defense.

Of course, that eased ability to counter would be useless without the right talent to pay off such opportunities. North Carolina benefits from quick defense-to-offense transitions from Ezra Armstrong and Rafa Mentzingen out wide, for instance. Most crucially, it’s striker Oalex Anderson that has emerged as the USL’s premier No. 9 on the break.

Anderson entered the weekend as the second-leading player in the USL in terms of expected goals from fast breaks. 36% of his contributions this year have come from such scenarios. Blessed with a preternatural sense for cherry-picking opportunities after turnovers, the Vincentian striker is incredibly quick on his feet and can hit a shot in stride. He’s built for the counter.

That Anderson ranks fairly lowly in almost every defensive category is a feature rather than a bug. His job is to deny space and force passes into overloaded defensive pockets, not to terrorize opponents as a presser. You see that in the initial screenshot, with the No. 9 splitting the gap between defenders to deny a change of point.

Focusing solely on Anderson misses the all-encompassing quality of North Carolina’s system. This team is so good because they have half-a-dozen players capable of beating you in behind. Saturday’s 5-0 rout against Oakland was proof of that fact.

North Carolina didn’t stray from the usual look against Oakland, but their higher 3-4-3 press - an aggressive look leveraging higher-placed wing backs - took the Roots to task all the same. Turnovers abounded in the central areas. NCFC ended the night with 12 defensive actions in the attacking half and a whopping 27 ball recoveries in the middle and final thirds.

Forcing turnovers in extremely dangerous positions was a boon. Sans Anderson, North Carolina was able to activate their more patient and technical creators in record time. You see that playing out in the screenshot, with the front three of Louis Perez, Evan Conway, and Rodrigo Da Costa (circled in blue; Da Costa with an arrow) spaced perfectly across lanes. Perez, the left winger, handles the ball with Armstrong (in red) overlapping to his side. The flurry of motion creates humongous gaps within the Roots’ defense.

As long as the high line holds - and it has all season long! - North Carolina is a team to be feared. Their recent goalscoring form feels like the result of a patient process. Even if they aren’t scoring four times a week, they’ve made significant strides that ought to push them into the playoffs.

Lessons for Lexington

Lexington entered the matchweek undefeated in their last six games¹ and still sit oh-so-close to a playoff spot according to my latest modeling. Darren Powell just won his first League One Coach of the Month award, and his side is locked and loaded for a post-Georgetown future.

It’s a tired narrative that Lexington splashed on League One’s priciest roster but couldn’t back it up. Those players have started to find form, and they’ve kept Lexington in the mix. With seven games to play, what is this club getting right, and how can they stave off more results like a 5-1 drubbing against NoCo?

It’s important to underline that Lexington isn’t lighting the world on fire. Entering this weekend, their three-game rolling xG margin had crept over zero by a fraction of a percent. That just-above-par improvement preceded a rapturous -3.8 xG margin against the Hailstorm which undid all the progress. One step forward, 3.8 steps back.

Still, even if Lexington is wishy-washy, they’ve made important defensive strides. Jorge Corrales’ contributions have underpinned much of the improvement. After beginning his pro career in the NASL and splitting time between FC Tulsa and MLS, the 33-year-old Corrales has become Lexington’s captain in his first season in Kentucky. Variously used as a left back or a central defender, he’s become a key cog in Powell’s 3-4-3 shape.

What does Corrales add? In a recent draw against Madison, it was the Cuban’s defensive acumen that stood out. Limited to three interceptions and no tackle attempts on paper, Corrales was error-free tracking Juan Galindrez and keeping the high-powered forward in his back pocket. Whether the Madison man was cutting inside from the wing or trying to hold up possession, Corrales slowed him down and allowed Lexington to maintain their shape.

That Corrales went 57 for 62 on his pass attempts in that game and 67 for 74 a week later versus Chattanooga is the other major skill he brings to the table. Whether sliding a pass down the left sideline or cutting onto his right foot to penetrate the defense or hit a switch, Corrales is a premier table-setter from the back. His do-it-all presence has allowed players like Nico Brown and Alexis Cerritos the utmost freedom further ahead on the left wing.

You see an example of Corrales’ attacking decision-making above, moments before Lexington would take a lead on Chattanooga. Operating as the left-sided member of the back three, #12 is allowed to sneak further upfield. Because Lexington has three players at the back, one has the freedom to step up.

Cerritos, seen near the sideline, is the obvious pass, but what’s to gain by hitting him? At best, Cerritos can try and dribble past two Chattanooga defenders on the turn. At worst, he immediately passes back to Corrales, who would then be in a worse position.

Corrales rejects that option. Instead, he spots Ates Diouf (who isn’t even visible in the frame) dropping to the 35-yard line or thereabouts. When Diouf receives, he draws both of those circled Red Wolves defenders his way. The defense will scramble against Diouf, and only then is Cerritos open.

The result? The goal you see here. You start with Diouf, drive into Cerritos and Brown at the sideline, and get a cross to goal in the end. None of it is possible without Corrales’ vision at the start of it all.

That’s the good. What went so, so wrong on Saturday?

A change of system was largely responsible for the 5-1 massacre against Northern Colorado. Lexington opted for a 4-1-4-1 shape instead of the usual back five, and they were eaten alive by their high-powered opponents.

The beauty of having an additional central defender is how it provides extra cover. We’ve seen how Corrales has been maximized as a creator, but the surety has also done wonders for Modesto Mendez on the right side. Mendez likes to step up defensively, and he got seven recoveries against Madison. It’s analogous to Corrales’ freedom, just on the opposite side of the ball.

Against Hailstorm, Mendez’ aggression was lethal. Because Abel Caputo was isolated as the lone No. 6, the Cuban defender needed to step up next to him, but he did so without coverage in behind. NoCo was ruthless about punishing Mendez in behind whenever possible.

Above, you see Lexington’s second concession in action. The Kentuckians have played a lofted pass toward Corrales at left back, and the Hailstorm’s Bruno Rendon is on the verge of an interception. The real trouble emerges further back: Mendez is split extremely wide to the right, meaning that Rendon is about to look up and have three passing options against that lone defensive mid.

The spatial relationships are all wrong, and the defensive support never arrives. Darren Powell had previously done so, so well to avoid these exact issues. By maximizing Corrales and sticking to a double pivot, back three shape, he seemingly had found the answer for Lexington. The Hailstorm game is a stark reminder that Powell can’t hew from that formula if this team wants a shot at the postseason.

Diamond, rather rough

Tormenta is in 4-3-3 mode these days, but their variations on the look haven’t ended a six-game streak without a regulation win. Now out of the Jagermeister Cup, it’s unclear if the new shape in Statesboro is enough to maintain the eighth seed.

The issue has come in attack, and shape changes haven’t been a cure-all. Ian Cameron mostly ran with a 4-4-2 previously, at least through arecent game against Richmond where Tormenta only put up 0.60 xG. The returns since then haven’t been much better: Tormenta put up 0.62 xG against the Hailstorm and 0.43 against Knoxville, a match where the 4-3-3 was a borderline 4-4-2 diamond. Either way, those are brutal numbers.

The poor returns have come in spite of a 58.7% possession average in the last three matches. South Georgia can keep the ball, but using it is the problem.

As Tormenta’s heatmap from the Northern Colorado loss makes clear, the 4-3-3 allows this team to get to the edge of the final third, but it offers seldom little penetration. The new shape promotes side-to-side passing without any punch further ahead. The trend continued in the Knoxville match, where South Georgia only attempted 22 passes into zone 14, completing just 59% of them.

Even in the final third, connection has been a struggle. Tormenta is a combined five for 34 on cross attempts from open play in their last two matches. We see the death of touches in the box in the heatmap, which is a direct result of that imprecision.

Conservatism isn’t helping the cause. South Georgia’s risk appetite is misaligned, resulting in sideways distribution that slows the tempo and allows opposing defenses to get set. Nobody in the midfield wants to turn the ball over; nobody wants to take a risk.

Since the start of August, Tormenta is tops in League One with an 86% pass completion percentage and a mere 5.1 vertical yards per pass. Being accurate is good, but being safe and unambitious isn’t. Right now, this team is safer and less ambitious than any other team in the division. Tormenta can’t find the sweet spot.

Still, the goal is to find the right moments to test a defense. Here, you see the basic diamond shape at the start of a transition move against Knoxville. Aaron Walker possesses on the right side of the midfield, flanked by Daniel Steedman and Mason Tunbridge; all three are called out in magenta.

As Walker looks upfield, he has a few choices. A sidways pass to one of the center mids is the safest pick. Niall Watson, a forward circled in navy, is the ambitious choice as he sears up the right sideline. Meanwhile, Ajmeer Spengler - the No. 10, circled in magenta - is in the Goldilocks zone as a progressive but attainable choice right down the middle.

Walker goes for broke in the end, overcooking a ball to Watson to kill Tormenta’s attacking momentum. South Georgia doesn’t get very many counters in this manner, but they’re overly wasteful and inadequately discerning when they do. This is a prime example.

The slowness, meanwhile, makes it hard to break down defenses even when Tormenta’s best creatorss find touches in good areas.

Take another example, this one from the Northern Colorado game. Here, Tormenta has successfully moved into the attacking zone, and right back Callum Stretch has played a pass toward Sebastian Vivas as the proxy at the No. 10 spot. Vivas is a traditional striker, but he was willing to drop into space against the Hailstorm; that’s the “diamond” principle showing up.

As Vivas drops, he draws a center back with him. Watson, again the right winger and again circled in navy, spots what’s happening. He makes a goal-side run between two opposing defenders, wrong-siding the Hailstorm player that’s closing on Vivas to find a hole. It’s a splendid run, but Vivas - who created no chances against NoCo - can’t hit him on the first-time pass to come.

Both moves I’ve highlighted here are examples of blown opportunities. The upside? Tormenta is creating opportunities in the first place! This team feels like they’ve got a framework in place, but the execution isn’t up to par. South Georgia has room to figure things out given how good the Jake Dengler/Preston Kilwien duo has been, but they need to find their offensive gear quickly before the playoff race slips out of their fingers.

Threads!

I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for Colorado Springs’ massacre of Tampa Bay? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.

• Louisville - Loudoun (9/7)

• New Mexico - Miami (9/7)

• Phoenix - Tulsa (9/7)

• Hartford - Indy (9/8)

• Pittsburgh - Rhode Island (9/8)

• Charleston - Sacramento (9/8)

• North Carolina - Oakland (9/8)

• El Paso - Detroit (9/8)

• Monterey - San Antonio (9/8)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Hartford Athletic’s camera angle is increasingly problematic if you’re trying to do what I do. It’s fairly low to the ground, and it’s zoomed within an inch of its life. I seriously don’t remember this being an issue in seasons past? Maybe I was just bullshitting my way along, but it feels nigh impossible to say anything constructive about a Hartford home game at this point.

  

  Like, compare March’s angle (top) to that of last weekend (bottom). Shedding real tears.

• Hey, check out the USL League One “Race to the Playoffs” page! A very cool guy who isn’t overextending himself for a soccer hobby has stats there!

• I’ve been on a binge of Akira Kurosawa movies over the last month and a half, and it’s hard to overstate how spectacularly fantastic he was. The range of epic social commentaries (go watch High & Low right now!) to sharp, funny samurai films (Yojimbo, Sanjuro) to historical epics (Throne of Blood, Kagemusha) is a feat on its own. When you consider the Shakespeare influence, the fact that Kurosawa was his own editor, the Mifune relationship, and everything else, there’s probably not a more fascinating and talented artist in the last half-century.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover photo credit: North Carolina FC / Instagram

1. Again, I refuse to count Jagermeister penalties. Sue me.