The Back Four: re-tools, re-positionings, and Rufe

Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Phoenix, Birmingham, Monterey, and Tormenta

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.

Now, let’s get to it.

Good Luck Charlie

Every move that Phoenix Rising makes these days is going to be received with some level of skepticism and vitriol. I’m not here to scold supporters for that mentality. What I am here to do is emphasize one thing: Charlie Dennis is a transformational signing.

Dennis won’t automatically make you a title contender. Soccer isn’t that kind of game, and there isn’t a single player in the USL that meets such a lofty descriptor. However, the 28-year-old brings the qualities that raise a club’s floor significantly. Between stops at FC Tucson, the Oakland Roots, and the Tampa Bay Rowdies, Dennis has shown time and again that he’s an all-league weapon.

In his two full USL Championship seasons, Dennis illustrated an ability to excel in multiple roles. There’s been criticism of his season in Oakland as being something of a red flag, but that misunderstands the context.¹ For one, the Englishman was making the transition up the pyramid. For another, he was asked to play a deeper, supporting role in attack.

Dennis’ stats during that 2022 campaign plainly paint the picture of an effective player. With the Roots, Dennis usually started as the right winger in a 3-4-3 or in a midfield pivot next to new Rising teammate Jose Hernandez. Indeed, that Oakland team was full of future Phoenicians including Alejandro Fuenmayor, Dariusz Formella, Juan Azocar, and Edgardo Rito.

Oakland’s offense ran through the pairing of Azocar and Rito on the wings, using their pace and verticality to stretch defenses. Thus, Dennis’ role wasn’t that of a stand-and-deliver No. 10. While he often started in a forward’s role on paper, he usually dropped low to draw the defense out and open space in behind. The statistical result? Excellent creation (see 0.24 xA per match) and a penchant for progressive passing (3.6 yards forward per attempt) well above the standard at his spot.

You see a build-out sequence in action here, with the Roots settled in their 3-4-3 moving from the right side of the image to the left. Dennis is shown dropping into the half space, forcing the defense to respect him as a possible receiver.

If Dennis gets a touch here, he has options: the Englishman beat opponents on the dribble once per match in the East Bay, and that mark undersells how strong he looked as a carrier from his own half. That’s the sort of quality that bends opposing shapes. A defense needs to respect Dennis when and wherever he gets the ball. It’s part of why Rito and Azocar combined for 15 goals from the wing back spots.

Earning a move to Tampa Bay because of his excellent Championship debut, Dennis returned to the more advanced role that made him a double-digit scorer in Tucson in 2021. The Rowdies were usually a 4-2-3-1 team in the early part of the season, and Dennis was their No. 10 within that framework.

I’d argue that using Dennis like that maximizes his gifts. The Englishman is 6’2” and unafraid to get physical. He won 63 aerial duels between 2022 and 2023, and his overall duel win rate ranked in the top 10% of USL midfielders. Dennis could operate like a secondary aerial threat in Tampa Bay, and the heightened positioning also liberated his bold but precise tools as a shooter.

In dead ball situations, the 28-year-old is as elite as they come. Since moving to the Championship, he’s put in 0.95 key passes per 90 minutes on set pieces alone. Overall, he’s one of two USL players to generate more than 5.0 xA in dead ball situations. Rising have had good set piece takers in the past, but Dennis is truly elite.

What did Dennis look like in action within that the Rowdies’ 4-2-3-1? Above, you see an example of Dennis and another recurring teammate, Laurence Wyke, crunching an opponent on the end of a header. Their contributions allow Tampa Bay to retain possession, and Dennis takes a quick-twitch strike as soon as he gets a touch, thereby forcing a corner.

That instinct around the box is on further display in the second clip. As the Rowdies break into the final third, Dennis makes a far post run that tweaks the shape into a 4-2-4. He’s fearless moving into the box and pursuing a cross, even if the result isn’t a goal. Still, who on the Phoenix squad makes these sorts of runs right now? Hell, which strikers for Rising are that aggressive on the regular?

In the final play, Dennis anchors the high press and helps to limit angles down the middle. Receiving after a turnover is forced, he keeps his head up and confidently snakes through the defense to drag a defender narrow. That’s intentional: his dribbling opens a lane for an overlapping winger, and he meets that space with a beautifully weighted through ball to earn an assist.

Now, there are a few elephants in the room to address.

If you’re Tampa Bay, why dump a player like Charlie Dennis? I tend to think he’s a victim of regime change. Robbie Neilson came into the club this winter needing to identify a core and establish an identity, and Dennis was still nursing an injury during the crucial points in that process. He was mostly used as a high No. 8 or a proper forward in a 3-5-2 this year, but both spots are deep for Tampa Bay.

Phoenix surely came in with a handsome offer for a former all-league player, one who was surplus to requirements in Florida. Josh Perez and Daniel Crisostomo have been more than capable in the midfield; Nate Worth and Cristian Ortiz both need minutes as young and developing players. Why not sell Dennis and let the nascent Neilson core keep on cooking?

Back in the Rising camp, Dennis’ ongoing deployment - and what it means relative to the suspended-for-vague-disciplinary-reasons Panos Armenakas² - is fascinating. We saw Dennis debut as an aggressive No. 8 in a three-man midfield against El Paso last Friday, and I thought that he stole the show. Yes, the Locomotive midfield is a travesty, but the new Rising man was terrific as a carrier, heady in his movement, and knew how to modulate speed and take risks with a wonderfully keen eye.

With Dennis and Damien Barker John (a speedy, tricky winger on loan from Mark Lowry’s Real Monarchs) in the mix, Phoenix can viably run their wonky 4-2-3-1 with phase-based shape changes or go for a proper 3-4-3. You see that mapped above, and the flexibility arises because of Barker John’s speed and Dennis’ overall excellence.

Still, the impending Armenakas exit is going to hurt. The No. 10 is a fan favorite, and his acquisition partway through 2023 was critical to Rising’s title run. I don’t think there’s a single player with more talent and vision as a passer than Panos Armenians. Moreover, as much as I love what Rising have done in the market, they’re in a bad place relative to fan relations. Selling a player like Armenakas, subject of large “Free Panos” banners last week, will only deepen the chasm.

It’s a fascinating time in the Valley in every sense. If you’re running the team, you hope that winning can be a cure-all. That’s no guarantee, but Phoenix is making smart moves to at least make it a possibility.

Rufe and ceilings

If you listen to the USL Show, you’ll know that Birmingham-based host Kaylor Hodges and I love to heap praise on Jake Rufe whenever possible. The Legion midfielder is the sort of unsung glue guy that we love to spotlight, and he’s genuinely been crucial for Tommy Soehn’s tactical tweaks this year. For my taste, Rufe is the best piece to examine if you’re trying to take the Legion’s temperature as a whole.

The Legion have become a 4-3-3 team for the past few months, using Rufe on the right side of a midfield shared with Kobe Hernandez-Foster in the center and Dawson McCartney on the left. McCartney, a winger in previous stops, is given the most freedom to roam; Hernandez-Foster has all the technique necessary to serve as a deep-lying initiator. That leaves Rufe as the energetic, chippy counterbalance that picks up where they leave off.

The shape change coincided with Derek Dodson’ arrival on loan from Minnesota United. Arguably the best traditional right back in the entire USL, Dodson can aggressively push upfield because of the cover Rufe provides. Say the right back wants to overlap? Rufe is more than happy to sit back and defend if needed.

We’ve seen variations in Birmingham’s pressing intensity depending on the matchup, and #13 is more than willing to step very high - almost into a front four - if he’s asked to man mark a given foe. The Legion have been a bit more staid as of late, and Rufe’s role has evolved in turn, but he’s up for whatever task Soehn assigns him.

That’s what you’re seeing here. In the first example, both McCartney and Hernandez-Foster have stepped wide to the left wing. Rufe wisely sits back, and he’s got a patch of ground to cover that you could drive a truck through. Still, watch the reaction. An initial deflection helps his cause, but #13 never dallies as he recovers against a shifting point of attack.

By the time the ball reaches the opposite sideline, Rufe has closed down, and he never lets the Colorado Springs winger beat him around the edge to get a good look at the box. You don’t see the 28-year-old intervene here, but he’s very good in the tackle as well - he went 2-for-2 in the Switchbacks game, 5-for-6 against Rhode Island, and rates in the 90th percentile for efficiency in 2024 as a whole.

The second play illustrates Rufe’s give and take with Dodson. The Switchbacks build down the left, with their winger zagging to get behind the advancing full back. Dodson steps up against the ball carrier, so #13 tracks that runner and essentially takes on the right back mantle. We’ve seen Rufe start as a proper defender many times in the past, and we’re seeing those instincts here.

What are Rufe’s limitations, and what do they mean for Birmingham at large?

For one, he’s a middling passer who can slow down moves. Rufe rates in the bottom third of USL center mids for passing volume and passing accuracy. In the example above, his pass to the sideline is behind Dodson and kills an attacking sequence at its onset. There are moments where Rufe can be surprisingly bright as a risk-taking distributor, but Birmingham usually must to rely on Hernandez-Foster as a sole initiator or drag Alex Crognale out of the back line to make up the difference.

That same sloppiness informs the second play, a sequence that ends with Rhode Island’s game-winning goal from last Wednesday. Here, the Legion have moved into a 4-2-4, and the burden on Rufe to do it all in the midfield is too great. It’s #13’s turnover that starts the RIFC break, and he can’t get back to stop the goal.

Tommy Soehn doesn’t get enough credit for the brilliant way he’s mixed up his system and lineups in 2024. Unexpected injuries and imbalances could’ve derailed Birmingham’s season, but that ability to adapt - with Rufe as a versatile - has been nothing but impressive. It isn’t always perfect, but Jake Rufe and the Legion have the intensity and flexibility to make noise in the East so long as they know their strengths and limit their weaknesses.

Monterey’s forwards

Over the entirety of 2024, Monterey are a top-ten xG offense in the USL, but a lot of that success came during a red-hot stretch to kick off campaign. This team is mustering just 1.1 xG per 90 minutes since the start of June, which puts them fourth-from-bottom in the division.

Monterey has been uniquely wracked by injuries in the forward line this season. Tristan Trager has missed time, Luther Archimede barely got rolling before suffering a serious knee injury in May, and Chase Boone suffered a similar fate a month after Archimede. Next-man-up grit and the continuing excellence of stalwarts like Morey Doner and Rafael Baca have kept Monterey in the mix, but it’s been a rocky road all the while.

The numbers make it clear that Frank Yallop’s side has been a one-man show when it comes to a scoring threat. Trager has put up more than seven expected goals, ranking him in the top dozen or so players in the USL in less than 1,000 minutes of game time. Look past Trager, however, and you won’t find another Monterey player on the leaderboard and until you hit Alex Dixon in 49th place with a modest 3.3 expected goals.

Something was needed to vary Monterey’s threat, and the club hit the market to meet that challenge. Enter Ousseni Bouda, a forward loaned in from the San Jose Earthquakes a few weeks back; more on the loan issue later.

The 24-year-old Bouda put up a sizzling seven-goal, three-assist statline in just 10 matches in MLS NEXT Pro last year, but he’s more of a second striker than a classic No. 9 despite the finishing prowess. Indeed, Bouda ranked in the 80th percentile or better for cross completions and chances created in NEXT Pro. He also recovered possession in the final third at a 96th percentile clip. Pressing, creation, and precise poaching evidently weren’t enough to earn regular MLS time - and that was to Monterey’s benefit.

The future is cloudy now; it relies on Bouda staying in Monterey after a loan recall. San Jose used Bouda for 13 minutes off the bench this weekend while their USL counterparts was on a bye. If he’s not sent back, that’s a shame. If he is, it could be transformational for Monterey.

We’ve only seen 29 minutes of Bouda and Trager together so far, but they’ve got the feeling of a potentially lethal duo. In that limited sample, Bouda has taken on a slightly deeper role while Trager operates further ahead and actively tries to bend the opposing defense.

You see that above in a few examples. None are especially fruitful, but they all illustrate the burgeoning relationship. The first play shows a long ball over the top, one where Trager isolates a center back as Bouda sits back to potentially field a knockdown. #9 ultimately wins possession, albeit to little effect.

In the second case, Monterey is on the break, and their new loanee stretches to the left wing where a hole has arisen. Able to cut in onto his stronger right foot, Bouda keeps his head up and eyes a right-to-left run from Trager that absolutely eats the defense alive. Opposing Tulsa commits to Trager, a late-arriving Alex Dixon cuts behind him, and it’s a beautiful pass from Bouda that connects the dots and nearly puts Monterey ahead.

There’s one more example featuring a long ball, one that Bouda (who only won 35% of his aerial duels in MLS NEXT Pro) heads on to Trager. The chemistry and direction aren’t in sync, but it’s still a semi-dangerous entrance into the opposing box. These plays will only get sharper and more coherent if Trager and Bouda can keep feeling each other out.

If things break right, Yallop has a good problem to solve: how can you get Trager and Bouda onto the field together while maintaining that exceptional Baca-Fehr-Rebollar midfield? Assuming the loanee comes back, Monterey is blessed with the gift of tactical options and goalscoring diversity. 2024 already felt like a major step up for this club, but the nascent connection between Ousseni Bouda and Tristan Trager has a chance to take Monterey a step further into contention.

Pedro Fonseca’s evolution

Two weeks back, Tormenta got off the schneid with a late Pedro Fonseca winner to break a six-match winless run. In that match against Lexington, the star forward nabbed a goal and an assist, didn’t put a pass wrong in 90 minutes, and carved out five shooting opportunities.

Though Tormenta bombed out of the Jagermeister Cup this weekend, they edged Charlotte on penalties and got another sterling showing from Fonseca. He created a sole chance on 50 touches, but he also took five shots - a quarter of his club’s total haul - while operating as a supporting forward. That’s an indelible impact, even if it didn’t show up on the scoresheet.

For a South Georgia team that runs hot and cold in attack, Fonseca is the player that must be clicking to find the back of the net. What makes Fonseca special, and why is he so crucial to this club?

In League One play, the 27-year-old ranks third in xG, a fraction behind Lyam MacKinnon and Leo Castro for the league lead. Like MacKinnon, Fonseca has done so without playing as his team’s proper striker for the most part - win over Lexington in a 3-5-2 notwithstanding. Even so, his position is different as compared to 2023.

Kazaiah Sterling, Arthur Bosua, and Mukwelle Akale powered this team up top last year, and a vacuum was created with their exits., Fonseca has admirably stepped up to become a threat (rather than a facilitator) in attacking situations. The Brazilian isn’t a poacher, and he isn’t trying to be, but he has more than doubled to 0.48 xG per match.

The 27-year-old has lost abilities to link from deeper spots in the process. Indeed, Fonseca is down from 1.38 chances created per game in 2023 to a subpar 0.8 year-over-year. Fonseca’s overall pass completion rate has fallen by more than 3% to boot. Playing further upfield was necessary; it’s not bad, it’s just different.

Why has the shift worked? For me, it’s because Pedro Fonseca is a player with elite instincts and spatial awareness. What we’ve seen from Fonseca as a runner in forward roles is promising, and it could prove crucial as Tormenta seek consistency for the home stretch of the campaign.

Above, you’ve got three instances of South Georgia overloading the left side while #10 probes in the right half space or zone 14. In each case, Fonseca stands ready to pounce like a lion. He goes unmet in the first case as his teammates turn the ball over, but the second example is better: Fonseca slices to the near post across the body of a defender and gets a chance on goal.

Note the variation in the third and final play. This time, Tormenta plays a cross much earlier in the sequence, finding Fonseca and wing back Josh Ramos in what’s almost a two-on-two on the weak side. #10 controls with his chest against the momentum of a recovering defender and hits a shot before the ball even settles.

Instinct, decisiveness, and skill: it’s all there.

The creative changes are still worth examining. Fonseca put up 3.2 xA last year, and he’s on pace to generate just 36% of that number in 2024. The Louisville grad’s dribbles are down by 33% as well. What #10 did in deep areas was tremendous, and there’s been a missing link in the chain as he’s moved further ahead.

Above, you see Fonseca as a center mid in Tormenta’s 5-3-2 shape in 2023. In this match - a crushing win over Madison - the attacker played fluidly between the lines, but his average touch was much closer to halfway than to the box. Depth could be a virtue, but Fonseca knew when to push up as a late runner or as an overloading presser. His pressing allows Tormenta to recover the ball and his creation tees up a jaw-dropping through in the example.

Again, things haven’t gotten worse, but they’ve certainly evolved. Ian Cameron must’ve expected players like Conor Doyle to make a more immediate impact in build; he and Daniel Steedman have belatedly formed a connection in the pivot that’s making things click. As Tormenta have improved in the midfield and maximized Callum Stretch and Preston Kilwien as outside defenders, they’ve inched forward in possession.

With the cup out of the way and the pieces falling into place, this club feels ready for the stretch run in the league. Tormenta has played more matches than anyone and will be on the defensive, but Pedro Fonseca’s attacking quality may be just the thing to keep them afloat in the playoff hunt.

Threads!

Truncated set of recaps this week because of travel, and I’m taking a week off from the USL Tactics Show for the same reason. Back to the usual tempo next week.

• Birmingham - Rhode Island (7/17)

• Charleston - Miami (7/19)

• North Carolina - Detroit (7/19)

• Louisville - Colorado Springs (7/19)

• Phoenix - El Paso (7/19)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Hopefully y’all checked out the USL Show’s live content from Sacramento’s win in Oakland! I had an absolute blast, and I want to thank Tommy Hodul for making things come together. He couldn’t have been nicer or more helpful, and the same goes for Camden Riley, Niall Logue, Rodrigo Lopez, Mark Briggs, the RootsBlog gang, and everyone else who took the time to chat with me. Be on the lookout for some ex post facto travel content.

• Related: I’m absolutely exhausted.

• Didn’t get a chance to recap the Tampa Bay win this week on Twitter (check Backheeled for a deep dive!), but it was a masterclass from Aaron Guillen and Jordan Doherty out of the back three. Those two are just brilliant, and they shut down an Indy team that was set up to test the Rowdies on paper.

• I rewatched Dances with Wolves last Saturday, and I think there’s a real argument it’s got the best score ever in a movie.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover photo credit: Kiera Winslow

1. …in which he lived and all that came before him. 🥥🌴

2. I won’t get into the off-field stuff, but y’all should follow Owain Evans and watch the latest from PHNX for more on the nasty state of affairs in Phoenix.