The Back Four: Playoff odds and the Stone decision
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Phoenix, Pittsburgh, and Madison
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.
Now, let’s get to it.
Regime change for Rising
Choosing to fire your manager is never an easy call. Phoenix Rising gave Danny Stone half a season and decided that enough was enough this Saturday.
The outcry from the Phoenix fanbase was swift and decisive. Though Rising have began the year inconsistency, the feeling was that Stone - a tenured assistant prior to his promotion - hadn’t been supported properly. Much of the blame fell to the front office for failing to provide the resources needed to get the job done.
Those arguments bear weight. Stone was a rookie manager who had a short preseason in the wake of Juan Guerra’s exit. His assistants, Diego Gomez and Darnell King, were well-considered but didn’t provide executive-level mentorship.
In terms of the roster, Phoenix lost two Golden Boot contenders in Danny Trejo and Manuel Arteaga as well as elite center mid Carlos Harvey. None have been adequately replaced. Remi Cabral leads the team with six goals at striker, but his 22% conversion rate lags both of his predecessors. Harvey was replaced by committee, and while I love JP Scearce and see elite potential in Giulio Doratiotto, they haven’t recreated the impact of the USL’s best No. 8.
Stone’s job was never going to be easy even before you considered the losses. Yes, Rising won a championship in 2023, but they finished sixth in the regular season with the USL’s tenth-best xG margin. Take away three of that team’s best players, throw in an inexperienced manager, and you’re left with a tall task.
Let’s set aside the off-field considerations. What went wrong on the pitch to doom the rookie manager, and how can Phoenix improve?
Inadequacy in the final third has been Phoenix’s cardinal sin. Per American Soccer Analysis, Rising have garnered the third-least goals added (G+) via passing in the USL while in the offensive zone. Their shooting has ranked in the bottom half of the league as well. Rising’s creation and conversion have been deleterious by any standard.
What’s the problem? A sub-10% conversion rate is an obvious thing to blame. Neither Cabral nor Dariusz Formella has been good enough in front of net.
Stone’s inability to spotlight his best creators has been more detrimental. Panos Armenakas only has 12 starts and has been subbed out of eight matches; he still has created 42% more chances than any other Rising player. Fede Varela is occasionally incisive as a No. 10 but feels lost too frequently. The rest of the group has shown flashes - think about Emil Cuello’s pressing in Rhode Island or Juan Azocar’s inverted shifts on the left - but haven’t been deployed with any clear sense of intention.
The midfield pivot is this squad’s Achilles’ heel, and the picks there usually feels like they’re drawn out of a hat at random. Rising have repeated a central midfield pair in consecutive games only once since May 11th. No matter who’s chosen, the performances are rarely great, especially in terms of progressivity. Last year, Harvey went forward on 28% of his pass attempts. This year, Doratiotto, Scearce, Renzo Zambrano, and Jose Hernandez are cumulatively at 23%, and with much less spark on the dribble to boot.
You could say similar things at the center back spots, where John Stenberg, Pape Mar Boye, Alejandro Fuenmayor, Mo Traore, and Laurence Wyke are all jockeying for minutes. Often, one or more of those players is shunted over to full back as spillover. I tend to rate Wyke and Traore fairly highly, but they’ve had up-and-down years and can be exposed in those roles.
Because Phoenix swap out personnel so often, they’ve struggled to build chemistry. Practice time is limited in a travel-heavy league, and Stone’s ever-shifting team sheets didn’t give players the minutes needed to form connections. The result has been negligible off-ball movement, painstakingly slow passing, and general disarray. While the struggles are most visible in the final third, they’ve plagued Rising at every link of the offensive chain.
Squad choices matter, but so do system and shape. Rising have allowed just 1.3 xG per match, sixth-best in the league. Rocco Rios Novo has saved a total of 0.8 goals above expected (that was 2.4 before Friday night’s massacre, but I digress). Statistically speaking, this Phoenix team should be stifling. In practice, they’ve actually allowed a middling 21 goals because of an inconsistent defensive structure that’s prone to bad mistakes.
Pointing to the 5-1 rout in Memphis that ended Stone’s run feels like a cheap shot, but it was the culmination of negative trends that have hung around this team all season. Rising have mostly used a back four this year - a point of differentiation from Guerra’s back three - but have been very “Jekyll and Hyde” in their ability to execute.
As seen above in the 901 match, Phoenix was eaten alive at the full back spots and allowed far too much space between the lines. The Doratiotto-Renzo Zambrano pivot put up little resistance, wing support was a rarity, and Mo Traore was targeted at left back every time down the pitch. That’s what you see above; Memphis breaks Traore’s way, sends multiple players into his channel, and feasts when no runners are marked by Rising players.
That’s the Hyde scenario. In Jekyllian contrast, Rising did a wonderful job of denying Charleston in a similar 4-2-3-1 a week prior. Gabi Torres was an inspired presence as a defense-first left winger, and Fede Varela put in a spirited do-it-all shift from the No. 10 spot. Could you actually rely on that coherence week-to-week? No, and that’s the problem.
Offensive ineptitude, defensive inconsistency, and uncertain squad choices are what they are. You see those flaws from every team at one point or another. If anything set off the alarm bells for me, it was how disinterested Phoenix looked at their worst. I can’t speak to the state of the changing room, but Rising have seemed bored and dispassionate at times this year. Disappointments in Memphis and Las Vegas (both of which saw Phoenix tripled on xG terms) were symptoms of something more worrisome.
Going forward as the interim manager, Gomez can easily squeeze out marginal gains by adhering to a system and trusting a first-choice XI. Let this team cook, and see what’s really there. The first steps aren’t rocket science, and Phoenix is likely to regress to their xG mean regardless of the person on the sideline.
What off the controversy deriving from the decision? My good friends at PHNX Sports interviewed Bobby Dulle, Phoenix Rising’s president, about the Stone firing. His logic bears out some of my thoughts, but, in the minds of many supporters, skirts responsibility.
In Dulle’s telling, a failure to implement an evolved game model changes was key. Phoenix wanted to get more vertical, but their average passing distance is the second-lowest in the USL and has gone up by less than a yard since 2023. Phoenix wanted to get more aggressive in the press, but their G+ from attacking-half interruptions have flatlined year-over-year and rank eighth-from bottom in the USL.
Dulle’s implication that signing Doratiotto was a midfield salve or that adding the famously defense-optional (if electric) Edgardo Rito would help the transition is cover-your-ass doublespeak. This roster build raised red flags from the get-go. Still, his assertion that Rising “lacked…clear direction for the players on what to do on the field” and suffered from “energy and intensity levels that looked like they’d been dropping” absolutely rings true.
I’m sympathetic to the decision to move on, in the end. Stone wasn’t meant to be the guy in the first place; no one saw the Guerra exit coming so close to the start of the year. This is a results-based game, and the results weren’t promising enough to hand him the keys for the foreseeable future. If management knew that Stone wasn’t the guy, they might as well cut the cord quickly and find an upgrade.
The longer-term strategy for Phoenix as an organization is a fascinating question. This roster, as talented as it may be, is overly imbalanced from position to position. Individual brilliance patched over similar issues in 2023, but there are pieces worth keeping (Rios Novo, Armenakas, Doratiotto) nonetheless. The next permanent manager needs full license to rebuild around the exceptional holdovers.
I can’t make the call about the front office. Rising supporters are upset for a reason, and they know better than the idiot with a blog. When Stone was promoted, the fans trusted Bobby Dulle and Brandon McCarthy’s decision making. Given how quickly Stone was let go, that judgement has been called into question.
What comes next will be illuminating. This leadership group just won a trophy, and they’ve spearheaded nigh-unmatched success in the Valley since the rebrand. If they can identify a new manager with a real vision and fully support him, the rocky start to 2024 will be seen as a bump on the road to bigger things. If not, it could be the canary in the coal mine for top-down changes.
Riverhounds running dry
It’s been 483 minutes since Pittsburgh scored a goal. That’s enough time to watch the new season of The Bear with two hours left over1 to crave an Italian beef (or a Primanti Bros. sandwich with some fries on it for the Pittsburgh sickos). The Riverhounds have put up 1.55 xG per match, the eighth-best mark in the USL, but they aren’t scoring. What gives?
No team in the USL plays more long balls, for one thing. 16% of the passes attempted by Pittsburgh’s outfield players go long, first in the league. Those passes advance the point of attack, but they aren’t conducive to controlled offensive soccer. Pittsburgh’s long balls don’t stretch a defense over the top, either; they usually result in an aerial duel and a contested knockdown rather than a breakaway.
In the final third, the ‘Hounds are inefficient, playing the fourth-most crosses per shot attempt in the USL. In other words, Pittsburgh can get into the attacking zone but can’t work into the box once they’ve arrived. A cross-based offense is an inefficient offense, given that the best teams only complete about a quarter of their crosses. You need width to keep a defense honest, but it can’t be your first choice.
It doesn’t help that Pittsburgh’s attackers are limited on the ball. This team has good passers - Kenardo Forbes is literally the best assister in the history of the USL - but no dribblers that can bend a defense. The Riverhounds beat opponents on the dribble just 4.3 times per game. That’s dead last in the USL, and it’s almost two full standard deviations below average.
Arrhythmic progressive patterns, inefficient pass selections, and stasis on the ball: all three factors make Pittsburgh easy to defend against. A lowly 6% conversion rate is a result of an attack that generates half-chances in constricted spaces more than bona fide opportunities.
There’s still the seed of something positive here, and it starts through Robbie Mertz and Danny Griffin in the midfield. Pittsburgh prefers a 3-4-3 formation, using Mertz as a withdrawn attacker next to natural No. 9s like Edward Kizza or Kazaiah Sterling. Griffin, meanwhile, has held down the midfield pivot next to Forbes or Jackson Walti.
The Mertz deployment has fascinated me all year long. Primarily right-footed, he’s served as a narrow, true-footed right winger in contrast to his prior role as a No. 8 or No. 10 within the Bob Lilley system. The 27-year-old has done the job as required, putting in 36 cross attempts to rank third on the roster. Still, it’s his tendency to carve inside that makes him especially interesting and useful.
The play above highlights Mertz in that manner, and it ought to be a model for ongoing attacking improvement. There’s control, with passes mostly played on the ground. There’s speed and intention, with Pittsburgh breaking lines rather than patiently skirting around the edges before a wasteful long ball. Crucially, there’s motion, and plenty of it. Mertz’s run inside draws the defense tight, and both of his fellow forwards take advantage to push over the top.
There’s no goal at the end of the play, but all the ideas are there.
For my taste, the Riverhounds’ best moments come when they actually have a No. 10 linking offense down the middle. Mertz does it above, and both Mertz and Griffin occupy that vital central space in this example from Saturday’s loss in Las Vegas.
When Griffin receives, he has two options: turn ahead and try to hit either Kizza or Mushagalusa in a one-on-one, or pass sideways. Griffin is a defensive mid at heart, and you can’t fault him for dumping the ball off. Still, it’s an apt symbol of Pittsburgh’s limitations.
Even so, hope persists. When Mertz receives to Griffin’s right, he also has the ability to turn upfield and get goalside of the Las Vegas pivot.
Instead, it’s yet another sideways pass. Kudos to Langston Blackstock for being available, but when he receives, it’s game over. You’ve painted a limited dribbler into a corner, losing access to the center of the park and allowing Las Vegas to park the bus. Those crossing issues addressed above? That’s where we’re at.
Generating controlled offense down the middle must be the aim, and you ideally want Kenardo Forbes involved along the way. Forbes hasn’t picked up an assist all season, and he ranks a modest 49th in the league in chances created. Put him in Griffin’s spot in that play from the Lights game, and it could be a different story.
Bob Lilley is arguably the greatest manager in USL history, and he knows that something’s gotta give. This team has been historically unlucky by the numbers, but that shouldn’t preclude necessary changes. Lilley knows better than to abandon his system entirely, but he’d be stubborn not to evolve in some way or another.
McLaughlin in Madison
Forward Madison is the second-highest scoring team in League One, and they top the regular season table with a +12 goal differential. That’s excellent no matter how you slice it, but it’s patching over an attack that runs cold with regularity.
Across all competitions, Madison has generated less than 1.4 xG in 11 of their 14 games. The dry spell has been especially marked as of late, as in a scoreless draw against Tormenta where Matt Glaeser and co. put up just 0.22 expected goals. Still, this weekend was the start of a new offensive era, one in which Garrett McLaughlin is set to drive the Madison attack.
The new #12 got his debut in a shutout loss in Knoxville on Saturday, but we already began to see some of what he can bring going forward.
Madison have based their system out of a 3-4-3 or thereabouts all season long, and that didn’t change on paper with their new star in the XI. McLaughlin lined up on the left wing, flanking Juan Galindrez at the No. 9 spot and Cherif Dieye on the right.
In attack, however, the shape could change. Left wing back Wolfgang Prentice often became an attacker, while Ferrety Sousa stayed a shade further back in the opposite role on the right. Madison regularly adopted a possessive 4-2-4 that featured McLaughlin as a left-of-center forward with Prentice to his side.
That’s shown in the clip. Forward Madison forms up into that 4-2-4, and the former North Carolina star drops low for a touch. In the act, McLaughlin is marked by both Knoxville center mids and has to get rid of the ball quickly. Still, his motion bends the opposing formation.
Madison aren’t quite set up to take advantage of the shifting defense, but McLaughlin keeps on probing as the ball circulates. By the end of the sequence, he has become the left winger, and Prentice has made a daring burst up the middle that nearly comes off.
It’s nothing we haven’t seen from Forward Madison before, but it’s heartening to see McLaughlin integrate into those patterns so swiftly. Fluidity and ball-seeking intention defined McLaughlin’s debut, even if it was statistically quiet. The 26-year-old took just 15 touches (only one in the box), but he greased the offensive wheels without the ball in a promising manner.
Same idea in the next example, seen above. This time, Madison is transitioning into attack and sits in a truer 3-4-3. McLaughlin wants the ball down the middle, but he knows that Galindrez - a strong hold-up player at the No. 9 spot - is better positioned for a touch. As such, #12 makes a subtle run into the half space and forces a Knoxville midfielder to follow him. A passing lane opens, and Galindrez receives.
When the striker turns, central midfield John Murphy is already making a run over the top of him toward the box; it’s a strong One Knox reaction that prevents a potential chance from developing. Still, it’s all possible because McLaughlin took up an unselfish position to activate passing lanes for his Madison teammates.
What of the struggles in the final third? Madison has a loaded squad, and McLaughlin is a player with 31 goals and 10 assists over his last three League One seasons. You’d expect fireworks.
Not so. In his debut, #12 completed no passes into the box, created no chances, and attempted just one meek shot. You’re seeing that blocked header above, and it illustrates some of Madison’s troubles.
Right off the bat, McLaughlin stalks the left channel off of Galindrez’ back side, filling a far-post lane in the process. McLaughlin is dangerous as a deeper-lying linker, but he knows how to find holes closer to the net.
However, Madison’s limitations stop that from happening. Jimmie Villalobos can’t find an early crossing angle to play the forwards in, and the ensuing sequence between him, Sousa, and Dieye is belabored at best. A cross eventually comes in towards McLaughlin, but any striker would have trouble meeting it.
If you’re Forward Madison, you obviously wanted more from your star signing on his debut. Even so, there was plenty to like in the performance. Garrett McLaughlin understands how to read a game. He doesn’t need to be the first option at all times to devastate a defense. If this team catches up with League One’s better attacking sides, they’ll do so through the all-encompassing contributions McLaughlin is capable of providing.
Playoff Odds
It’s the midway point of the year, so let’s take a look at what my model has to say about the playoff races across the board. For those of you that aren’t familiar, my model grades player performance in current season, weighing that value against past outputs, aging curves, projected minutes, and other factors to come up with a comprehensive projection. Those estimates are then summed by team and curved into expected point totals.
In the Championship’s Eastern Conference, Louisville reigns supreme. Danny Cruz and co. are actually on pace for 76 points, so my numbers are slightly bearish in context. Further down, Loudoun’s recent run of form has seen them into the eight seed, with Hartford and North Carolina on the outside looking in.
In the West, everything’s coming up Memphis. My model is absolutely enamored with 901’s squad. Marlon, Bruno Lapa, Akeem Ward, and Zach Duncan all grade as top 10ish players in the league this year. Sacramento isn’t far behind, and they’ll jump when Russell Cicerone’s injury timeline becomes more apparent. On the flip side, the actual conference leaders in New Mexico fall a whopping 15.5 points below their real-life clip. Chalk it up to a squad of exciting players without a lot of precedent in prior USL seasons.
In League One, Central Valley can take solace in the fact that they’re well above 2023’s points per game pace. The bubble is supremely tight, with a mediocre Chattanooga team and an underperforming Tormenta neck and neck. It’s tight up top as well, with the big three in a virtual tie and Northern Colorado trending up.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of Sacramento’s press in a win over Hartford? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
I can’t believe the Open Cup is back so soon? We’re all Indy, New Mexico, and Sacramento fans this month. Also, watch out for some content I’m doing to help the Eleven preview their big matchup against Atlanta United.
Nicholas Murray, king that he is, tossed up a hypothetical about a USL manager taking over the US Men’s National Team. Firstly, go read the piece and vote in the poll. Second, my take: it has to be Danny Cruz. In my mind, an international coach needs to have clear tactical principles that can be integrated with a patchwork quilt of a roster. Cruz has that clarity. He’s going to hold a high back line, overload you with action in the channels, and counterpress you to death. Sergino Dest and Jedi Robinson in the Cruz system? I’m salivating. And what is Elijah Wynder if not the better version of Yunus Musah? Make it happen.
I’m aiming to do a bigger Loudoun breakdown article at some point, but boy are they fun to watch right now. There are very few midfields in the USL as skillful as theirs. Ryan Martin, keep on cookin’.
Fidel Barajas is set to join Chivas on a $4 million deal, and Charleston are laughing their way to the bank. It wasn’t a guarantee that they’d come off this successfully. The Battery sold Barajas to Real Salt Lake for about $250,000 with a 20% sell-on clause, but they passed on a $1 million offer from Chivas to do so. Barajas’ valuation skyrocketed as he succeeded in MLS, and Charleston will end up with a bit more than Chivas’ initial offer. Good call in the end, but not without risk.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Arianna Grainey
Shout out to fellow USL Show co-host Ryan Allen for the “compare a minute streak to popular media” concept.