The Back Four: Greg Hurst edition
Tactics, stats, and other developments that defined the week for New Mexico, Memphis, Northern Colorado, and Lexington
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.
Now, let’s get to it.
Hurst in first
It’s easy to look at New Mexico United, with their goal difference of zero, and assume that their place atop the West is a mirage. They’re 12th by expected goal difference across the Championship, as mid-table as can be.
At the end of the day, good teams win games, and New Mexico is winning a lot. The advanced numbers paint the picture of a team that really isn’t overperforming to an exceptional degree. They’re converting at a 14% rate, within a standard deviation of league average. Alex Tambakis (+1.42 GSAx) and Kris Shakes (+1.46) have ranked in the bottom quarter of goalies. They’ve done it all despite the losses of Kalen Ryden, Chris Wehan, and Cristian Nava.
Eric Quill’s 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1 system is defined by energetic play in the midfield and precision on the counter. There’s a lot to like across the board, but I’ve been most impressed by New Mexico’s next-man-up depth and the excellence of Greg Hurst up top. Hurst has five league goals already, is converting at a 31% rate (not too far from his career-best 24% in Omaha), and rates in the 97th percentile for xG.
Since his move to the Championship with Phoenix Rising, the Scotsman hasn’t always seemed fully confident. He’s been good, but never great to the degree we’ve seen in 2024. This year, the 27-year old has found his stride and then some.
The finishing is obvious, marked by poached goals and driven finishes from outside the box. Still, it’s Hurst’s movement and underrated ball control that have been so essential. New Mexico doesn’t spend as much time in the final third as other elite sides, but Hurst makes those visits uniformly dangerous.
Above, the striker makes a run to the left to receive in the half space. The dribble and assist thereafter are remarkable, but the fact that Hurst moved to that spot in the first place is more important. San Antonio, a team that sits in a back five, has pushed their right wing back and right-sided center back toward the wing. Hurst sneaks behind both players and forces more rotation, thereby opening up the Nanan Houssou goal.
The second play also illustrates Hurst’s impact as a mover. Dropping to the center circle for a touch, the No. 9 draws a San Antonio defender to halfway. Again, the run forces a defensive reaction. This one is vertical; the centermost member of the back three and holding mid and get mixed up. By the time Hurst bursts ahead to receive again, there’s space in behind for two New Mexico runners.
When Greg Hurst is in form, goals are a given. When he’s truly confident, he’s making an impact across all phases of the game and doing so beyond the purview of a classic striker.
New Mexico tends to be an aggressive pressing team, or at least one that maintains a high-ish line of confrontation by way of a three- or four-man midfield corps.
Hurst’s ceaseless effort helps power that system. He rates in the 52nd percentile for defensive actions amongst strikers; unlike many forwards, Hurst has just two clearances in his own box this season. His interventions have come upfield rather than on defensive set pieces.
As the tip of the pressing spear, Hurst closes down on opposing center backs and goalies in build. When he does so, he takes angles that deny return passes and funnel the ball into midfield traps. That aspect of Hurst’s game is seen above, where the No. 9 runs at an Oakland Roots player while shutting off a cutback to a central teammate.
This is what New Mexico wants. They’re keeping the ball away from their own net and dictating where the opponent is allowed to go. Forget the xG: this is well-coached and effective soccer.
A late-June stretch with consecutive games against San Antonio, Orange County, Sacramento, and LAFC in the Open Cup will determine if this team has legitimate title chops. For now, led by Greg Hurst, it’s safe to assume that New Mexico is a fun-to-watch playoff lock at a bare minimum.
Explaining 901’s momentum
Who’s got the best offense in the West? None other than Memphis 901, who are putting up 1.63 xG per game and have the most goals added from passes per American Soccer Analysis. It felt like Memphis’ results were lagging behind their process early in the season, but they’ve been flying high since Marlon moved to striker.
You’d call Stephen Glass’ shape a 4-2-3-1 on paper. That mostly holds true in possession, but it can vary thanks to Bruno Lapa’s movement in the No. 10 spot. Lapa, always good for double-digit goal contributions, has been an utter revelation in 2024. He presses up like a forward in a defensive 4-4-2, and he’s free to drop in as a third center mid or to make clever side-to-side runs in attack. Compared to other attacking midfielders this year, Lapa ranks in the:
92nd percentile for xG
89th percentile for xA
94th percentile for total passes
94th percentile for touches
The Brazilian star is dictating play, creating chances, and taking them for himself. In the process, he forces defenses to hedge up in the midfield and lose structure.
Lapa’s dynamic influence has made Marlon’s move to striker all the more lethal. Mostly used as a pace-first winger elsewhere in the USL and in his early 901 days, the 29-year-old can be a bold finisher. Given Nighte Pickering’s slow-ish start and the injury to Neco Brett, Glass wisely decided to move Marlon to the No. 9 spot to help introduce a more fluid look in the attacking line.
In the screenshot, you see that flow in action. Lapa has come low, while Marlon has shown into the hole behind him at striker. Meanwhile, Dylan Borczak at left and Luiz Fernando at right make bursts into the channel, intending to carve ahead of their No. 9. This exact formula resulted in a long ball to Luiz Fernando, a knockdown to Marlon’s feet, and an ensuing lgoal last weekend against Pittsburgh.
The unsung - and, admittedly, shakier - aspect of Memphis’ success has been the supporting role of their back line. You can quibble with the efficacy of Carson VomSteeg, Tulu, AB Cissoko, or Lucas Turci in central defense; they combine for a 57% duel win rate as a fours one, 16th in the league compared to other such units.
Turci in particular is a revelatory passer, albeit one who’s won less than half of his challenges. You accept that trade-off with Turci. Almost no other defender in the USL possesses a similar precision on their left foot.
That’s on show above, where the Brazilian1 defender blasts a lovely diagonal ball into the forward trio. Marlon puts a body on an opponent, Luiz Fernando runs behind when the ball takes a high bounce, and it’s nearly a chance.
Turci is an initiator extraordinaire, but the full backs have been even better in an attacking sense. Akeem Ward leads the team with 19 chances created from left back; Oscar Jimenez is third at a very respectable 14. Defenses are forced to narrow out against Memphis’s inverted, probing forwards, and that allows the full back duo to do damage.
Memphis is generally a patient team, one that isn’t afraid to build slowly, involve their pivot, and break an opponent down. At the same time, they’re fourth in the USL in goalkeeper long pass share and outfield long pass share; 901 knows when to go direct to tilt the pitch.
Given the somewhat uncertain central defensive situation, Memphis’ weak spot is undoubtedly in their own area. Yes, Jimenez and especially Ward are elite stoppers at full back. Yes, Tyler Deric has put up the fourth-best GSAx amongst starting goalkeepers. Even so, it takes a village for 901 to stay whole at the back.
You see that much-needed defensive rotation going right above. Pittsburgh breaks past the front line of the pressing 4-4-2, but Luiz Fernando goes full bore in recovery against the carrier. Meanwhile, Zach Duncan spots what’s coming and starts to head goalwards from his spot in the pivot.
Because the Riverhounds have two runners going against Jimenez, the support is a must. Duncan - who rates in the 97th percentile for defensive actions among center mids - is up to the challenge. He rotates into the back line to cover space, while Luiz Fernando hedges low like a proxy No. 6.
It’s a small play, but it shows what Stephen Glass wants this team to do in the case of breakdowns. The center backs ultimately don’t end up facing a ball in, and that’s the intention.
There’s another facet to cover with 901, and it’s their tendency to drop into a back three. I’ve written more than a few words arguing that a 5-2-3 is Memphis’ best shape, especially early in the season when the goals weren’t coming. This club’s post-Marlon improvement has proven me wrong, but Glass rightly continues to find value in formational flexibility.
That was the case in the win over the Riverhounds as well. Before the first half was out, 901 made a double change that took off an attacker and replaced him with a central defender. The shape was designed to retain parity in the defensive zone against moves where Pittsburgh essentially adopted a 4-2-4.
The switch worked, and it still allowed Memphis to show verve in the press. You see it above, where Duncan presses high in a Lapa-esque closing run. Meanwhile, Emerson Hyndman sits lower as a safety net in the pivot. You can’t say enough about the Duncan-Hyndman duo this year, and the situation above encapsulates their chemistry.
It’s not been a straight-line path to success for Memphis these last two seasons, but the recent upswing in form feels momentous. Glass has evolved his system in a meaningful and increasingly pragmatic manner in 2024, and it’s why 901 is sitting in the top three in the West.
Variety for Northern Colorado
I was full of praise for Northern Colorado during their five-goal outburst against Knoxville a few weeks back. The Hailstorm put up 2.1 xG on 22 shots in that win, and they got there by putting Bruno Rendon and Noah Powder on the wings, adopting a direct passing profile, and man marking in the midfield to frustrate One Knox into turnovers.
That level of offense-driven excellence typically isn’t replicable on a week-over-week basis, but the Hailstorm came out even stronger in a Jagermeister Cup draw against Charlotte on Saturday. Soccer is a funny game, so Northern Colorado only scored twice on 3.5 xG and 31 shots, but they looked utterly lethal in the process with a radically different offensive style.
This was an entirely more controlled outing: NoCo went long on 26% of their passes during the win in Tennessee and just 10% at home against the Independence. The Hailstorm held 65% of possession during Saturday’s draw. How did Eamon Zayed make it happen?
It was a 4-2-3-1 again on paper, but the alignment differed greatly. Jackson Dietrich, one of the center mids, tended to make runs toward the left sideline to receive; Patrick Langlois stayed central. The full backs also altered their alignment. Haruki Yamazaki pushed up like a winger at left back, while right back Lucky Opara tended to sit deeper on the opposite side, almost forming a 2-3-5 possessive shape as a result.
That formation asked major questions of Charlotte’s 4-4-2 in all areas. NoCo had a presence between the vertical channels in the midfield and an odd-man edge up top. In build, the shape proved especially effective at activating Langlois. He completed 49 passes in the attacking half, comfortably leading all players in the match.
The dynamic down the left side was definitional to the entire effort. Yamazaki’s positioning high on that flank challenged Charlotte, and Bruno Rendon took advantage to the tune of 10 shot attempts. Still, NoCo had a wealth of options. That variety is why they ran up one of League One’s biggest xG totals of the year.
The sequence in the clip begins with Opara looking to push up on the right. He and Langlois beat the opposing winger with a slick give-and-go move, and their rhythm is matched by smart upfield running. Ethan Hoard drops in from striker for a touch, Isidro Martinez pushes high from the No. 10 role to fill in, and it’s a clean zone entrance.
The Independence recover well from that point onward, but the play shows how the Hailstorm evolved in possession and why their attacking excellence runs deeper than the Rendon-Powder duo. Yeah, two rampant matches is a small sample size, but Zayed has a track record of building elite offenses. The Hailstorm are on the cusp of becoming a juggernaut anew in 2024.
Lexington’s offensive catharsis
I’ve been critical of Lexington’s attack for much of this season, harping on the fact that a hugely talented squad hadn’t quite lived up to their potential. Darren Powell had done well to slow down the tempo of games and keep scorelines tight, but that hadn’t produced many wins.
This Saturday’s Jagermeister Cup victory over Chattanooga, then, was a marker of progress in two key ways. The offense finally clicked to the tune of four goals and Lexington’s best xG performance since March. The improvement didn’t come at the expense of this team’s sense for clutch late-game magic, either. It was the best of both worlds.
Amidst the ups and downs, there have been consistent positives. Yannik Yankam, who didn’t feature in the lineup on Saturday, has been a good progressor. There’s a wealth of striking talent, albeit talent that has only appeared in flashes. Jorge Corrales has been an elite left back, fifth at his position with +0.13 goals added as a passer this year on top of exceptionally considerate overlapping.
Saturday was notable because it included enhanced progressivity across the entire midfield, efficient striker play, and the continued quality of Corrales all at the same time.
Underpinning the glow-up was a pressing scheme with visibly increased intensity. Lexington put in 19 defensive attempts in the attacking half in the win, 58% more than they attempted against Forward Madison in their Jaegermeister Cup debut. That’s not to say Powell completed changed his stripes; he’s a manager who fundamentally prefers a more structured, passive look.
Still, there were moments of 4-3-1-2 aggression that ably shut down the Red Wolves’ proxy back three. Chattanooga often dropped Deklan Watters low from their pivot or kept Gustavo Fernandes deeper on the right to get that third-man edge.
Above, Lexington answers in a few ways. They keep Ates Diouf high on the left wing to limit an angle into Fernandes. Alexis Cerritos pushes up from his second striker spot the moment Watters turns upfield on the ball. Throw in Cameron Lancaster looming a few steps behind as a back-presser, and the Chattanooga carrier is forced into a tight window.
The second wave of the trap kicks in from there. Jayden Onen, ostensibly the right winger, sits very low in the pocket where Watters’ pass is aimed. Meanwhile, Abel Caputo steps up from the pivot to further turn the screw and intercept. Lexington had 14 total interceptions on the day, three of which came from Caputo in somewhat similar scenarios.
The press succeeds, and it instantly launches Lexington into a possessive sequence. Onen cuts inside, Corrales runs up the left flank, and the hosts have to slink back into a lower-block look.
Lexington doesn’t challenge the net, but their combination of engaged pressure and intentional offensive movement entirely reverses momentum. Suddenly, the Kentuckians are in control and are dictating where the action will take place. Chattanooga can’t set the line of confrontation.
Sloppy defensive mistakes that kept the Red Wolves in the game aside, Lexington called the shots much more than usual. The personnel mix in the front four helped the cause.
Diouf looked as bright as he has all year on the wing, putting up four shots and three key passes because of his ability to swoop inside and do damage. Lancaster’s gravity as a No. 9 helped the cause, and he attempted eight shots of his own. Still, it was Cerritos who really made things tick.
Signed just weeks ago, Cerritos’ central movement constantly challenged the Chattanooga pivot. He totaled 45 touches and picked up a goal for his efforts, all on top of four defensive ball recoveries. Crucially, Cerritos knew when to make a run off of Lancaster’s shoulder or to slide wide to replace Diouf on the left.
That latter scenario is the story above, where Corrales hits Diouf from deep with #11 making the replacing run. The quick interplay allows Diouf to leverage his inverted position and dribble toward the interior. With #32 and the ex-Fuego man criss-crossing one another, the defense is distracted and lets Lancaster slice into the box in acres of space.
This was a game where Lexington was able to let their offensive talent shine, and they were to do so because they finally tried to control field position. Long may it continue.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for coverage of North Carolina’s lovely left wing? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Any Premier League team that travels halfway across the globe to play a friendly like three days after the season ends deserves a stern talking to.
I have no idea what to make of the Riverhounds this year. I was negative in the preseason (per usual) but quickly came around. Now, they’re being too cute tactically and don’t have the depth that was an underrated factor in the Players’ Shield run in 2023. Interesting times.
The Jagermeister Cup is generating the weirdest results, and I’m so here for it. This thing is going to expand sooner rather than later, and I’m curious to see how the format changes (are we keeping the group stage?) and how Championship clubs might strike a balance between cup and league.
I finally finished all of Twin Peaks, and it feels like the light has gone out of my life.
See you soon!
Trying to switch up the word choice and use “the Brazilian” is tricky for this Memphis team! Between Marlon, Luiz Fernando, Bruno Lapa, and Lucas Turci, it’s sorta wild how Brazilian this team’s core is.