The Back Four: Fuego and Championship favorites
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Tampa Bay, Central Valley, Sacramento, and Louisville
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.
Now, let’s get to it.
Tampa Bay’s defense
Since the start of June, the Tampa Bay Rowdies have a +10.6 xG margin, the best mark in the entire league. They’ve got 19 points in that same stretch, again the best in the USL. The Rowdies have actually underperformed their expected goal difference during the last two months - they’re incredible, but they have room to get even better.
Much of the success starts in the back line. Jordan Doherty, Freddy Kleemann, and Aaron Guillen have cemented themselves as ab elite trio in Forrest Lasso’s absence. Their quality makes Tampa Bay a title threat.
Against Charleston last weekend, Tampa Bay’s fortunes turned when they let the defensive line get aggressive. In the first half, winger Juan Torres from the Battery was allowed to drop low for touches with relatively pressure on his back. Torres could receive in pockets between the lines, turn, and go at the back three with a head of steam.
Led by Doherty and Guillen, who respectively matched up against Torres and Nick Markanich, Tampa Bay turned the tide in the second half. You see an example above.
The passage above takes place in a low-block situation, but it’s emblematic of the dynamic. Guillen rides Markanich and doesn’t necessarily care about staying level with his linemates. He continues to do so until defensive midfielder Lewis Hilton steps over in support. When Markanich bursts behind thereafter, Guillen picks him up anew, and it all ends in a Charleston turnover.
This wasn’t Tampa Bay’s most aggressive game on paper; Doherty and Guillen combined for one single interception. Even so, the ability for those two to track runners defined the second half, and it wouldn’t have been possible without Kleemann’s surety in the center.
Whereas Guillen and Doherty have been Rowdies regulars for five years or so (Irish return notwithstanding in Doherty’s case), Kleemann only joined the mix in 2023. By that point, he was fresh off two injury-riddled seasons on loan with Birmingham. Kleemann made 24 starts last year in his Tampa Bay debut, but he still entered this season as a backup.
Called upon after Lasso’s injury, the 6’4” Kleemann has been terrific. You see his defensive actions and ball recoveries from the Charleston game mapped above, representing a breathtaking volume of successful interventions. That’s par for the course in 2024. Kleemann ranks in the 99th percentile for aerial wins per 90 minutes, and his tackle win rate grades out in the 84th percentile. The defender is physical and technical in equal measure.
Because of Kleemann’s reliability, Doherty and Guillen can rove on both sides of the ball. We saw the defensive impact: Doherty’s ability to track a runner a la Torres upfield is an obvious knock-on effect. In possession, the consequences can be farther reaching still.
Among all central defenders, Guillen and Doherty respectively rank in the 73rd and 72nd percentiles for passes per game - and that’s in a team with a direct style that ranks 18th in the USL in overall pass completions.
Judging by the team-level numbers alone, Tampa Bay looks like a team that lumps it long and only engages their forwards. In actuality, they buck that trend. The Rowdies aren’t afraid of defending in block, but they let Guillen and Doherty advance to pin opponents at the halfway line and recycle the ball when it’s at Tampa Bay’s feet.
Doherty is the cleverest of Tampa Bay’s defenders when it comes to slaloming runs and incisive distribution. You see him carry possession all the way into the box above, indicative of a match where Doherty and co. dominated an Indy team that plays like the Rowdies. It was a battle of marauding center backs, and Tampa Bay came out the definite winner.
Tampa Bay is often boiled down to “the team with Cal Jennings and Manuel Arteaga” in the discourse, but that fundamentally misunderstands their system. Yes, Jennings’ something-out-of-nothing excellence is vital, but the Rowdies’ system couldn’t function without Jordan Doherty, Freddy Kleemann, and Aaron Guillen holding down the back line.
Central Valley…good, actually?
I’ve been mean to the Central Valley Fuego this season, and it’s mostly been justified. Fuego is last in the League One table and isn’t even averaging a point per game. They won a single match in their six-game Jagermeister Cup campaign before crashing out in the group stage. If you’re a standings watcher, Central Valley seems like an also-ran.
Fresh off a comeback win against Tormenta this weekend, it’s time to take note of Jermaine Jones’ ragtag squad. Yes, they’re seven points off the playoff line, but they’ve got games in hand on much of League One and are genuinely finding form. They’ve lost just once in their last six games in all competitions for a reason.
Since June began, Central Valley has put up defensive xG numbers (1.6 against per 90) well above league average - that’s because Chattanooga is a war crime and is ruining the average, but I digress. Meanwhile, Fuego’s offense (1.3 xG per 90 has lagged, but it’s within shouting distance of other bubble clubs. In sum, this isn’t the profile of a disastrous team. Fuego is competitive, if not great.
Settling into a 3-5-2, one fueled by a number of in-season signings, has been transformational for Central Valley. Consider the personnel, and you’ll come away impressed at the clever scouting that’s brought Fuego up to standard:
Dembor Benson, a forward that beat Fuego in the Open Cup with El Farolito.
Javier Mariona, a wide player formerly with Project 51O in Oakland.
Atcha Issa Yaya, a center back with experience in the New York Red Bulls academy.
Those three have added quality at every level for Fuego and allowed Jones to integrate an honest-to-God style. This is a direct team; their average pass has traveled a league-high 9.2 yards forward since the start of June. Carlos Avilez’s average pass from goal has traveled a whopping 41 yards during that same stretch, another league high.
At the same time, that verticality has often been supported by aggressive pressure and a high back line. Yaya - the anchor of the setup - is in the top quarter of League One defenders for tackles, interceptions, duel wins, and aerial wins in that same stretch. He’s quietly been one of the signings of the season.
Benson and Shavon John-Brown tend to pair up top, marrying a sizable hold-up player and a speedier rover. You see them in the press in the clip, cutting off the goalkeeper and nearest center back for Spokane. The former El Farolito man has won more than seven aerial duels per game and knows how to throw his body around; John-Brown leads all League One attackers in final third takeaways.
On the weak side, they’re joined by a roving Raul Mendiola out of the midfield. Mendiola has been a spot starter, part of a platoon of options in the midfield. Chris Heckenberg and Jose Carrera-Garcia are essentially guaranteed to be in the team, but Jones can call upon Mendiola for creative sizzle, Alfredo Midence for late-arriving movement, or Mouhamed Dabo for defensive steel to round out the trio.
In action, the high press forces the Velocity to play a long ball that’s aggressively pursued at the halfway line. Though Yaya is touched around, he recovers splendidly to stop Spokane from getting a look.
This play features the good and the bad in equal measure. The aggression is clear, and the back line does enough to stop a chance from developing. At the same time, there’s a sense of recklessness and disorder. We’ve often seen the back three fail to communicate, and that’s especially true in transition. Though Fuego beat Tormenta on Saturday night, their concession just before halftime was a perfect example of a defensive line failing to stay level and thereby ceding a look at net.
Staying shapely in the midfield and collecting loose balls is key to the Fuego system, assuming that the back line can win a header rather than concede a break. That made the sale of Robert Coronado to the El Paso Locomotive earlier this month all the more fascinating.
Per American Soccer Analysis, Coronado is responsible for 4.04 points added for Fuego in all competitions - a top-five mark in the third division. That’s more than a quarter of every point Central Valley has earned in 2024. Mostly used as a high No. 8 or No. 10, however, Coronado barely made more than three recoveries per match. I think he can be a ball winner, but Jones didn’t see him that way, and El Paso made it profitable to move on.
How to replace Coronado? Lean into the excellence of Chris Heckenberg, for one. In the last five games, the midfielder has 30 ball recoveries and further 16 duel wins on a 55% success rate. Above, you see him at the tip of a pentagonal midfield, shadowing opposing Madison’s deepest midfielder. Heckenberg sits in, Mariona steps up on the right to mark another player, and it encourages a wasteful long ball.
Heckenberg’s impact goes beyond defensive positioning. He claims a second ball very high upfield in the second clip, turning a long ball into useful possession in the final third. Often asked to stay low like a No. 6 in South Georgia, Heckenberg is thriving in a freer deployment out in California.
Heckenberg’s recovery in that second clip comes off an incomplete long ball toward Mariona on the right. Still only 19 years old, Mariona has consistently stretched the sideline at wing back during his run with Central Valley. The youngster is totaling 2.8 shot attempts and chance creations per 90 minutes. On Saturday, he scored against Tormenta and drew the foul that set up Yaya’s game-tying set piece goal.
You see Mariona take up a high left wing position in the example above. This is evidence of Jones’ experimentation, and it comes about 20 seconds before Fuego score their winning goal. The shape is the same as always, but the deployments are unique: Omar Lemus is playing center back, Mariona has swapped sides, and John-Brown is ostensibly a wing back.
The rub? John-Brown (19th in the league in expected goals and assists this year) has advanced so far ahead that he literally isn’t even on screen. That’s the beauty of this Fuego team when they’re cooking. Wide threats open space for central creators like Jose Carrera-Garcia, who you see deep in the midfield here, just before he hits a switch towards John-Brown.
Having the ability to move a threat like John-Brown to the flank and double down on that dynamic late in matches is a luxury. Indeed, between him and Benson, there’s variety for Fuego, and it’s supported by Carrera-Garcia and Alfredo Midence - both top-20 creators since the start of June.
Is it perfect right now? Of course not. Is Central Valley especially consistent? Not really. Even so, Fuego are exciting and intriguing for the first time in years, and that’s a big step for Jermaine Jones in his debut season on the sideline.
Cristian Parano and Sacramento’s refresh
I was lucky enough to see the Sacramento Republic in action two weeks ago in Oakland, and they put on a show. High pressure and slick interchange allowed the Republic to dominate the attacking half in every phase. The Roots mounted a second-half comeback, but it was a rout from the opening whistle.
The usage of Cristian Parano stood out. He was excellent and confident as an individual, but the way in which he linked with teammates, underpinned a new team pressing look, and led the Republic was more crucial still.
Parano has been with the Republic for about a year now, and he’s finally finding consistency. A former USL Young Player of the Year, the 24-year-old has arrived in the sense that he’s dominating play week in and week out. Dominance doesn’t mean that Parano needs to be the first name on the scoresheet: Kieran Philips and Jack Gurr are both top-25 expected contributors in the last two months because their Argentine teammate is tormenting defenses and opening space.
You can’t separate the offensive impact from Parano’s defensive deployment. Parano is sitting next to Philips as a striker while his team is without possession, allowing Sacramento to adopt a 3-1-4-2 formation.
As seen in the heatmap from Saturday’s win, the shape has proven exceptionally good at denying opponents access to the box and cordoning them to less impactful areas. Detroit’s touches were concentrated in two areas: the space wide of Parano and Philips, and the gap between the wing backs and center backs. That’s by design: the first area is harmless, and the second isn’t especially near to the final third.
You see the Republic in the 3-1-4-2 above. Parano is front and center, ready to pounce on the nearest of Oakland’s two central defenders. In the example, the front line is supported by a midfield foursome. Take note the presence of Nick Ross, the center-left player, in particular.
Force a turnover out of that pressing shape, and you’ve instantly got two forwards in advanced positions. Sacramento’s innovation has been to push Ross up alongside them as a narrow sort of left winger. The Republic adopt a 3-4-3 in attack, pushing their versatile Scottish mid up into dangerous positions.
You see the wing-to-wing equity represented in the collective heatmaps of Ross and Parano from Saturday’s win. The pair combined for 118 touches, two chances created, and four shot attempts. Their best moment came a week prior in a move that started with a Gurr takeaway, leveraged Parano’s vision in the final third, and ended with Ross tearing across the box to seal the victory over Oakland.
That’s a platonic Sacramento move. You start with aggressive pressure from a wing back, flow into the final third, and benefit from lovely movement. It’s hard-nosed and high-skill in equal measure, and Parano is at the center of it all.
With Russell Cicerone healthy and already scoring, it’ll be fascinating to see how Sacramento adjusts. Sitting Ross seems like the natural move, but he’s been unbelievable. At the same time, moving Ross deep and displacing either Luis Felipe or Justin Portillo is a difficult call to make. Getting a player like Cicerone back in the fold is a great problem to have, but it’ll force fascinating tactical changes in the weeks ahead.
Louisville and the art of roster building
It’s easy to praise Louisville City on the pitch. Danny Cruz has established a clear style, and it’s cemented his club’s status as the premier competitive unit in the USL.
LouCity’s longstanding success - see nine straight conference final appearances and a +0.65 xG margin per game since 2017 - owes plenty to strong rosters, but it also arises from the club’s operational culture. The construction of Lynn Family Stadium and investment into league-best training facilities are differentiators. Level-headed, “build from within” coaching changes matter as well. The less-discussed factor is the way Louisville manages their squad in a wholly unique way compared to their USL competition.
Compare the current crop of clubs,1 and it’s obvious that Louisville strikes a unique balance between continuity and youth. When they find core pieces, they treat those players with respect and reward them with multi-year deals. When those core pieces reach a terminal point in their career, they’re allowed to leave with grace. There isn’t drama.
At the same time, those exits are counterbalanced by the introduction of young players with potential. We’ve seen those pieces come to Louisville from two main sources: other USL clubs and an increasingly fruitful academy setup. Few competitors can boast of similar success in both areas.
By weighted average age (i.e., balancing player ages against their minutes played), LouCity is the fourth-youngest team in the division this season. The players who anchor that youth come from multiple sources and evidence the progressivity of the squad-building philosophy. Consider:
21-year-old Elijah Wynder (from the academy)
21-year-old Carlos Moguel (from the academy)
22-year-old Ray Serrano (signed from Tacoma)
22-year-old Damian Las (on loan from Austin)
23-year- old Taylor Davila (signed from RGV)
23-year-old Jansen Wilson (a rookie out of college)
24-year-old Wilson Harris (signed from SKC)
You’ve got homegrown players, local college alums with USL upside, and a spate of up-and-comers plucked from elsewhere in the league. Louisville is extremely good about identifying talent. Their reputation and resources allow them to go out, get it, and keep on developing it.
More than 60% of the Louisville players with actual game time this season are signed to multi-year deals. Only North Carolina FC exceeds that mark; their team mostly seems to be on 1+1 option deals. While many clubs don’t publish contract term information, it’s safe to assume that the average is somewhere around 25%. The gap is clear between that mark and LouCity’s.
Those multi-year deals can lead to uniquely long careers for Louisville’s most consistent contributors. Niall McCabe (10 years), Brian Ownby (8), and Sean Totsch (8) are three of the five longest-tenured players at a single club in the USL. Birmingham’s core of players with five or six seasons under their belt - players who have been there since the expansion year - is the only thing comparable to the LouCity experience.
The signs point to this trend continuing in Louisville. Totsch and Amadou Dia just re-upped for the foreseeable future. 25-year-old Aiden McFadden, who started the season on loan, was acquired on a permanent multi-season deal this month. LouCity is a well-oiled machine, and they manage the cogs like nobody else. As the USL grows, their management style should be a model for the rest of the league.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of Louisville’s lethal attack in action? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
I’ve added attendance and transfer trackers native to this site! Scroll to the top of the page, and you can find it all.
Nicholas Murray’s Young Player Spotlight piece is always worth a peek, and this week’s edition - marked by Shawn Smart, Nate Worth, and others doing damage - is necessary reading.
Go check out my fellow USL Show co-host Ryan Allen’s Substack page. He’s putting out a weekly betting preview of the Championship and League One, complete with the “compare a streak to movie runtimes” amazingness that you know and love.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Central Valley Fuego
For reference, here’s the full table for the Championship: