The Back Four: Detroit on the slide?
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, and Central Valley
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.
Now, let’s get to it. Note that this one is too long for the email format, so click the prompt at the bottom for Jake LaCava takes and whatnot.
Detroit’s defense
During their first two USL seasons under Trevor James, Detroit City prided themselves on an elite defense. Le Rouge allowed 0.88 xG per game in 2022, the fourth-best number in the league. That mark rose to 1.15 last season but still ranked amongst the Championship’s elite.
Detroit played twice last week, conceding eight total goals. Across 2024, this team is allowing 1.36 xG per game, which represents a paradigm shift relative to seasons past. What’s going wrong?
James’ teams usually employed a five-man defensive line that crowded their own box, especially in 2022. Even when he experimented with a back four later on, James employed a double pivot in the midfield, giving himself two defensive midfielders that could shield the back line.
Under Danny Dichio, that hasn’t necessarily been true. Outside of a few Open Cup games in a back five, Dichio has preferred a 4-1-4-1 with three central midfields, only one of which would qualify as a deep-lying No. 6. Typically, Laye Diop and James Murphy have split that role while Maxi Rodriguez sat higher up the pitch.
Louisville City exposed the problem with that shape in their five-goal outburst last Wednesday. Soon after, Orange County took advantage of transitional sloppiness to nab three more goals; their success came in part because of a too-light Detroit press.
That’s been a commonality across 2024. The 4-1-4-1 usually pushes high against restarts, using the (1) striker and the ball-side (2) No. 8 and (3) winger to spring traps. Those scenarios haven’t been constant. Often, the aim has been to maintain shape and simply force a bad pass rather than to overextend in the press.
The numbers bear out those trends. Detroit allows the sixth-most passes per defensive action.1 They also rely on interventions from their central defenders to put out fires once the press is beaten. Le Rouge’s center backs put in the eighth-most tackles and interceptions as a unit, but they’re the highest-ranked team that has exclusively used a back four in USL play.
Before we dig into the tape, there’s an elephant in the room that needs to be addressed: Nate Steinwascher has regressed statistically. In 2022, he saved 0.19 goals per game above expected. That number was still an elite 0.13 in 2023. This year, Steinwascher has allowed 0.10 goals per game more than you’d expect.
If you’re giving me one goalkeeper to win a game, Steinwascher is still my guy, but it’s been a cold start to the year. That matters.
That Detroit is giving up a lot of easy looks isn’t helping Steinwascher’s cause, and that comes down to structural faults. You see a few on display from the LouCity loss above.
Start with the press. Detroit decides to sit in at the halfway line and hold that 4-1-4-1 shape in the example. Their midfield has three layers: Ryan Williams is the deep No. 6, Laye Diop plays high on the left, and Murphy is in-between on the right.
None of the three pressure the ball, allowing Louisville to work around the edge until a window arises. Because of the staggered midfield, Williams is isolated against both of the opposing wingers, who have come narrow to create a central two-on-one. Outnumbered, Williams overcommits and can’t help but allow a break.
It’s the same story in the second example. Louisville can pick out a pass, Williams has too much ground to cover, and there’s easy entry into zone 14. Detroit simply isn’t set up to protect that area in front of their back line.
Weak pressure up top also invites longer passes that directly stress the back four. Indeed, that’s how Orange County first got on the board this weekend, as shown above. There’s no pressure on the ball, the hosts go long, and neither Stephen Carroll nor Devon Amoo-Mensah are there to make a stop.
The Orange County game feels worse when you consider it from the host’s perspective. As Nicholas Murray pointed out in his essential recap of the weekend, “in three consecutive games [Orange County] had been held below 10 shots overall and had only nine efforts on target. Both of those ratios improved notably on Saturday night against Detroit City FC as the hosts took 15 shots and put seven on target.”
You don’t want to be the team that cures bad offenses, and Detroit’s there right now.
Functionally, the core of the defensive group is the same as in the halcyon days. Carroll, Amoo-Mensah, Michael Bryant, Brett Levis, and winger-full back combo Rhys Williams were all back. Matt Lewis’ retirement shortly before opening day was a big loss, but Detroit seemed to have enough depth to patch over that exit.
Still, the back line has been more mistake-prone and less consistent in 2024. Carroll in particular is down from the 94th percentile for defensive actions to the 50th. Amoo-Mensah still ranks in the 70th percentile for defensive actions, but his efficiency has dropped back down to earth.
The deployment of the full backs hasn’t helped the cause. New signings Matt Sheldon and Alex Villanueva have solid enough numbers, but their attention is split because of their attacking burden. Detroit’s wingers are expected to accommodate aggressive overlapping, and that means the full backs are responsible for covering humongous ground in recovery.
Systematic changes in the midfield, a minimally influential press, and good-old-fashioned underperformance all have contributed to Detroit’s defensive slide. Even so, there’s a lot to like and a lot to recommend this team for improvement.
Amoo-Mensah is the kind of player you build a team around, and Steinwascher is bound to get better. Even with the concerns, Le Rouge still sit solidly in the Eastern playoff field. A lot of this is correctable, and Danny Dichio isn’t a manager who sits idly by while things sputter. An offensively dry Rhode Island team is up next, and it’ll be a match where you expect Le Rouge to put up or shut up.
Charlotte’s improving attack
I’m routinely very mean to the Charlotte Independence, who are clinging to sixth place in the league and sit third in their Jagermeister Cup group with only four goals scored in three games. Austin Pack has been this team’s most important player across 2024,2 while the offense has lagged behind the excellence of their goalkeeper. Recently, though, there’ve been promising for the Independence in possession.
Though Charlotte only generated 0.64 xG against Northern Colorado two weeks back, they began to establish important patterns that are starting to pay off. This weekend against Tormenta, the Independence generated 1.51 xG, one of their three best offensive games of 2024.
Midfield manipulation and aggressive use of the full backs has been key. Against the Hailstorm, those patterns arose because of flexibility on the right side of the pivot in particular.
The heat maps make it clear that, within Charlotte’s preferred 4-4-2 shape, Noah Pilato regularly received the ball both wider and further upfield than Bachir Ndiaye. Pilato still tracked back into a double pivot defensively, but his touches were more offensively diverse.
What was the calculus? In build, Pilato usually moved toward the right sideline, providing an easy passing outlet for Hugh Roberts in central defense. By pushing a midfielder into that right half space, Charlotte filled the role usually taken by their right back, Clay Dimick. Lessened of responsibility as an initiator, Dimick was then able to push up on the overlap.
You see such a scenario crudely mapped here. Pilato sits near the right sideline, having just hit a ball over the top. Ahead of him, winger Joel Johnson also stretches wide. The mid-level run from Johnson is important: paired with Dimick’s overlap, it pins the opposing left back in a two-on-one with attackers at multiple heights.
Charlotte leverages that numerical edge in the example. The Northern Colorado man steps higher to Johnson, so Dimick can receive on the end of the long ball.
Given that the Independence only got seven shots in that match, it still wasn’t a breeze to get chances. The final ball lacked, and the Hailstorm dominated possession. Even so, groundwork was laid. When Charlotte did get into attack, Pilato would step up, Gabriel Obertan would drop in from striker, and you’d almost get a dual No. 10 shape. On the left, the Independence were less likely to engage in complicated interchange, but they continued to give Anthony Sorensen and Luis Alvarez valuable reps in tandem.
Though Charlotte lost on penalties this Saturday, their attacking improvement continued unabated. They went long just 11.9% of the time against South Georgia as compared to a rate in excess of 20% a week prior. The xG speaks for itself. Notably, the uber-reliable Omar Ciss entered the starting XI in place of Pilato.
Ciss is a nailed-on starter in this team, but he cuts a different profile than Pilato. The latter is more of a No. 8/No. 10 hybrid in his best deployment; Ciss is a box-to-box player, one who put up an 89th percentile forward pass share in 2023 and has contributed to five goals in each of the last two season.
Ciss is reliable, but he can pull off the same style of right-sideline initiation. You see it above. Ciss gets a touch out wide, and he’s willing to dribble forward to unsettle the Tormenta shape. He hits Johnson with a short pass, but he continues that run to keep asking questions. Meanwhile, Johnson can turn into space and hit Dimick over the top.
This is a very smooth offensive sequence. Dimick is supported by a smart attacking run from Tresor Mbuyu on the left wing and striker Juan Obregon down the middle. Though an eventual cross is deflected out, it’s a very connected sequence from front to back.
There are still questions to answer for the Independence, especially when it comes to their lineup. Miguel Ibarra and Alvarez need minutes. Someone besides Obregon needs to emerge as a scorer. Still, even with the outstanding concerns, Charlotte is finally getting there with the ball.
Nicolas Cardona!
With a goal difference of -14 and an average expected goal difference of -1.4 per match, Miami FC is comfortably the worst team in the USL by the numbers. Despite that, they’ve still won two games - more than Rhode Island! - and have enjoyed the third-best luck in the Championship in terms of xG overperformance.
I’m not going to argue that Miami is good, but I’d die on the hill that they’ve got players worth watching. Allen Gavilanes stole the headlines early on with a number of fantastic goals on the break. Gabriel Cabral has shown lovely flashes in the central midfield. Alejandro Mitrano, who was Las Vegas’ best center back last season, is making it back-to-back years of very good play within a very bad team.
Amidst it all, former Chattanooga Red Wolves standout Nicolas Cardona is having a statistically great season.
Cardona is my player value model’s favorite type of guy: a defender on a dysfunctional team that puts in a boatload of defensive actions.3 This was actually the Puerto Rican international’s prerogative during his last season in League One as well: Cardona rated in the 95th percentile for defensive actions in a team that led the league in goals allowed.
That said, there’s more to Cardona’s game than just stat padding. The right-sided defender is doing important things to underpin Antonio Nocerino’s system.
When Nocerino’s team is operating as intended, they rely on an aggressive defensive line and controlled build-out from the back. The rookie manager started the year using a 4-4-2, and while that shape hasn’t been a constant amidst Miami’s struggles, it’s the shape that best supports Nocerino’s principles.
Above, you see Cardona (labeled with his shirt number) operating amidst that context in a reprised 4-4-2. It’s the aggression that stands out.
Opposing North Carolina breaks the midfield line, forcing defensive midfielder Samuel Biek to rotate into the back four in coverage. If you’re North Carolina, this is easy money: Miami will scramble to their left side to recover, so you can cut back to the right and completely catch them out.
That’s where Cardona comes in. #4 steps up to the central North Carolina man and denies unperturbed reception on the edge of the box. Because of Cardona’s step, the ball has to move toward the sideline, where a feckless cross ensues.
This is Miami in a nutshell. The defensive structure is highly suspect, but heady individual moments defensive positioning from the Cardona and Biek types can keep the team afloat. Miami would go on to lose this game 4-0 for obvious reasons, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have a few admirable moments mixed in.
This past weekend, Miami reverted into a back five. Formational inconsistency has been a calling card more than any legitimate tactical tenet. Within the back five, Cardona has mostly played as the right-sided center back, though there’ve been occasional minutes as a wing back.
Against LouCity in what ended up being a very tight game, Cardona was in central defense, with Mujeeb Murana making his debut at the wing back spot. The twosome combined for seven cross attempts; Cardona led the team in chances created.
You get a sense of their dynamic above. Murana would maintain width and stretch the defense to the sideline. In support, a center mid or forward would move into the channel. Cardona then became the crucial third man in a passing triangle. Against Louisville, the defense tended to focus on the higher two players, thereby giving #4 ample space to show off his long-range crossing.
Ultimately, I’m not here to tell you Miami is any good. They’re going to finish last in the East, and they’ll probably finish with the least points in the Championship pending an FC Tulsa implosion. Still, this team is far from a disaster. 2024 was always going to be a rebuilding year, one in which Nocerino found his managerial footing and hopefully identified building blocks for the future. Nicolas Cardona has the clear potential to be that level of player.
Faltering Fuego
Death, taxes, and Central Valley being last in League One. The Jermaine Jones era isn’t off to a pristine start, and a lot of that ineptitude comes down to an inability to maximize a talented midfield. Fuego are underperforming their expected pass completions by about nine link-ups per game, and that’s in spite of a style that isn’t especially long (see an average of 7.2 yards per completion) or direct.
What gives? A lot of the problem has come down to shape and positioning, and it’s hamstringing this side.
The average Fuego midfielder (Chris Heckenberg, Robert Coronado, Jose Carrera-Garcia, Mouhamed Dabo, etc.) gets the third-most touches per match in League One. However, Fuego’s centermen are performing below expectations when it comes to progressivity.
Yes, the central midfielders are getting touches, but they aren’t getting them in positions where they can do damage. This team is too slow on the ball, too timid in their movement, and too easy to defend against.
Take the play in the 2-0 loss to One Knox from two weeks back. Central Valley builds out with control from the back, utilizing a very flat back four in what’s essentially a 4-1-2-3 formation. The three center mids stay relatively orderly in the middle as their team holds the ball just below halfway.
However, there’s a catch. If you’re the defense facing down Fuego in this situation, you know a few things:
Fuego’s outfield players play the second-lowest share of long passes in the league. They don’t want to chip over you.
The full backs are super deep and relatively close to the center backs. If one of them gets the ball, it’s easy to rotate over to deny them in coverage.
Those central defenders can’t hurt you with the ball on the ground. Issa Yaya is in the 24th percentile for touches and the 52nd for progressivity. His partner isn’t all that much more dangerous; inhis best passing seasons, Deshawon Nembhard has been little better than average.
All of those factors inform the defensive look. Knoxville has five midfielders, one of whom is just off screen, and they’re able to stay compact to limit any touches in the middle of the park. Why close hard to the feckless defenders when you can deny that dangerous midfield trio?
Predictability and stasis are the death knell for any attack, and they’ve plagued Fuego in spades.
Sensing that things were stale, Jones broke out a 5-3-2 against Omaha last Wednesday. The shape change had merits: Central Valley could spread their back line wider and find outside-in angles to hit pieces like Raul Mendiola in advantageous positions. In theory, hose wider center backs could also push upfield on the dribble and force rotations.
It didn’t play out that way in practice. Fuego mustered just 0.47 xG, completed a measly 176 passes, and hoofed it long more than 26% of the time. You hoped that the elevated No. 8s in the shape could help contest those longer passes, but that didn’t bear out in practice.
You get a sense of the rickety offensive performance above. The sequence starts by bypassing the deeper lines entirely in hopes of catching the press out. Shavon-John Brown - this team’s best player in 2024 - receives and smartly cuts inside, but he’s immediately dispossessed. Heckenberg gloms onto the loose ball nicely, and his progressive pass between the lines is even better from there, but Central Valley have all the control and intention of a caroming mine cart in an adventure movie.
I like to end these blurbs positively for the most part, but I don’t really see how things are going to get better. There isn’t enough gravity at striker nor technique at the back to challenge defenses, and Jones isn’t bringing revolutionary tactics to the table. Central Valley has enough talent in the midfield to surprise opponents on occasion, but they feel like an incomplete squad in too many important ways.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for a breakdown of El Paso under Wilmer Cabrera? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
I absolutely torched the Substack email size limit this week. Oops.
The Jake LaCava transfer is throwing me. Charleston already had a thin attacking corps, and that’s doubly true now. On one hand, I get it. No one saw Juan David Torres coming, and he’s suddenly become undroppable on the left. That made it really hard for LaCava to get minutes. Still, the Battery just signed LaCava on a multi-year deal this winter. The offer must’ve been a sweet one…
…even though I don’t love the San Antonio fit in a vacuum. LaCava is a grinder that gives you real effort on the wing, and that fits Alen Marcina’s culture. Still, using a player that had 12 goals in 2022 as a wing back would be a complete waste. Still, is there room up top? San Antonio team has six other forwards already, and LaCava is best used in a wider role anyway. If this turns into a 4-2-3-1 with a Haakenson-Hernandez-LaCava line, then cool! Otherwise, it’s a head-scratcher in the immediate term, even though I adore this move from a long-term roster building view.
Deep down the rabbit hole of Burt Lancaster movies as of late. This tends to be my thing, having previously binged a ton of Shirley MacLaine and Keanu Reeves in long spells. If you haven’t seen Local Hero, go find it.
See you soon!
Note that I’m self-calculating a proxy version of that stat. Wyscout and/or Opta, give me free access please.
Remember when Pep Guardiola called Tottenham “Harry Kane team” that one time? Same energy.
Prior examples include Morten Bjorshol from Las Vegas and Mo Traore, also from Las Vegas. We forget how shitty the Lights have been.
Supposedly there is a Fuego striker waiting on a visa. Can’t come fast enough given the issues up front.