The Back Four: bubble check-ins
The Back Four: bubble check-ins
A look at Phoenix, Hartford, Loudoun, and Tulsa's playoff hopes
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
Quick programming note: expect a Super League piece next weekend. The two-game slate wasn’t beefy enough to warrant a full power ranking, but I’ll be back on the grid soon enough.
Now, let’s get to it.
Margarithaville
Phoenix is officially in the catbird seat in the playoff race, having lost just one of their last six games. Rising is up to seventh place with a four-point lead on their nearest chaser and a game in hand. It increasingly seems that this club is a lock and everyone else is fighting for the table scraps of the eighth seed.
The improvement didn’t start immediately after Danny Stone was let go. Recently, though, Diego Gomez has done a hugely admirable job of settling on a system - something Stone struggled to do - and integrating new signings like to get the job done. Only Tampa Bay has a greater xG margin during the last month.
Gomez settled on a 4-1-4-1 defensive shape shortly into his tenure, but the alignment shifts depending on the phase of play. When Rising recover possession, they push left back Emil Cuello up like a central midfielder, turning the formation into a diamond-like 3-4-3 or even a 3-1-5-1. Cuello, a No. 10 by trade, has flourished in that role, and he’s set up for success with complementary pieces like Jearl Margaritha.
Margaritha is a Curaçao international, and the vast majority of his club experience has come in the Eerste Divisie, the second tier of Dutch soccer. The 24-year-old didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but the extent to which he’s excelled in the USL since signing in mid-August has been a surprise. Entering the weekend, Margaritha was tied for third in the league with 2.6 successful take-ons per match.
Rising simply haven’t had a player with the ability to beat opponents one-on-one and get to the endline. Margaritha possesses it in spades. For much of 2024, Phoenix struggled to score against compact defenses that didn’t need to account for a true wide threat. Now, Phoenix can stretch you out, and it’s forced opponents to concede space all over the field.
Ironically, Margaritha went oh-for-one on dribbles in a 4-0 win against San Antonio, but that didn’t diminish his impact. He still created two chances and attempted three crosses while playing as a right winger. The change from left to right was seemingly motivated by two things: a desire to use Margaritha’s speed in the press against San Antonio’s Mitchell Taintor, and a trust in Cuello’s combination play with Darek Formella on the left as a way to unlock the guests. You can’t argue with the results.
You see Margaritha’s talents above. His two-footed threat in the final third stands out. Not only does #71 possess the pace and skill to beat opponents, but he’s adept as a left-footed crosser, right-footed shooter, or vice versa. That flexibility made the winger’s deployment against San Antonio an easier call to make; Gomez wasn’t sacrificing Margaritha’s talents.
It’s not been an easy year in Phoenix, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. My playoff model gives Rising an 80% shot of making the playoffs, and that feels low given the state of the Western bubble. Rising has been underrated as a defensive juggernaut throughout all of 2024, but their ability to put in complete performances is making them a possible dark horse come November.
How real is Hartford?
If you took a peek at the table at the end of July, two short months ago, you’d have seen Hartford Athletic in 11th place. At the time, Brendan Burke’s club was nine points out of a playoff spot, four points back of 10th, and felt like a guaranteed afterthought in the East.
Since then, Hartford has found their stride. They’ve lost one single match, and two unexpected stars - Mamadou Dieng and Renan Ribeiro - have fueled their rise into the thick of the postseason hunt. Now in the middle of a seven-game unbeaten run, Hartford is one of the stories of the season.
Since mid-August, the onset of that streak, Hartford has the seventh-best expected goal difference in the USL. They’ve earned the second-most points, behind only New Mexico United. Hartford has put up nearly 13 xG and allowed just three actual goals; both numbers are top-three marks. Burke has this team playing like a genuinely contender, not just a doomed also-ran.
The system hasn’t changed all that much even as Hartford has improved. This club still runs a 4-2-3-1, still relies on their wingers to spearhead the attack, and hasn’t really altered their passing profile. What has changed is the cohesion of their midfield and the rise of Mamadou Dieng.
Dieng was signed out of Senegal as a 19-year-old this winter, and he didn’t figure to be a massive part of the squad. Romario Williams entered the season as Hartford’s top No. 9, and players like Kyle Edwards or a converted Michee Ngalina tended to back him up in times of need.
When Williams went cold and was dealt to Indy, Dieng had an opportunity and took it by the scruff of the neck. The forward has proven to be strong in the air and incredibly crafty in the box. Dieng brings a probing movement to the Hartford attack, and the way he draws attention from opposing back lines buys space for his teammates.
Behind Dieng, a midfield built around Beverly Makangila has crystalized. Makangila played under Burke in Colorado Springs and is one of just four senior players from 2023 to remain on the Hartford roster. I’ve slept on Makangila in the past to be frank, questioning what exactly he adds in the midfield. These last few weeks of premier holding midfield play - he went 30-for-31 on passes and made three recoveries against Oakland - have shown exactly why the 24-year-old is important.
Dieng buys space. Makangila sets a baseline. Between them, veterans like Danny Barrera, Marlon Hairston, and Thomas Vancaeyezeele have finally been able to express themselves and dictate games. It’s a far cry from the “hopefully Michee Ngalina goes sicko mode on the counter” doldrums of the spring.
Of course, none of it would be possible without Renan Ribeiro in net. If Hartford makes the playoffs, the veteran Brazilian goalkeeper may well end up as the USL’s Goalkeeper of the Year.
Two weeks ago in a draw against Memphis, Ribeiro made seven saves. In a win against Oakland this past Saturday, he made six more. This team hasn’t allowed a goal in 429 minutes because their veteran goalkeeper is playing at an elite level, and he’s actually done it all year long. Ribeiro leads the Championship with 9.8 goals saved above expected; no one else is above 7.0. The gap between him and the field is titanic.
Hartford came into the year laden with high expectations after hiring Burke and completely revamping their team. The route to success has been circuitous, and this team has quietly sold or loaned out five players that figured to be difference-makers in 2024. By culling his squad and trusting unproven players like Dieng and Ribeiro, Burke may well have saved Hartford’s year.
McCabe and Loudoun’s floor
Tommy McCabe is one of two Loudoun players to start every single match in 2024. He’s less than half an hour behind Hugo Fauroux for the team lead in minutes. It’s easy to miss McCabe’s impact as a deep-lying midfielder, but his steadiness at the base of the Loudoun shape is crucial to the club’s entire system and a major reason why they’re the East’s dark horse.
McCabe, the club’s captain, is something of a journeyman. Loudoun is his sixth USL club, and he’s done everything from win a title in Orange County to play within Detroit City’s all-time-bad 2023 attack. There’s a chameleonic aspect to McCabe’s game; he knows how to blend into a system. Still, he’s completing passes at a 98th percentile volume and ranks as an 85th percentile tackler. He makes a major impact.
Systematically, Loudoun keeps the ball on the ground and uses the outside backs in their 3-4-3 as initiators to break lines. Just 12% of this club’s passes go long, the third-lowest rate in the Championship.
There’s a ping-pong, tiki taka aspect to Loudoun as they build out. A defender will hit one of the center mids for a quick one-touch pass, with the hopes of forcing the opposition to collapse onto the receiver and thereby lose their structure. McCabe is elite at forcing foes to bend in that way.
You see that formula play out above. McCabe receives from left-sided defender Jacob Erlandson, forces a reaction, and instantly passes back to Erlandson with an upfield angle available. As he returns the ball, McCabe visibly points upfield into the space that he’s just opened. Even though the defender doesn’t take advantage of the available lane, it’s a neat representation of the Loudoun style.
The second play in the reel captures McCabe’s other big strength, an ability to recover the ball in order to keep the attacking zone. That motivating sequence begins with a long cross, one that Loudoun’s offensive 3-2-5 pursues in the counterpress. #4 reads the angle at which a clearance is likely to occur, gets into position, and gracefully heads the ball back to a teammate to salvage the attacking play.
These are small sequences, but they’re absolutely vital for Loudoun. This is one of the five most possessive teams in the USL, and they make their money by keeping opponents under pressure in the final third. McCabe sets up the skip passes that let Loudoun get there, and he does the dirty work to keep the pressure up.
Tommy McCabe is the ultimate floor-raiser. This club has traditionally suffered because of a soft underbelly, a tendency to collapse down the middle against the break and to commit sloppy turnovers. McCabe’s veteran presence and intelligence have put those issues to rest. If Loudoun makes a run this fall, McCabe won’t steal the spotlight, but it’ll be his unsung contributions that set this club up to do it.
Tulsa’s pivot
Edwin Laszo is the most important player in the race for the eight seed in the Western Conference. When FC Tulsa hit their stride in the middle of the summer, Laszo’s steadiness as a true No. 6 let them do so. As they’ve slid in recent weeks, Laszo’s absence has been a glaring omission.
For my taste, Tulsa has shown that their ceiling is higher than the other clubs on the bubble. San Antonio is more talented, but injuries and tactics uncertainty make them less convincing in practice. Still, Tulsa’s potential is for nought without their midfield destroyer.
Laszo is an incredible destroyer at the base of his club’s 4-2-3-1, and he leads all Championship midfielders with nearly seven defensive actions per 90 minutes. At 6’0” and blessed with the build of a cargo ship, Laszo owns the center of the park.
That dominance belies a subtle gracefulness on the ball. The Colombian is also one of the most voluminous dribblers in the league. Laszo isn’t the type to make slaloming runs through the defense. Instead, he’s juking out of pressure and opening up simple passing lanes for himself.
At a team level, Tulsa goes long at the second-highest clip in the USL. Their goalkeepers opt for long passes a whopping 72% of the time. This club wants to switch play to the wings - a need that Laszo fills with his sharp diagonal balls - and requires a strong midfield presence to claim knockdowns. Players like Andrew Booth and Boubacar Diallo have parts of the necessary profile, but they aren’t complete players in the same way Laszo is. There’s a reason Tulsa’s goal difference is an eye-watering 1.1 goals per game better with Laszo on the field.
This weekend’s loss versus Rhode Island FC, a match where the No. 6 started but came off after 22 minutes, was a testament to that impact. When he went off, Tulsa led 1-0. When the final whistle blew, it was a 2-1 loss.
As the match wore on, FC Tulsa absolutely bled space between their lines. Rhode Island turned their guests over in dangerous areas with shocking regularity. Defensive rotations to help cover the channels were slow. It was a game where Mario Sanchez’s club was crying out for a true holding mid.
To ascribe all of Tulsa’s hopes and dreams to Laszo would be shortsighted, but his importance is impossible to deny. This club’s improvements owe a lot to Johan Peñaranda in goal and the output of attackers like Diogo Pacheco and Stefan Stojanovic, but the progress may be wasted unless Edwin Laszo is holding things down in the final five weeks.
Threads!
Here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for coverage of Rhode Island’s comeback win and the core of their offensive game? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Worried about the lack of League One here? Don’t be. My once-a-trimester League One vibe check article is already in progress for the end of the week, just in time for the Jagermeister Cup final.
Speaking of, be sure to check out The USL Show this week! We’ll have Eamon Zayed, the head coach of the Northern Colorado Hailstorm and possibly my favorite-ever Indy Eleven player, live on the show to preview the matchup with Forward Madison.
I was somewhat iffy on The Batman when it came out (too dark! I can’t see what’s happening!) but can’t get enough of The Penguin as a spinoff. Colin Farrell may be my favorite human being alive, but there’s a lot to recommend the show beyond his presence.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Phoenix Rising FC