The Back Four: Dark horses and attendance
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Loudoun, Oakland, and Colorado Springs
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be. I’ll be there with US Open recaps later this week as well.
Missing League One blurbs? Have no fear: my summer vibe check is coming soon.
Now, let’s get to it.
Loudoun, the contender
No team in the USL is executing at Loudoun’s level at the moment. After a 3-0 dismantling of Hartford last week, Ryan Martin and co. are undefeated in the league since May 14th and riding a five-wins-in-seven run.
The success started with a shape change. Loudoun began the year in a back four, but their swift upturn in form began when they adopted a 3-4-3 in attack. The new look allowed the club to drop into a low-block fivesome if needed, but its real importance came upfield in terms of patterns in possession.
As Loudoun build out, they have options. The initial 3-4-3 shape is rife with passing triangles starting with that center back trio and the double pivot of Tommy McCabe (98th percentile passes per 90) and Drew Skundrich (73rd percentile touches per 90). Of the two, McCabe tends to be more staid in his positioning and metronomic in his passing, while Skundrich has a shade more room to roam. McCabe in particular has stood out this season, showing skills he wasn’t allowed to flex at prior stops.
When one of the center mids receives, they’re quick to turn forward on the ball to find an another receiver. Typically, Zach Ryan is that man. Ryan, a striker with seven goals to his name in 2024, is Loudoun’s best linking player between the lines. He’s getting about 26 touches a game on average, but that number was 49 in the rout against Hartford - exactly what the new formation is designed to encourage.
Structurally (and as seen above), Ryan is the cornerstone of two passing triangles in the middle of the park. One is baselined by the pivot, the other by attacking midfielders like Florian Valot, Abdellatif Aboukoura, or Wesley Leggett.
When #14 gets the ball, he has options aplenty; any defense must compress to Ryan amidst that five-man overload. That’s where the wing backs come in. When a defense becomes too tight, Loudoun can spring into their talented wide men.
The play above takes you up the rungs of Loudoun’s attacking ladder, culminating with a dish to wing back Keegan Tingey in acres of space out wide. It’s beautiful, composed attacking soccer.
The next example above comes in a more transitional setting. You still start with McCabe, but the threat of Ryan’s presence down the middle opens Tingey without requiring a touch. By the time Loudoun hit the final third, they’re in a full-blown 3-2-5 shape that stretches Hartford from sideline to sideline with weapons filling every vertical lane.
Variety is the spice of life, and it’s also the engine of a Loudoun attack that can punish you from anywhere on the pitch. We’ve seen two wing back-driven serves here, but why do those players have so much space? It’s because the attacking mids - keep an eye on Wesley Leggett on the right in particular - are making central runs that force the opposing to defense to narrow out.
There’s a different universe where Leggett (or Valot, or Aboukoura, etc.) gets on the end of a through ball and finishes on their own accord. That hydra-like threat defines this side.
Numbers-wise, no team has averaged a shorter average passing distance than Loudoun since their shape change in early May. Only two other teams have a higher expected pass completion rate. Martin has this team playing with control, leveraging simple but progressive passing lanes, and never panicking to launch a ball over the top without a reason. It’s hugely impressive stuff.
no, Loudoun hasn’t had the hardest schedule as of late, but they’re getting results against established and in-form opponents when called upon. A smashing win over Tampa Bay and Hugo Fauroux-driven draw against Las Vegas depict a club that can hang with the big boys. Four of Loudoun’s next six matches comes against teams in home-field advantage slots, but you’d still fancy them to come off well.
I’ve been a Ryan Martin fanboy since I started covering this league, wooed by his ability to take young rosters and form them into coherent pressing teams. Now that Loudoun’s new-ish ownership group has the resources to give Martin a veteran roster, he’s firmly cementing himself as an elite USL manager for all the league to see.
Johnny Dangerously
Oakland is up to second place in a tight Western Conference, and credit for their rise owes to Gavin Glinton first and foremost. When Glinton took over as the interim manager, the Roots sat 10th with eight points from nine matches. They’ve reeled off seven wins in 10 games since then.
Glinton has been decisive across the board to help Oakland improve. The former Turks and Caicos international has (mostly) standardized the Roots within a back four system. He’s made smart positional calls as injuries and match-ups have required, ranging from the use of Camden Riley in the pivot to that of Trayvone Reid and Baboucarr Njie on the left.
Recent weeks have seen another bold call from Glinton: using Johnny Rodriguez as a target winger on the right.
In the 4-2-3-1 seen against Orange County and Louisville, the Roots deployed Rodriguez in a narrow role on one side and Njie in a more expansive position on the other. Because Njie is a speedster and someone with experience as a defender, he was a natural pick on the left wing in tandem with staid left back Justin Rasmussen. Meanwhile, the use of Rodriguez suited explosive right back Memo Diaz’s tendencies on the overlap.
You see that borne out in the heatmap above from the 2-0 win in Southern California. The right flank shines bright with activity in the attacking half, illustrating how the Rodriguez-Diaz pair ate up in the final third.
Rodriguez has six goals on 92nd percentile xG in around 1,100 minutes this year. His 32-for-79 mark on aerial challenges doesn’t paint the picture of an obvious target, but that undersells the way the 26-year-old battles and never allows an easy clearing header.
Even in the last two weeks, #17 is just seven-for-18 in the air, but it’s the volume that counts. If Rodriguez keeps up this pace, he’d rank third amongst all USL forwards for aerial duels per game, narrowly behind Ethan Zubak and JJ Williams - neither of whom can match Rodriguez’s scoring in tandem with the physicality.
The new style has proven equally effective against different defensive systems. Orange County and Louisville are very different teams. Still, Oakland isn’t playing reactive soccer. They’re setting the terms, and they’re using direct entry passes as a set-up for beautiful, flowing offense. Two examples evidence as much above.
Play #1 starts with Paul Blanchette going long from the back, targeting Rodriguez one-on-one against LouCity’s left-sided center back. Beneath Rodriguez, attacking midfielder Lindo Mfeka is ready to pursue a knockdown. On the far side, Njie stretches into the channel to draw the attention of the right-side defender, who could cover space in behind. Most crucially, striker Miche-Naider Chery cuts diagonally behind Rodriguez to meet a flick-on.
That last option comes good, but it isn’t the end of the play. Mfeka bursts up to become an outlet on the right. Rodriguez and Njie make themselves available as shooters on the edge of the box. The flow is lovely.
Play #2 progresses similarly, the difference being that Rodriguez essentially takes on the “striker” spot with both Chery and Mfeka underneath. Chery recovers after Rodriguez’s aerial duel, Mfeka makes another one of those right-channel runs, and their connection set up the match-winning assist. You couldn’t have drawn it up better if you tried.
Oakland’s use of Johnny Rodriguez on the right wing won’t be their tactical terminus. Gavin Glinton knows this league, and he knows that he’ll need to keep iterating to get results. For the first time since their entrance into the USL, though, you trust that Oakland has the vision and the talent to make the necessary changes to push on and challenge for it all in 2024.
Maalique Foster, the USL’s most fun player
I was tempted to include some dumb and subjective categories in my USL awards roundup last week, and something like “most exciting watch” would’ve been an inevitable inclusion. If you want a shoo-in for that title, look no further than Maalique Foster in Colorado Springs.
Foster has always been known as a bold and exciting attacker - remember that panenka? - but has weaponized that verve to maximum effect in 2024. His combination play on the Switchbacks’ right flank has been sublime all season, defining the offensive style for a team rapidly ascending the Western table.
At their best, Colorado Springs are an outside-in offensive team. You start with a capable line-breaking passer like Matt Mahoney at the back, using his technical abilities to hit an option on the sideline. Triangles with (1) a full back, (2) a winger, and (2) a center mid are standard, though there’s variety. We’ve increasingly seen pieces like Ronaldo Damus get involved in deeper positions, and the No. 10 is a mobile supporter as well.
Foster’s flair makes the combination play tick, and it gives the Switchbacks a burst of explosiveness and ingenuity that they otherwise lack. Take the first example above: #99 harasses a defender after an errant switch, collects the ball, jukes two more foes with shocking confidence, and hits right back Koa Santos on the overlap. Foster’s acrobatics force the opposition to lose their sense of shape, and that opens the supporting run.
That’s a scruffy, improvisational sequence, but it does well to show Foster’s quality. The second example, by contrast, is more conventional in terms of James Chambers’ possessive preferences. You start with Zach Zandi (a center mid) hitting Foster (the right winger) while Santos (the right back) overlaps. There are options all over the place that overload the half space.
As the defense backtracks against Foster and a low-dropping Damus, left winger Yosuke Hanya makes an absolutely brilliant left-to-right run against momentum. Hanya is available, and #99 knows it, but he doesn’t opt for a run-of-the-mill through ball. Instead, Foster plays the gaudiest no-look pass you can possibly imagine to set up the go-ahead goal.
The final play comes in another transitional moment, with Foster on the end of a switch over Orange County’s press. The winger gets a one-on-one against a full back, but he won’t settle for a tight-angle cross and uses his first touch to hit a daring flick over that man. Why stop there? Foster’s second touch is another dink, one taking him into the heart of the 18-yard area. There isn’t an end product, but it’s exhilarating stuff.
Since May 4th, Foster ranks in the top five of all USL players with 2.6 expected assists. His quality has opened up Colorado Springs’ offensive game across the board. The knock-on effect? Damus leads the league with more than 7.0 expected goals in that same time frame. Not only is Foster doing it for himself, but his brand of hyper-creative attacking is liberating teammates.
Even with the fireworks, the Switchbacks are a fundamentally defensive team. They’ve allowed just 18 goals, one of only two Western sides under the 20-concession mark. Meanwhile, their offense is sixth-ranked and statistically average. In Maalique Foster, however, they have a talisman, the sort of player who can find moments of magic. He lets this team play a prevention-minded system, paying it off with skill that can drive Colorado Springs all year long.
Attendance Check-in
We’ve rounded the halfway point in the Championship campaign, so it’s a good time to check in on attendance numbers.
At a high level, the average USL attendance is 5088.9 right now. That’s a 9.9% drop compared to 2023 as a whole. I’m not comparing to the exact midpoint of last season, so take that as a caveat - there tends to be a slight summer bump.
Should we be concerned about the decline? It depends on your perspective. The average itself isn’t worrisome when you consider the makeup of the league. San Diego and Rio Grande Valley both sat around 4,500 fans per match, which puts them ahead of their replacements in Rhode Island and North Carolina.
Team-level numbers are the place to focus. El Paso and Birmingham have both seen fairly significant drop-offs, and the discourse from Locomotive fans supports the idea of slightly wavering interest. Declines in Miami and Las Vegas shouldn’t raise eyebrows. The reflect more honest reporting on both fronts, in addition to Miami’s occasional use of a smaller venue.
On the positive side, Charleston and Phoenix have made impressive gains after their title runs. Luckily, there’s nothing going on in the Valley that’ll affect Rising’s upturn. New Mexico is the most impressive of all, boosting their average by about 800 fans to jump into the USL lead.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for Orange County’s annihilation of the Memphis press? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Nicholas Murray penned an absolutely awesome profile of Enzo Martinez last week that you must check out. Martinez is one of the stalwarts of the USL and one of the nicest guys to boot, despite what his no-apologies style of play might tell you.
I’ve sung the praises of PHNX before, but Owain Evans, Max Simpson, and the gang are doing tremendous work. A healthy media holds institutions to account; most USL clubs don’t even have dedicated local coverage, much less reporting that meets such a loft standard. PHNX Rising is comprehensive and actively challenges their club to get better. It’s wonderful to see.
“Restraint” is when Josh Eastern implies that he’s pre-ordered the new NCAA Football on the broadcast but doesn’t name the game because of the league’s Konami deal.
The Rock is better than Con Air which is better than Face/Off. I don’t make the rules. Also, I’m amped to get some more insane and creepy Nic Cage in Longlegs this week.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Loudoun United
Spot on.
The Rock > Con Air > Face/Off