Offseason Notebook: Omaha's re-tool and a roster trend chart party
Analysis of USL squad construction and a deep dive on Union Omaha's winter overhaul
After a 65-point season in which Union Omaha topped the League One table, it’s been a winter of roster discontent in Nebraska. Players worth 58% of the club’s minutes played have left; five have made the jump to the Championship. Not content to swap their kingdom for a mere horse, reigning coach of the year Dom Casciato and his club have assembled a roster likely to bring about a glorious summer yet again.
I broke down Union Omaha midway through their terrific mid-year win streak in 2023, emphasizing a style built on the back of deep-lying central midfielders feeding tucked-in forwards. It all accommodated overlaps from the full backs and made Omaha consistently dangerous. By and large, those tactical tenets seem to driving the philosophy for 2024.
You can see the basic set-up I’m envisioning above; a still-thin squad makes a lot of the decide. New faces are there at every level, from Aaron Gomez in the forward line to Nortei Nortey as a No. 6 or No. 8 to a few pick-ups at the back. What do these players add, and why are they solid fits in the Casciato template?
Gomez stands out at striker, the first of two additions who played under the Omaha gaffer while he was an assistant in El Paso. Indeed, Casciato was thought to be something of an “offensive coordinator” for the Locomotive, so adding a player like Gomez - who had 10 goals and five assists in their lone season together - makes a lot of sense.
The 29-year-old is a very good mover with and without the ball, one who won’t burn you in a foot race but possesses a sneaky first step and an exceptional eye for gaps. He’s a rover of a forward, best used in support of a heftier No. 9 a la Steevan Dos Santos.
You’ll see what I mean in the reel below. One play has Gomez stretching rightward and beating a man on the dribble, while another pictures him running into a central seam to score; note the acceleration. Next, he’s a linking outlet who receives from his goalkeeper between the lines. In the last clip, Gomez is spied dropping into the midfield (a la the Omaha defensive 4-2-3-1 with one low forward) to bolster the press to create a turnover and break.
Gonez is the kind of wide forward or second striker built for this Omaha side; another new add, Adam Aoumaich, is a lovely fit halfway between that position and the left winger role. A former Marshall teammate of Pedro Dolabella - he of five goals and five assists in the midfield in 2023 - Aoumaich projects as a sizzling piece on the left wing.
You see the rookie cooking in the back half of the video package, bursting past a full back to stretch the defense before putting in a left-footed cross to start things off. Hugging narrow in the channel in the second play, Aoumaich controls on his left, takes one more forward touch, and left-foots another ball into the center of the box for an assist. He’s out wide again to start the final example, absolutely dancing in front of an opponent before gaining an inside edge to launch a right-footed, chance-creating ball.
Aoumaich has especially strong control for someone of his age and position, and he’s two-footed enough to credibly do the job if Omaha wants a winger who can interface with an overlapping full back or go it solo by moving inside. For the Marshall man to have an impact, he’ll need to link with the aforementioned Dolabella and ex-Northern Colorado stud Nortei Nortey.
By every account, Nortey’s game is defined by progression skills that shine in the advanced numbers. Per American Soccer Analysis, he was in the top third of League One central midfielders for the distance and verticality of his passing. This is a player who knows how to advance the ball to dangerous areas.
At the back, there have been more reinforcements still. Blake Malone had a previous stint in Omaha lasting one season and seven starts, and he’s got the potential to be a star.
In about 700 minutes as a 19-year-old in League One, Malone didn’t quite generate a consistent or large enough portfolio to generate huge takeaways, but he projected as quite the efficient defender. Indeed, the 6’0” Nebraska native ranked in the 92nd percentile for his tackle win rate amongst center backs in that small sample.
With Colorado Rapids 2 in 2023, Malone played more than 1,900 minutes as a fairly nailed-on starter. The Rapids had the sixth-best defense in MLS NEXT Pro, allowing just 1.3 goals per game, and their now-22-year-old rock conceded only 11 fouls all season long against 11 tackles, 30 interceptions, and an eye-catching 71% win rate in aerial duels.
Mechack Jerome is similarly efficient to Malone, and he’s experienced playing under Casciato after they spent 2021 with each other in El Paso. Jerome was a workhorse with the Locomotive that season and in his Indy Eleven debut in 2022, racking up more than 4,600 minutes. Though the 33-year-old looked a step slow in his final Circle City season, he still completed 62 passes per match and only went backwards on 46(!) completions all year.
You see both in action above. Malone is shown in a difficult moment right off the bat, handling a back-pass with a few opponents bearing down. I’m not gonna say he plays it perfectly, but there’s a lot of control and composure there for someone barely of drinking age. The next two examples are better, and they illustrate a ranginess in his interventions; see the ex-Rapid close down on a line-breaking pass in one play, then turn his hips excellently to tee up an intercepting clearance in the next.
What of Jerome? We start with an extended passage featuring the Haitian defender, a play that exemplifies his progressive, angle-altering dictation from deep as well as a clean back-track against a counter. The second example adds on to the that latter theme, illustrating the former Jacksonville Armada man closing out against a pass over the top.
There’s ample depth at center back, and Jerome will be as much of a locker-room presence as an active difference-maker if the rest of the unit is up to snuff. I don’t necessarily see his acquisition as a move that’ll turn Omaha into a tiki taka juggernaut, but he’s got all the veteran presence you want to hold down a squad that’s seen some flux.
Put it all together, and you’ve got a Union Omaha team estimated at 57.5 points in my way-too-early projection model; they’re firmly in the mix for a home playoff game. There’s plenty more to come for Omaha, but the early returns are strong, and in all in on Dom Casciato’s reign.
What’s changing and what’s staying the same in the world of USL roster construction? There are narratives aplenty about youth development and movement in the pyramid, but what are the numbers showing?
For one, the league as a whole isn’t getting younger at a population level. Above, you can box-and-whisker plots of USL Championship team ages for every year since 2018 to illustrate as much. Leveraging my 2024 depth charts, which include ages and projected minutes, I’ve included the year to come as an estimate. This analysis only includes independent sides, so you don’t have the Baby Bulls or Real Monarchs weighing down the data.
The takeaways? The mean USL player in 2024 is virtually identical to his 2018 predecessor. Indeed, the average has hardly budged an iota. There is a modest effect on the high end, where the oldest team for 2024 may end up two whole years younger than their 2019 counterpart. Still, there’s not much of a gap here.
Does that mean the “play the kids” chatter and the successes of clubs like Orange County or Louisville in youth development are any less valid? Of course not. The USL is both signing and developing more exciting prospects at every level, and I’d anticipate those strides to eventually show up in the numbers.
What about continuity? This offseason, there’s an expectedly positive link between a team’s points per match in the preceding year and the share of minutes played that are retained for the succeeding year. There are a few standouts: Sacramento is near the 90% retention mark, and teams like Richmond and Detroit raise eyebrows by running their rosters back despite more middling seasons.
On the extreme low end, you’re seeing the responses you’d expect. Las Vegas seems to be completely blowing it up after another last-place finish. Hartford has almost entirely reshaped their team under Brendan Burke. As it stands, Central Valley only have four players signed, representing less than 20% of their minutes played in 2023.
In a historical context, this season marks a continued uptick in year-over-year roster continuity. If you rank every team in 2024 against every team in 2018, going from the highest-retention club on downwards, you can see how the share retained has gone up in every possible instance. The average rate of return this year is 54%; only nine teams matched that mark in the 2018 offseason.
Keeping a core around is a surefire way to build chemistry, maintain consistent tactics, and start each season with a baseline to improve up from. I’ve often cited such consistency as a driver of Louisville City’s sustained success. Now, the rest of the USL is catching up, and it’s improving the overall quality of play.
Where are teams sourcing their new additions from? Acknowledging a few quirks of interpretation - like, where do you put a guy who made four appearances in MLS and five in MLS NEXT Pro who then heads to the USL? - there’s been a marked rise in USL Championship teams signing players from the third division. Poaching talent from other second-division teams is still the top priority, but USL League One and MLS NEXT Pro are undeniable growth areas.
Given that there’s a month to go until the season, I’d expect to see more college graduates ink USL deals in the coming weeks for 2024. Guys who don’t get MLS deals will come free, and many clubs in the Pittsburgh or Birmingham mold tend to announce college signings later in the offseason process.
Still, the focus on promotions from the lower leagues is a real plus for the American pyramid. You want to see players jump from tier three to tier two; that’s how this ought to work! MLS NEXT Pro has caught a lot of guff from certain corners, but it’s doing its job as a launching pad, if not a direct one leading to the first division.
That’s all for now. I’ve got a really fun one coming for Backheeled soon, so watch out for that in a week or so; not to be that guy, but it’s one of the best things I’ve written about this sport. This Monday, I’m picking out a breakout candidate on every USL Championship roster.
In other news…
Few people caught that Jeremy Kelly left for Crawley Town in League Two, which is…whoa. Kelly is one of the most exciting midfielders in the league, and he’ll be missed. If you’re Tulsa, you’ve still got five midfielders for three spots, but how long until Nathan Worth is off to Europe? I’m rolling with Pacheco-Adams-Portillo for now and getting a solid No. 6 for safekeeping.
The Seriously Loco gang is back at it with their unmatched El Paso Locomotive coverage, and this week’s interview with Eric Calvillo is can’t-miss.
RBLR Rowdies had new Tampa Bay coach Robbie Nielson on their show, and it’s awesome stuff. Check it out!
Expats on Amazon Prime is the bee’s knees. Lulu Wang, who directed The Farewell a few years back, is the showrunner, and she’s put together yet another gripping and gorgeous story about family and loss. It’s a very “getting strong Boss Baby vibes” move to compare any Asian-led show to Wong Kar-wai, but the observational and naturalistic way Hong Kong is captured recalls that energy.
Thanks for abiding the dumb Richard III shit I’m doing in the intro.
See ya next time!