Jose Bautista and the state of the Lights

Where the club sits after 2023, and why new ownership is cause for cautious celebration in Las Vegas

The Las Vegas Lights have always been fun, at a bare minimum. Between helicopter money drops (and ensuing FAA investigations), live llama mascots, halftime wrestling, and sideline pool seating, it’s hard to ever be bored by Vegas.

Still, the disconnect between off-the-wall marketing and on-field success has grown stark over time. The Lights have never made the playoffs in six seasons of play, coming closest in 2022 when Danny Trejo and Cal Jennings took them within one point of the cut line. More often than not, they’ve been dreadful, regularly finishing at the bottom of the table.

That’s why the announcement that former MLB slugger Jose Bautista had purchased the club is a potential oasis in the Nevada desert. Since losing their affiliation with Los Angeles FC, and realistically even before that point, the Lights had been criminally underfunded in almost every way. Shockingly poor broadcast quality, a seeming lack of any discernible communications teams, and the obvious competitive maladies damned Brett Lashbrook as an absentee owner.

Bautista earned over $100 million as a bonafide superstar in the outfield, and he followed up that success with a successful foray into investing. He was a primary driver between Marucci Sports, for instance, before that company was sold for nearly $600 million in the November of 2023. Between his natural competitive nous and his deep pockets, Bautista can drive real change in Sin City.

What might that change look like on the pitch? It’s hard to say anything with certainty; Las Vegas hasn’t announced a single signing or retention for the 2024 campaign.

2023 is a rocky base to build upon in the first place, but it may be better than you’d think. The Lights won just three matches all season, finishing with 19 total points. Still, I would argue that the numbers were unduly harsh.

Manager Isidro Sanchez came in relatively late, put together a sneakily well-drilled defensive unit, and got unlucky to a certain degree thanks to a penchant for late-game concessions. No team in the USL had a bigger gap between their expected and actual goal difference; Las Vegas finished at -31 against a -10.7 expectation by my numbers.

A typical alignment for the Lights by season’s end

Say there’s a hint of promise in the advanced data. Where did it come from, and what was this club’s identity? The Lights held a majority of possession on average with a 50.3% share, for one, though that’s expected when you spent large amounts of time chasing a lead.

Early in the year, Sanchez implemented a 4-4-1-1 or 4-4-2 shape in an effort to keep things simple, using two proper No. 9s as long-ball targets in attack; only San Antonio went long more often. Without the ball, Las Vegas used their second striker as a roving lane denier and instructed their midfield line to clamp down extremely aggressively.

Late in the year, as mapped out above, Las Vegas opted for a more sprightly 5-2-3 that really put the “five” in “five at the back.” Still, the increasing depth and heft of the defensive line actually opened up space downfield, where Daniel Rios emerged as a dynamite option on the wing.

There wasn’t a change in mien, necessarily, but Las Vegas optimized their use of space and got faster in the attacking half. Rios, a loanee from the Houston Dynamo who (eyeball emojis) is unsigned for next season, shone by streaking into the channels and catching opponents out; Eric Oteng did much the same. Preston Tabortetaka was on a similar wavelength before a mid-season sale to Birmingham, but the speed-centric, countering style didn’t come to fruition while he was on the roster.

The stylistic alterations didn’t lead to a bucketful of wins, but the Lights’ performance improved appreciably. It’s that needle of hope in the haystack of disfunction that makes this team at least semi-intriguing heading into 2024.

At a player-by-player level, Sanchez was able to find some real diamonds in the rough. You do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to him, but Andrew Carleton was tremendous as a play-driver from end to end that ranked in the 86th percentile for expected assists. Justin Ingram and Andres Jimenez both were good in the midfield as well, serving as tempo-setter and destroyer, respectively. At the back, Alejandro Mitrano emerged as a mobile defender of note.

That many individuals excelled while the broader team faltered came down to abhorrent goalkeeping - see a fourth-from-bottom GSAx in the USL - and the fact that no consistent striker ever emerged once Pato Botello Faz went down injured. A low-chemistry roster that was assembled late in the offseason led to a poor start, and a recovery was always going to be an uphill task thereafter.

Progress in 2024 will be hindered in that a few standouts are out the door already. Right back Lucas Stauffer, who barley missed a minute of play, is off to El Paso. His opposite number on the left, Jordan Ayimbilia, is taking his talents to South Beach. Defender Marcelo Lage and loaned-in striker Josh Dolling are part of the expansion effort in Spokane in USL League One.

At a minimum, then, you’ve got a manager with a proven ability to make lemonade out of secondhand lemons, maybe a handful of sneaky-good returners, and a mostly turned-over roster thereafter. I’ve heard about impending upgrades in net via League One, but it’s largely a black box at Cashman Field with preseason action just days away.

In the larger picture, this club requires a full-blown culture change, and that’s neither quick nor simple. Cashman Field needs a revamp, and there’s humongous work to be done to repair relations with the club’s supporters. Attendance is down from 7,700 in 2019 to an inflated 2,000 as of last year. The specter of an MLS bid looms large.

Even if 2024 is a lateral step on the field and even with those headwinds in mind, you can’t help but feel semi-bullish about the future in Las Vegas. Hell, any change was going to be a positive, but Jose Bautista is a figure who inspires genuine confidence. He’s a passionate individual, and he’s got the goods - in the pocketbook and otherwise - to make the Las Vegas Lights a club actually worthy of respect.