Offseason Notebook: North Carolina's re-tool and Westchester on the pitch
On a strengthening North Carolina FC squad and Westchester SC's title potential
Welcome back to the Offseason Notebook! Before we dig in, make sure to check out Backheeled, for a breakdown of USL Championship breakout candidates.
Without further ado, let’s get to it.
On North Carolina
In their return to the USL Championship, North Carolina FC occasionally looked like a powerhouse. Their high-line 5-4-1 was relatively novel in a league-wide setting, and it played into the strengths of a roster built around an organized defense, complete wing backs in Ezra Armstrong and Rafa Mentzingen, and the pace of Oalex Anderson up top.
That characterization is overly simplistic – and overly kind – but there was plenty to like across the board in Cary. Still, there were limitations. Flashes of brilliance in the press and on the counter couldn’t lift NCFC above the playoff bubble, and the club’s ability to dominate territory came in fits and starts. John Bradford’s side ultimately finished in eighth place in the East, ranking 17th in the league with a 46.7% average possession share and 13th with 3.5 final third takeaways per game.
Not all that successful in the press, not all that dominant on the ball, not able to get out of the first round. As stylish as they looked, North Carolina had room to grow. In adding Pedro Dolabella, Tristan Hodge, Conor Donovan, and Patrick Burner, the artists formerly known as the Railhawks have given themselves the tools to make a leap.
Assuming that Bradford sticks with the broad template that he preferred in 2024, this team has already improved markedly with the addition of Dolabella. The ex-Omaha star – whose fit I broke down in detail last week – projects as a box-to-box sort of No. 8 on the face of things, but he’ll presumably see plenty of minutes in the half-space roles and even up top at striker.
Given that North Carolina went long from the back at the seventh-highest rate in the USL last season, Dolabella’s aerial ability will be quite potent in the middle. Indeed, NCFC’s driving aim was to win knockdowns and then go short once ensconced in the attacking half; their field players (i.e., non-goalies) went long at a bottom-third clip in the Championship. The 6’4” recruit from Omaha, who won 60% of his header attempts but also completed 72% of his final third passes, is thus doubly additive.
The offense, which already showed improvements late in 2024 that ought to carry over, will no doubt be slicker from the jump coming opening day. It’s the changes at the back, centered around Hodge and Donovan, that can turn a semi-inspired team into a legitimate contender.
Transition defending was rarely NCFC’s problem. They conceded just 3.0 fastbreak xG last season, the third-best mark in the USL. Indeed, their overall numbers in the run of play were broadly excellent. Still, the role of the outside defenders in the three-man back line felt somewhat caged in.
Consider Lamar Batista. A rangy player mostly used in the left-central spot last season, Batista didn’t have much freedom to push forward on the ball. Of course, that sort of job isn’t why you add Lamar Batista, but it was emblematic of a team that was well-organized but occasionally stodgy. Where rivals like Indy and Rhode Island made hay using underlapping runs from their outside defenders, North Carolina lost ground.
Tristan Hodge, by contrast, is built to maraud. Equally viable as a proper left back or more staid central defender, the Trinidad international knows how to contribute offensively without compromising his team’s system. North Carolina left meat on their formational bone in an attacking sense in 2024, and Hodge is built to glean the scraps and add a new layer to the mix.
He’ll be given the freedom to do so by Donovan, a North Carolina native and a perennial USL leader in defensive actions. If there’s one role in which Donovan, who put up more than 7.5 interventions per match last season, excels in, it’s “centermost defender in a back five.” That deployment shields him from pace-on-pace duels and activates his physical traits in a beneficial way – and it’ll also give Hodge the backstop that will liberate forward advances.
Moreover, Donovan is a rock in set piece situations, where NCFC struggled in a relative sense. Though still a mid-table side while defending dead balls, North Carolina conceded 8.6 xG in such situations last year and overperformed their numbers. Big units like Donovan and Dolabella will help stay that adverse momentum.
The outstanding roster question? How big of a role Patrick Burner will play. Comfortable as a right winger or right wing back, the Martinique international has picked up thousands of minutes in Ligue Un and Ligue Deux over the years. Still in his prime, Burner could displace the excellent Mentzingen in the lineup, or he could allow the USL veteran to move ahead into a more natural attacking role. The options are exciting across the board.
Even with the new faces, it’s no guarantee that North Carolina will make a leap. The East looks even stronger than it did in 2024, and wins won’t come easy. There’s always a concern that opponents will start to catch on to Bradford-ball. Still, the vibes are strong. This offseason may have started quietly at WakeMed Soccer Park, but each and every new signing is logical, additive, and improves the NCFC roster in a meaningful way.
How will Westchester play?
Did I just write 3,000 words about Westchester SC’s expansion process? Yes. Am I going back to the well and writing about Westchester again? Also yes!
Don’t blame me: Dave Carton and the club’s staff have built a truly fascinating roster, one stacked with USL League One standouts up top and a defensive corps that wouldn’t look out of place in the USL Championship. The talent in Mount Vernon is undeniable, but how might this club actually look in practice?
Formation-wise, there’s depth and competition across lines that makes things difficult to predict. The emphasis on wide talent provides some hints, at least. On the right side alone, players like Joel Johnson, Stephen Payne, and Noah Powder would be nailed-on starters for essentially every other club in the division. Using a shape with a full back and a winger – a back-four framework – is the only way to fit those talented pieces together and activate their combination play.
I’ve mapped Westchester in a 4-3-3 above, and that’s mainly due to the aforementioned wide depth and the way such a shape would maximize Conor McGlynn. Comfortable as either a center back or central midfielder, deploying McGlynn at the base of a midfield trio would allow him to essentially fill both roles at once.
In possession, the 26-year-old could drop deep and thereby allow the full backs to fly up the wings; think of it like a 3-2-5 offensive look in practice. Off the ball, McGlynn could then step up like a classic No. 6 in a low-block 4-5-1.
The hold-up? Opting for that sort of look would put a heavy burden on Dean Guezen and Daniel Bouman in the No. 8 spots.
Guezen comes with a fascinating resume if nothing else. Developed in the Ajax system, he posted 7.7 recoveries, 1.1 tackles, 1.2 chances created, and a 60% dribble success rate in the Dutch second tier as recently as 2022. Bouman’s recent track record is harder to pin down, but he posted 0.4 xGA and 0.9 pressing takeaways a match in the Australian A-League in 2021.
Both Guezen and Bouman are high-upside players at the very worst, and they’ll be allowed to flex their offensive muscles with McGlynn tidying up in the pivot. Say one doesn’t hit; Westchester can go for a 4-4-2, swapping out a central midfielder for someone like Koen Blommestijn or even Prince Saydee next to superstar Juan Obregon (17 USL goals in 2024) up top.
Given the depth on the right and the presence of Jonathan Bolanos – a genuine star creator – on the left Westchester won’t lack for chances. Their defense is stacked as well; Kemar Lawrence and Andrew Jean-Baptiste are unbelievable signings for a League One team, and Rashid Tetteh brings years of Championship tenure to the mix. This team’s floor is absurdly high whether it’s 4-4-2, 4-3-3, or something else entirely.
I’ve chewed too much scenery already about a relatively set-in-stone shape, but how is Westchester actually going to play?
Carton’s track record doesn’t reveal much. Despite his years of experience in the Charlotte set-up, the barely-40-years-old manager has never held a head job at the pro level. It’s no guarantee that he’ll carry over tenets from Mike Jeffries’ Independence sides to boot.
Charlotte is an interesting case in their own right. The club reached a final in 2023 and was a comfortable playoff qualifier in 2024, but they were second-from-last in possession and bottom-two in terms of pressing regains during both seasons. If nothing else, the Independence were extremely patient, trusting their star-level attackers to patiently interchange until chances arrived. When Charlotte didn’t have the ball, they didn’t stress about it; they’d find their shape, sit in, and trust Austin Pack to serve as a backstop in net.
Whether Loudoun loanee Dane Jacomen can replicate a Pack-level performance is questionable, and Carton will surely instill a more aggressive system. I wouldn’t expect his Westchester team to dogmatically build short from the back, but they’ve got enough skill to adopt a healthy distributive mix in possession. Given some of the wingers in tow – Bolanos, Powder, Johnson, et cetera – the press has the potential to be quite strong to boot; using the athleticism on the flanks to pin opponents toward the sidelines would be wise.
Even if the specific look is a black box for the moment, Westchester SC is hugely exciting to consider. This projects to be one of the most talented teams in League One history, and it’ll be fascinating to see how Dave Carton brings it together.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Lexington has signed more than 20 players on permanent deals this offseason, and they’re so deep that they’re loaning legitimate senior players out already. Like, you could see Nico Brown doing a great job as a rotation wing back in the Championship! Malik Henry-Scott was very good up top in MLS Next Pro last year! It’s fascinating to see a USL team hoard talent like this – it’s a real zag compared to the rest of the league.
Walmer Martinez was a rare bright spot in an inconsistent Monterey team last year. My value modelling rated him as an 88th percentile wide player in the USL Championship last season, the sort of piece that should’ve easily earned a starting job somewhere in the league. That AV Alta picked him up is enormous news for a team that looks extremely competitive heading into their League One debut.
I’ve been a bit less loquacious on Substack with non-notebook articles as of late, and that’s because I’m deep into the USL Championship preview process at Backheeled. I’m nearly 20,000 words in already, and I’m maybe not at the halfway point. For reference, my entire 2024 preview was less than 6,000 words…so…uh…get excited!
Last weekend, I rewatched David Lean’s The Bridge on the River Kwai, which is one of the greatest films ever made and a stunning examination of honor and morality and all that good stuff. Lean is best known for his epic-length color features – think Lawrence of Arabia or Doctor Zhivago, both bangers – but had an equally prodigious career with more literary black-and-white work in the British studio system.
Imagine my surprise, then, when Lean’s 1946 adaptation of Great Expectations is showing at a theater near me just days later. I wouldn’t call myself a big fan of Charles Dickens, but his work is a fascinating portal into a very Victorian (and often confusingly regressive?) conception of class and social mobility. I don’t even think that the film version of Great Expectations fully works, but I’ve rarely seen a movie that so gracefully builds its themes with costume design and atmospheric production just as much as dialogue and performance.1
So, yeah, go watch a David Lean movie or something!
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
On the performance note: Alex Guinness! He’s good! You know him as Obi Wan Kenobi, but he’s bringing the heat in many of Lean’s best works in addition to the classic Ealing comedies of the era. Truly one of the greats.
Re: NCFC - where is Louis Perez in this mix? Seems slightly too valuable to let slip off the depth chart, although I guess that's a great problem to have for the club.
Re: Westchester - I made a bold prediction on a podcast coming out this morning. Obregon for Golden Boot, Bolanos for assist champion. That is going to be one deadly pair if they click from the start.