Midweek Notebook: Louisville's Showunmi show, and preaching patience in Tulsa

Scouting an undersung addition to the LouCity front line and assessing the state of FC Tulsa after an unexpected overhaul

Welcome in to an irregularly scheduled check-in with the news of the USL week. Programming note: there’s a story I’m super proud of coming to Backheeled tomorrow that you won’t want to miss.

The preseason continues to roll on, and Louisville City was in action today with a lineup full of intrigue. Danny Cruz’s squad - mapped out by half below - won’t match the eleven on opening day, but it’s an interesting peek at the arrows in his quiver for 2024.

Based on their roster build, Louisville will likely prefer a back three this season, so a first-half 4-2-3-1 (or thereabouts; there wasn’t a stream) was a bit surprising. Still, it’s evidence of the fact that this roster is loaded and extremely malleable. To be fair, the second-half squad seemed like a 3-4-3, but it was also loaded with teenagers who aren’t likely to figure in much in the year to come.

If I was struck by anything, it was the inclusion of Tola Showunmi as the starting striker in the first half. Again, you can’t read into unseen friendlies, but Showunmi has bemused me all winter if we’re being honest. The striker is a 23-year-old Englishman signed from the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, but he barely hit 1,000 minutes last year. What gives?

Upon further review of Showunmi’s numbers and tape, I’m a believer. The New Hampshire graduate added 0.61 goal contributions per 90 in 2023, and he did so in tandem with 81st percentile defense actions. Showunmi also contested 18.4 duels per game, the fourth-most among players with his minutes load or greater.

Digging into the tape, it’s clear that bold movement defines Showunmi’s game. The ex-Riverhounds is an active and original runner, and he backs the motion up with a real sense physicality and implacability.

Above, Pittsburgh starts in a 5-3-2 shape with Showunmi as one of the strikers. The 23-year-old makes a patient drop into the right channel, essentially trading places with one of the central midfielders. In doing so - as pictured below - he draws the opposing defense towards one side of the pitch:

Showunmi gets a touch at the end of his inside-dropping move, dragging a defender with him. 6’3” and well-built, he then shrugs off a challenge from behind to hold possession up and let play develop. Pair the defense-shifting run with the even-more-defense-shifting hold-up, and Pittsburgh suddenly has space in the center to cross in for a goal.

The new Louisville forward ranked in the 76th percentile for touches per game amongst attackers last year, and sequences like those shown illustrate why his involvements are so effective. The Englishman is very intentional and sharp in the way he reads the game.

Compare the two plays pictured in the next video, and you’ll see what I mean. Pittsburgh is similarly aligned in both cases, and Showunmi is seen sliding towards the right sideline in the final third. The variation therein illustrates why he’s built for a team as possessive and cerebral as LouCity tends to be.

The first clip again features interchange between a No. 8 and No. 9, and again it’s sparked by Showunmi. The forward receives a throw-in, controls off his chest, and softly volleys the ball to a teammate. In doing so, he draws two defenders his way and opens up that underlapping central midfielder, who receives and crosses in for a game-winning assist.

Reverse the roles in the next example. There, Showunmi is at the tip of the passing triangle, probing into the half space when the defense is drawn out by dual Riverhound ball handlers. The first touch from #24 isn’t exactly clean, but Showunmi turns so sharply that he still has time to serve in a cross.

There simply aren’t half measures from the Englishman. When he commits to a run, he commits hard and executes at high speed. What Showunmi lacks in pure technique, he makes up for in effort and intention.

Let’s consider two more plays, one in the press and one on the break. Both evidence that effortful style of play. In the leading example below, Pittsburgh shifts into a defensive 5-4-1, moving one forward into the midfield. In doing so, they retain the other striker as a roving pest up top.

That annoying presser? Of course, it’s #24. There isn’t anything exceptional on display, but his energy level is good, and his closing angles in pursuit always funnel passes into central traps. Both aspects are a good omen for a Louisville team that’s traditionally aggressive while out of possession.

In the last clip, Arturo Ordonez - himself an earth-shattering addition to LouCity this offseason - is first to claim a defensive clearance. Instead of delaying when he recovers the ball, Ordonez hoofs it right back into the mixer, where Showunmi sits directly between the center backs.

Touches on the chest and knee follow, as powerful as ever, and they open up space for what proves to be a game-winning assist. It’s a connection you hope to see this year at Lynn Family Stadium, and it’s a culmination of the Englishman at his best.

There’s still room to grow. Tola Showunmi’s ideas and physical skills aren’t always in line. He completed just 55% of his passes in the attacking half in 2023. His finishing is still a question, and he only attempted 17 shots for Pittsburgh.

All that said, there’s a special aspect to the striker’s game that cannot be missed. Let him lead the line in a 4-2-3-1. Put him next to Wilson Harris in a 3-5-2. No matter the shape, Louisville City has the infrastructure in place to let Showunmi shine.

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I’ve been keeping my projection model under covers this offseason because the blowback is annoying, but as of mid-January, I had FC Tulsa as the second-best team in the Western Conference. Since then, Blair Gavin has left the managerial job to become an assistant for the New England Revolution, Jeremy Kelly was allowed to join Crawley Town in England, and Charlie Adams has been sold to the Las Vegas Lights; neither Kelly nor Adams ever donned a Tulsa shirt.

On one hand, these are the personnel-friendly moves that every club should aspire to. Tulsa willingly let Gavin and Adams exit for modest fees. In granting Kelly a release, they set a precedent of not standing in the way of opportunities. Future free agents will remember this benevolence, and so will those players’ agents.

On the other hand, the tumult could be damaging for the on-field product in 2024. Gavin was a hugely promising manager that did well amidst injuries and a roster re-tool last season; this offseason was defined by signings tailored to his game model. Kelly and Adams, meanwhile, are two undeniable stars that would shine in any USL midfield. Their losses and the ensuing rotation changes have Tulsa down by eight whole points in my model.

Even so, this team has the upside of a home-field-advantage contender. Gavin was almost certain to run a 3-5-2 built on possessive control, but new coach and sporting director Mario Sanchez has options. He could stick to the extant mold, but the late-breaking transactions could hint at a style more akin to Louisville City’s classic 4-1-4-1.

Sanchez has coached for the LouCity U-23s and served as both assistant and interim manager for Racing Louisville in the NWSL. In moving to Tulsa, he brought Luke Spencer - himself a legend at the Kentucky club - to fill out the coaching staff. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them reprise the possessive back four that carried Louisville for years on end.

Even if you like Sanchez’s profile and accept the empathy behind the transfers, questions remain. What happens in the central midfield if Nathan Worth is sold to Europe midseason? How does a creator like Arthur Rogers fair in a Louisville-inspired system versus a Gavin look tailored to his game? Is Michael Nelson coming back in net - his status is yet unannounced - or will the new regime turn elsewhere?

I’m still bullish on FC Tulsa in 2024, but they serve as a fascinating contrast to Phoenix Rising this winter. Like Tulsa, Phoenix lost their manager to Major League Soccer, throwing a nearly-final roster based around a possessive back three into question. Unlike Tulsa, the defending champs hired from within by promoting assistant Danny Stone, trusting their process to get the job done.

Losing Sam Doerr, Tulsa’s club president, to USL HQ in November stood in the way of Rising-style continuity. Phoenix kept their front office together, maintained a top-down strategy, and simply replaced the on-field executor; Tulsa saw changes at every level. Given those factors, it made sense to pick a respected candidate like Mario Sanchez, give him ample influence in sporting decisions, and re-think the squad.

Impatience will be natural for Tulsa fans. This felt like a breakthrough offseason, one that could turn the tide for an organization with just three postseason berths in club history. 2023 was the set-up; you move on from Dario Suarez and Rodrigo Da Costa and lay the groundwork for 2024. Instead, things have gone in a different direction.

Contrary to those vibes, I’d keep my head high at ONEOK Field. Sanchez has a promising track record, this roster is still loaded with talent from Philip Goodrum to Diego Pacheco to Ruxi, and the West is wide open beneath Sacramento. Despite the surface-level chaos, the Gavin-Doerr regime planted deep roots that can easily be repurposed. The lineup won’t look as anticipated at Christmastime, but FC Tulsa still has the goods to get into contention.

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That’s all for now. In other news this week…

• Kudos to Monterey for making huge strides with their U-18 program. Exactly what you want to see leaguewide. I’ll have more youth talk this weekend vis a vis North Carolina.

• Ariel Martinez is one of those vintage NASL holdovers that I adore, so kudos to him on his retirement and on his joining the Miami coaching staff.

• Alternate history is an extremely fun genre, and Nicholas Murray dipped his toe into it with a whole bunch of 2023 what-ifs. Frankly, I’m here for anyone picking at the Jordan Farr scab in San Antonio, but the whole piece is super engaging.

• Jonathan Check, a consistently fantastic voice in Texas soccer, reported it first, and Nicholas had a very insightful take in The Rondo, but apparently San Antonio is going to be possessive this year? This roster has nine returners (I’m being friendly to Trova Boni, who played approximately six seconds in 2023) balanced out by eight new faces already, so a reorientation is ripe for the taking. I’ll believe it when I see it; old dog, new tricks, etc.

See you on Backheeled tomorrow and on Substack again this weekend!