League One vibe check, summer edition

Ranking contenders and assessing key tactical themes for every team in League One

It was just under two months ago when I last ranked League One contenders, and we frankly haven’t seen a major shake-up since then. Still, with the Jagermeister Cup group phase coming to a close and the league table calcifying, there’s plenty of tactical growth to consider.

What’s catching my eye for all 12 clubs? Who’s looking like an under-the-radar threat? Let’s dig in.

T-1.) Union Omaha and Greenville Triumph

Why pick when they’re both really good and go at it this weekend?¹ Omaha and Greenville top the league table right now, and they feel like the clubs that are undeniably going to be in the mix for a title come October. If I had voting rights in League One, I’d be eyeing Rick Wright and Dom Casciato as nailed-on Coach of the Year candidates.

At the same time, the numbers paint the picture of two teams with a gap between them. The standings are what they are, but Greenville’s attack is a major differentiator between these two sides.

Since May 16th, the Triumph have blown everyone else out of the water in terms of shot creation. They’re averaging 17.2 attempts per game, and no one else is even above 15. Omaha, meanwhile, is getting about five shots less in a given 90 minutes; they make up for it with a 24% conversion rate that’s 2.3 standard deviations about the league average.

Greenville is good-not-great when it comes to shot denial, and they’re coming off a very dumb loss against Lexington where they conceded in 2’ and ended up with 26 shots.

Then, the losing goal came from an opponent stretching the field with high wing backs - the sort of play that wouldn’t be out of place for Omaha. The Triumph’s center backs got isolated as a result and crossed each other up, but the result ultimately felt like bad luck.

The Triumph’s patterns on the comeback trail were extremely encouraging, evidencing why they’ve been an unmatched attacking unit as of late. You’d probably call the shape a 4-2-3-1 on paper, but fluidity was the order of the day. Lyam MacKinnon stretched the left wing and knew when to get inside, and the duo of Sebastian Velasquez (No. 10) and Ben Zakowski (right wing) did manifold damage between the lines.

It’s easy to look at the Triumph on paper and think they’re the MacKinnon show, but that simply isn’t the case. Among League One players with 500 minutes or more this season, Zakowski and Velasquez rate as the second- and third-ranked chances creators. That’s incredible variety, and it makes Greenville a nightmare to defend against.

How should Omaha respond to solidify themselves? I’d focus on the right side of their defense as a flashpoint. If the Nebraskans can feel comfortable with their matchup against MacKinnon, then they can commit the necessary resources across the rest of the pitch to cut off the Greenville hydra’s other heads.

The personnel choices at hand aren’t particularly obvious or encouraging. Casciato mostly runs a back five system these days, and Blake Malone paired with Dion Acoff on the right in a crushing win against Lexington last time out. Both players are wonderful weapons in Omaha’s offensive 3-4-3, but they’re both at rock bottom in terms of their tackle win percentages and defensive actions per 90 compared to their peers.

I like the athleticism and overall tools that Malone and Acoff provide, but the Triumph will push them to their cumulative limit. Casciato could turn to Mechack Jerome in place of Malone - he started on the right a few weeks back versus Chattanooga - but he’s not nimble enough to instill confidence despite his strong underlying numbers.

Fascinating stuff, and I can’t wait to see how both these sides adjust on Saturday.

3.) Northern Colorado Hailstorm

Bruno Rendon is the most explosive player in League One, but after a six-wins-in-seven Northern Colorado run where he contributed to nine goals, things have stalled out a bit in Windsor. Should the Hailstorm be concerned about an attack that’s too heliocentric?

If you’re thinking about last weekend’s loss to Charlotte in a results-driven vacuum, the answer would be “yes.” Northern Colorado didn’t get on the board, and their heatmap indicates that that Rendon’s contributions on the right were the only reliable route to attacking success. Moreover, the Independence loss came after a draw versus Central Valley where Rendon got just seven touches in the box.

The thing to remember is that results and process don’t always align. Northern Colorado is growing in important ways, adding variety that’s going to matter in the long run. These games weren’t disastrous, either: the Hailstorm averaged a perfectly average 1.3 xG and held a cumulative +0.9 xG margin despite picking up a single point.

Along the way, Real Gill (who was interviewed in a wonderful profile from Alex Ashton at League One Updater) got a confidence-instilling goal, and the Hailstorm kept on iterating stylistically.

The powerful thing about NoCo is that they’ve got Noah Powder serving as “Rendon lite” on the left side. Pair Powder’s verve with smart combination play often featuring Jackson Dietrich and Haruki Yamazaki, and you’ve got a real threat that can throw any defense off their footing.

That’s what you see above. Dietrich starts with the ball in the half space as Yamazaki hugs the sideline and Powder sits narrow. They sizzle through the Charlotte defense, with Dietrich using the passing triangle to work himself in behind. Notice Rendon off the ball all the while; he’s stalking the shoulder of the far defender, waiting to make a run at the net.

It doesn’t come together in the end, but it’s evidence of a Northern Colorado teams that’s got some juice despite what recent outcomes might tell you.

4.) Forward Madison

When I wrote about Madison a week or so ago, I highlighted how Garrett McLaughlin could help a streaky attack find a rhythm. In the week since, Madison side lost a heartbreaking Henny Derby game in which #12 didn’t even appear, a zero-goal outing that won’t disprove the “bad offense” allegations.

At the same time, Matt Glaeser’s unit put up 1.5 xG to mark their best return since June 1st. Some of the upswing came as a natural result of chasing the match for 70 minutes, but there were signs of directness and tempo that ought to hearten Wisconsinites.

This play is good and bad in equal measure for Madison - there’s progress, and there’s room to grow.

You start with a pass into Jimmie Villalobos in the central midfield to keep play moving, quickly finding Jake Crull in the left-center portion of the back line where he’s got an angle upfield. Crull doesn’t wait for an short option to develop. He immediately rips the ball all the way upfield to Christian Chaney at the No. 9 spot.

Chaney is a tank, and while his touch isn’t the cleanest, he’s able to lay off to an advancing Derek Gebhard to enter the final third. Everything up to this point is splendid, full of intention and boldness. Things go downhill from there because of a lack of motion ahead of Gebhard, but it’s still a solid bit of offensive soccer. You can imagine a world where an integrated McLaughlin is the man making the crucial run to pay off such a sequence in the future.

Between solid defending and the excellence of Bernd Schipmann in goal, Madison has runway to figure things out. The Richmond loss was one to forget, but it may be evidence of swiftly arriving improvement.

5.) One Knox

Kempes Tekiela took a minute to get going in the USL. The 26-year-old forward moved to Tennessee after ripping 20 goals in 36 matches in Luxembourg; he previously spent four years with Borussia Dortmund’s second team, in case you need evidence of the pedigree here. Tekiela went blank in his first four outings across all competitions, but now he’s riding a five-goals-in-six-games stretch in League One that has changed Knoxville’s year.

Moreover, One Knox has begun to play on the ground more often in recent vintage. Their outfield players go long on just 11.8% of pass attempts in the last three weeks. Control has been the goal, not possession; look no further than a 2-0 win against Madison where Knoxville held just 36% of the ball.

Tekiela’s ability to rove on the edge of the box and navigate in transition and in restart situations has been crucial. You see that above, in three instances of #10 going to work.

The first clip sees Tekiela rove off a teammate as Knoxville advances on the break. He spots a window, cuts inside, and forces a defensive response in the box. The next two plays come from throw-ins, but they exhibit the same energy. Tekiela is able to find pockets in dangerous areas and use practical - if somewhat heavy - touches to create angles.

Graceful? Maybe not, but that ability to find space and do “complete forward” things is a skill set that One Knox has seldom possessed. If this club wants to push above mid-table, Kempes Tekiela’s improvement will lead the way.

6.) Spokane Velocity

Spokane is in an interesting spot in their maiden USL League One voyage. They’ve exceeded the expectations assigned to most expansion teams, but they’ve proven frustratingly unable to level up into a contender. Leigh Veidman’s ultra-possessive 4-2-3-1 certainly did a job to start 2024, but he’s now decided to keep iterating to try and boost the Velocity.

In the second half in a recent game against Northern Colorado and from minute one against Chattanooga last weekend, Spokane ran a heretofore unforeseen 3-4-3. The usual pivot of Andre Lewis and Collin Fernandez still proved influential, and the Velocity’s aggressive defensive mien remained, but new patterns began to emerge.

What stands out? The recently added Masango Akale impressed on the left wing, forming a good relationship with wing back Derek Waldeck on that side. Akale has an intriguing (if as-yet unproven) profile as a runner in behind. So far, it’s his ability to drop into the pocket, draw out the defense, and free Waldeck’s overlaps that have been especially good.

Defensively, Spokane have stuck to their high defensive line. Having an extra central defender has been a boon, in fact. We’ve seen Ahmed Longmire and Marcelo Lage step up aggressively in the past, but now they’re doing it with extra coverage and support.

You see that defensive look in action here, with Waldeck and fellow wing back Javier Martin sitting in a fivesome at the back. The opposing Red Wolves ran a 4-4-2 that could push into a 4-2-4 in this match, so the new shape gave Spokane surety against their forwards.

The give-and-take at the back was a joy, and Camron Miller - the new face in the center back corps - led the way. He went seven-for-nine on duel attempts and provided a comforting level of headiness. You still saw Longmire (four defensive actions) and Lage (six clearances, five of which came in the air) do their jobs, and things solid in front of a sneakily shaky situation in net.

Note the midfield shape above, while we’re at it; you see a classic center mid split with a high man and a low man. Spokane did similar things in their previous 4-2-3-1 by pushing a member of the double pivot up a line, and that tenet has seemingly carried over.

You get a sense of the wing dynamic here, with Akale and the all-important Luis Gil dropping low from the attacking spots to form a box-shaped foursome down the middle. If you’re on the defensive side here, you’ve got decisions to make. Do you push your center mids high against Lewis and Fernandez, or do you sit deep against the dropping wingers? How aggressively should your defenders close down and mark Gil and Akale? Spokane’s shape is built to ask those questions.

While the play above doesn’t come off, it results in a third outcome: Chattanooga decides to get super narrow, and they’re switched over as a result. Waldeck can’t meet the end of the diagonal, but the intention is clear.

At a macro level, this team is so fascinating because of their inability to finish in spite of unmatched shot quality. Spokane has averaged 0.14 xG per shot, which is first in the league by a comfortable distance and 2.6 standard deviations above average. You have to blame Josh Dolling’s finishing to a certain extent, but this is a team-wide issue. I did like how Dolling dropped in for touches within the context of the new shape, but that’s maybe the sort of run that yucks Gil’s well-established yum.

Ultimately, the shape change is fascinating and will probably lead to some improved outcomes, but Spokane still feels like they’re a No. 9 away from being serious.

7.) Richmond Kickers

If you missed Richmond’s added time winner over Forward Madison in last week’s Henny Derby, you were probably lost in an undersea submarine or living under a rock. The match was a wonderful showcase of the Richmond soccer community as a whole, and it culminated in a Chandler O’Dwyer header off a Nil Vinyals free kick to seal the deal.

Set pieces are a crucial facet of the game, and the best teams have specific strategies to weaponize them at one end and blunt their effectiveness at the other. The Kickers have a crucial secret weapon in dead-ball scenarios, and that’s Vinyals’ right foot.

You see a table of League One’s leading xA generators from corner kicks above, a category by which the Spaniard comes second in the division. Crucially, Vinyals is also second in expected points added; he’s putting in expert service when matches are on the line. I wax poetic about the midfielder in the run of play fairly regularly, but his - and Max Schenfeld’s! - penchant for good set piece deliveries can be a crutch for the Kickers.

While we’re at it: love the back three. With Nathan Aune healthy, there was a real scenario where Richmond pushed teenage starlet Griffin Garnett to the bench. Adding Aune into the mix and changing shapes is a smart response, one that’ll be fascinating to track as Emiliano Terzaghi, Adrian Billhardt, and Vinyals forge chemistry further ahead.

8.) Charlotte Independence

I’ve been too mean to Charlotte this year, and it’s largely because of the gap between the immense attacking talent they’ve got on paper versus their tepid outcomes. The Indepedence are putting up 1.19 xG per game across all competitions this season, second-to-last in League One. They’re holding just 46% of possession on average, which also puts them in 11th place.

Even so, there’s promise here. Charlotte puts the second-most shots on target per game, and they’ve cleverly switched up some of their player deployments to improve themselves at every step of the ladder in build.

You start with Charlotte in a 4-2-3-1 here, and it’s Luis Alvarez - often a winger or second striker earlier in the season - dropping from the pivot between the center backs to help grease the attacking wheels. Alvarez has a team-high 12 chances created and 21 cross attempts in the league this season, but he’s skillful enough to do the progressive job when called upon. That’s where we’re starting in the example.

From there, the Independence can push their defenders wider and work around the edge. It’s a virtuous cycle that starts with Alvarez and ends with ample width in the final third and the ability to keep forwards tight to create ann overload.

In a 4-2-4 (or 2-2-6 if we’re being friendly) by the time they hit the box, Charlotte has striker Juan Obregon drop off for a touch. Kharlton Belmar notes this from the left wing and cuts inside against a double-teamed defender. It’s a smart run, and it nearly creates a chance for the Independence.

Is it perfect? Obviously not, but it’s the sort of creativity and flow that Charlotte have barely generated in 2024. More of this, please.

9.) South Georgia Tormenta

Since June 1st, Ajmeer Spengler has just three shot attempts in 288 minutes. He’s created five chances, all of which have gone wanting. One of the league’s most exciting rookies and a lovely one-on-one dribbler, Spengler has even been shunted into the pivot amidst the downturn.

Jackson Khoury is in a similar spot. In about half of Spengler’s minutes, he’s also zero-for-three on shot attempts and assist-less despite creating multiple chances. Lump Khoury in with Aaron Lombardi and Alsadiq Hasan - his platoon mates on the left - and you’re looking at more than 1.5 expected contributions that have gone unmet.

Pedro Fonseca has underperformed his expected goals by a -1.42 margin in that same stretch. Mason Tunbridge is exceeding his underlying stats…but that’s it among South Georgia attackers. Tormenta’s offensive stalwarts just aren’t getting it done, and it’s a mix of subpar execution and confusing deployments that are dooming a well-considered back three system.

Last week’s loss to Knoxville extended Tormenta’s winless run to seven games. They haven’t picked up three points since mid May, in fact. If you’re looking for an issue, “drawing names from a hat” squad selection is a big deal. It’s leading to chemistry issues, slow offensive moves, and plays like you see above where talented attackers (i.e., Spengler) are forced to come low into the defensive half for touches.

Not great! I’ve still got a soft spot for this side, but it’s a really frustrating time to watch Tormenta at the moment.

10.) Chattanooga Red Wolves

You know when you’re watching an old cartoon and someone’s eyes bulge a few feet out of their head? I’m picturing, like, Jerry from Tom and Jerry seeing the female cat?

That’s me looking at Chattanooga’s defensive numbers.

I last did this vibe check exercise in mid-May. Since then, the Red Wolves have conceded 2.58 xG per game in the league. That is unbelievable.

Against Spokane last week, the big issue came on the flanks. The Red Wolves did well enough to stay compact in a 4-4-2 and deny the central midfield, but their full backs - particularly Owen Green on the right - were eaten alive by two-on-ones that the Velocity created.

There were hints of the same issues a week prior against Omaha, but set pieces were the real calamity. Chattanooga shipped two goals off of set pieces in the opening ten minutes and couldn’t find a mark to save their lives. They’re dead last in League One with 2.9 total xG conceded in dead ball situations across all of 2024.

This winter’s rebuild in Tennessee was built on defensive improvement. Clearly, things haven’t gone to plan. As much as I like the talent here and think Scott MacKenzie is an underrated tactician, injuries and an inability to integrate new defenders have sunk the Red Wolves’ ship.

11.) Lexington SC

By the 40th minute in their match against Omaha this Saturday, Lexington already trailed by four goals. It felt like the nadir in a season already gone terribly astray from preseason title expectations. Lexington hasn’t won a match in the league since March - their only league victory - and while they’re almost certain to advance in the Jagermeister Cup, 2024 has been a trial.

What went wrong against Omaha, and how does it encapsulate the season as a whole? The sequence leading up to the guests’ go-ahead penalty felt like a neat example of Lexington’s issues in the Darren Powell era.

The play begins with Lexington in possession, building from the right in their recently-adopted 5-3-2 shape. More accurately, the formation is something akin to a 3-1-4-2 in build with the wing backs up, Isaac Cano and Ates Diouf as higher No. 8s, and Abel Caputo alone in the pivot.

Lexington struggles to build out on the ground, so right-sided defender Ebenezer Ackon tries to do damage on the dribble. He’s closed down and turned over, and Omaha is thus able to attack.

They go at Caputo, bypass him to enter the left half space, and isolate Modesto Mendez on the far side of the back three. One errant tackle later, and the referee is pointing to the spot.

Let’s dive in: what went wrong to doom this play?

I’ve chronicled Lexington’s struggles in build previously this season, decrying their poor spacing and lack of tempo. Early in the year in Powell’s 4-4-2, the spacing was too tight, but it’s the opposite case here. When Caputo receives amidst Omaha’s front three, he needs a quick outlet to hit between the lines. There simply isn’t one available.

Cano struggled immensely to make himself known in that left-of-center midfield deployment, and you know so because he isn’t even in frame above. The loanee from LouCity came off at halftime when Lexington changed formations, but he only had 16 touches in the first half.

Diouf got 33 touches in the full 90 minutes, but that’s about 25% less than goalkeeper Amal Knight. Not what you want from your most explosive creator!

Lexington’s heatmap in that 4-0 first half makes it clear that they had nothing going in the half spaces - the territory hopefully occupied by Cano, Diouf, and forwards Nico Brown and Azaad Liadi on the drop.

There’s lots of feckless action around the edges, but it amounted to nothing in practice. You’d think that wide possession would allow players like Tate Robinson to serve passes from the sideline, but Lexington only attempted - not completed - two crosses in the opening 45 minutes.

Back to the play, where Caputo has passed backwards and Ackon has given the ball away on the dribble. By the time you get to this second screenshot, Lexington has...kinda got into shape? Ackon is still 10 yards higher than CC Uche at the heart of the back line, and Christian Lue Young is nowhere to be found in recovery at left wing back, but there’s a semblance of a defensive block forming up.

Even so, the issues are clear. Omaha has two players centrally, and Caputo has committed to the one on his left; that allows winger Aaron Gomez to find the ball on Caputo’s other hip and push past him into zone 14. Meanwhile, neither Uche nor Mendez steps up against Gomez while he cuts inside.

The shape is mediocre from the start, but a well-timed intervention would be more than enough to put out any potential fires. No such challenge ever comes. Gomez and Omaha keep pushing into the area, and the rest is history.

Passive defending has defined Lexington far too often in 2024. No team in League One has taken the ball away less often this season. That paucity of takeaways is leading to real danger. Lexington has allowed opponents to generate more G+ on the dribble in their third than all but one other club in the division.

In layman’s terms: Lexington rarely puts in tackles, and they let opponents dribble a lot in really dangerous spaces.

It’s a nasty mix, one that points to a lack of defensive cohesion in addition to the possessive dissonance. At almost every level and at every position group, Lexington simply can’t get right.

Is that a failure of Darren Powell on the sideline? Is it the result of recruitment focused on name brands rather than a bigger tactical vision? Ultimately, it’s a bit of both, but it has combined to leave this Lexington side in shambles more often than not.

12.) Central Valley Fuego

You could probably find reasons to doubt Central Valley all over the pitch, but their problems in net might be the gravest sin of all. Their goalkeeping has been downright ghoulish for all of 2024, but it should never have reached this point in the first place.

Andre Zuluaga-Silva has been bad, but he only has two league starts and grades out as a typical “meh backup” if you dig into the advanced numbers.

Carlos Avilez, by contrast, has been calamitous. He’s allowed 6.5 goals above expected in 2024 to rank last in the division by a country mile. There are goalies with limited time in Avilez’s neighborhood on a per 90 basis, but for someone to perform that poorly and keep starting is wild.

The thing about Avilez is that he’s been this bad for…years? He gave up 6.8 goals above expected with Chattanooga last season and 5.4 the year before that. Avilez’s worst season of all came in 2021, when he gave up an unwarranted extra goal every 90 minutes on a rate basis. Give his agent an award!

On the flip side, late arrivers like Issa Yaya and Clayton Torr have been perfectly cromulent at the back, and I’m so here for Dembor Benson. Still, it’s all for naught if the situation in net keeps up.

1. Gun to my head? The Triumph are the actual #1.