League One players to watch, Part II

Assessing ten more key players who will impact the tactical outlook of the 2024 USL League One campaign

The League One season is right on the doorstep, kicking off simultaneously with the Championship this weekend. I previewed a handful of players to watch way back in January, and I want to round out the offseason by repeating the trick with a few more stars who will be definitional to the 2024 campaign.

These selections aren’t necessarily MVP candidates, but they’ll all be crucial to the way their teams will play. Some are returners that must maintain their level to assure success. Others are new additions meant to shift the tactical outlook of their club.

Adrian Billhardt firmly falls into the latter camp. The former League One Comeback Player of the Year with Tormenta, Billhardt is the biggest-ticket addition for the Richmond Kickers this winter. He’s a threatening creative presence that can slot onto the right wing or in the center of the park, and he’ll give the Kickers a much-needed secondary creator between Nil Vinyals and Emiliano Terzaghi.

Richmond, who returned 72% of their minutes played from 2023, are the second-ranked team in the league when it comes to retention share. There’s a lot to like thanks to the Vinyals (97th percentile expected assists) types, but Billhardt is a much-needed change of pace with a more expansive and final-third-oriented mien. I expect him to start on the right in a reprised 4-3-3.

The Kickers finished second-to-last with the third-worst offense in the league last time around, but they had a clearly possessive identity thanks to the shortest average completed pass (6.7 yards per completion) in the division. Billhardt can meaningfully stretch the field to provide more variation or fit like a glove in a similar style. Darren Sawatzky has options.

Speaking of teams looking to take a leap, look no further than the Central Valley Fuego. Under new manager Jermaine Jones, Fuego have pulled a reverse Richmond by retaining a League One-worst 35% of their minutes played. The additions have been somewhat slow to arrive, but former Las Vegas Lights and Reno 1868 midfielder Raul Mendiola stands out as the belle of the ball.

If Jones is doing the obvious thing, Mendiola will be the No. 10 in a three-man midfield, providing ample goal-scoring gumption and two-way creation atop one of the most gifted positional groups in the entire division. Behind him, Chris Heckenberg (82rd percentile defensive actions) is a plug-and-play destroyer at the No. 6 slot, and Jose Carrera-Garcia (92nd percentile pass completions, completion rate, and tackle win rate) is the box-to-box dynamo that’s the only legit contributor this club kept around. You can see the vision for a trio in which Mendiola holds down the fort.

More of a two-way option in the Carrera-Garcia vein, Andre Lewis will be an unsung hero within the pivot of a putative 4-2-3-1 for the expansion Spokane Velocity. Lewis can be a midfield stopper when called upon, but he’s a shuttler with really good instincts and a fearless demeanor in the middle of the park. The Jamaican center mid won’t be the most progressive player in a given side, but he chooses his moments splendidly.

I like the cut of Spokane’s jib, and Lewis is a big reason why. Pair him in the pivot with a more aggressive Collin Fernandez in a more pressureful look, have him as the deep man alongside superstar signing Luis Gil (nine assists on 98th percentile expected assists in Omaha) amidst a 3-4-3, or do something else entirely; Lewis is up to the challenge.

Having a player to do that dirty work is important in that it’ll allow the Velocity to get creative on the flanks. Gil is a guaranteed workhorse, but diversifying the approach and weaponizing Derek Waldeck, a six-assist man in Knoxville, or Romain Metanire, a former MLS all-star, as attackers on the overlap while Lewis takes care of business will be crucial.

Lalo Delgado is the sort of goalkeeper who provides a solid base for experimentation in that same manner. Northern Colorado have lost quite a bit of talent between Arthur Rogers, Trevor Amman, and Rob Cornwall, and they’ll need to feel things out early in 2024 no matter how much I like their additions. Delgado, who registered 88 saves on a 71% save percentage and ranked in the 89th percentile for goals saved above expectation last year, can cover over any potential defensive issues and let Eamon Zayed get wild in Windsor.

Delgado tends to be a mixed-distance passer, and he rated sixth out of 15 League One goalkeepers with 1,000 or more minutes in average distance last year. There ought to be some long boots headed rightward, with Noah Powder and Bruno Rendon hinged upfield on that side. Still, expect a slightly more defensively-initiated approach.

David Garcia’s entrance in central defense will be key in that regard. A champion with North Carolina FC and high-volume progressor, Garcia ranked in the 85th percentile for forward pass share among defenders last year and replaces the somewhat safer Cornwall, who ranked in the 36th percentile while deferring to Rogers’ deep-lying creation. Again, though, there’s room to experiment on and off the ball because Delgado is just that good.

Northern Colorado had a breakout year in 2023, and their rivals in Kentucky will hope to do the same in 2024. David Loera, a somewhat under-the-radar addition, will be utterly crucial if a revamped Lexington team accomplishes as much. Loera thrives as a slaloming ball-mover on the break, and he has the vision and technical gifts to do damage between the lines as a No. 10. This club has recruited ample help at center back that’ll bleed into the defensive midfield, but Loera is fairly distinct in terms of the role he’ll play.

I’m broadly fine with what Lexington did at center back, even if I’m not quite over the moon. Up top, Ates Diouf, Cameron Lancaster, and Azaad Liadi are more than enough to get the job done as goalscorers. You can rely on Jayden Onen, who had six assists in Madison last year, for some creation, but he’s a second striker or winger by nature. Loera gives you something different and important within the context of Darren Powell’s system.

Also: real curious to see the opening day lineup. I’m strongly hoping for a Jorge Corrales renaissance on the left side of a back three.

One state to the south, Knoxville have retained just about two-thirds of their minutes played from last season, but Kingsford Adjei is the sort of sparkplug who will reinvent their offensive system. This club was very possessive in 2023, having controlled 56% of the ball in their expansion year while completing the fourth-shortest passes on the eight-highest long passing rate. Adjei has the strength and control to pay off chances within that look or forge a new path forward, one more defined by verve on the counter.

Adjei came into League One as a dynamic scorer, one armed with a wicked right foot where it counts. He mostly served as a role player in Tormenta last year, but his minutes-adjusted numbers were pristine. I’d argue he was somewhat miscast as a purer winger in Statesboro, and the loss of a purer sort of No. 9 in the form of Jake Keegan for Knoxville means that Adjei can slot right into a proper striker position after his move.

Speaking of attackers who could see a new deployment in the year to come, look no further than Tresor Mbuyu. The Charlotte Independence man had nine goals and four assists in a runner-up season, but he mainly did so as a winger. Working off the gravity of Dane Kelly and Khori Bennett’s 14 goals as out-and-out strikers and the presence of star midfielders, Mbuyu had a breakout season. He’ll need to continue the evolution in 2024.

Bennett and Kelly are out, and they haven’t been replaced. You could put Gabriel Obertan or Ibarra, those aforementioned midfield maestros, up top as false No. 9s, but there’s no doubt that Mbuyu is the most natural fit for the role. He’s got the quick-thinking verve and instinct as a mover to do the job, and he’s made a handful of starts up top dating back to the Independence’s Championship days.

As an aside, Charlotte’s offseason has been weirdly rudderless, especially for a team that was very good last year. Hugh Roberts is a good add to be sure, a local favorite that will take this club into a back three alongside Nick Spielman and Shalom Dutey, but nothing else has gone on! I suppose Joel Johnson can invert to replace Avionne Flanagan at left back, but there’s a real imbalance at the moment. Mbuyu needs to come up big to make up for those ostensible deficiencies.

Elsewhere, Union Omaha have filled their left back spot with PC, a player I’ve loved since his NASL days. Wickedly skillful and intelligent, he isn’t quite the speedster or overlapping dynamo that you might want to match Dion Acoff on the right, but he more than makes up for it with his nous. The Brazilian is still only 29, and if he stays fit, he’s a high-end Championship level player.

Pending other additions, PC seems like the starting left back as mentioned, but I would prefer him in a central deployment. In his last fully healthy year in San Antonio, he played a No. 6-No. 8 sort of role, picking up six assists in 26.5 matches of play. Both his defensive actions per 90 and forward passing share rated in the top third of Championship central midfielders.

Omaha don’t necessarily need PC there if Pedro Dolabella and Nortei Nortey can bring enough defensive quality to supplement their progressive brilliance. Still, it seems like his natural evolution to grow into a string-puller and timely tackler in Nebraska.

Another player to jump from the Championship to League One is Tim Trilk, who’s no stranger to Chattanooga after making 19 appearances there in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Trilk wasn’t expected to be Indy’s start last year, but he did very well when called upon in 14 starts. His goals against, in pure and expected terms, were solidly above water. The 25-year-old isn’t necessarily breathtaking as a sweeper or passer, but he emerged as a highly functional option for an Eleven side that dogmatically kept the ball on the ground.

Trilk completed 72% of his passes last year, 5% better than Carlos Avilez and 3% better than Ricardo Jerez for the Red Wolves. He’ll likely help to inaugurate a more possessive style for a club that had the second-longest average distance on their completions and the third-highest long passing rate in 2023. The additions bear out that approach, with defensive upgrades like Leo Folla and Gustavo Fernandes likely to help out.

Finally, I want to spotlight Forward Madison’s Jake Crull, a returner for a club that is Charlotte’s polar opposite in terms of monetary outlay. Austrian-born, Crull has experience with Omaha and Tucson, and he’s equally good as a bigger left back or a more skillful central defender. Given the breakdown of the Madison roster this year, especially given the addition of ex-Omaha teammate and left wing back Ferrety Sousa, Crull ought to hold down the left side of Matt Glaeser’s back three.

Crull has grown in his ability to affect and control the run of play with each passing season. He ranked in the 15th percentile in terms of touches per match in 2021, upped that to the 47th in 2022, and leapt to the 93rd in 2023 while grading out as my model’s single-best center back in League One. The defender also tallied the third-most interceptions and seventh-most tackle attempts in the division.

Madison ought to pair Christian Chaney (10 goals last year) and Juan Galindrez (13 goals two years ago) as a bullying strike pair, and they’re rife with options to form a three-man midfield look depending on how they want to operate with the ball. Crull’s combination of possessive surety and step-into-the-midfield destructive instincts will allow for those advanced lines to do damage. Even if Glaeser sticks with a back four - likely in a 4-3-3 to fit Derek Gebhard - Crull will still be crucial, and he has more than enough talent to cover the extra ground will excelling as an initiator.

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Want more League One coverage from me? Be on the lookout for a team-by-team preview on the official USL League One website.

To elaborate on the intro: check out my other article for picks for Greenville and Tormenta. Northern Colorado and Lexington get double coverage across the articles, but that’s because I’m an idiot and didn’t double check before I started writing this.