Why are the Locomotive off the rails?

Examining El Paso's extended run of poor form

In the midst of a nine-game winless run, El Paso are on the verge of full-blown crisis mode with a third of the USL season yet to play. This was a team that, in Brian Clarhaut’s first year as manager, quickly found their feet to become a contender in the Western Conference. That early success has made the collapse all the more surprising.

Beginning with a draw against Tampa Bay on June 17th, the Locomotive haven’t earned a single victory in two months. During that run, they’ve sunk to a 5.6% conversion rate, down from 12.2% in their first 14 games. The latter number is a tick above the USL average; the former would put El Paso dead last in the league, and comfortably so.

Even so, El Paso has held 55.2% of possession on average during their drought. The issues have come down to the quality of chances created and of those conceded. Indeed, the last nine games have seen the Locomotive allow 11.33 shots per game versus 11.35 in the opening stretch. The patterns have remained the same, but the outcomes are demonstrably worse.

Since the skid began, El Paso has fallen from 99%+ playoff odds and favorite status for a home playoff game to a 65% chance of qualification. That percentage puts them 8th in the West, wedged between teams like Colorado Springs and New Mexico on the knife’s edge for postseason qualification.

Their goal difference, mapped alongside the odds, tells a similar story. The Locomotive’s disastrous run of form has plunged them deep underwater, falling from +8 to -8 in short order.

It’s worth considering what went right early in the year and turning to the tape to see what’s changed.

Above, you see a nice offensive move from a win in Colorado Springs from May. The patterns and philosophies innate to the attack are clear. El Paso rolls with their basic 4-4-2 shape, one that Clarhaut has preferred from the jump. As they break into the Switchbacks’ half, right midfielder Denys Kostyshyn tucks into the center of the pitch. In doing so, the Ukrainian draws the defense in and opens up space on the wing for an overlap by the right back alongside him.

At the same time, striker Luis Solignac comes low to further distract the defense. Between his and full back Miles Lyons’ runs, the back line is caught between a number of competing motivations, allowing Ricardo Zacarias - the second striker in the 4-4-2 - to streak into the now-open channel.

Between the narrow deployment of Kostyshyn, a player with four goals and two assists on the year but none in July or August, and the types of runs seen from the strikers and full backs, this is a prototypical El Paso move. What happens, however, when defenses start to catch on to those patterns?

In this example from the Miami game, a 4-0 loss in early August, the defense stays much narrower and tighter, aware of the fact that the Locomotive are trying to find Kostyshyn down the middle. There’s much less of a central drive, with both central midfielders - Luis Moreno and Eric Calvillo here - lagging back.

El Paso gets into the final third, but there isn’t a second wave of movement to bend Miami. Part of it comes down to squad issues. Liam Rose, a preferred option in the central midfield, missed the first half of this match on the way back from a minor injury. Without the surety of the Australian No. 8 alongside him, Calvillo isn’t confident enough to make a run into the box. Injuries and squad issues have been a silent killer during the winless stretch, highlighting a roster with high-end starters but imperfect fits for the Clarhaut system deeper down.

Back to the clip, you’ll note that the runs (or lack thereof) made by the strikers are rather straight-line and unexciting. It all leads to a half chance at best, one that isn’t going to beat most halfway-decent defenses.

One of El Paso’s tics this season has seen Eder Borelli, the preferred starter at left back, play deeper and narrower than his opposite number on the right. Borelli is a staid, veteran presence with a bit less athleticism in the tank, and Clarhaut has accomodated him as such.

El Paso plays with a true 4-4-2 in defensive block, compacting into dual banks of four players. Borelli is more than competent in these set situations, but his positioning can be a flashpoint in transition. You see how Monterey targets the left back with a switch in the clip above from a scoreless draw in July.

This ends up as a solid defensive play for the Locomotive. Marc Navarro recovers well at right back, the entire back line rotates smoothly to slow the break, and both Rose and Calvillo lodge themselves in centrally. Watch Aaron Gomez on the left wing, too; this is a solid team effort across the board to find that base shape.

It’s a stop, but there are warning signs amidst that initial penetrative stretch.

This play, from a 3-1 loss two weeks later against Oakland, sees the danger come good. Borelli is drawn narrow again, but he’s physically contested by an opposing attacker and can’t slide back wide. Meanwhile, Petar Petrovic is slow to cover behind him from the wing, and neither central midfielder is there to claim the second ball. It’s a shot for the Roots, but the spacing issues are glaring across the board.

If the Monterey clip showed hints of structural issues, the Oakland clip illustrates how smart coaches noted the relevant trends and exploited them. El Paso, meanwhile, never made the changes they needed to patch up those holes.

Instead of going for subtler tweaks, Clarhaut wholly reinvented the wheel with a 5-2-3 shape against Phoenix last weekend. Rather than fix the issues, the shape change led to a 5-0 drubbing that was, without a doubt, the worst performance of the year for the Locomotive. The center back trio of Navarro, Yuma, and Erik McCue was woefully out of sync, and the wing backs in the system were somehow both defensively irresponsible and offensively feckless.

El Paso’s front three had extra numbers against the oppositions dual center backs as they built out, but the Locomotive were hesitant to push the issue and create turnovers. Those same forwards tended to stay very narrow, ostensibly to deny the middle of the park, but in doing so, they let Rising run rampant in the half space and on the flanks.

You see those trends above. Calvillo has to step wide without the support of the forwards, but Phoenix works around him anyway. Thus, the center is weakened. Meanwhile, Rising has a three-on-three edge against the back line before support arrives, and their clever movement sends the low-chemistry Locomotive in a tizzy. It’s a yo-yo of side-to-side recoveries that ultimately let the hosts get a decent shot off on the way to an ultimate rout.

Why panic and completely upend your season-long identity when a smoother transition to a 4-3-3 was worth a look and you’ve just sold your best center back? The latter point deserves examination; defender Bence Pavkovics was sold after becoming one of the final nine players to have played every available USL minute in 2023. Check out the Seriously Loco take on that for the proper perspective.

In the end, this horrible form comes down to an inability to evolve. Clarhaut found a 4-4-2 that fit his best lineup and took the USL by storm. When injuries came and opponents adjusted, Clarhaut didn’t have the flexibility to counter-punch tactically or tailor his lineup to the specifics of his rotation players. Those faults have El Paso’s season hanging by a thread.