What to expect from Wilmer Cabrera in El Paso

Examining what Cabrera's past could mean for the El Paso Locomotive's future

When the El Paso Locomotive announced Wilmer Cabrera as their new coach, my first reaction was that of doubt. Since he took over the Houston Dynamo in 2017, Cabrera’s teams have picked up 1.37 points per game; that puts you at 46.6 points across a 34-game USL season, a fraction over the typical playoff cut line.

“This guy is great at getting you onto the bubble” isn’t a selling point in a vacuum, but it’s an extraordinary achievement when you consider Cabrera prior stops.

Per Capology, Houston had a bottom-three payroll in each season where Cabrera was in charge. Cabrera had a nine-game stint in Montreal afterwards (including a title run in the Canadian Championship) where the club’s salaries ranked sixth-from-last in MLS. Though USL salary numbers aren’t public, it was widely thought that Rio Grande Valley - where the Colombian gaffer spent 2021 to 2023 - likely had one of the lowest payrolls in the division.

Forging acceptable results out of meager resources seems like Cabrera’s specialty, but that undersells the genuine quality he extracted from his RGV teams.

If you rank the 80+ clubs that competed in the USL during Cabrera’s run in Edinburg by their expected goal (xG) margin, the 2021 and 2022 Toros were both top-quarter sides. Somewhat surprisingly, RGV’s 2022 season had one of the ten best xG records in the history of the post-pandemic USL.

Those RGV teams were unabashedly defense-first; the 2021 and 2022 sides were historically elite at denying expected goals. Good underlying numbers didn’t equate to especially pretty soccer or assured playoff appearances, either. It was functional stuff according to the eye test.

Most metrics paint the picture of a coach without strong overriding principles. The Toros were a slightly subpar pressing team in the opposing half during each of Cabrera’s three years. They uniformly put up USL-median average passing length. 54% of passes by RGV goalkeepers went long during that run, which would rank tenth-highest in this season’s Championship - almost exactly in the middle.

If there’s a point of interest that unifies Cabrera teams, it comes in terms of a highly-placed and aggressive back line. Last year, for instance, RGV ranked fourth in the league by tackle and interception attempts by defenders. That’s an imperfect proxy for line height, but it betrays the aggressive mien the 56-year-old tries to instill at the back.

Look at the players who broke out under Cabrera, and you’ll start to understand what makes his teams tick at a deeper level. His 2021 roster at H-E-B Park was particularly full of future contributors on the rise, and that’s a credit to the manager’s scouting acumen and developmental nous in equal measure.

Take Emilio Ycaza and James Murphy. You’ll know them as the engines behind the stellar midfields in Charleston and Detroit this season, but both got their first legitimate USL starting runs under Cabrera’s stead. Carter Manley? Cam Riley? Wahab Ackwei? All were studs in central defense during their time with Rio Grande Valley.

Elvis Amoh and Christian Sorto came as a sparingly used pair from Loudoun; Christian Pinzon and Jonas Fjeldberg seemed to come from nowhere before leading charges into the playoffs. Taylor Davila and Baboucarr Njie were developed after stints with MLS second teams; Jonathan Ricketts and Ricky Ruiz shone after making the jump from the Chattanooga Red Wolves in USL League One.

There are a few unifying threads among those players. The defenders tend to be mobile and aggressive. The midfielders were do-it-all No. 8s with range. The forwards - even more traditional ones like Amoh - possessed high levels of agility on the ball; many were used in inverted roles.

When RGV really soared, those aspects came together in the form of a high-pressing 4-2-4.

That pressing shape is seen above. On paper, the Toros are in a 4-2-3-1 here wirh Emilio Ycaza as their No. 10. In practice, both wingers and Ycaza himself come level with the striker to create that 4-2-4 look.

On the other side, you’ve got the four members of the opposing back line trying to build out running up against four RGV pressers. No Toro is overextending; no one is breaking the shape. Each of Cabrera’s forwards is simply fronting a foe and making progressive passing difficult.

Now, the Las Vegas Lights - the opponent in question - don’t get any movement from their midfield to ask questions of the press, but it’s still an exemplary sequence. RGV eventually forces the Lights to try a risky pass downfield, one that’s cut out by Cabrera’s high defensive line.

This isn’t the sort of play that shows up as successful pressure on the stat sheet - the intervention comes around the halfway line. Even so, it’s indicative of what El Paso’s new manager might be looking for without the ball.

Bringing some level of energy in these situations is crucial. A high, aggressive back line paired with a meek press upfield is a recipe for disaster.

That’s the story here, with Rio Grande Valley sitting off in a classic 4-4-2 against Austin Bold. No one steps up to put heat on the opposing carrier or dares to step out of the baseline shape.

Meanwhile, a few clever bits of interchange in the attacking third force a reaction out of the Toros’ defenders. The right back steps up and in, while the center backs scramble behind him.

The two strands eventually combine: it’s too easy to pass through the midfield, the defensive is out of shape, and it all spells trouble for RGV. These are the plays that doomed the Toros in 2023, leading them to post the fourth-most goals allowed in the West.

Unfortunately, it’s the sort of sequence that’s also familiar for El Paso fans this year.

The screenshot here is taken from the recent 2-1 loss against Memphis 901. In this sequence from late in the first half, the guests have advanced up the right side with ease, taking the Locomotive midfield out of the equation. Suddenly, it’s a five-on-four rush against a backtracking El Paso defense.

Defensive issues of this sort have been a problem for the Locomotive since they switched into a back four a weeks back. If Cabrera reprises his back four system, there’s a worry that those same troubles could continue.

Of course, El Paso began the season in a 3-5-2, a shape in which their defensive problems were even worse. The midfield felt unimpactful, and gaps behind the wing backs were manifold.

Cabrera is no stranger to a back three, for better or worse. Though he’s as good a defensive coach as any in the USL, his tendency to tinker and get away from a tried-and-true formula can be problematic. That’s true in terms of pressing intensity and formation alike.

Above, you’re seeing a screenshot of the RGV back three, a shape they used in 31% of their competitive matches in 2023 per Transfermarkt. The example comes from a match against the San Diego Loyal, one of the premier back three teams in the USL at the time. Injuries and availability surely played a role in the strategy, but Cabrera is also trying to fight fire with fire by matching formations.

The example comes from an attacking move where the Toros have advanced into their preferred attacking look, a 3-2-5. There’s a level of fluidity to the shape. Jonathan Ricketts tucks inside from the wing back spot to serve as a center mid by proxy; Taylor Davila advances into the half space and takes up a position like a forward.

By using five attackers and allowing them to flow and interchange, Cabrera matches the Loyal’s defense in numbers and tries to goad them out of position. It’s a clever bit of man management as well, given that Ricketts - a very talented passer and carrier in traffic - is allowed to essentially become a center mid.

This version of the Cabrera system was at its best when it played expansive soccer. Davila could hit switches to speedy wing backs, and there was active movement in the forward line. Once RGV gained a foothold in the final third, defenders could advance upfield to help recycle the ball and compress the pitch against possible counter attacks.

After losing the ball, Cabrera’s back three teams would recover back into a 5-4-1, as evidenced in a high-pressing scenario screenshotted above.

Many of the usual principles remained the same even in the different look. It isn’t spotlighted, but the back line stays high. Central denial was a consistent priority, executed here by way of relatively narrow wing positioning. Note how the right winger and left winger stay tight, hoping to limit angles down the middle.

Still, this was a game RGV ultimately lost while allowing three concessions. The problem? San Diego was given too much space in the channels.

When the Toros compressed their wingers and tried to create traps, they were too easy to play through. The Loyal could work into one-on-ones against the wingbacks, force defensive rotations to the ball side in support, and then cut back into wide open space down the middle.

Consider the first goal allowed in the match.

Right off the bat, you’ll see misalignment in the back line. San Diego is working from the left toward the middle, and two of RGV’s three center backs have stepped up to half-heartedly intervene. No one is at a level.

The central midfielders are in in relatively good position on the face of it, but they’re behind the action. The ball is already past one center mid on the near side and is about to glide past his partner. San Diego is easily working inside into space.

Consider the play from the attacking perspective. The attacking mid on the left - Tumi Moshobane, funnily enough - has hit an easy pass to Alejandro Guido, the other attacking midfielder on the right.

Meanwhile, Ronaldo Damus has a one-on-one against the sole central defender who hasn’t stepped higher upfield. Because of the misalignment, Damus can curl around that center back, making himself available for Guido. RGV is entirely on the back foot, and it’s Moshobane to Guido to Damus for a goal.

There are execution problems here to be sure, but Cabrera regularly put his team into situations where they couldn’t execute. There was plenty of tinkering in 2023, but it felt aimless rather than intentional. Given what we’ve seen from El Paso, there’s a real risk that similar problems arise in the weeks ahead.

To take a step back regarding Wilmer Cabrera’s principles, we’ve got a coach that (probably?) prefers a variant of a 4-4-2 but isn’t scared to break out a back three. He always wants his defensive unit to close down hard and position themselves high up the pitch, though the intensity of upfield pressure can vary.

What does that mean given this El Paso roster? I don’t anticipate massive lineup changes from the outset, and the Locomotive (top-third defensive aggression, mid-table passing length, tons of shape variance) have actually played a lot like a Cabrera team at times in 2024.

Given what Cabrera wants from his wide players - tricky dribbling, some level of pace, self-creation - I have a hard time imagining Eric Calvillo getting many more starts as the right midfielder. He could be an inspired choice as an Ycaza-esque No. 10 or as a classic box-to-box Davila type in the 5-2-3.

I’m curious about the dynamic in the defensive spots. El Paso has a very deep group at the back, and Cabrera will have hard choices to make in the context of his high line. Can Noah Dollenmayer cover enough ground without making mistakes? Is Elijah Martin ever coming back, and is he agile enough to do that job? We’ve seen the downsides already.

Bolu Akinyode is one to watch as well; he’s more defensive than most Cabrera-endorsed RGV center mids. Still, I’d be shocked if Akinyode returned to central defense. When Cabrera had a proper No. 6 like Juan David Cabezas in his team, he often had that player sit deep in the back line to create a proxy back three in build before stepping into the pivot defensively. It’s something to keep tabs on.

No matter what the lineup looks like, this is a sea change for El Paso on a deeper level. Wilmer Cabrera is a veteran of the Texas soccer scene, one who cuts a much different profile than hires like Mark Lowry (33 years old, moved from Jacksonville), John Hutchinson (43 years old, moved from Yokohama), or Brian Clarhaut (37 years old, moved from Sundsvall). There’s a lot to like about younger coaches with possession-first systems; Cabrera gives you something less risky.

Not only is Cabrera more experienced and more ingrained in the USL scene than his predecessors, but he’s also the first manager in club history not to hold the title of “technical director.” Maybe that’s just the by-product of a midseason change. Maybe it’s a signal of a larger reconsideration of the Locomotive’s sporting model. It’s worth noting no matter what.

At the end of the day, the new man in El Paso has about 20 games to take a roster I thought could contend for a title and get it into the postseason. If the past is any indication, Wilmer Cabrera knows how to make a squad perform beyons the sum of his parts thanks to a tight defensive scheme. That’s just what the Locomotive need from their next conductor.