Breaking down tiebreakers and dark horse potential on the Western bubble

The cases for El Paso, New Mexico, Oakland, Monterey, and Rio Grande Valley

With one game to play for every USL Championship team, much of the postseason situation is settled in both conferences. Home field advantage? All but sorted. Top seeds? Locked up. Even the East’s last spot will play out easily between Miami and Detroit.

And then there’s the West.

Five teams are vying for two spots, and wildly complex (dumb, some might say) tiebreakers muddle the picture. El Paso and New Mexico have the inside track, but Oakland can win and get win. Monterey and Rio Grande Valley need both to win and get lucky, but they’re very much alive.

We’ll get into the nitty gritty for each club, but I also want to put the cart before the horse. If these teams make the cut, are they well-positioned to do damage in the playoffs? Let’s dig in, examining the scenarios for Week 32 and assessing the dark horse cases.

El Paso Locomotive

For the Locomotive, it’s easy: win or draw, and you’re in. If El Paso loses at Oakland on Saturday, things get tricky. The Locomotive do not hold the tiebreaker over New Mexico, having earned less points against Western opponents in 2023. However, Monterey would get in over El Paso if both finish even on 44 points; the Californians had a better head-to-head record.

All that said, my model gives Brian Clarhaut and co. a 70% chance of making the cut.

In a playoff scenario, El Paso’s defense is a real asset. Benny Diaz hasn’t missed a minute in net all year. Center backs like Noah Dollenmayer have come up big down the stretch. Excepting a shellacking over the weekend, the Locomotive had only conceded eight goals in eight games between late August and and early October.

You can see why the defense has been good in the clip above. Clarhaut’s 5-3-2 press allows either Denys Kostyshyn or Eric Calvillo to step up from the midfield line and close down against opponents as they build. At the same time, it retains flexibility on the flanks via box-to-box wing backs.

Offense is a different story. Too often, El Paso abdicates the center of the park by allowing their central midfielders to drift ponderously. There have been moments where Petur Knudsen, a late-season signing who’ll miss the season-ender on international duty, has dropped in from forward to solve the problem and link play, but that isn’t enough. Emphasize the center - maybe in a 5-4-1? - and Clarhaut can galvanize a playoff run.

New Mexico United

New Mexico is another “win and you’re in” side that controls their own fate. If they fail to win, the situation becomes bleak. An Oakland win would drop New Mexico out of the playoffs. Oakland also owns the tiebreaker in case of a tie. Eric Quill’s side will also miss the postseason if they finish level with Monterey (worse head-to-head outcomes) or Rio Grande Valley (worse in-conference results). Superior conference results over El Paso at least give New Mexico that tiebreaker.

Still, my model likes their lot with a fairly settled Memphis team visiting the Lab; call it 70% odds once again.

Of all the bubble teams, I like New Mexico the most as a dark horse. Objectively, this is a dumb take. Their goalkeeping situation isn’t the strongest, with emergency addition Andy Thomas putting in good-not-great showings since joining the club a month ago. Up top, Amando Moreno is their best scorer, but he’s a winger by trade, and he’s best with the ball at his feet in a side that has lost the possession battle in five of their last seven games.

It’s all about the press in Albuquerque. Quill’s 4-1-4-1 often takes on a “Christmas tree” shape in which both higher central midfielders fly up next to the striker to deny the center of the park. Zico Bailey, Nicky Hernandez, and especially Sergio Rivas have all excelled in those roles, and they give New Mexico a real mean streak. The press limits opposing build and creates the fast breaks that’ll do well to maximize Moreno in transition; the system makes New Mexico a viable playoff team.

Oakland Roots

The Roots, despite their poor recent form, still can get into the playoffs on their own volition by beating El Paso, guaranteeing a spot with a win. If Oakland loses, it’s game over. A draw adds complexity. The Roots hold a tiebreaker over New Mexico after sweeping their season series, and they edge out Monterey because of head-to-head results as well. Rio Grande Valley, however, would edge Oakland because of the outcomes of their matches.

My model gives this Roots team a 36% shot of getting in.

The Roots’ problem if they do qualify? Their form has fallen off a cliff. Oakland is in the midst of an eight-game winless. Bad luck was the problem initially, but a nosedive in xG trends is emblematic of borderline incompetence on the pitch.

This is a squad that wants the defenders in their 3-4-3 to feel confident stepping up into the tackle or carrying the ball into the midfield, but doing so has left them vulnerable. An ever-changing central midfield - Gomez, Morad, Donasiyano, Nane, Matsoso, etc. all have figured in - rarely seems aligned enough to cover back in support.

Given the sudden loss of coherence and chemistry, I’m bearish on the Roots as a dark horse. Moreover, they don’t have a playoff-proven striker to do the job, with apologies to Johnny Rodriguez and his 12 goals on 24% conversion in 2023. Paul Blanchette has the juice, considering what he did in first-round upsets against El Paso in 2021 and San Diego in 2022, but that’s a big onus to put on his shoulders.

Monterey Bay FC

Frank Yallop and co. need a win and some help. If they draw or lose, their season ends. Three points puts them back into the mix. In terms of tiebreakers, Monterey would qualify over El Paso and New Mexico because of head-to-head wins, but they would lose out to Oakland (head-to-head losses). Rio Grande Valley has the intra-conference results tiebreaker, but those teams can’t finish level in a playoff spot.

All in all, Monterey has a 11% chance to qualify for the postseason.

Monterey is streaky, having won four straight games carrying into September before following that run with a four-match winless stretch. Their defense has fallen off a cliff, with 11 concessions in their last four games. Carlos Herrera (-2.9 goals saved above expected in 2023) doesn’t inspire oodles of confidence in net, either.

The upside? Frank Yallop has shown willingness to experiment. Monterey base their system out of a 5-4-1 that attacks like a 3-2-5, but the recent loss to Birmingham introduced a new shape that varies in and out possession.

With the ball, Monterey attacked in a 3-5-2 where Sam Gleadle played like a left winger, whipping crosses into two strikers. Without the ball, Gleadle sunk into the back line and defended like a left back. It’s something to watch; extra arrows in the quiver are a real plus in the gauntlet of the playoffs.

Rio Grande Valley FC

The Toros are currently in 11th place but could qualify with a win and some lucky breaks. El Paso is unreachable, and a New Mexico draw means elimination. Three points would put Rio Grande Valley level with a losing New Mexico team, and the Toros hold the intra-conference results tiebreaker. If Oakland beats El Paso, Wilmer Cabrera’s team is out, but a draw for the Roots means that the Toros could qualify; they trump Oakland because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Amidst all the complexity, my model gives this team a 13% chance of getting that eighth seed.

Rio Grande Valley have finally settled into a 4-1-4-1 in the press, a shape that activates Taylor Davila and Robert Coronado in the central midfield and opens up the flanks as a knock-on effect. Davila, who I named to my Team of the Year last week, is a player that opens have to clamp down upon in the middle of the pitch, but the Toros haven’t had enough firepower on the flanks to pay off that edge for much of the season.

Jonathan Ricketts has been excellent at right back, and players like Christiano Francois and Ricky Ruiz have shown flashes on the left wing when they’ve been in the team, but those success have been inconsistent. Last weekend, as seen in the clip, Cabrera put Ruiz at left back underneath Francois, and it paid dividends. The Toros took the game to first-place Sacramento, working outside in to great effect before Ruiz went off injured. If he’s healthy and Rio Grande Valley qualifies, there’s potential in this team.