USL X-Factors: Who's most crucial for every team?
Analyzing the make-or-break players for each club's playoff hopes
As the USL Championship moves towards and past the one-third mark, the table becomes ever more important. Teams that are short of the playoff field are increasingly likely to miss out come October.
Which players can take their teams to the right side of the cut line? Who’ll be the unsung hero that earns home field advantage? I pick one representative from every team that can make the difference as the season barrels on.
Quick note: I drop plenty of percentile-based stats here, and all of those numbers are ranked against a player’s positional peers unless otherwise noted.
Birmingham (Ben Reveno, CB)
The Legion are as talented in attack as nearly any team in the USL. Even so, Tommy Soehn's functional 4-2-4 is heavily reliant on the full backs and members of the midfield pivot to link play, supercharge the offense on the overlap, and support one another actively on defensive recoveries.
That's where Reveno comes in. The New England loanee, used at right back, center back, and as a No. 6 this season, must step up for Birmingham. He rates in the 28th percentile for performance in my Goals Above Replacement model, and his pass completion rate and defensive actions per match are both in the bottom third of players in his position groups.
There's the germ of a useful jack-of-all-trades piece in Reveno, but he's not an instinctive enough intervenor to hold down the back line nor a spry enough runner to fill at full back. Finding his fit is going to be key in a thin squad.
Charleston (Arturo Rodriguez, AM)
If you're Charleston, it's hard to imagine 2023 going much better, so who might be the player that can take an even bigger leap going forward? I'd point to Arturo Rodriguez, who has more in the tank with two goals and an assist to his name already. Rodriguez was so successful in North Texas and Phoenix when he operated as a primary ball-mover and creator, but that isn't his role in South Carolina much of the time.
You still get those moments from him, but fine-tuning his late-arriving runs behind Augustine Williams and maybe filling in deeper when Nick Markanich and Tristan Trager are clicking are areas where Rodriguez can step up. He's in the 80th percentile for expected assists and the 86th for key passes on a per 90 basis at the moment, and that creativity can shine in a deeper, initiating role.
Colorado Springs (Matt Mahoney, CB)
One of the best two-way defenders in the USL, Matt Mahoney is crucial to the Switchbacks across the board. His defending is never in question as the centermost or right-sided part of the back three, but Mahoney's offensive contributions may be crucial down the stretch. He's in the 98th percentile for passes amongst central defenders, and he also rates in the 76th percentile for his forward passing rate.
Still, there's room to grow more aggressive in terms of counterpressure and dribbling. Using wide defenders as ball-carrying starters past the press in build is common, and Colorado Springs sorely lacks for central verve. Add extra spark from Mahoney, and you open up space while diversifying the system.
Detroit (Skage Simonsen, FW)
Second on the team with, uh, one goal - a peach of a strike, I should note - Skage Simonsen can be the turnkey for an improved Le Rouge attack. Simonsen sits in the 60th percentile amongst attackers for foul drawing and the for 75th forward passing already for Detroit. Even so, he’s only generated 1.5 expected goals during the entirety of 2023; that’s down a quarter year-over-year when you weight for minutes played.
With the recent rebalancing of the Diop-McCabe-Rodriguez midfield, Simonsen needs to show more aggression in his shot profile to open up the system, and he likewise has to read defenses to meet crosses made available by overreactions to the three-man middle.
El Paso (Liam Rose, CM)
When Liam Rose joined the Locomotive, he was expected to fill the shoes of Richie Ryan as a cerebral No. 6 that could pull the strings from deep. That role, so uniquely defined, limited the Australian. Liberated as a box-to-box No. 8 under Brian Clarhaut, he's crucial in 2023.
Few midfielders are as sensitive in recovering opposing clearances and composed while recycling possession. His off-ball movement regularly clears progressive passing angles in build. Alongside Eric Calvillo, Rose is the slightly staider presence that keeps El Paso resistant to counters and pins opponents deep in their own half, and he must keep that up to power continued success.
Hartford (Kaveh Rad, CB)
Niall Logue is elite on the left side of Hartford's back three, combining strong coverage of the channels and vocal communication with some of the best line-breaking passing you'll find in the lower leagues. Give Hartford an equivalent presence on the right, and you might have a team that can compete.
Enter Kaveh Rad. Preferred in Tab Ramos' best eleven, Rad rates below average for total defensive actions, tackle win rate, and aerial success. His passing tends long and progressive, but without the precision of Logue. As a result, Matt Sheldon has to play deeper on that side and Danny Barrera receives the ball in more crowded spaces. If the ex-Sporting Kansas City man can improve, he'll add a much-needed coherence and balance in Connecticut.
Indy (Roberto Molina, AM)
Indy has hovered on the borderline of playoff qualification all season long, and the brilliance of their central midfield is the reason why. When opponents narrow out against that midfield, however, problems arise. Solomon Asante has tended narrow this season, Douglas Martinez is more striker than winger, and Robby Dambrot's right-footedness leads to gaps on the laps. What to do?
Roberto Molina can be the answer. He debuted well as a left wing back, and he looked equally solid on both flanks while with Las Vegas in the past. Indeed, he was in the 75th percentile for expected assists and the 76th for completed crosses. If Molina forces Indy's foes to respect the team's wide threat, he can give the Eleven an entirely new angle on offense.
Las Vegas (Preston Tabortetaka, AM)
Las Vegas goes long on 77% of their goal kicks and 23% of their total passes, both rates that come second-highest in the league. When they deign to attack with possessive control, the Lights are dependent on Andrew Carleton, one of only two players on the team with double-digit shots created.
That's where Preston Tabortetaka can be big. Preston can fit comfortably on either wing, and his searing pace set him apart from a group of clever but only moderately athletic forwards and midfielders in the squad. In less than 500 minutes, he has a goal and assist already on 98th percentile crossing and top-quarter expected assists and foul drawing. This team is never going to be an offensive titan, but Preston can diversify their threat and contribute nicely even if the system stays long and direct.
Loudoun (Abdoul Zanne, AM)
By now, Kalil ElMedkhar and Panos Armenakas are known quantities across the USL. The pair of attacking midfielders are comfortable on the wing or in the middle; the former can play wing back, while the latter is best as a shadow striker.
Still, the best attacks come in waves, overloading defenses before punching them in the teeth with late-arriving runs or danger from wide. Abdoul Zanne needs to emerge as the man to provide that threat. The 20-year-old Ivorian has only played about 40% of Loudoun’s minutes this season, but he can play anywhere from the No. 10 spot to left back, doing so with panache on the dribble and power in his frame.
Turning the raw skill into concrete contributions for Zanne can put Loudoun back on track as they get healthy again in defense.
Louisville (Oliver Semmle, GK)
When Oliver Semmle signed for Louisville out of Marshall University this offseason, he seemed like the third goalkeeper on the roster behind Kyle Morton and Danny Faundez. Now second in the USL with five clean sheets on an 89th percentile save percentage and 78th percentile Goals Saved Above Average, Semmle is exceeding anyone's wildest dreams.
Given LouCity's use of a high defensive line and the impending exit of Josh Wynder, there are looming questions in the back. Semmle has taken the starting job, but he must keep up his level even while Jordan Scarlett, Oscar Jimenez, or Ramzi Qawasmy take on bigger minutes.
Anyone can do the job with Sean Totsch and Wesley Charpie healthy and clicking, but the rookie needs to come up big when it counts for LouCity to stick at the top of the table yet again.
Memphis (Nighte Pickering, FW)
When you trade a 20-goal scorer, even amidst a drought, there are going to be questions. 901 FC is without a proper striker in the team other than Nighte Pickering, a high-potential teenager. Yes, Rashawn Dally and Luiz Fernando exist, but Stephen Glass clearly sees them as midfield or even defensive options.
So, Pickering. He’s got two goals and two assists in the league so far, but he’s doing it on 58th percentile expected goals per match and a 95th percentile conversion rate. I’ve liked his ability to stalk behind a proper No. 9 and create, but the jury is out as to whether Pickering is capable of leading a line or if he’s simply running hot. Memphis’ continued success may depend on the answer.
Miami (Callum Chapman-Page, CB)
With Callum Chapman-Page healthy and on the pitch, Miami has barely given up a goal per game. He’s a rock on the right side of the back three, and he provides better passing and more active defending than Curtis Thorn at the same spot.
Miami, while defensively stout, is a rather impotent offensive side. They often use a dual-No. 6 midfield with Bolu Akinyode and Dennis Dowouna, a duo boasting respective 21% and 26% forward pass rates. If you’re trying to break a press, that’s no recipe to do so.
Chapman-Page, however, is quick-minded with the ball at his feet and has a keen eye for line-breaking passes. He can hedge to the line and stretch opponents defending with two or three high forwards. This team is at its best when it can activate players like Florian Valot in the half spaces, and the Englishman is able to hit them. What’s more, his presence opens up space for Mark Segbers down the flank. He’s vital to making Miami a balanced side.
Monterey (Sean Okoli, FW)
Down to a 22% conversion rate after peaking in the low 30s, Monterey is down below the playoff cut line after ripping out of the gates. I like Christian Volesky as a hold-up forward, but the last time he scored 10 or more goals, the USL was a third-tier league. Alex Dixon’s scoring will continue at a slower pace, and there are gains to come via Chase Boone and Sam Gleadle, but Frank Yallop needs another outlet.
Sean Okoli, an early-season signing, is as good an option as any to be that piece up top. Okoli scored five times for Orange County on a 76th percentile conversion, and he did it as a super sub rather than a regular starter. A former league MVP, the striker also has a track record of success. He won’t recapture 20-goal form, but consistent contribution as a rotation piece can make the difference for Monterey.
New Mexico (Josh Suggs, FB)
Zach Prince doesn’t hesitate to move between back-three and back-four systems, but his deployment of central defenders at the wing back spots and general conservatism on the flanks limits New Mexico’s potential. I think Austin Yearwood is the bee’s knees, but his best use is as a ball-capable central defender, and that deployment would open up space for Josh Suggs on the left.
Now five years into his time in Albuquerque, Suggs has plenty left to provide. No player on the roster has completed more crosses even though Suggs has only played 53% of available minutes. #5 also comes in third for key passes despite his limited time. Liberating him to provide width to match Harry Swartz on the right can unlock this team’s attack.
Oakland (Memo Diaz, FB)
The Roots have leaned into an unbalanced shape in 2023 with Edgardo Rito playing deeper on the right ahead of Bryan Tamacas, who plays as a more conventional sort of full back. On the other side, Memo Diaz is still expected to cover from end to end and pitch in across all phases of play.
Albeit with the support of star defender Danny Barbir on the left side of the back three, Diaz has a lot on his plate. Between a 73rd percentile tackle win rate, 67th percentile aerial wins, and top-quarter expected assists and expected goals, he’s meeting any and all challenges.
You can argue that Oakland isn’t dependent on Diaz as the one player that directly scores or prevents goals, but his ability to pitch in everywhere is crucial to the club’s execution of Noah Delgado’s system.
Orange County (Cody Cropper, GK)
Once a feted US national team prospect, Cody Cropper ranks in the 5th percentile for goals saved above average in his debut campaign in the USL. No team has underperformed their defensive expectations more than Orange County because of goalkeeping, and Cropper must step up in that area.
Still, the problems run deeper. The former Southampton man is also in the 5th percentile for long pass completion even though he goes long more than two-thirds of his peers. For a side that was rebuilt this offseason to possess the ball more comfortably at the back, that’s a problem. Orange County has started poorly, but the playoffs aren’t out of question, and a step up from Cody Cropper can help get them there.
Phoenix (Emil Cuello, AM)
Oft-injured so far this year, Emil Cuello can be the key linking piece that Rising need in the final third. Manuel Arteaga has finished at a better clip than expected, and there’s a good baseline in build-up by way of Carlos Harvey, but Fede Varela and Danny Trejo have been either poor or misapplied in between them.
Not to stray, but what’s up with Varela? He’s missed some time, but he only has created seven shots this year, and a player that was feted as a world-class No. 10 in Phoenix circles only has a fine-not-great 75% passing accuracy in the opposing half.
Back to the point. Cuello generated 100th percentile expected assists per match in 2021 and finished in the 85th percentile last year. Those star-level numbers came in a spate of substitute appearances in sides with very different tactics than Phoenix. Still, Cuello fits the mold of what this Rising team needs to take a step up from the bubble while improving on bottom-third chance generation.
Pittsburgh (Edward Kizza, FW)
The Riverhounds are a defensive juggernaut, and that isn’t going to change. Across various lineups and behind disparate midfield alignments, Bob Lilley’s back lines are dynamite. Still, there’s room to grow for a good-not great attack that’s 12th in the expected goals table.
Albert Dikwa is bagging goals for fun up top, but Edward Kizza can open up more diverse offense in the Steel City. Often used as a bruising No. 10 behind a main striker, Kizza’s hold-up play and aggressive counterpressure are designed in a laboratory to keep Pittsburgh in the attacking zone. When he finds the ball, the forward draws opponents in and opens up the flanks.
Oh, and Kizza has two goals on 94th percentile expected goals per shot this season. He’s never wasteful, and he’ll be an important piece for Pittsburgh during the doldrums of a grinding, Open Cup-busied schedule.
Rio Grande Valley (Christian Pinzon, FW)
With a cumulative 6% conversion rate this season, the Toros are the second-worst finishing team in the USL. Part of the malaise comes from a reliance on natural wingers in the forward line in lieu of a proper striker that could stretch the back shoulder of a defense. Part of it comes down to a lack of bite from the wingers themselves, and Christian Pinzon can solve the problem.
Pinzon, a breakout star after joining Rio Grande Valley on loan last season, hasn’t played in 2023 for no clear reason. When he did get minutes, #10 put up seven goals and three assists on 95th percentile expected goal production. He’s a weapon with the ball at his feet in transition and settled in the final third, and he can give the Toros the punch they so desperately need.
Sacramento (Nick Ross, CM)
When Mark Briggs has needed to fill a hole this year, he’s usually turned to Nick Ross to do the job. A veteran of Scottish football and the El Paso Locomotive, Ross is best suited to a possessive No. 8 role, but he’s been used as a narrow winger and deep No. 6 at times this year.
The most admirable part of the Sacramento system is its interchangeability and constant rotation, and Ross’ skillset is suited to that aspect in a different way than some of his teammates. Luis Felipe is a star with the ball at his feet and a good work rate in recovery. Arnold Lopez is a pure destroyer.
Ross is clean when he intervenes (87th percentile defensive actions per foul) and poised in possession (84th percentile fouls drawn) but offers less spark and less active defending than his peers. He still has a role to play, and finding it can only boost the best team in the USL.
San Antonio (Shannon Gomez, FB)
In a team laden with show-stopping center backs that can range across the pitch and put in crunching tackles, Shannon Gomez can do under the radar for his immense value. He’s quite fast and applies that speed to press high against build before recovering into his own half as needed. Still, every step the Trinidadian international takes is highly measured, and his presence steels a San Antonio team that’s seen a revolving door of midfielders and defenders take the stage in 2023.
Gomez’s underlying numbers are highly unremarkable. He’s in the 16th percentile for passing volume in a given match, and his defensive actions only rank in the 32nd percentile. That said, he’s a 98th percentile forward passer, and San Antonio is 0.54 goals better per match with him on the field.
If you’ve got Gomez’s steady hand at wing back, you have room to experiment up top and execute on a chaotic, bruising Alen Marcina system. He’s crucial.
San Diego (Charlie Adams, CM)
Traditionally one of the elite offenses in the USL, the Loyal rank just 11th in expected goals this season. You can point to a number of factors in that relative tepidness, but I have my eye on their creation from the central midfield. Collin Martin is an exceptional No. 6, but he’s not a string-puller and ranks in the 55th percentile for forward passing. Joe Corona is a better ball-carrier and sits in the 64th percentile in that same category, but his baseline position is higher up the pitch.
The clear answer? Charlie Adams. Amidst injury and squad rotation, the team captain has played in less than half of San Diego’s minutes this season. When he does play, Adams is a crucial line-breaking cog. He flits into the half spaces to ping diagonal balls or thread passes into showing forwards, and his return to consistent starting status may just make the Loyal system flow yet again.
Tampa Bay (Freddy Kleemann, CB)
You can praise the Rowdies for numerous reasons, but the coherence and responsibility innate to their defensive system is chief among them. Starting with Charlie Dennis as the No. 10 beneath the striker in the press alongside speedy, responsive wingers like Ryan Spaulding and Dayonn Harris, Tampa Bay is rock solid. The front line is supported by coverage by destroyers like Jordan Doherty, but what happens when the entire midfield is beaten?
In a name, Freddy Kleemann. The preferred center back next to the statuesque Forrest Lasso, Kleemann has a long stride and strong frame that he uses to clatter into any player trying to receive between the lines. His interventions out of the back four are the best backstop the Rowdies have. Maintaining an energetic press over the course of a 34-game slate is nigh impossible, and Kleemann’s ability to play centerfield at the base of the system is vital.
Tulsa (Blaine Ferri, CM)
With the Rodrigo Da Costa trade, Tulsa needs a new No. 10 to emerge, and Blaine Ferri is that player. Ferri isn’t a do-it-all ball carrier or domineering presence like his predecessor, preferring quicker distribution while also contributing more in defense. Still, that ability to feed threats like Marcus Epps out wide and steel a sometimes-feeble midfield could be key.
For Ferri to really embody the X-factor label, he does need to improve as a creator. In a supporting role as a No. 8, he has single-digit key passes this year. That number is limited by his deployment to date, but taking the next step will turn Tulsa into a fully-actualized threat given their newfound quality up top through Phillip Goodrum.