USL Division One: which clubs could be in, and can it succeed?

On the USL's bold plan to compete with MLS at the D1 level

Paul Tenorio of The Athletic dropped a bomb this morning, reporting on the USL’s intention to create a new first-division men’s professional league composed of 12 to 14 existing clubs. Featuring an exclusive interview with league president Paul McDonough, the report noted that the USL has already spoken with US Soccer about the plan. There are intentions for a promotion and relegation system between the new first tier, the remains of the USL Championship, and USL League One, though it wouldn’t be implemented immediately.

It’s a shocking bit of news, but the league has long hinted at higher aspirations. Unlike the NASL’s wanton D1 bid in years past, the USL has slowly built up an organization with nearly 40 independent professional clubs. The pace of teams folding has declined in recent years, while the number of teams with self-owned, soccer-specific stadiums has increased.

In the report, seven teams were posited by The Athletic as potential founding members of a D1 USL competition. Those include Louisville City, Indy Eleven, the Sacramento Republic, Phoenix Rising, New Mexico United, the Colorado Springs Switchbacks, and the Las Vegas Lights.

It’s a strong base to build upon, but what would it take to start a rules-compliant Division One league? The US Soccer Federation lays out a few requirements in its Pro League Standards:

1. 12 member clubs at launch; 14 by the third year of operation

2. 75% of clubs located in a metro area with a population exceeding 1,000,000

3. The capacity of each club’s stadium must exceed 15,000

4. Actively operating in at least three time zones

The first two pre-conditions won’t trouble the USL, but the stadium requirements – and even the population requirements, league composition notwithstanding – are thornier.

As it stands, just two clubs in the USL play at sufficiently large stadiums. Those teams, Miami FC and the Birmingham Legion, are renters at local college football venues that cut against the league’s intention to push forward with self-owned, soccer-specific facilities. Even the USL’s premier organizations in Louisville and Colorado Springs would need to undertake considerable stadium expansion projects to get over the line.

Still, there’s a potential workaround. In the past, when the USL was rising from Division Three status up to Division Two, it was granted a waiver by the federation despite a failure to meet the stadium condition. Such a solve would be temporary, but it could give the USL wiggle room into the 2030s in a best-case scenario.

Assuming that the markets named in the report – most of which have drawn interest from potential MLS bidders in the past – are all included, who else makes the cut? It’s safe to assume that teams like the Oakland Roots, Detroit City FC, and Miami FC with stadium projects in the works would make the cut. All three markets meet that 1,000,000 population floor to boot.

The Tampa Bay Rowdies, long one of the USL’s best-run teams and a darling of the organization’s Tampa-based headquarters, seem like a lock. Rhode Island FC, who just made a title-game appearance and are opening a new stadium in 2025, would get a USL D1 beyond that all-important mark of 12 clubs.

Such a core would put the USL in the necessary number of time zones, provide 83% coverage in large metro areas, and prioritize teams with high-level operations and solid stadium plans in place. While a 22-game home-and-away schedule for such a division might seem scanty, it would be bolstered by participation in the regional USL Jagermeister Cup.

When could such a D1 league come together? The USL is targeting the years after the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted in the United States alongside Canada and Mexico. Clearly, the USL is banking on a boost in soccer fandom after that tournament.

Not coincidentally, the league’s television deal with CBS (and paired contract with ESPN) lasts through 2027, just in time for a moneyed renegotiation after the league split. Providing a Division One product, at least in the USL’s mind, would surely draw more interest, greater revenues, and a higher level of visibility from broadcast partners.

Still, a major question lingers: is the juice of a top-down reorganization worth the squeeze? “Division One” itself is a meaningless phrase, a regulatory title that signifies nothing to a family of four that’s looking for some Saturday night entertainment. Sure, divisional reclassification might appeal to a diehard subset, but it won’t move the needle without a Herculean marketing push.

American sports fans are conditioned to expect the best of the best; the idea of the “minor leagues” is associated with gimmicky theme nights and the development of young players. MLS – literally Major League Soccer – has decades’ worth of a first-mover branding advantage.

What, then, can set the USL apart? The only answer is promotion and relegation. If the new three-tier system proposed by McDonough comes through, it has the potential to heighten competition throughout the pyramid, drawing fans who hadn’t previously paid the USL any mind.

Implementing pro-rel is a hornet’s nest in its own right. Naturally, clubs rising up and down between leagues will lead to imbalances relative to the Pro League Standards. Within a year or two, there could be res trouble in terms of market size and time zone compliance across levels. The infrastructure simply isn’t there for a USL pyramid to meet US Soccer’s bylaws without an endless barrage of waivers.

Unless the mere idea of pro-rel suddenly brings in millions of broadcasting and advertising dollars, there’s also the issue of financial viability. Ostensibly successful organizations like Memphis 901 and the Northern Colorado Hailstorm – the inaugural USL Jagermeister Cup champions! – fold every single season. At its heart, owning a USL team has always been a money-losing proposition; clubs like Detroit City, rabid fanbase and all, lose millions of dollars a year. Forcing modestly wealthy ownership groups to invest heavily in roster and stadium upgrades post-promotion will only stress the coffers to a greater degree.

Behind the scenes, USL HQ has surely planned for all of these eventualities. Time and again, the league has made smart decisions to promote gradual growth, and many of its clubs are on a path to financial surety. Still, even with a solid set of 12 clubs in mind as the founding core of a USL D1, the path to a successful promotion system seems rocky. In a vacuum, the tripartite league split is exciting, but there are more questions on the table than trustworthy answers.