The Back Four: Worth the wait?
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Tulsa, Loudoun, Sacramento, Charlotte, and Northern Colorado
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m changing formation to talk about five things that caught my eye this week. Want an analysis of every USL Championship team? Check out this week’s free-to-read Backheeled Power Ranking! I’ll also be on Backheeled with an Open Cup recap this Thursday.
With that said, let’s get to it.
Tulsa tumult?
This time last year, Nate Worth was less than a month removed from his first professional deal. A product of the New York Red Bulls Academy, Worth debuted at age 15 and quickly emerged as a stalwart in the United States youth setup. Multiple USL suitors came calling, and the teenager chose Tulsa because of the immediate on-the-field opportunity and the promise of cooperation when Europe came calling.
By season’s end, Worth had emerged as a nailed-on starter for a team in the thick of the playoff race. He earned nearly 1,000 minutes of time, completing 86% of his passing attempts as a No. 8 in the heart of Blair Gavin’s possessive 3-5-2. Worth shone because of the maturity of his reads, the one-step-ahead incision of his distribution, and a tireless defensive work rate.
Now, Worth is seemingly frozen out with Tulsa undergoing a top-to-bottom organizational overhaul. What’s changing in Oklahoma?
The club struck quickly this winter, signing four all-USL caliber creators (Justin Portillo, Arthur Rogers, Charlie Adams, and Jeremy Kelly) by the first week of January. Still, it was clear that change was afoot. Club President Sam Doerr left for a role at league headquarters in November after building the first-pass roster. On January 8th, Head Coach Blair Gavin was transferred to the New England Revolution.
With the club’s management in flux, Tulsa committed to a new vision. Longtime Louisville assistant and academy guru Mario Sanchez was hired to replace Gavin. Less visibly but of equal import, Tulsa announced a partnership with Serie C’s Triestina just two days later. Per that press release, it was stated that “the sporting department of Triestina, led by Alex Menta, [would] actively advise FC Tulsa on scouting and recruitment initiatives.”
That was putting it mildly. Menta, who is still based in Italy, is listed as the General Manager and Sporting Director on the club’s directory. Multiple sources indicate that he is the driving force between the club’s personnel moves. 33 years old, Menta was hired as Venezia’s director of analytics in 2019 and moved to Triestina last season when they were purchased by an American owner. He’s now responsible for multiple soccer operations across the globe.
With their unique model in place, Tulsa allowed critical signings like the aforementioned Jeremy Kelly and Charlie Adams to walk without ever playing a minute. 10 new faces replaced them, all of whom were announced with less than a month to go before opening kick.
The late-breaking signings came from obvious places. Harvey St. Clair was formerly with Venezia, and Aaron Kacinari is on loan from Triestina. Alexis Souahy was a LouCity stalwart, and new loanee Sebastian Sanchez is literally the coach’s son on top of being a Louisville academy product. Alex Menta is a West Chester native; Boubacar Diallo and Stefan Stojanovic played in the Philadelphia Union system.
As his club shuffled the deck chairs, Nate Worth was training at places like Club Brugge and Stuttgart. Multiple sources have confirmed interest from organizations across the Netherlands and Germany, with nearly a dozen European suitors having shown interest.
Rather than double down on their burgeoning star, Tulsa’s new regime has stifled the 17-year-old’s development and likely hurt his market value. Worth has just 24 minutes played across three appearances in 2024 despite being fully fit and emerging as a legitimate starting-level player in 2023. He didn’t travel with the team or make the 18-man lineup over the weekend in a draw at Sacramento.
Sources suggest that the club is dragging their feet on a potential intra-USL loan deal. Interest abounds for a midfielder of Worth’s caliber as a scanner and tempo-setter, but there have been financial hang-ups. Furthermore, Tulsa refused to grant Worth leave for the recent US U-19 camp despite the lack of game time. By contrast, Memphis 901 let starting striker Nighte Pickering earn that valuable international experience.
Orange County maximized their returns on Kobi Henry and Korede Osundina by playing them. Louisville did the same thing with Josh Wynder and Jonathan Gomez. Instead of treading that path, FC Tulsa is sidelining the most promising midfield prospect in USL history in the name of an idiosyncratic re-tool.
Time will tell what becomes of the new project in Oklahoma. This group obviously isn’t without their merits. Menta helped get Venezia to Serie A, and Sanchez has a long track record across men’s and women’s soccer. I’ve been happy with this team by the eye test and literally highlighted Arthur Rogers’ excellence last week.
It’s too early to make judgements on the field, but Tulsa sits at a -0.50 expected goals margin per 90 minutes this season. That’s a bottom five clip in the USL even with the positive sings as a counterweight. Progress may well come, but in the meantime, FC Tulsa is fumbling their golden goose in a competitive, developmental, and financial sense.
Skundrich or die trying
In a blown-lead loss to Birmingham the Sunday before last, Loudoun United did what they’ve done all too often: start really well and fade when the going gets tough. It’s been their arc within many a season. For years, Loudoun has been close but hasn’t had the legs to see out their successes to the end.
2024, by and large, has broken that trend. Ryan Martin and the still-new Attain ownership group put together a steely roster with plenty of consistency and experience in tow. This unit is a top-ten USL side with a +0.13 xG margin, and their defense ranks fourth in allowing just 1.0 xG per match.
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Although the attack is less glossy by the numbers, Loudoun have shown themselves to be potent on more than a few occasions this year. The Birmingham match was instructive as to this club’s best and worst in possession.
When Loudoun’s clicking, as in the first half, they’re able to activate Kwame Awuah (two assists, 71st percentile forward pass share in 2024) as a dynamo on the overlap from left back. Meanwhile, Zach Ryan (three goals, 64th percentile xA) stalks in the No. 9 spot, linking play and choosing his spots to poach. You can see that reflected in the heat map above, particularly in that left-sided leaning.
At their least coherent, Loudoun aren’t able to initiate their short passing game in the first place. This team ranks in the bottom third of the league by long pass share from outfield players and on goal kicks, but there have been moments - see the second half against the Legion - where that approach hasn’t born fruit. Often, the root of the issue comes in attack, where a still-young core can’t find room to break lines.
That exception to the rule of offensive efficacy made Martin’s lineup changes against Memphis this past Saturday all the more clever. Rather than go full bore in his attacking line, Martin used Drew Skundrich, who’s been a first-choice No. 6 this year and played right back in Colorado Springs, as his left winger.
You see the impact above. The first example highlights Loudoun’s offensive variability. While Awuah’s overlaps were crucial, the true 4-4-2 that Martin ran with also allowed for wide runs out of the forward line that could pay off Skundrich’s positioning. Christiano Francois, mostly used as a winger this year because of his natural speed, was a menace in that context, regularly making leftward runs over the top of #12.
It’s Skundrich himself making the burst in the second example. The Loudoun man wins a header against an opposing goal kick, loops wide of a centrally-seated Francois, and gets to the edge of the box to serve in a cross. This was the beauty of the deployment; Skundrich has verve and versatility that aren’t always as obvious in the pivot.
Skundrich’s average touch came 6.6 yards deeper than Abdellatif Aboukoura’s equivalent on the right. He more than doubled Aboukoura’s number of pass attempts as well, illustrating how left-sided the system was by design.
Maybe this isn’t the only path forward for the remainder of 2024, but Skundrich-on-the-wing is going to be an incredibly useful arrow in Ryan Martin’s quiver going forward. Loudoun currently sits in seventh place in the East and needs all the help they can get to stay above the playoff cut line, and these sorts of innovations can get them there.
Trevor Amann, the mover
To the untrained eye, the Sacramento Republic seem nigh unchanged in 2024. 10 of 11 starters in most given weeks have been returners, the club is near the top of the West, and the defense is conceding less than a goal per game. It’s all familiar for a club that’s been a defense-first juggernaut with a consistent core since 2022.
There’s been a big change nonetheless, one that’s revolutionized the Republic’s attack: adding Trevor Amann at striker.
So far this year, Amann has four goals. Among strikers with three starts or more, he ranks in the top five with 0.77 goals per 90 minutes. The former Northern Colorado man is finishing at an elite 27% clip, and he’s also contributing physically. Amann is winning 6.9 duels per match this year at a 46% rate; Wilson Harris, by comparison, is at 2.8 wins a match.
Finishing from all angles in all scenarios is the 25-year-old’s most obvious skill. Still, there’s depth to the striker’s game. Trevor Amann has so improved the Republic because of his movement at the No. 9 spot.
Sacramento typically runs a 3-4-3 shape, but that often shifts to become a 3-2-5 in the attacking phase. The wing backs and wingers within Mark Briggs’ system are allowed to interchange freely, but you’re equally likely to see those same wingers trading places with a center mid. It’s a system defined by flow, and Amann’s gravity up top has made the set-up that much more lethal in 2024.
Those principles are in action above. Amann drops in for a touch, and he draws the eyeballs of both opposing central defenders in the act. Cristian Parano, an attacking mid, then makes a run beyond #7 into the left channel to try and catch those defenders out.
That run can’t reasonably be met with a pass, but it forces the defense to step back. Amann has time to breath and switches the point of attack into space on the right, where wing back Jack Gurr advances. The motion continues upfield as Gurr squares up a cross: Parano comes ball-side, which frees Amann to go hard to the far post to force a sloppy punch away.
For a 15-second sequence, that’s a heck of a lot of movement. Trevor Amann is driving every bit of it.
Here, Sacramento is on a shorthanded break in contrast to the more settled scenario from earlier. As Russell Cicerone carries forward on the dribble, Amann wisely carves into the gap between the two right-sided defenders. In doing so, he draws both of their attention with the hope of parting the opposing back line like the Red Sea.
It doesn’t quite come off because of a good read by Tulu on the other side, but it’s the sort of unselfish and intelligent running that defines #7’s style of play.
What’s the knock-on effect of Amann without the ball? His Sacramento teammates are finding more opportunities. Jack Gurr and Rodrigo Lopez are each putting up half a shot more per game. Russell Cicerone is up to 2.9 attempts a match to 2.1, even outshooting Amann in the process.
The scary part? The Republic don’t feel like they’re at full tilt, as this weekend’s draw illustrated. Even so, Trevor Amann is showing why he was a marquee addition over the winter and how he’ll continue to be a star throughout the rest of the campaign.
Packing it in
The Charlotte Independence were a title finalist in USL League One last year. They’ve won two of their first three matches this time around, and they’ve got a positive goal difference in the process. All good, yeah?
If you’ve seen a Charlotte game, you know that there’s been tumult and inconsistency roiling underneath the peaceful and assured exterior.
This club built its roster in a considerate manner if you’re being kind and a belated, seat-of-your-pants fashion if you’re a bit more pessimistic. The result is hard to argue with on paper, considering the additions in isolation. Hugh Roberts is a club legend built to anchor the middle of a back three. Anthony Sorenson impressed at full back in MLS NEXT Pro and fits Mike Jeffries’ style. Forwards like Kharlton Belmar and Juan Obregon can at least do a job.
There’s plenty of time to get right, but the Independence have struggled at both ends this year in spite of the solid results. For my taste, the root of the issue begins in defense.
Above, you see Charlotte in the 3-4-3 they’ve preferred so far. Immediately, winger Tresor Mbuyu is beaten to start the sequence, forcing the two members of the pivot to slide over as the opposing striker breaks their lines.
It’s incessant action in dangerous spaces from there. An admittedly slick Spokane team continues to probe, slicing two more players between the back five and midfield four. Both get touches. The Velocity work outside-in and inside-out, almost entirely unperturbed, eventually ending up with a very nice through ball into the right channel that’s hastily deflected away.
These sorts of plays have been par for the course throughout 2024. Greenville completed 21 passes into the Independence box from zones 13, 14, and 15 this weekend. The Triumph ultimately won the xG battle 2.7 to 0.7 despite losing the match in the end.
It was a similar story against Spokane, as evidenced above. The Velocity only tried seven such passes when they met Charlotte, but they went 100% on those attempts. Sum all the meek outings together, and the Independence are allowing 2.1 xG against per game - dead last in League One.
If there’s a secret to the success in spite of the bad numbers, it’s Austin Pack in net. Back in the city where he attended college, Pack has emerged as an elite League One stopper.
Last year, Pack saved 2.8 goals above expected to lead all regular starters. This year, he’s already at 1.4 in that same category and is absolutely carrying this side. Whether Pack’s performance is sustainable is an open question. He’ll be good for certain, but this good?
In the meantime, Pack is buying the Independence time to figure out their squad and possibly re-think their approach. There’s a lot to like here! Luis Alvarez is taking the leap as a creator, Noah Pilato will be a valuable bit of balance in the midfield, and the new faces are only going to get more comfortable with one another. Still, Jeffries can’t rest on his laurels if things stay shaky for long.
Halting Hailstorm
Last season, Northern Colorado was a wagon powered by Arthur Rogers’ creation from the back and the excellence of Trevor Amann. Those two stole the show and earned moves to the USL Championship, but there was a crucial third leg to the attacking stool: Bruno Rendon.
Rendon, a 23-year-old who got his start in the NPSL, was a real discovery by Eamon Zayed and co. last year, one who returned five goals and three assists from a hyper-attacking right wing position. He was a volume shooter and had a natural spatial given and take with Rogers that powered this club.
The success hasn’t quite come in the same way in 2024.
Through three games, the Hailstorm have one point, and their talismanic right-sider has no goal contributions. Indeed, Rendon has just two successful passes into the box in his last two games; he’s down from 0.8 chances created per 90 to zero in 2024.
Rendon has mostly played at right back, and he’s still in the 95th percentile for shots per match at that position. Even so, his expected goals are down 40% year-over-year. It’s a matter of similar quantity but greatly decreased quality.
Rendon had four shot attempts in his last two games, all of which are clipped above. You’ll notice a very obvious trend: the 6’2” target is a headed shooter on the end of a set piece each and every time. Set pieces are dangerous to be sure, and the best teams weaponize them in a meaningful way, but headers in a crowded box aren’t exactly high-quality chances for someone as explosive as #27.
At their best last season, the Hailstorm knew how to weaponize a mix of passing lengths and spread the love. Billy King, Noah Powder, and others ate up in the half spaces. This year, that hasn’t been true, and they’ve only completed three passes into the box from zone 14 through three games to boot.
Northern Colorado’s average pass length is up 12% in 2024. Though Lalo Delgado is playing short more often, the Hailstorm’s outfield players have gone long 18.5% of the time, the second-highest clip in League One. Without Rogers and Amann lurking, defenses aren’t as spread out and are less likely to allow penetration. This team can’t flow, and Rendon is forced to stay deeper as a result.
The change in personnel in defense has mattered, too. Leo Folla and Rob Cornwall were initiators from deep last season, but both are gone in 2024. Their replacements, Johnny Fenwick and David Garcia, have track records as lump-it-long center backs by comparison. There’ll be an adjustment period no matter what, even though the left-footed Fenwick has looked good and Garcia has title-winning bona fides.
I ultimately trust the talent on this team and the vision of Eamon Zayed, but the struggles to activate Bruno Rendon so far are a usual frame to understand Northern Colorado’s offensive regression. League One has taken a step up this season, and the Hailstorm need to keep tweaking to keep up.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Want the goods on Phoenix’s new shape? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
Some other stray items…
Colton Coreschi has been killing the game for Pittsburgh Soccer Now this year. Love seeing him on the Riverhounds beat.
Ryan Allen, my trusty co-host on The USL Show, is on Substack! Check out his page for fun and unique USL stats and betting insights.
I feel like I pitch Vamos Morados every few weeks, but it’s for good reason: Benton Newman does wonderful stuff covering LouCity. Check out his perspective on that massive Charleston game from last week here.
While I’m on the topic of Charlotte this week: Cincy is the only Queen City.
See you later this week!