The Back Four: Week 26 breakdowns
The Back Four: Week 26 breakdowns
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Pittsburgh, Greenville, Omaha, and Colorado Springs
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
Now, let’s get to it.
Pittsburgh’s defense-driven playoff hopes
Since a 1-0 loss to Monterey on July 6th, the Pittsburgh Riverhounds have conceded 0.56 goals per game and 1.06 expected goals per game. Both numbers are tops in the USL. Pittsburgh is undefeated since then, knocking at the doors of the playoff field with eight games to go.
The Riverhounds’ defense has been solid all year, in truth, having allowed just 25 goals to tie for the conference lead. When Pittsburgh has struggled, it’s been an attacking issue. What makes the defense special, and how is it carrying this club?
This year, Bob Lilley has increasingly preferred to press in a 3-4-3 as opposed to the 3-5-2 that took Pittsburgh to the Players’ Shield in 2023. Having lost Albert Dikwa, adding another forward to the mix could come off as unwise, but that’s not how the shift has borne out in practice. Instead, midfielder Robbie Mertz typically operates as either the right winger or pseudo-false No. 9 within that “three forward” pressing formation.
The shape is seen above; you’ll note a highlighted central midfielder pushing forward to match the opposition as they build out. That’s par for the course for Pittsburgh, both in the high press and while counterpressing after offensive turnovers. Meanwhile, you’ll also note the dual Jackson Walti/Bradley Sample pivot (circled in yellow) underpinning the shape. The Riverhounds always have a layer of protection behind the high press, making passes down the middle quite risky.
The result? Pittsburgh’s opponents are forced to play long against their will. Teams coming up against the ‘Hounds play passes with an average distance of 9.1 yards this year, third-longest in the USL. Moreover, foes underperform their expected completion percentage by nearly 2%. That mark is second in the league behind Charleston’s equally elite defense. The press forces opponents to go longer and to become less accurate.
Pressing high is Pittsburgh’s comfort zone. Possession isn’t a priority (and the Riverhounds hold 46% of it on average) but territorially control - keeping an opponent deep, preventing them from passing upfield with composure - is everything. Lilley’s directions for his three central defenders promotes fruitful cycles of pressure.
The effect is offensive (i.e., possession-based) as much as it’s defensive. Pittsburgh’s distribution is highly direct and vertical. The goal is to advance the ball into the opposing half and - you guessed it - pin the rival team back.
To that end, the Riverhounds’ center backs are all wont to play long balls in possession. Patrick Hogan, Sean Suber, and Luke Biasi hit more forward passes than your average defender, and Illal Osumanu is roughly at par. There’s a sense of verticality as Pittsburgh builds. They won’t risk turnovers at the back and prefer to hoof the ball in hopes of a high recovery.
Eric Dick supports that effort with his contributions from net. Dick, of course, has been one of the league’s best shot stoppers in 2024, ranking fifth amongst starting goalkeepers with 5.2 goals saved above expected. His passing fits the system as well; his average pass travels almost 42 yards, the fourth-highest mark of any goalie.
So we know two things: (1) Pittsburgh plays long passes to pin opponents back and (2) Pittsburgh presses hard when their opponent is pinned. What happens, however, when the press is broken?
The numbers also tell a story there. Going back to the chart, you’ll note that Hogan is much, much more aggressive than his partners in terms of defensive actions. Hogan entered the week as the second-most active intervenor in the USL with more than 9.0 defensive actions per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, his wider partners in the Riverhounds’ back three tended to be more staid.
In some ways, the distinction is structural. The Riverhounds’ forwards close down an arced angles; they come from outside in to funnel their foes down the middle. Support from elevated wing backs in the 3-4-3 press also discourages passes down the sidelines. Thus, you’re looking at straight-down-the-center long balls that usually end up in Hogan’s zone.
It isn’t always perfect, as we saw against Indy (and in the screen grab above). There, an aggressive reaction from Hogan against a penetrator between the lines led to a red card in the opening five minutes. The problem began higher upfield: the Eleven were able to possess in the half space and pick out a pass. Pivot support was lacking, and Hogan was in a bad position before he even considered the risky tackle.
Still, such breakdowns are a rarity. Pittsburgh circled the wagons for a draw while down a man against Indy (see an excellent Pittsburgh Soccer Now recap) by sticking to their principles. Those tenets continue to give the Riverhounds a real shot at the playoffs.
Triumph tribulations
Greenville is down bad. After a 1-0 loss to Charlotte last Friday - a game where Greenville could’ve made their own fate - the Triumph are out of the Jagermeister Cup, largely thanks to insufficient goalscoring. What began as a first-place romp in League One play now sees Rick Wright’s team in fifth place with chasers hot on their tail.
The playoffs are a given (my model still puts them as a 100% lock, albeit as the fifth-place finisher) but progression feels unlikely unless Greenville finds their level anew. What’s going wrong?
The undeniable issue comes in the attacking half. Greenville started 2024 on fire, defined by a hydra-like attack that could beat you from any area of the pitch. Lyam MacKinnon began the year in Golden Boot form, but his excellence was only possible because of Leo Castro’s ability to create space and addle defenses as the Triumph’s No. 9. Meanwhile, supporting options like Ben Zakowski - a keen, fairly two-footed option on the right - brought secondary scoring in droves.
We’ve seen the key attackers run cooler and cooler as the months have worn on. A recent injury for Castro certainly didn’t help, but the downward trajectory was already creeping into place as spring turned to summer. Now, Greenville is looking at a stretch where they haven’t even surpassed 1.3 xG in a game since June.
After rolling with somewhat complex back four-turned-back three setups early on, the Triumph have mostly settled into an offensive 4-1-4-1 in recent vintage. MacKinnon will start on the left wing, Sebastian Velasquez and Evan Lee will comprise the central duo, and you’ll get either Zakowski or the more expansive Hayden Anderson on the right.
In a draw against Richmond two weeks back, the Triumph came back for a one-all scoreline in their best xG showing of the downturn era. That 1.2 xG performance relied on the central axis. Velasquez got a goal and created three further chances; Lee’s ability to pick up loose balls and keep Greenville in the attacking zone was paramount.
What didn’t work was the wide play. Mackinnon got four shots but mostly felt restricted in wide spaces outside of the 18-yard-box. Zakowski got a modest 29 touches despite his tendency to tuck inside. Richmond was able to close down hard against those two in the channels with the awareness that striker Rodrigo Robles (who’s only got three shots in his last three starts) couldn’t offer Castro-level movement in behind.
August has been marked by those sorts of difficulties in spades, and they’ve been particularly frustrating in consecutive Jagermeister defeats against the Charlotte Independence. Lacking movement, excessive back-to-goal receptions, and the pursuant consequences have been constant.
Both Charlotte games have seen Anderson start on the right wing. He’s one for eight on crosses without a single chance created in those starts. Anderson is less likely than Zakowski to try and dribble inside. Instead, his strength comes from the speed to meet the end of switches and a solid ability to serve crosses out of one-on-one situations.
Above, you see #20 find the end of such a diagonal during Friday’s loss, a game where Greenville put up just 0.88 xG in a shutout. In this game, Wright mixed up the formula to a certain extent, going with Zion Scarlett. Robles could push into a dual No. 9 look, but he was equally likely to take up supporting positions underneath Scarlett.
The hope was that Scarlett and Robles would both get into the box to chase Anderson’s crosses; you see the exact opposite in the screenshot. Scarlett is on the edge of the area, Robles is barely visible on the near side, and MacKinnon has snuck to the right channel - he’s the most likely receiver of all. No one is making a bold charge at goal.
Playing such a pass towards Anderson is something of a rarity in the first place. Since the start of July, Greenville’s average pass length has decreased by half a yard as compared to the opening months of 2024. They’re in a virtual tie with Spokane for the least progressive passing in League One during that span, evidence of a tepid and somewhat disconnected turn.
Those shorter, often slower moves are less likely to put attackers in advantageous positions. While MacKinnon was able to find a touch, cut onto his right foot, and hammer a long-range goal in the first Charlotte game, he and his teammates have felt restricted for the most part.
That’s the case in another screenshot from the more recent Independence loss. Scarlett receives toward the sideline here, back fully to goal. The result? #17 has to make a full turn to find any passing options, killing his forward momentum.
You see MacKinnon and Robles (denoted in light blue) as well as Lee and Carlos Anguiano (in green) as potential outlets, but all face immediate close-downs by Charlotte defenders. Greenville is stalled out.
Now, a first-half sending off for Robles certainly didn’t help the cause on Friday, but the Triumph didn’t feel like scoring before that point. This team isn’t even finding success on dead balls: they had five set piece and penalty goals from March to July and just one since then.
Castro, who got a few minutes off the bench last week, may be the panacea for all of Greenville’s offensive ailments, but I’m not so sure. The Triumph feel too predictable and slow, and they need something different to find their footing for the home stretch.
(And, hey, if you want smart people to talk about Greenville, go check out Triumph, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness!)
Omaha, Madison, and the importance of flexibility
The best game of the USL week happened on Thursday night, with Forward Madison edging Union Omaha on penalties after a three-all Jagermeister Cup thriller. This was a match where Madison hit hard out of the gates but Dom Casciato and Omaha fought back with equal creativity. With luck, it could be a preview of a title game to come.
Both sides came out in remarkably mirrored shapes, changing from back three to back four depending on the phase of play. For Omaha, that meant attacking in a 3-4-3 or 3-2-5, depending on how aggressive Dion Acoff and Charlie Ostrem wanted to charge forward at wing back. When Omaha pressed, however, they tended to do so in a 4-4-2 formation.
To get there, Acoff and right winger Joe Gallardo both had to drop low. Meanwhile, Ostrem would remain at a typical height as the new “left midfielder.”
The efficacy of those transitional rotations were an early flashpoint. A Madison side that shifted between a defensive 5-2-3 in low block to a marauding 2-4-4 in attack was able to take advantage.
Matt Glaeser’s brand of transition offense hinged on Wolfgang Prentice on the left. Prentice has been a clutch contributor for much of 2024, and he had the sixth sense for when to sneak ahead beyond and elevated Acoff. Moreover, Jake Crull’s ability to slide up the left side -transitioning from central defense to full back - made the effect that much stronger. Acoff was caught between multiple threats.
In League One play this season, Prentice ranks as the #1 full back in terms of both goals and assists per 90 minutes. Some of that success comes down to the innate aggressiveness of his role, but it undeniably illustrates the way he can punish defenses. Acoff, meanwhile, ranks in the 23rd percentile with just 0.7 tackles per 90, and he wins about 44% of his duels. His offensive brilliance eventually paid off on Thursday to make up for it, but Prentice took him to church on the break early in the game.
Even if Madison had an edge on paper because of Crull and Prentice, access to them wouldn’t be a guarantee. Omaha is one of the better pressing and counterpressing teams in League One, and they’re excellent at closing down to deny transitional chances.
Indeed, Casciato and co. concede just 0.13 xG on the break per game; that’s amounted to one single counterattacking concession across all competitions. Meanwhile, they’re the only team in the division to force opponents to underperform their expected pass completion rate. Omaha’s foes average an expected rate of 76.9% (lowest in the league) and actually complete passes at a flat 76.0% (also lowest).
Madison’s answer? Use your center backs to force takeaways, thereby allowing your midfield and forward lines to counterattack quickly before Omaha could find their shape. To that end, both Timmy Mehl and Mitchell Osmond were happy to step up and put in defensive actions well outside their area. 14 of their 18 interventions came beyond the box, and four even occurred in the opposing half of the field.
We saw the impact early, when Mehl’s step against Zeiko Lewis in the second minute forced an Omaha turnover. With Acoff caught upfield, Prentice had the space to slip behind the defense and score. Another similar chance came about in the 14th minute: you start with a Mehl step, drive into Prentice, and benefit.
Lewis was most often the target of that aggressive pressure, given his history as a No. 10 and tendency to tuck between the lines. The Bermuda international would score a goal, but he didn’t create a single chance and ended up with just 24 touches in 59 minutes before subbing off. It was a testament to Forward Madison’s tenacious denials between the lines.
Facing a deficit, Omaha needed to shore up their shape to find a way to break Madison down. Keeping Acoff and Ostrem lower was one way to do so. If the full backs could find touches in deeper areas, the hosts would have to overextend or face the consequences.
You see an example here, with Casciato’s side attacking from left to right against a Madison team in a mid-block 3-4-3. Omaha’s preference hete would be to push Ostrem way up toward the box. Instead, the wing back - circled in lightning yellow at the far sideline - sits deep and forces a defender to step up against him.
Meanwhile, the double pivot of Nortei Nortey and Brandon Knapp tag-teams against a lone Madison center mid. Nortey is on the midfielder’s back side, and the Madison man knows it; he can’t step up against Knapp as a result, lest he give Nortey a lane down the middle. Omaha forces indecision, and it allows Knapp to step up into the open space, receive a pass, and ultimately play a through ball to Steevan Dos Santos.
These sorts of plays - targeted overloads featuring tight-packed midfielders and technical passing - were an engine for the guests. Knapp was especially strong moving without the ball. The rookie ended up with 31 touches in the Madison half and 35 in his own, a testament to that do-it-all motor.
Nortey, meanwhile, was critical to Omaha’s opening goal. He and Blake Malone (a central defender) started a similar sequence to that shown above, but with attacker Joe Gallardo as the Knapp-esque third man. With Gallardo probing and Nortey pulling strings, Madison was bent out of shape and allowed Acoff to receive one-on-one and cross for an assist. That’s why Acoff is so crucial - and why he’s a natural finishing piece to pair with Omaha’s skillful midfield.
Still, the comeback was only on when Pedro Dolabella entered the mix. Casciato swapped a defender for the No. 10, creating a true 4-2-3-1 shape with the 25-year-old at the eye of the Omaha storm. Dolabella is a tremendous two-way player, and he gave his team an obvious numerical edge where it counted down the middle. Madison, meanwhile, was too slow to adjust and suffered because of it.
What did Dolabella provide? His defensive acumen can’t be understated. From low rotations into the midfield that denied flashing runs across the edge of the box to elevated pressure against bounce-pass receivers, #9 was active in a way his shirt number wouldn’t portend.
Further ahead, Dolabella was a metronomic distributor in the final third. The lion’s share of his touches came in the half spaces, and left-to-right distribution that set up Lagos Kunga and Gallardo was especially key. Gallardo, it should be noted, essentially defended as a No. 6 in block before arising to a second striker role in possession. Dolabella let him cook.
Throw in the game-tying goal, and it was a massive outing for Dolabella - and a fitting payoff for a fascinating tactical matchup. Both of these teams know how to throw a haymaker, and everything from the Prentice-driven start to Omaha’s tactical comeback had a lot to say about these two teams. When push comes to shove, Forward Madison and Union Omaha are both going to have something to say in the playoffs.
Rocky Mountain high press
Did anyone have a better week than the Switchbacks? With a combined 7-1 margin over in-form Memphis and Tulsa sides, Colorado Springs made a statement with their defensive structure and underrated squad depth. I had real concerns that selling Maalique Foster would undercut this club’s 2024 aspirations, but the opposite has been true: Colorado Springs may be even better by leaning into the sum of their parts.
Start with the structure. James Chambers is a 4-2-3-1 manager, and his team hasn’t strayed from that look on paper. You’re getting a double pivot of Aidan Rocha and Speedy Williams behind a band of three attackers, and Matt Mahoney is anchoring the back four. What’s fascinating is how that shape can bend and contort.
Essentially, the Switchbacks want to press up from that basic formation into a 3-5-2. There’s variation in how that shape looks (it was more of a 3-4-1-2 against Memphis and a 3-1-4-2 against Tulsa) but the route to get there is consistent: when the opponent passes to one side, the ball-side winger and full back both advance. Meanwhile, their counterparts on the weak side slink back.
You see a basic example above. In the graphic, 901 moves toward the Colorado Springs right, so the right winger and right back step up aggressively. Meanwhile, the left winger and left back drop lower to fend off the possibility of a diagonal switch over the pressers.
The Memphis game is hard to use as a motivating example given that the Switchbacks instantly took a two-goal lead, but you can still see the effect in the numbers. 901 center back AB Cissoko completed just 71% of his passes, more than 12% below his seasonal average. Tulu, another defender, underperformed his 2024 rate by 4% as well. Colorado Springs’ structure limited passing options and forced incompletions.
The performances of Tyreek Magee (the No. 10) and Jonas Fjeldberg (the left winger) were critical. Fjeldberg picked up a brace with the opening whistle still ringing in his ears, and Magee was as slick as can be as a creator. More importantly, the duo attempted 16 duels and won a majority of them. Their heady pressure underpinned the entire setup.
That neither started on Sunday and that Colorado Springs looked even better is a perfect testament to this team’s quality.
With Zach Zandi and Jairo Henriquez taking over, Colorado Springs got another goal within the first few minutes, but it was the press that stole the show again. That attacking pair - bolstered by Duke Lacroix in an exceptional outing at right back - shut Tulsa down entirely on their left side. Left back Patrick Seagrist went 21 for 31 on pass attempts, and he was caught red-handed on three of the four Colorado Springs goal. Left winger Diogo Pacheco, a breakout star in recent weeks, received just 24 touches.
You see why in the screenshot. Between the forward (marked in black), midfielders (in blue), and full back (in white), the Switchbacks have fully shifted from 4-2-3-1 into their high-flying 3-1-4-2 pressing shape. The hosts simply don’t have room to work down the overloaded flank.
Between the two games, Chambers’ side conceded one goal and just 1.5 xG - and that’s while taking the foot off the gas for large chunks of time with big leads. When the Switchbacks have gone all-out, they’ve been undeniable. With less than two months remaining in the regular season, Colorado Springs feels like they’re hitting their stride at the exactly right moment, and they’re doing so on the back of a genuinely exciting tactical identity.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of Miami surpassing the 10-point mark? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Be sure to check out the ongoing Race to the Playoffs series over at the USL site. For one, Nicholas Murray is doing a fantastic job of contextualizing matchups every single week. For another, he’s also including my playoffs odds in the piece. Come for the bang-on analysis, stay for me cosplaying as Nate Silver.
Duke Lacroix should’ve been Player of the Week, just to return to the Switchbacks for a sec. He’s playing as an inverted full back these days, and the left-footed curler he scored against Tulsa is nasty, nasty work.
My main man Kaylor Hodges put out a super fascinating podcast about the Birmingham Legion last week, exploring whether it’s time to break up their longstanding core. I’ll let you listen for the meat of the argument, but Birmingham possibly needing a refresh is such a fascinating place to land in a league that rarely allows a core to stick around for any amount of time.
I don’t know if I’ve got any Rings of Power heads out there, but I’m so excited to have it back. People are weirdly precious about The Lord of the Rings as if the movie trilogy didn’t make its own decisions and cuts; RoP isn’t up to that standard, but it’s beautifully shot and has as much to say about human nature and political power as any other Tolkien adaptation.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: none, it’s just a chart lol