The Back Four: Taylor Davila, attendance, and more from Week 31

Breaking down LouCity's star midfielder, struggles in Tampa Bay and Spokane, and Knoxville's secret weapon

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL.

First order of business: Hit up Backheeled for a recap of the entire week that was in the Championship. If you’re reading this, you know Backheeled is the premier place for independent coverage of American soccer.

Second: I have a longer-form piece up on North Carolina and Lexington moving up to the Championship. In a closed pyramid, making the leap isn’t a guaranteed money-maker in the face of increased salaries and travel costs. I examine why self-funded promotion is a worthwhile investment.

Now, let’s get to it.

Dissecting Davila

Is Louisville City the best team in the history of the USL? There’s an argument to be made for it, though you probably can’t adjudicate that case until the playoffs are over and done with. If LouCity is that good, Taylor Davila is the major reason why.

Davila was part of a stunningly strong offseason re-tool, one that also saw Arturo Ordonez, the reigning Defender of the Year, and borderline stars like Adrien Perez and Sam Gleadle join up. Aiden McFadden and Phillip Goodrum came mid-season but with similar acclaim. Jansen Wilson was a diamond in the rough, andhe’s been unbelievable in his first professional season. All the additions served to amplify Danny Cruz’s territorially dominant 3-4-3, none more-so than Davila.

With Rio Grande Valley, the center mid tended to play as a No. 8 in a back three system or as a No. 10 in a conventional 4-2-3-1. Cruz’s masterstroke was to deploy Davila in a role where he did both things at once.

Paired with Elijah Wynder in the pivot, Davila is the likelier center mid to sit back and fend off opposing breaks. Wynder has put up more blocks and clearances, but that’s because his height is useful on defensive set pieces; his partner tends to make his mark in the run of play. To classify Davila as a dyed-in-the-wool No. 6, however, would be a misnomer.

The 24-year-old is nigh unmatched in terms of his ball recovery skills. Davila tends to camp outside the 18-yard area during Louisville’s long spells of possession, allowing him to circulate play and find positions from which to counterpress.

In the last three matches, a (1) draw away to Indy, a (2) win against Miami, and a (3) win at Memphis, Davila has a total of 26 ball recoveries in the midfield. You see them mapped out above, a healthy mix of pick-ups in the final third and regains in the defensive half. On the season, Davila averages 6.7 recoveries per game, which is a 94th percentile mark. Almost no one is as effective at finding and keeping the ball.

You can’t understate the importance of that skillset to the Cruz system. Louisville tends to be direct and vertical in build, but not in the “punt it and hope for the best” sense. Long balls seek out targeted three- or four-man overloads in the channels, and their goal is to quickly establish a foothold in the attacking zone. Without Davila’s magnetic ability to find knockdowns and to provide a quick check-down passing option for receivers, LouCity would struggle to execute on that gameplan.

Pair the recoveries with a stellar 75% passing accuracy in the offensive zone, and you’ve got a player that’s built to shine within Louisville’s gameplan. The thing that takes Davila to the next level is an incredible creative verve on top of theretention skills.

Davila has six assists this year, and he leads his team with 72 chances created. That mark is 20 higher than Ray Serrano, the next-closest player. Those two are primary set piece takers, with Davila showing off his left foot on in-swinging set pieces from the right side. He’s sixth in the USL with 2.6 set piece xA as a result.

Still, don’t let that excellence on dead balls paint the wrong picture. Davila is still third in the league in key passes in the run of play, and he’s terrific at weighting left-footed serves into the area.

You see the mix of patience and incision above. In that example, #17 is inverted in a right-central spot, and he’s playing catch with a number of teammates as he anchors the half space. When the moment arrives, Davila hits a gorgeous left-footed cross to a far runner and nearly adds to his assist total.

That the midfielder actually has more goals (seven) than assists (six) is a testament to his awesome impact. Davila can show off a cannon from range, which adds beautiful variety to his edge-of-the-area talents. There’s grace, too, as with the give, go, and finish the former Toro broke out in the win against Sacramento a few months back.

In Taylor Davila, Louisville City has a talisman. Outside of Aaron Molloy, there isn’t a single midfielder in the USL that’s as willing to do the dirty work and as skillful in the final third. Davila’s talents were on display in nascent form with Los Angeles and Rio Grande Valley, but it’s a testament to Louisville’s scouting and Danny Cruz’s singular tactical vision that the center mid has emerged as a do-it-all superstar in 2024.

Attendance Update

It’s been months since I posted a legit USL Championship attendance update, so without further ado…

Of course, you can find these numbers tracked live on this site, but it’s useful to anchor things as we enter the final three weeks. Miami is the only club that’s completely finished with their home slate, and they’ve locked up last-place finishes in the attendance and league tables. They’ve also undergone the second-biggest attendance drop in the Championship.

Meanwhile, Charleston and Loudoun are the biggest risers year-over-year. The Battery have done extremely well to turn last year’s comeback, the USL Cup run, and maybe even Markanich hype into better numbers. Loudoun, meanwhile, continues the upward trend under their new-ish ownership in the post-affiliate era.

As a whole, the Championship’s average attendance is 5,196. That’s about a 8% drop from 2023. You need to consider that Rio Grande Valley and San Diego were replaced by Rhode Island and North Carolina, an average attendance drop on both counts, but the attendance number is still down about 5% among the 22 holdover teams.

Disastrous? Of course not. You’d still hope to see most of the league circle the wagons and start gaining again in 2025, or at least have plans in place to leverage the 2026 World Cup.

Volatile Velocity

Losing Luis Gil was obviously going to impact Spokane in the final third, but something about this team feels elementally different in his absence. Union Omaha is a tall task for any team in the USL - and I say that in reference to League One and the Championship alike - but the errors on show last week in a 4-0 loss were something to be concerned about.

Progression hasn’t been the primary issue. In the loss to Forward Madison, the match during which Gil went down, Spokane still took a solid 35 touches in zone 14 (i.e., the central edge of the box) and 24 further touches in zones 16 and 18 (i.e., the areas to either side of the box). That production turned into just four shots.

Same idea against Omaha, where Velocity got 31 touches on the edge of the box and 11 to the sides. A return of 13 shots was better, but only three ended up on target. Meanwhile, Spokane’s reworked 3-5-2, a shape featuring three center mids, didn’t provide enough incision in attack or steel in defense.

Throwing numbers forward to make up for lost creation has engendered defensive instability. There were hints of miscommunication in late September, best seen when a forward tore into a seam to score and seal a loss in Madison, but the Omaha match was defined by those sorts of issues.

The central defensive trio of Ahmed Longmore, Marcelo Lage, and Camron Miller simply couldn’t figure things in Nebraska. You see the lack of communication and rotation ahead of the first concession above. Longmire, the right-sided man in the back three, steps up to chase a forward. When no one replaces him, an Omaha player can make a run in behind and push Spokane back.

The play isn’t over from there, but the Velocity are at a distinct disadvantage already. The rest of the defense is sucked low and forced onto the back foot. A run against the grain from winger Joe Gallardo on the other side allows for a rebound opportunity to arise. 1-0.

A misstep from Longmire would influence the second concession as well. When #21 chased a receiver after a throw-in, he errantly vacated space in the box for Omaha to attack. A flashing run beat Lage - the centermost member of the back three - to the ensuing cross, allowing for a glancing header to come good. 2-0.

Not to pile on, but there was another golden chance in the 54th minute, even before that game-killing second concession. This one echoed the Madison sealer from two weeks prior, with an Omaha chip splitting between Lage and Miller to get a simple one-on-one against goalkeeper Brooks Thompson. Thompson stood on his head, but it was yet another sign of disconnection.

Without the ability to make hay in the final third, Spokane has come under pressure on the break with greater regularity. The risk-taking style of their center back group has largely been a good thing in 2024, but the penchant for intervention has proven much more dangerous in a Gil-less state of affairs.

This play is an exception, but it illustrates a different sort of problem that arose against Omaha. In this case, Longmire and Lage dig deep against forwards, and that prevents the hosts from getting to the endline or accessing an attacker on the near side. Omaha gets a late run to the edge of the box to take advantage, but Miller sniffs it out and intercepts.

End of danger, right? Not quite. Miller elects not to clear with immediacy even though he has a teammate mere feet away. Instead, he looks upfield. There, Kimarni Smith is making a straight-line run over the top while Josh Dolling drops lower to hold up. Miller tries to hit Dolling, his pass is intercepted, and the cycle of danger begins anew.

Things may go differently there if Gil is camped in the right half space to receive and shrug off pressure. That’s the dirty secret of this sport: attacking players have unseen effects in the defensive half, and vice versa. Spokane is learning that the hard way.

Tumult for Tampa Bay

The Rowdies are down bad, but you wouldn’t know it looking at the advanced stats. Tampa Bay leads the USL with 70.4 expected goals. They also sport the fifth-best expected defense, having conceded 39.6 xG.

Since August 10th, this club has put up more than 2.0 xG per game, yet they’re actually averaging just one goal per match during that same period. When rubber hits the road, only Miami and Monterey have earned less points during that two-month run.

What’s the problem for a team that looks like a juggernaut on paper? Finishing is an obvious culprit. Star strikers like Wilson Harris, Khori Bennett, and MD Myers have all converted at a 22% rate or better in 2024. By contrast, Manuel Arteaga and Cal Jennings have combined for 29 goals on 210 shots. That 14% clip is significantly under expectation.

Jennings is a particularly fascinating case. He’s one of the USL’s leaders in shots taken on the fast break, but his xG lost to placement is the worst in the Championship. In other words, Jennings is getting the ball in great positions, but he’s aiming his shots directly at the goalkeeper. He’s lost 4.5 xG because of that tic.

For my taste, the eye test doesn’t match up with the sizzling numbers at a broader level. If you’ve watched Tampa Bay in the last two months, you’ve seen a team that can’t maintain a solid defensive structure and often looks unconformable in their attacking alignment. Saturday’s loss in Rhode Island was a clear example of both points.

Robbie Neilson ran with his most-used shape, a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 formation featuring Arteaga as the central striker, Lewis Hilton at the base of the midfield, and a bit of variety in between. Ben Bender tended to play next to Hilton, but he could step up into the right half space. Leo Fernandes held down the left channel, with Josh Perez matching him on the right. It was a typical alignment for Tampa Bay, albeit with Jennings conspicuously absent.

In practice, Bender and Perez were trying to occupy the same spaces. Though Perez was likelier to push up into the box, their respective heatmaps were incredibly duplicative. You see an example above: Perez, labeled as a forward, has received with his back to goal and a RIFC defender bearing down on him. Bender is starting to make a forward run, but it’s late, and no one is ahead of him.

Now, that set-up isn’t bad, and it allows the Rowdies to keep the ball in the example screenshot with options further ahead. Repeating that scenario time and again without a legit pay-off was the problem.

Even when the spacing was right, Tampa Bay looked hesitant. The Rowdies, facing down an opponent that defended in a 5-3-2 with two pressing strikers, often elected to stretch their back line very wide in order to thin Rhode Island out. Doing so gave Hilton room to drop lower for touches.

When Hilton goes low in the clip, Bender pushes into the open seam and can receive to break lines. Play progresses into Arteaga’s feet from there as multiple Rowdies advance toward the box; you see how RIFC ends up on the back foot.

It all goes splendidly until Pacifique Nyongabire gets a touch. The wing back has been quite good in his first USL season, and he’s in the 99th percentile of all players at his position with 2.4 successful dribbles per game. Here, though, Nyongabire passes up on a golden one-on-one opportunity to get to the endline. The solid move dries up from there, and Tampa Bay can’t pay off their solid build move.

The Rowdies finished the Rhode Island match with 1.8 xG, but they felt underwhelming in practice. Meanwhile, that wide-split back line proved vulnerable against quicker moves and folded under pressure. The first concession owed to sloppy retention at the back and a Jordan Farr error, but that hasn’t been a constant. Farr has allowed just about one goal above expected this year, which is a write-off for someone that’s barely missed a match.

So, that’s a lot of hand-wringing; are the Rowdies actually okay? It’s tough to tell. Every number you can imagine anticipates regression to the mean, but we’re seven months into the season without that promise coming true. As much as I like the players and ideas on show in Tampa Bay, something isn’t gelling, and it’s unclear if Neilson has the answers to get back on track.

Unsung Sivert Haugli

Fresh off a two-draw week, One Knox is a playoff team. In spite of their in-season coaching change, Knoxville has kept up a high level for most of 2024 and arguably looks stronger under Ilija Ilic than they did on opening day.

The presence of Sivert Haugli in the pivot is a major stabilizer for this club, and it’s an unsung factor behind their postseason qualification. Haugli, 25 years old and a center back by trade, first came to the USL during a loan spell in Phoenix in 2022, and his performances were mixed. It’s hard to separate individual performances from Rising’s general disfunction that year, but Haugli ranked in the 12th percentile for his tackle win rate and was dribbled past 0.96 times per match in the Valley.

After a year home in Norway, Haugli is back in the USL with Knoxville and is shining in a new position: central midfield. Pairing strong ball retention skills with a keen destructive instinct, Haugli has been a natural in the center of the park. The surety he provides allows the rest of the midfield in One Knox’s 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 to express itself in a meaningful way.

You get three examples of Haugli’s contributions above. In the first case, he’s doing the job as the No. 6 against Forward Madison. As an opposing forward drops between the lines underneath Knoxville’s No. 8s, Haugli steps and makes sure the runner can’t receive in open space. Admittedly, there’s now a gap down the middle, but Knoxville is clearly prioritizing of threats. Madison is able to pass into the now-open middle, but Haugli knows that Callum Johnson will rotate back to put out the fire.

In the second play, #3 shows off his possessive talents. Haugli takes about 65 touches a match, and he’s got an extremely high 71% success rate on dribble attempts. Those attempts aren’t progressive as much as they’re pressure-relieving, and you get a hint of the skill above. Haugli receives, spins away from a closing defender, and deftly right-foots a pass to an outside back to help Knoxville advance.

It’s a similar idea in the final play. Haugli gets a touch ahead of the back three, but he first-times his pass this time around. Because the defense has closed on Haugli, there’s ample room to advance yet again. Knoxville uses their unsung star as a bouncing-off point to work toward wide and then hit their advanced attacking mids in the half spaces.

You wouldn’t have expected Haugli to become an elite holding mid back in his MLS NEXT Pro days or during his Phoenix run, but he’s done just that in Tennessee. The consistent, subtle contributions that Haugli provides are vital for One Knox and may well decide if they can make a postseason charge.

Threads!

Here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for a breakdown of Loudoun’s all gas, no brakes attack? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.

• Louisville - Miami (10/2)

• Phoenix - Monterey (10/4)

• Charleston - Detroit (10/5)

• Louisville - Indy (10/6)

• Miami - Pittsburgh (10/6)

• Rhode Island - Tampa Bay (10/6)

• Memphis - Oakland (10/6)

• Tulsa - El Paso (10/6)

• San Antonio - Sacramento (10/6)

• Las Vegas - Orange County (10/6)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Whoever scheduled five matches for this Wednesday night is a sicko. The season is really long!

• As always, go read the Race to the Playoffs series from Nicholas Murray on the USL site, and subscribe to The Rondo while you’re at it. Fantastic, must-read stuff if you want to stay abreast of the end-of-season havoc.

• Since I started this newsletter with Louisville talk, I’ll also plug Vamos Morados. My main man Benton Newman is doing stellar work covering all things LouCity there, and he’s one of the best club-specific writers out there. He and Nicholas are both mostly off of Twitter, which is an example we should all aspire to.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover photo credit: Taylor Davila / Instagram