The Back Four: talkin' transfers

Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Omaha, Spokane, and Rhode Island

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need an analysis-heavy recap of the entire Championship? Backheeled is the place to be.

Now, let’s get to it.

Transfer market taxonomy

We’re into silly season across the USL, and the last two weeks have seen a number of transfers already even though the league deadline is months away. All moves aren’t created equal, so I wanted to classify the usual sorts of USL transfers and see what they mean about their participant clubs.

(Also, Nicholas Murray naturally beat me to the transfer topic, so go check that out.)

1.) The Classic Transfer

There’s no simpler way to improve your team than going out and signing a player. Getting a talented player from within the league - think Phoenix signing Panos Armenakas or Charleston nabbing Mark Segbers in 2023 - is the preferred route. Even though the European window is open during the middle of the USL season, international acquisitions tend to be rare. Maybe fees discourage purchases from foreign clubs, or maybe players who know the rhythm and travel innate to the American season are more attractive, but it’s a truism nonetheless.

What have we seen this season? Last week, an ailing San Antonio team added Salvadoran international Nelson Blanco Flores from North Carolina. Flores is the prototypical player to get during the middle of the season. From the buy side, he fits a clear need. San Antonio lost starting left wing back Lucas Silva to injury and lacked any depth behind him that wasn’t 17 years old.

Getting a player with more than 80 games of USL experience, one with international tenure with El Salvador, is thus a no-brainer.

Why sell a player of that caliber if you’re North Carolina? They’re deep at wing back, for one. Ezra Armstrong would make my all-USL ballot and has shut Flores out of the lineup. Shaft Brewer can ably cover that spot in a pinch as well.

Getting a financial return for any player - even a modest fee - is never a bad thing either. Don’t let seven-digit sums from Europe fool you; USL transfer fees are tiny. When Bolu Akinyode moved to Miami a few years back, he garnered just $15,000 for Birmingham. The combined fees for Nate Worth and Justin Portillo leaving Tulsa this year barely exceeded that total. Still, money is money, and if you’re freeing up salary space, that can allow you to address other issues within your squad.

Some of the explanation comes down to benign, player-first squad management. Flores has been in Cary since he was a teenager, so treating him with respect and allowing him to pursue a better opportunity is just the right thing to do. Clubs that don’t allow those sorts of moves get a bad word-of-mouth reputation.

Sometimes there’s more risk involved for both parties, especially with higher-leverage transactions. When Jake LaCava was sold to San Antonio, it wasn’t just any other sale. Charleston was getting rid of a player that contributed to 17 goals in 2022, one with ample potential who had just inked a multi-year deal this winter. LaCava clearly wasn’t meshing on the field, but his exit rightly raised eyebrows. For San Antonio, though, the signing made a lot of sense. LaCava has immense natural talent; he’s someone you take a flyer on amidst poor form.

Rarely will you see a genuine USL star be sold in the middle of the season. Tanking isn’t a concept in a league without a draft, and the clubs that are bad enough to consider a sell-off usually don’t have stars in the first place. That FC Tulsa let Portillo and Worth leave in 2024 was a rare case of an organization caught between eras rather than any sort of intentional dive job; Sacramento and Tampa Bay benefited because of it.

2.) The Swap Deal

Trades are extremely rare in the international game, but they’re the lifeblood of player movement in the NBA, MLB, and other American leagues. It’s a part of our sporting culture, and that can cause consternation among USL supporters. You never see, say, NFL fans bat an eye about players’ rights or freedom of movement. By contrast, the USL community is sensitive to those concepts. It’s a hard balance to strike given how international the USL’s player pool is and how the league seeking to integrate itself into global markets.

Most such deals are structured as parallel transfers rather than true trades, and a few trends predominate when you’re thinking about USL players that get swapped. If you’re dreaming up a target for your club of choice, look to players who aren’t playing or are rapidly losing minutes. That was the case on both sides of the Younes Boudadi-for-Romario Williams deal last week.

Boudadi, a talented right back with three assists already in 2024, had gone the full 90 just three times all year. He didn’t even appear in five of Indy’s last seven pre-trade games as the team’s form hit historic highs. Williams, meanwhile, seemed to become a scapegoat for a flailing Hartford side. He cameoed off the bench in his final three games under Brendan Burke, but it was clear that pace and precision, anathema to Williams’ strengths, would be the priority henceforth.

Thus, both players were gettable. Both also fill needs for their new clubs. It was a union that made sense.

Entering the weekend, Hartford’s full backs had created just 25 chances. 64% of those were solely from Tristan Hodge at left back. The options at right back had been actively deleterious by contrast. Joey Akpunonu had completed just 55% of his passing attempts in the attacking half, and Rece Buckmaster had only attempted three crosses all year. Boudadi represented a night-and-day improvement, and given that Hartford just loaned Dantouma Toure in from MLS to play striker, they could sacrifice Williams to get him.

With the Jamaican international in tow, Indy now have half-a-dozen options for two striker spots in their 3-5-2. Look further, though, and the logjam is less marked. Sebastian Guenzatti is a natural No. 9 but often operates like a hybrid attacking mid (though that could change with Aodhan Quinn due back soon). Tega Ikoba and Karsen Henderlong have been injured and/or never got an opportunity in the first place. Williams scored 15 goals last year, was a goal-every-other-game type before that, and is a trustworthy backup at the very worst.

Swapping players at different positions can be rare, and attackers are the most typical trade targets. It’s easier to integrate a forward whose job is “score goals” than it is to acclimate a defender or midfielder into a new tactical setup. That isn’t universal, but think about the headline trades of the last few years: Marcus Epps for JJ Williams, Rodrigo Da Costa for Phillip Goodrum, and Lucky Mkosana for Antoine Hoppenot all fit the mold.

The right change can be season-altering. Indy has experienced that already. When they dealt Roberto Molina (a winger) and Danny Barbir (a ball-carrying center back) for ostensibly similar players in Ben Mines and Ben Ofeimu, it felt like a lateral move. Instead, Mines has locked down a wing back spot and Ofeimu may have an all-USL case to make in the Eleven’s back three. Smart talent identification goes a long way.

3.) The Free Agent

Some clubs prefer to plumb the depths of the market, cutting out the middle man of team-to-team negotiations to get free agents. Think about Orange County inking Kyle Scott in mid-to-late 2022 or Zico Bailey joining New Mexico partway into 2023.

Adding a veteran piece with some level of USL experience can be a safe call. Dre Fortune, who just signed with the Las Vegas Lights, is a case in point. I loved Fortune’s game during his time with North Carolina and Memphis. He’s a very solid No. 8 or conservative No. 10 who knows how to advance play with off-ball runs, and he’s a model fit in Dennis Sanchez’s system. Fortune was unattached after a stint in Estonia, and Las Vegas made their move accordingly.

Orange County just bolstered their back line by signing defender Sergio Chavez, a former member of the San Diego Loyal and Central Valley Fuego. I’m not going to tell you Chavez is a game changer, but he can fill a hole at center back. There’s a reason he debuted just days after putting pen to paper.

Chavez’s old club in League One just signed my favorite sort of player: an Open Cup gem. As when Valentin Sabella signed with Charlotte after shining against them, Dembor Benson of El Farolito earned a fully professional opportunity with Fuego because of his breakout performances in the Cup.

Benson, the bother of classic “that guy” Jerry Bengston, got a brace against Central Valley in a Cup-set effort that put him on the map. That level of quality didn’t abate a round later against Oakland. Benson has prototypical height and surprising ability with the ball at his feet, and he could be a game changer for a team sorely in need of a scorer.

Midseason free agents a la Fortune and Benson are often diamonds in the rough, but they come with upside that makes them attractive propositions. Most players in this bucket are only expected to be squad players in the first place.

4.) The MLS Loan

Need a quick fix with minimal financial commitment? Getting a player on loan from MLS is your best bet. This week, Birmingham added goalkeeper Jayden Hibbert from Atlanta United to cover for injuries in net. It’s the Legion’s second such move of the season, in fact, coming in the wake of a loan that saw Real Salt Lake’s Fernando Delgado come to town.

Hibbert’s numbers (more than two goals against per 90, bottom-ten goals conceded above expected) don’t inspire confidence, but he can do a job for Birmingham in the short term. (As an aside: it’s fascinating to see how other USL alums are doing in MLS NEXT Pro this year, whether really good like Trey Muse or lamentably poor like Nick Holliday.)

In any event, the problem with these loan moves is that they can be ethereal. Jack Panayotou came to Rhode Island a month or so ago, got two assists on his debut, showed great flexibility across the attacking midfield, and then got recalled. Similar thing with Delgado in Birmingham. When you’re building a team, you want reliable contributors, and that’s not always the case with loans.

These moves are attractive propositions for MLS teams when they go right. Why let a promising prospect rot on the bench or play down a level in MLS NEXT Pro when they could get legit USL minutes? A recall is an emergency option; a season’s worth of pro experience is the aim.

San Antonio has made great use of the loan market over the years. Tani Oluwaseyi lit up the Championship in 2023 to the tune of 17 goals, and he’s now a full Canadian international, never having lost the confidence he gained on loan. It was a similar story for Samuel Adeniran a year prior, and Rida Zouhir was another impact loanee in 2023, albeit without the ensuing MLS contributions.

These transactions can be a “try before you buy” proposition as well. Colorado Springs got a taste of Delentz Pierre in their back line late last season, and now he’s a full member of the squad. You can see a world where they do the same thing with Yosuke Hanya for 2025; ditto for a team like Phoenix with Remi Cabral, another Colorado Rapids-to-USL loanee.

There’s more than one way to skin the cat when it comes to roster building, and the best method varies by a club’s needs and resources. We’re already seeing the ramifications in 2024, and moves past and future will play a crucial role in the playoff hunt to come.

Omaha, systems, and finishing

It’s hard to differentiate between “lucky” and “good,” and you could make a convincing argument that they’re deeply interconnected concepts. The best teams put themselves into the positions to get fortunate. What is success, if not sustained luck?

Union Omaha has a few players running hot in front of net, and it would be easy to foretell of regression to come. That likely won’t be the case. Dom Casciato’s system is built to maximize his best attackers, and his ability to instill sustainable principles allows Omaha to make their own luck.

Take the recent run of games as an example of those principles. Omaha always has multiple players occupying the central areas when they attack, and they almost always supplement that presence with players on both sidelines. No team in the USL maintains numbers in the box while also stretching the pitch with Omaha’s consistency.

Take this example, a sequence from a 0-0 draw against Central Valley. Though Omaha wasn’t at their sharpest, you still get a sense of that ever-present “front five” design. Out of a baseline 4-2-3-1, striker Aaron Gomez is joined by the entire attacking midfield and a carrying Anderson Holt from left back to cause trouble.

Fuego use a back four, so Omaha’s fivesome produced a natural man advantage. Two weeks later, Casciato came up against a fundamentally opposite team in Chattanooga. The Red Wolves played with a back five, and they instructed that defensive line to sit high up the pitch. The goal was to stop Omaha before their typical patterns could develop; the result was a 5-2 rout.

Omaha’s positional sense remained consistent, but they were more willing to play direct and take risks in possession. Support from the wide areas was later-arriving against a compact Central Valley team, while a more expansive approach punctuated by fearsome interchange atop a 3-4-3 won the day against Chattanooga.

Those structural tenets pay off in both directions for this club. Offensive control limits defensive vulnerability; quick takeaways breeding counterattacking chances. You see that above from last week’s 4-1 win over Spokane.

At the start of the play, Omaha is pinning the Velocity to the sideline in a lower-block iteration of the 3-4-3. Missael Rodriguez has dropped from the forward line in support, and he’s joined by Marco Milanese at wing back and PC from the central midfield to spring a trap.

The trio forces an errant pass, one that Rodriguez picks up. From there, it’s a fast break. Because Omaha retained their structure, they’re instantly ready to advance. A neat give-and-go sees them into the final third, and - lo and behold! - it’s that classic front five bearing down on four Spokane defenders. One wonky cross later, and it’s a tap in for Rodriguez.

This was a game in which the Chicago Fire loanee got that goal, Pedro Dolabella added a header, and Lagos Kunga scored after taking a man’s life with a nutmeg. Those three players have been regulars on the scoresheet, but their statistical overperformance is also why you might raise an eyebrow at Omaha’s conversion rate in 2024.

In terms of goals scored above expected, the trio of Kunga, Dolabella, and Rodriguez all sit among the USL League One leaders. Omaha actually has four players in the top 20 (thanks, Blake Malone!) while no other team is in excess of two. That’s a big gap.

My gut reaction was that Omaha is generating chances that are better than the xG models are picking up. Say, for example, that Rodriguez tap-in from earlier was labelled as 0.5, but that the goalkeeper’s positioning and brokenness of the play made it easier to score.

That ultimately isn’t likely. Firstly, I trust the models. Secondly, the data shows that sustained shot quality doesn’t bear any connection to xG overperformance. Over the last five seasons in the USL Championship, there’s a 0.002 R-squared if you’re trying to explain variance in goals above expected using xG per shot. Chances are worth what they’re worth, and there isn’t a magical threshold at which finishing becomes easier.

In the end, finishing is a skill. Omaha has numerous high-end finishers, and they’re wickedly good at putting those players into strong positions. This is a club that trusts their process, and it’s paying off handsomely.

Terminal Velocity?

Spokane has been as good as you can get as an USL expansion, but their results have flagged as of late. Leigh Veidman isn’t getting away from his usual tenets of careful 4-2-3-1 possession and considerately applied aggression in the back line, but the Velocity are winless in their last three games with a combined 7-1 margin.

By leaguewide standaess over the last four matches, Spokane has actually performed well enough on paper. They’re a top five teams in terms of xG output, and their defense, while mediocre, isn’t an unmitigated disaster like that of the three laggards beneath them.

So why the bad results? Momentary lapses in pressing structure and an inability to exit the defensive zone have doomed the Velocity in key moments.

You see the Velocity in their typical pressing shape here, with Collin Fernandez stepping up from the pivot to mark a Forward Madison midfielder on the other side. The result of Fernandez’s step is an adjusted 4-1-4-1, but one that lacks cohesion. Andre Lewis doesn’t rotate centrally from the other pivot role, Derek Waldeck doesn’t tuck in from left back, and a gaping hole arises as a result.

That’s the structural component, but Spokane also has a bad knack for ineffective clearances. I’ve previously praised Ahmed Longmire and Marcelo Lage for their quick reactions at the center back spots, but neither has been confident lumping the ball out of harm’s way this year. The move above isn’t a perfect example, but the defensive header in question is still weak.

The ball ends up in that undefended pocket, Spokane scrambles, and a goal ensues.

You get a still here from the 4-1 loss to Omaha, with the two center mids (marked in blue) and three attacking mids (marked in black) defending around halfway. This time, Lewis has stepped up from his deeper role with Fernandez remaining lower.

It should be a simple scenario where four players clamp down on one opponent to get a stop, but do you see any ball pressure? It’s far too easy for the hosts to slice through that elevated midfield and dominate in the half spaces - take your pick of which one, because neither is adequately covered.

These aren’t wholesale defensive collapses by any stretch, but they illustrate how Spokane needs to tighten up. Though the Velocity are on the outside looking in relative to their Jagermeister Cup group, they’re in a playoff spot in the league. It’s a long season, but the start has been strong and some of the faults are correctable.

Conor McGlynn

When you get a red card in the 88th minute and concede twice in extra time to blow a two-goal lead, you’re snakebit. I’m still rather high on what Rhode Island is doing in their maiden campaign, but there’s not a team in the USL that needs a win more badly right now. RIFC has just one victory all year!

For all the consternation, Khano Smith is continuing to change up his lineup in interesting and clever (if not entirely successful) ways. One such move has seen Conor McGlynn re-enter the starting lineup in the midfield.

Often used as a center back while with Hartford Athletic, part of the appeal of Rhode Island for McGlynn was the ability to push further upfield. Smith signed him to do damage in the midfield, and when holes have arisen at the back, it’s been Clay Holstad moving into defense.

How has McGlynn fared higher up? The 25-year-old got a goal in an Open Cup loss to Charlotte, but it’s only in the last three weeks that has impact has regularly been felt. During 198 minutes across that stretch, McGlynn is 112 for 124 on pass attempts with four shots, 18 ball recoveries, and six takeaways.

Given his experience across the back half of the Hartford lineup, #28 brings particularly keen instincts as a defensive stopper. Above, you see him in two distinct deployments: as part of the pivot in a 4-2-3-1 and as a higher-placed No. 8 in a 3-1-4-2 press.

In that first role, McGlynn did two jobs, both of which are shown. When Rhode Island pressed high against Detroit’s 2-4-4 build shape, McGlynn was often the man called upon to step up and create parity in the midfield. That’s the case in the first example where he intercepts a potentially incisive pass. In more settled situations in mid or low block, the midfielder sits in; you see it in that second play where he denies a receiver off a Detroit throw.

Compare that to the sequence from the draw in Memphis. There, McGlynn man marks one of the opposing center mids and tightens any angles down the middle in the process. McGlynn isn’t diving in or fronting the 901 man. He’s sticking tight without overextending or compromising RIFC’s broader formation.

You get a sense for McGlynn in possession here, greasing the wheels of a Rhode Island attack that values tempo and wants to build through the wings. You don’t see how direct this team tends to be, but that’s a feature of getting #28 into the lineup. McGlynn has the technique to support a more patient passing game.

The first play shows McGlynn sliding over to the right sideline, bouncing a pass back and forth to a teammate. That initiating action draws the attention of a Detroit winger, and so #28’s ensuing run towards the center of the park forces that player to follow him inside. The result? An open passing lane to an advanced RIFC man up the right. The flow and interchange on display from there is exactly how this club wants to attack.

In the second case, you get a sense of the midfielder’s quick thinking on the ball. He recovers possession after an errant pass, slides into a pocket within the opposing press, and first-times a pass into Stephen Turnbull on the turn upfield. McGlynn himself is doing the hard charging in the final clip, picking up the ball at halfway, dishing to a teammate, and continuing his run towards net.

These past three weeks have been an education in McGlynn’s sense as a mover in the final third. In the first play (one marked by horrid camerawork), #28 advances into the box off a throw-in. Because JJ Williams shows wide to hold play up, McGlynn smartly replaces him in a more central area and hammers home a sweet finish.

It’s another out-of-bounds play in the second case and another example of McGlynn filling for a teammate. Again, Williams comes ballside to receive, but Mark Doyle - his strike partner - lurks closer to the net. Noticing this, McGlynn plays a second striker role behind Doyle and is position for a rebound attempt that’s painfully close to going in.

This is what Conor McGlynn gives you across phases of play, and it’s why he can help Rhode Island to get right. So many matches this season for the expansion club have turned on the smallest moments. McGlynn has the ability to make key stops and read the game in a way that can turn the tide in RIFC’s favor when it counts.

Threads!

I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for a breakdown of Hartford’s post-trade look? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.

• Memphis - Rhode Island (6/12)

• Loudoun - Las Vegas (6/14)

• Charleston - Detroit (6/15)

• Indy - San Antonio (6/15)

• Tampa Bay - Louisville (6/15)

• Memphis - New Mexico (6/15)

• Colorado Springs - Orange County (6/15)

• El Paso - Phoenix (6/15)

• Sacramento - Oakland (6/15)

• North Carolina - Monterey (6/16)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• The USL schedule makers are incredibly rude for putting 10:00 and 10:30 EDT games at midweek.

• Bruno Rendon is doing incredible things right now in Northern Colorado. I’ve talked about the Hailstorm too much lately in this space, but the way they’re tailoring their approach every single week is wonderful.

• Is Orange County alright? Like, yeah, I get there’ve been tons of injuries, but the performances have been so tepid for weeks now. Not to be alarmist, but you have to wonder if the Sofiane Djeffal exit is a canary in the coal mine. He was so good early in the year, and I’ve heard he’s actively seeking a new club within the USL.

• I got to see a Jude Law Q&A at the premiere of his new movie last week, and I’m seeing the new Yorgos Lanthimos joint with an in-person intro from Jesse Plemons this week. Living in the media capital of the world rules.

See you soon!

Photo credit to Matt May/Tampa Bay Rowdies on the cover page.