The Back Four: takeaways from Week 24
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for New Mexico, Miami, Chattanooga, and Richmond
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
Now, let’s get to it.
New Mexico’s magic midfield
A few months back, a very dumb person predicted that New Mexico would finish 10th in the West. Smarter people like Nicholas Murray at least had New Mexico as a playoff qualifier, but we weren’t looking at a title threat from even the most optimistic perspectives.
A few months on, there’s no doubt about it: New Mexico is here to contend, and they increasingly look like a team with one of the best midfields in the USL - no matter which three players are a part of it at any given time.
In terms of the basic setup, Eric Quill hasn’t strayed far from a 4-2-3-1 throughout 2024. Whether New Mexico uses a double pivot with two deeper-seated mids or a single pivot is an academic concern, since all three centermen in Quill’s formation are expected to contribute in both directions.
Firstly, his is a team that builds on the ground. United’s long pass share ranks 20th in the league, and they go long on a similarly low share of their goal kicks. When the style is working, it means that New Mexico can climb the ladder from back to front with patience and control.
To that end, both Marco Micaletto and Nanan Houssou rank among the top dozen center mids for touches per match. Zico Bailey and Sergio Rivas are also above average; all four players getting at least 47.0 touches per game. Their mix of skills is fascinating. Bailey is more of a classic box-to-box shuttler, Rivas a box-crashing No. 10. Houssou can be a dominant destroyer and powerful dribbler, while Micaletto is pure class as a passer.
Patterns can vary because of that variety. This team has the tools and flexibility to form passing triangles and work through any style of press.
In a recent win in Indianapolis, New Mexico started the match using a double pivot of Bailey and Houssou, but they lacked a foothold. The passing angles from central defense towards central midfield were very straight-line, and Indy’s boxy 5-1-2-2 press was able to stop either player from breaking lines. The only choice was to go longer and hopefully hit a forward at their feet, but that was risky.
In the second half, Quill switched into a look with just one holding midfielder - often a low-swooping Rivas - and tore the Eleven apart. The single pivot is seen above, with New Mexico in a 4-1-4-1. Rivas starts the play sitting between the center backs. In doing so, he lends New Mexico an edge.
You see the effect in the clip and the graphic. Because Rivas goes low and both Houssou and Bailey go high, the Eleven’s attacking mids have to split up. Meanwhile, #7 curls his run as he approaches the box, drawing an additional Indy forward with him. Suddenly, there’s a runway that defender Talen Maples can dribble into.
Further upfield, Bailey matches Rivas by shifting to the right and pulling Indy even deeper into the trap. The result? Maples has a clear runway, Houssou has space, and the break is on. It’s incredibly quick, and it’s a result of New Mexico’s next-level midfield intelligence.
Judiciously employing the 4-1-4-1 also pays off in the press, allowing New Mexico to match any midfield they come up against. Consider this defensive sequence from the draw against Tulsa’s 4-3-3. To start, you’ve got:
Sergio Rivas on the near-side center mid
Sergio Rivas on the centermost center mid
Abdi Mohamed, the right back, on the final Tulsa midfielder
As the hosts swing to the side, each player switches to a new mark. The shifting compresses Tulsa against the sideline and allows Mohamed the freedom to close down hard. Suddenly, a turnover ensues, and Harry Swartz is in on goal. It’s only possible because of the incredibly organized effort elsewhere in the midfield.
I’ve focused on “one low, two high” setups so far, but the 4-2-3-1 has been just as crucial the year. Indeed, Saturday’s win against Monterey was driven by the Rivas-Bailey pair in the pivot. Those two combined for five takeaways, but their ability to limit space against Monterey’s inverted wingers was more crucial than any number on the stat sheet.
New Mexico isn’t always perfect, as in the recent losses against Las Vegas and Louisville where the opposition set the terms. Still, Quill has learned his lesson since then. As New Mexico heads into the home stretch seven points clear of Sacramento, their versatility down the middle is going to be a valuable asset.
Let me be Frank
Frank Lopez may have the toughest job in the USL as Miami FC’s #1 striker. Against all odds, last-place Miami actually isn’t a bottom-five scoring offenses. Much of the credit belongs to Lopez, a rare veteran in a team full of youngsters and sub-Championship pieces.
You saw the impact against Memphis last week, where Lopez hit the mark after just five minutes on a chipped ball over the top. That’s the sort of play that the 29-year-old striker thrives on: fast, loose, and a little bit shaggy. Making something out of nothing is an important skillset for any striker, and Lopez has shown it in spades for a Miami team that’s a black hole of nothingness.
Now, Lopez isn’t setting the world on fire or competing for the Golden Boot. In terms of shot volume and goalscoring, he’s pretty much an average forward. His game is defined by opportunism more than sustained impact: Lopez ranks in the 4th percentile for touches and the 2nd for aerial wins. He’s basically invisible outside of the occasional poached finish.
And yet, that instinct for poaching is Miami’s backbone. This club typically runs a 5-3-2 shape, one exceedingly short on possessive control in dangerous areas. Long passes into the channel are Miami’s stock and trade, and they’ve relied on attackers like Allen Gavilanes or Luisinho to come up with magic moments on the break to score goals. Their ability to do so has only arisen because Lopez knows how to keep a defense honest.
Take the example above from Miami’s draw against Loudoun from a few months back. This was last time they didn’t lose a game, and that result came because of Lopez.
It’s a simple but efficient sequence. One central defender steps up to force a takeaway to start the play; Antonio Nocerino loves when his back line can get aggressive, even if his team has rarely executed on that philosophy. After the interception, another center back steps up and carries the ball all the way to the halfway line.
By then, Lopez and his partner have forked their runs between the seams in Loudoun’s defense. #11 receives, puts on the ol’ razzle dazzle, and slams home a goal with maximum power. That’s the Cuban forward’s game in a nutshell: smart running, efficient use of a low center of gravity, and bluntly lethal finishing.
This is now Frank Lopez’s sixth USL Championship team, and it’s clear that he’s got the goods. Almost every forward alive would struggle in the underfunded, apathetic environment at Pitbull Stadium, but Lopez’s continued ability to come through - middling statsheet be damned - is an impressive positive in a season with few of those pluses for Miami.
Red Wolves in the red
Chattanooga is in ninth place in League One, a mere point outside of the playoffs. Chattanooga has also allowed 32 goals in league play, the only team to surpass the 30 mark. If you dig under the hood, the fact that they’ve stayed afloat with bizarre and occasionally abhorrent defensive metrics is something a mystery.
The passes you allow an opponent to complete are often a useful indicator of defensive style. Omaha, for instance, goads their foes into playing passes with an average vertical distance of 8.5 yards, well above league average. That’s a sign that they effectively restrict short passing lanes.
The Red Wolves’ “passing against” metrics are as middle-of-the-road as can be, which ought to signal competence. Chattanooga doesn’t allow teams to dominate possession with short passes, and they don’t concede an especially high completion percentage.
That they don’t fall into an extreme makes their struggles all the odder. This team bleeds shot for fun, and they’re 70% worse than the average League One defense on xG terms. Bad set piece defending hasn’t helped the cause either. The Red Wolves have conceded four goals from dead balls, twice as many as any of their rivals.
Still, what’s up in the run of play? Even the best defense is going to face a few moments of discomfort in their own area. That’s just the game of soccer. Chattanooga struggled because they’re unusually disconnected in low block and especially prone to breakdowns.
A recent loss to Forward Madison illustrated the good and the bad. What you get above is the former, a well-handled transition play. Chattanooga starts with a turnover on the right and is quickly played through before they can counterpress. However, the doubled pivot of Ualefi and the recently-added Michael Knapp is wise to the Madison break. Their recovery steels the zone in front of the back four and allows for a stop.
That said, there are still warning signs. Chattanooga tends to press in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, and they rarely get much defensive quality out of their wingers. When Madison starts their move above, it easily isolates Owen Green at right back without much of a wide recovery. Yes, there’s a stop in the end, but access to zone 14 is frighteningly easy to attain for Chattanooga’s opponent.
Later in the match, of course, a comical goalmouth scramble would see the Red Wolves concede from just a few yards out. This team has a “Newton’s third law” dynamic in defense: every strong recovery is met by an equal and opposite breakdown. It’s small mistakes and momentary sloppiness that dooms Chattanooga again and again.
The wheels fell off entirely on Friday in an intra-state duel against Knoxville. The hosts - fresh off a coaching change and led by interim manager Ilija Ilic - slated Chattanooga and scored three goals in the first 30 minutes. Chattanooga conceded an eye-watering 4.1 xG, and that numbers was still a terrible 2.7 when you subtract out penalty concessions - themselves an indicator of undisciplined defending.
The play above starts somewhat similarly to the prior example against Madison. Green is caught far upfield this time, and Ualefi turns the ball over rather than gracefully getting back to halt a break. Chattanooga’s remaining three defenders ought to have a man advantage, but they’re backtracking and hewing to their left, allowing for a runner to cut against momentum and receive in an outside lane. It ought to be a goal for Knoxville.
Sure, One Knox feasted on set pieces, but they ate Chattanooga alive in the run of play as well. Again, you’re rarely getting two penalty kicks if you aren’t dominant across the board.
This Red Wolves team has a real ability to look competent and well-structured for long stretches, but that wasn’t the case against their Tennessean rivals. Whether they can rebound from the 4-1 loss and tighten up is the major question now with the playoffs still in sight. Progress is needed.
Recovering Richmond?
Fresh off extending Darren Sawatzky for the foreseeable future and just having broken a long winless streak, the Kickers are at an inflection point. They’re technically alive in the Jagermeister Cup, and they’re only four points out a League One playoff spot. That said, the advancement scenario in the cup is a narrow one, and the Kickers are four points off the league cutline with most of their competitors possessing games in hand.
The hope for Richmond was that Emiliano Terzaghi and Nathan Aune would give this team a post-injury injection of quality at midseason. Terzaghi has four goals in 11 appearances, though already-modest chance creation and dribbling numbers from 2023 have taken a dip.
Aune, meanwhile, has been exceptional at the back. His reintroduction has inspired occasional stabs at a back three, but it feels like the pairing of Aune with Griffin Garnett would be Plan A in a high-leverage match. That’s for good reason: now in his fourth year in Virginia, Aune is winning 75% of his tackles, 67% of his duels, and more headers per match than any other defender.
At the same time, the Kickers have put up wacky defensive numbers. In expected terms, this is a genuinely strong unit with a slight weakness on the counterattack. In actuality, Richmond has bled goals in the run of play and been solid against fast breaks.
Why the mix-up? Ryan Shellow and Pablo Jara have seven saves in break situations in League One action, the most of any club’s goalkeeping platoon. In open play across all competitions, however, Jara has conceded more goals above expected (5.95) than any other keeper in the division.
Disparity aside, the fact that Richmond has been so stout bodes well for their home stretch. If they can tighten up in net and keep improving in front of goal - no guarantee for a team that hasn’t scored twice in a match since July 3rd - there’s real potential at City Stadium. What’s the defense doing to set the table?
Since a disastrous rout against Northern Colorado where the Kickers conceded more than 3.0 xG, they’ve tightened up in a simple and solid defensive 4-4-2 or thereabouts; formation labels are dumb and variable. In any case, you see the shape above from the penalty win over Tormenta from a recent cup fixture.
In that shape, midfielder Chandler O’Dwyer would step out from the midfield, standing next to Terzaghi to give Richmond a two-on-two against the opposing center backs. The focus was on control more than takeaways. The dual forwards sought to divert Tormenta to the sidelines, and that four-man midfield line willingly dropped back to lock the gates around the final third.
It worked. South Georgia completed 89% of their passes, and they outdid Richmond by a whopping 201 completions. Even so, they were held to a minuscule 0.3 xG.
Meanwhile, the Kickers were successfully able to balance defensive structure with offensive quality. After recovering the ball, they shifted into an attacking 4-1-4-1 with O’Dwyer and Justin Sukow as dual No. 8s in possession. Yes, there was a sloppy turnover minutes into the game where the lone No. 6 got isolated, but he xG returns for Tormenta tell you the holistic story of a near-flawless outing.
Richmond’s setup was probably too cute by half early on against South Georgia. The tactical setup also featured a “Nil Vinyals on the left” thing that undercut the Spaniard’s best traits as a central distributor. To simplify, Sawatzky took O’Dwyer off at halftime, slid Vinyals back to the middle, and put Ryan Sierakowski on the wing to see things out.
The revised alignment recurred against Greenville this past Friday, and it held the typically fearsome Triumph to a mere 0.98 xG. You can see Greenville’s heatmap above, and it paints the picture of a team mostly limited to possession around the edges. There’s a little bubble of activity in the left channel because *hand waves* Lyam Mackinnon, but Richmond was otherwise pristine in their solid back-four shape.
Back-to-back games that ended 1-1 after regulation may not inspire maximal confidence, but Richmond feels like they’ve established strong base. If the defense remains solid, the Kickers might just have the firepower to turn their season around - and maybe win a League One playoff game for the first time in club history.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of Loudoun’s return to a 4-4-2 in a season sweep over Tampa Bay? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
All 24 USL Championship teams play this Saturday. God gives his toughest battles to his strongest soldiers, etc.
This year’s iteration of LouCity is the best team in the history of the USL. In a Championship that’s increasingly defined by parity and always improving, the fact that they’re this dominant is unreal. Danny Cruz is so, so good. We don’t give enough love to his tactical vision or his club’s player identification abilities - it goes deeper than the star additions like Taylor Davila, Arturo Ordonez, and Phillip Goodrum.
The Thing is better than Alien, but they’re both all-timers. Alien: Romulus is both poorly written and super fun, and the last 20ish minutes were pure sicko delight. Thus ends the “space body horror” session.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Sam Wasson/USSF