The Back Four: Playoff odds, youth, and more
The Back Four: Playoff odds, youth, and more
Tactics, stats, and other developments that stand out for Orange County, Madison, Memphis, and Charleston
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
Now, let’s get to it.
Orange County, playing the kids
If you missed it, Orange County signed yet another highly-touted youth prospect last week in the form of Pedro Guimaraes. A left-sided defender with flexibility to move higher up the wing, Guimaraes was highly considered within the LAFC system and earned an MLS NEXT All-Star nod early this season; some prospect experts considered him the gem of his class in LAFC’s academy. He has double-digit youth national team caps to boot.
It’s easy to be numb toward Orange County’s youth acquisition strategy by now, but it doesn’t make their successes any less remarkable. If you’re a burgeoning prospect who wants a fast track to pro minutes, OCSC is your preferred destination, bar none in the United States. That’s an unbelievable achievement by this club.
How have Guimaraes’ predecessors and the other U-23 stars on the Orange County fared this year? Quite well in terms of performance and minutes alike.
Four youngsters have stood. Owen Lambe, the most-used U-23 player in the entire USL, has been a rock at right back; he’s probably somewhere near the all-league conversation. Cameron Dunbar, a fellow LA Galaxy II alum like Lambe, has been more of a spot contributor on the left wing. Both are more finished products.
Bryce Jamison, now 18 years old, is the cream of the current crop and a likely target for European clubs in the near future. Jamison began 2024 somewhat slowly, but he’s started all but one game since the beginning of June - and he scored a crucial goal off the bench in the lone substitute appearance during that run.
Previously with the Barca Residency Academy and now three years into his professional run, Jamison has made major technical strides in the final third. At 6’0” tall and blessed with high-end speed, the winger has always possessed the physical gifts to contribute, and he did well on the dribble in space from the moment he hit a USL pitch. There’s now an added level of pay-off where it counts.
You get an example above, a throw-in play where Jamison chest a loose ball to control it before volleying it home. Two years ago, the Orange County starlet wouldn’t have been as decisive or confident in taking that shot. He now has the skills to make such opportunities look effortless.
The improvements are showing up in the numbers, where Jamison has made important leaps despite playing in a much less successful team year-over-year. In 2023, he scored just once on 18 tries even with the gravity of Milan Iloski complementing him from the opposite wing. This season, Jamison has four goals on 15 tries, good for a 26% conversion rate.
The teenager completed 65% of his passes on 34 touches per game last year, as compared to 78% on 36 touches now. Jamison’s interceptions and takeaways in the final third have seen slight bumps too. In almost every phase, the 18-year-old has become more active and more clinical.
Less ballyhooed but equally essential is Ashton Miles, a 19-year-old central defender. The product of Orange County’s own self-funded academy rather than an outside acquisition, Miles has only missed two matches all year after signing a pro deal this winter. He’s a fairly traditional central defender by archetype, one that - as shown - has good instincts for tracking runners and the mobility to back up his ideas.
Miles ranks in the 78th percentile of USL defenders for tackles and the 79th for interceptions. He’s done so on a 76% tackle success rate. While the teenager doesn’t project as an exceptional ball mover from the back, he’s already a starting-level center back in the Championship and will only get better as he matures physically in the next few years.
Not to be outdone, OCSC has also given cameos to players like 19-year-old Ryan Ayoub, 18-year-old Nicolas Ruiz, 18-year-old Marcus Lee, and 17-year-old Benjamin Barjolo. Ben Norris, another class of ‘06 prospect alongside Barjolo, started impressively a few weeks back in the central midfield.
That’s a hugely impressive slate, and it’ll only get better with Guimaraes in tow. No one is challenging OCSC as the USL’s premier developmental club any time soon.
Madison’s avenues
Fresh off a draw against Union Omaha, Forward Madison continues to fascinate as a team that’s finding their footing attack. With 24 expected goals this season, Madison ranks fourth-from-bottom in League One in terms of their offensive output. At the same time, their defense is elite, coming second in the division by allowed barely 1.0 xG per match. Bernd Schipmann has been incredible in net, powering a +12 goal difference in all competitions.
Defense wins championships, but you need to score to get over the line. How is Madison starting to overcome their inconsistency in possession?
If variety is the spice of life, then Madison hasn’t had much cayenne in the cupboard. Only five Mingos have more than 1.0 expected assists across all competitions, second-least in the division. Furthermore, only four Madison players average at least one key pass per 90 minutes, tied with Lexington for the lowest mark in the league.
Even so, a more settled 4-4-2 is generating better returns in recent weeks and finally manufacturing variety. Since the start of July, Matt Glaesar’s side has exceeded their xG average in four out of five games, evidence of the upswing.
Madison has been a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 team for the most part, and that isn’t going away as an option; see the recent loss against Northern Colorado. However, using Jake Crull as the left back in a 4-4-2 can replicate the upsides of that system with less of the drawbacks. In build, Crull can stay low and be the third man against the press, as we saw quite often against Omaha in a match where #16 took 19 more touches than any of his teammates.
Still, it’s a back four at heart. Crull and right back Stephen Payne retain the ability to simultaneously bomb upfield on the overlap. That’s the real point of variation, and it’s making Madison more of a threat.
You see the look here. Even though opposing Fuego is in a back three and presses with three forwards, Madison elects to confidently push Crull high - he’s barely on screen at the start of the clip. As #16 ascends, Derek Gebhard drops low from his left wing position, thereby attracting a defender and freeing space up ahead.
The result? A one-on-one over the top for Crull, who crosses into slicing runs from Christian Chaney and Juan Galindrez to put Madison on top.
Madison elects for caution in this second example, keeping Crull low against a better-organized Omaha press. The optionality here is crucial: Crull is low and makes so the Mingos are four-wide, and that challenges the three pressers. Omaha can’t find their spatial balance.
This time, Payne dribbles around the right side and laces a passes into the attacking half. It’s a break from there. Garrett McLaughlin, Galindrez, and Gebhard all go at the defense, with the latter attacker forcing a corner.
This is what you want to see if you’re Forward Madison. There’s tempo and intention, and you’re planting seeds of doubt in the opposing defense from back to front. The best teams can beat you in multiple ways, and Madison is doing so by maximizing unexpected defensive pieces like Jake Crull and Stephen Payne.
Metamorphosis in Memphis
I’ve been out over my skis about Memphis 901 for most of the season, making them a top-four team in my Backheeled power rankings a few weeks back at the height of the mania. That was an overeager move at the time, but I’m ready to double down once more - and for good reason.
No team in the league has done as much as Memphis to improve through the transfer market in the last month. By adding Jon Bakero, Triston Henry, and especially Panos Armenakas, 901 has grown deeper and straight-up better at key positions across the pitch. This club now has a wealth of riches where it counts, and they've got the potential to upgrade - or at least mix things up - stylistically.
On the face of things, Memphis’ first-choice lineup probably doesn’t look all that different. It’s the same old 4-2-3-1, just with a few new starters in the mix. In context, however, 901’s changes presage an upgrade in style.
Consider Henry in net. During his last two seasons in the Canadian Premier League, Henry won the Golden Glove twice over, but he did so while attempting only 4.8 long passes per 90 minutes. Tyler Deric averaged 19.4 such punts per game in his 20 starts this year. That’s a remarkable gap!
Now, Memphis isn’t about to become dogmatically reliant on short build, but we’re already starting to see the difference. Henry is averaging just 11 long balls per match in his two starts so far, and he’s regularly stepping out of his area to become a third defender by proxy in build - you see that in the screenshot above, where the goalie is seen taking up an outfield position like he’s Koke Vegas.
In doing so, Henry allows the defensive line to space wider and asks real questions of the opposing press. The entire El Paso match from last Saturday, albeit a nil-nil draw, was evidence of the changes. As a team, Memphis went long on 8% of their pass attempts versus an 18% clip for the year, and they won the possession battle.
If 901 wants to build from the back and hit attacking players at their feet, they’ve got the personnel to do so. Consider Bakero. An attacking mid during his Phoenix days, he’s essentially played as a false No. 9 in Memphis. Bakero has focused on linking action rather than flooding the box.
Armenakas is the more interesting proposition. After signing from Phoenix Rising last week, the 26-year-old played 36 minutes off the bench in his Memphis debut. In that short time span, Armenakas created two big chances, beat opponents on the dribble twice, and looked like the creative presence this team has sorely lacked on the left wing.
A few players have held down the left side in 2024, including Dylan Borczak, Nighte Pickering, and Noe Meza. Combine them across 2,000 minutes, and they lose out to Armenekas in every major creative category. The new signing has more key passes and as many successful dribbles as that trio in half the time, and he’s done so with superior passing accuracy and dribbling success.
Signing Panos Armenakas is the logical next step to the experimentation we’ve previously seen on that wing. Memphis played around with a new look last month when they shunted Emerson Hyndman out to the left. I rather liked Hyndman’s heft there, and the former USMNT prospect has been game to fill whatever attacking role Glass has asked of him. Still, he’s no Armenakas.
When 901 subbed on the ex-Rising man in tandem with Marlon and Bruno Lapa, the results were instantaneous and incredibly fun to watch. If, as I suspect, that trio becomes the week-in and week-out core for a more possessive Memphis team, the West should be on watch.
Charleston’s defense
Nick Markanich is the sun around which all of the USL orbits these days, and for good reason. He’s scoring at a ridiculous rate, galvanizing the Charleston Battery to continued success even in the face of an extended absence for Aaron Molloy.
What you might not recognize about Markanich is his defensive effort. The winger ranks in the 78th percentile for defensive actions at his position. He’s won 32 tackles, second-most on the team, and has attempted a whopping 304 duels to lead all Battery players.
That effort is par for the course within Ben Pirmann’s 4-2-3-1, a shape that’s proved eminently organized and incredibly hard to break down all season long. In terms of energy and structure, you couldn’t ask for better.
American Soccer Analysis allows you to examine how teams perform in certain phases and locations; you see Charleston’s G+ against mapped out going from left (the attacking side for the Battery) to right (Adam Grinwis or Christian Garner’s net) above. The graphic underlines how the Battery have excelled.
For one, Charleston doesn’t allow opponents to receive the ball in advantageous positions in the midfield or in their own half. They stop build in its tracks by keeping a tight shape in the press.
Charleston also doesn’t allow opponents to play dangerous passes in the middle or the final third. When they allow receptions (i.e., when the press is broken), those sequences don’t turn into chances for the opposition.
If you’re looking for a reason why the Battery have allowed just 20 goals in 23 matches, the second-best mark in the USL, you’ve got the statistical grounding. What does that look like in practice?
Here, Charleston sits in a mid-to-low block against an Indy team that always goes long on goal kicks. To fend off that approach, the Battery stay compact within their 4-2-3-1 shape, compressing the potential room for a knockdown or second ball that Indy might claim.
Because the pass soars over the midfield, Leland Archer steps up to contest. Archer, now in his seventh season in the Lowcountry, hasn’t missed a beat all year. Both he and Graham Smith have played more than 1,950 minutes in the back line, and they’ve combined to win more than 70% of their 162 aerial duels.
After Archer clears with his head, Emilio Ycaza chases the ball and steps from the pivot to push action out of the Battery zone. By the time Indy can settle back in their own half, their receiver is already under fire by Juan Torres - the energetic complement to Markanich on the left wing.
No matter the phase of play, Charleston is both structured and intense. Few teams in the USL are as well-drilled, and that’s a massive credit to Pirmann. It’s the unsung reason that such a high-flying team continues to challenge at the top of the table.
Playoff Odds
To anyone who scrolled straight down here, skipping the actual writing: I don’t like it, but I respect it. In any event, here’s a look at the races in the East, the West, and League One.
Louisville has a full game’s worth of padding atop the East, though it’s a two-team race. Loudoun has rightfully risen up to a playoff spot, but Pittsburgh is hot on their tail; the Riverhounds have more than doubled their playoff odds in a matter of four weeks. The less said about Miami, the better. They’re projected to get five points for the entire rest of the season, and that’s if they’re lucky.
I once again feel the need to apologize to New Mexico, who falls into a specific trap within my model: they use too many players and rotate too often. The system is based on player-by-player grading that gets summed up at a team level. Even controlling for minutes played, those grades tend to be lower if you’ve had less time on the field. Because New Mexico’s midfield and back lines are so fluid, it penalizes them unfairly as a whole. Elsewhere in the West, we’ve got five teams in hot contention for two spots on the edge of the postseason.
League One is extremely bifurcated between six legit contenders and six also-rans. It’s almost like six was a very good size for the playoff field! Lower down, a flagging Spokane is holding on by a thread, and Central Valley has bounced up from the 0% odds mark. Anything could happen in the race for the eighth seed.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for discussion of San Antonio being bad? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
Tormenta and Spokane playing at 11 AM on Sunday morning because of weather delays is the best thing in the world. Shoutout to Peyton Gallaher for holding it down.
I’ve resigned myself to the fact that Phoenix Rising might be cooked, but I love what Diego Gomez is doing with their shape. Pushing one of your defenders way up into the midfield (a la Emil Cuello as a dual left back/No. 10) is catnip for me, even if this team can’t reach coherence in the final third.
You can find the clip on Twitter, but it was a real “Leo DiCaprio pointing at the TV” moment when Joe Malfa mentioned my USL Top 50 piece live on the Sacramento-Pittsburgh broadcast on ESPN2.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Liza Rosales