The Back Four: Playoff Odds, Best XI, and more

Wrapping up the end of the USL regular season

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled!

Now, let’s get to it.

USL Championship Best XI

Which USL players stood out as the best at their positions in 2024? You’ll often see a “Best XI” going for a spate of attacking-minded players, but I’m trying to create a relatively legitimate lineup. In the process, I’m also weighing team success; doing well for a competitive club means more and deserves extra adulation.

And a quick note on shape: I’m going for a formation that fits as many deserving players as possible. I toyed with a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, but the depth of options in the central areas swayed me toward a 3-5-2. Now, back to the regularly scheduled programming.

Wilson Harris (FW, Louisville)

Honorable Mention: Johnny Rodriguez (FW, Oakland)

With 19 goals, Wilson Harris is an obvious all-league choice because of scoring alone. Throw in his perpetually intelligent movement, 0.7 final third recoveries per game, and the variety of those finishes, and the LouCity striker becomes more impactful still. The 24-year-old has been a solid USL No. 9 for years, but he took the leap this season.

Nick Markanich (FW, Charleston)

I’ve waxed poetic about Nick Markanich at length, and I gave him my MVP vote on the official league ballot. Markanich literally played the greatest season in league history, no holds barred. Beyond the record-setting 28 goals, Markanich is a dogged worker in defensive recovery and an improving creator. He’s undeniable.

Maxi Rodriguez (AM, Detroit)

Honorable Mention: Jack Blake (AM, Indy)

Maxi Rodriguez scored seven of his 10 goals this year between March and June while playing high upfield in Danny Dichio’s season-starting back four system. I’d argue that his contributions from the pivot, even with much less scoring on display, have been entirely more important to Detroit since then.

Rodriguez ranks in the 71st percentile among all midfielders for defensive actions, and he isn’t even Detroit’s primary destroyer. He has 15 goal contributions, but he isn’t a forward. No midfielder in the league matches Maxi’s guile as a mover without the ball. Forget “jack of all trades, master of none,” because Rodriguez does everything for Detroit City.

Taylor Davila (CM, Louisville)

Honorable Mention: Elijah Wynder (CM, Louisville)

Choosing between Louisville center mids was like pulling teeth, but Taylor Davila gets the nod. Davila ranked in the 96th percentile of all midfielders for expected assists, and he also made a whopping 201 ball recoveries. His clean passing and otherworldly ball retention allow LouCity to tilt the pitch and operate quickly and dangerously within the final third. Everything Taylor Davila does brings his teammates into the game.

JC Ngando (CM, Las Vegas)

Honorable Mention: Tommy McCabe (CM, Loudoun)

JC Ngando is the USL leader in “wow, he’s way too good for this league” moments per 90 minutes. Ngando led all center mids in successful dribbles in 2024, evidencing his ability to keep the ball on a leash at his feet. His incredible two-footed retention allows for progressive carriage up the middle of Las Vegas’ 4-2-4, and it’s matched by incisive passing in the final third to the tune of five assists. Ngando is simply tremendous.

Ezra Armstrong (WB, North Carolina)

Honorable Mention: Akeem Ward (LB, Memphis)

Part of my all-league equation is considering how important a player is to their team’s system. Ezra Armstrong, who picked up five goals and six assists as a wing back, passes that test with flying colors. North Carolina’s goal difference was a full 1.4 goals better per 90 minutes with Armstrong on the field this year. The left-sider has the speed to be a one-man counterattack, but he’s a willing defender in recovery at the same time. You can’t miss him when you watch North Carolina’s 5-2-3 in action.

Graham Smith (CB, Charleston)

Honorable Mention: Carlos Guzman (CB, Monterey)

Graham Smith is in the 80th percentile or better for his tackle win rate, aerial win rate, aerial wins per game, and clearances per game. Charleston is a fairly dominant possession team, but when they need a defensive intervention, Smith is always there. He’s a clean passer as well, one that can set the tempo from the back (see 1,800+ total completions), hit a switch (4.5 long completions per game), and slide into the middle of a proxy back three if need be. Smith is deeply overlooked for the Battery.

Arturo Ordonez (CB, Louisville)

Honorable Mention: Talen Maples (CB, New Mexico)

Arguing that a third guy is definitional for Louisville is giving “boy who cried wolf” vibes, but whatever: Arturo Ordonez is that good. The centermost defender in his team’s back three, Ordonez put up 3.5 aerial wins and 1.5 interceptions per game this season. The numbers indicate his ability to repel opponents on the back foot or aggressively deny them while pushing ahead. He’s nimble defending counterattacks, and he’s smart about picking spots to take risks as a passer. Throw in 29 shot attempts - more than any other center back - as evidence of his set piece majesty, and you wouldn’t want anyone else as Louisville’s backstop.

Matt Mahoney (CB, Colorado Springs)

My personal pick for Defender of the Year, Matt Mahoney is the only outfield player in the USL not to miss a minute in 2024. Mahoney led all players in total passes with a number well above 2,000, and he set the tone with his progressive carrying and composed ball handling at the back. Colorado Springs uses one of the higher-placed line in the league out of the press, and Mahoney - who led the Championship with 67 interceptions - largely holds the system together. Almost no defender takes away the ball at the halfway line more often, much less redistribute as quickly it to spark the attack.

Jack Gurr (WB, Sacramento)

Honorable Mention: Owen Lambe (RB, Orange County)

With eight assists and a league-high 181 crosses, Jack Gurr continues to be the best right-sided weapon out there. Sacramento scored 1.5 goals per 90 minutes with Gurr on the pitch and 0.8 with him out of the game; that’s a massive gulf, and you could feel the difference at the end of the 2024 regular season when the 28-year-old went down injured. I’m underselling the wing back’s defense brilliance as well, as Gurr’s end-to-end recoveries continued to drop jaws. Jack Gurr earned my MVP vote last year, and he’s still at that level of impact.

Renan Ribeiro (GK, Hartford)

Honorable Mention: Danny Vitiello (GK, Sacramento)

You can point to a few reasons for Hartford’s late-season glow-up, but the continuing excellence of Renan Ribeiro in net was the reason they came on strong into the fall. The 34-year-old, signed from the Middle East over the winter, has lapped the competition this year by preventing more than 9.0 goals against expected. His parries tended to aim in useful, pressure-relieving directions, and his 40% completion rate on long passes was one of the best among USL goalies. Renan Ribeiro may be the most valuable (with a small “V”) player to their club anywhere in the league.

Playoff Odds!

It’s postseason time again, which means it’s also time for playoff odds. To calculate the percentages, I’m using actual points earned, expected projections based on my usual modelling, and a minor homefield advantage bump to pit clubs against one another.

For a full breakdown of the Championship matchups, I’ll have a piece up on Backheeled later this week. My League One preview will be on Substack soon as well.

Let’s start in the USL Championship’s Eastern Conference. Louisville City is the strongest favorite in the first round, but my model always likes North Carolina and doesn’t think it’s a guaranteed win for the hosts. These teams just played to a wild 6-4 scoreline a few weeks back, after all. Elsewhere, Rhode Island is the only Eastern upset on the cards, and they’re a fairly heavy favorite against Indy. Given that Khano Smith’s side enters the playoffs on a six-game unbeaten run with a plus-12 goal difference during that stretch, there’s a reason RIFC is a trendy upset choice.

In the West, Sacramento is given a handy advantage over Las Vegas. A lot will depend on Jack Gurr’s availability there, and the Lights did just beat the Republic in September; I’d expect a close game. If you’re looking for an away upset, watch out for a sneaky Phoenix Rising team as they head to the Lab. Phoenix beat New Mexico in Albuquerque very recently, and New Mexico has slumped late-on to end the regular season.

League One plays out with minimal drama. Omaha and NoCo are the two heaviest favorites of the entire first round, while Madison and Greenville are slimmer picks to advance. That Greenville-Knoxville duel is the closest matchup out there, with the Triumph enjoying a mere 51% chance of advancing. Everyone in League One has played each other…checks notes…like 15 times already, so there’s plenty of tape to scout these matchups.

Will these numbers bear out? Probably not! The playoffs are chaos, and that’s why they’re fun.

Final(ish) attendance

With a handful of matches still outstanding, we’re almost entirely up to date with the USL’s attendance report for the year. The big headline number is that the league surpassed a total attendance of 2,000,000 once again, resulting in a leaguewide average of 5,242 fans per match. That’s a 7% decrease from 2023’s number, which is noteworthy but not terribly worrisome in the grand scheme of things.

Still, what explains the drop? As I’ve written about before, trading in San Diego and Rio Grande Valley - two clubs that averaged attendance marks around 4,500 - for lesser-drawing Rhode Island and North Carolina made a dent in the mean. Big drops from Birmingham (a net loss of 1,255 per match) and El Paso (788) also mattered in the middle; both clubs saw their fortunes crater on the pitch, and that probably isn’t a coincidence. Miami and Las Vegas being more honest with their reporting was a factor to boot.

Yes, there were drops, but the 7% headline number isn’t as bad as it might seem.

Charleston and Loudoun deserve praise for generating the two biggest increases in the USL. No one did better than the Battery, who upped their average by 583 in absolute terms and enjoyed the Championship’s biggest percentage leap. Loudoun continues to thrive under their non-DC United ownership as well, having climbed by 255 fans per game year-over-year.

What about next season? In terms of expansion teams, there may be a downward effect. Brooklyn is drawing just 500 people a game to Rocco Commisso Stadium on the Super League side, but that’s an alternative venue in the furthest corner of Manhattan. Moving to Coney Island, where the New York Cosmos once drew 4,800 fans every night, will help. On the “promotion” side, Lexington regularly reports sub-2,000 totals, but an all-in marketing pitch based around their new stadium and new league is sure to come.

On the bright side. Rhode Island is due for a big leap as they open up a new soccer-specific venue in Pawtucket. Tampa Bay will rise as well; their average was adversely impacted by their two Bradenton games that drew totals in the low hundreds. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Post Mortems, Part III

Another week, another batch of eliminated clubs. This time around, I’ll be taking a quick retrospective look at the Eastern Conference left-behinds. Without further ado…

Birmingham Legion

Projected: 10th, East | Actual: 9th, East

I was surprised to see how negative my model was on Birmingham in the preseason, because this team had decent vibes coming into 2024. Mohamed Buya Turay and Stefano Pinho were answers at the No. 9 spot. Kobe Hernandez-Foster and Dawson McCartney looked like solid midfield adds. AJ Paterson would help to inaugurate a new back three under Tommy Soehn.

It didn’t play out that way in practice. The midfield signings hit to a stellar degree, but the back three was abandoned before the spring was out. Turay went “face on the side of a milk carton” levels of missing, and Pinho was good (nine goals to lead the Legion) but started only about half the time. Soehn never seemed to settle on one path forward.

I’ve discussed Birmingham’s passivity quite often this year, and the numbers bear out the fact that the Legion sat off in the press and meandered on the ball. Only two teams were less effective at winning the ball back upfield. Only two teams were less direct in their passing. This Birmingham side was too content to absorb danger in their 4-1-4-1 for 60 minutes until a substitute changed the face of the match.

This offseason will be fascinating to watch play out. Soehn is likely on the hot seat, for one. You couldn’t have asked for a more successful first hire if you’re the Legion organization; Soehn has been an incredible steward since this club’s expansion campaign. That said, it may be time for a refresh - one that’ll impact stalwarts like Prosper Kasim, who fell out of the rotation late in 2024.

Hartford Athletic

Projected: 6th, East | Actual: 10th, East

For the first time in ages, the vibes in Hartford are actually solid. That won’t take the sting out of a final-week failure to make the playoffs, but it’s a heck of a lot better than a historically bad 2023.

Brendan Burke brought in a lot of his guys over the offseason, and players like Michee Ngalina and Joey Farrell were unabashed hits. Romario Williams, Enoch Mushagalusa, Jay Chapman, and Rece Buckmaster? Not so much, and all four were either sold or loaned out in short order. The end (near playoff qualification) justified the means (ruthless squad-building), but the machinations left Hartford thin all the same by the time October hit.

When the improvement finally arrived - Hartford only lost three time after July 20th - it relied on two key things: grit in the central midfield and Renan Ribeiro. If you read the “Best XI” segment above, you’ll be familiar with Ribeiro, who ought to be the Goalkeeper of the Year. Hartford gave up the third-most shots in the USL (245) even after that red-letter date in July, and Ribeiro kept them whole in the process.

What of the midfield? Wing play was never an issue, but the early preference for Chapman and Anderson Asiedu as a pivot behind the very attack-first Marcus Epps didn’t pan out. It took the rise of Beverly Makangila as a proper No. 6 and the entrance of veterans like Danny Barrera and Marlon Hairston as more box-to-box types ahead of him to do the job. You could feel this team grow stabler and better able to pick up second balls when using the Makangila-Barrera-Hairston trio.

Heading into 2025, a core is in place. You’d figure Ribeiro, Ngalina, and most of the midfield will be back. Mamadou Dieng (11 goals as a rookie) was one of the breakout stars of the second half, and he won’t even turn 21 until partway through next year. Burke needs to get the offseason right in a way he didn’t the first time around to support them, but the stage is set for a belated return to playoff action.

Loudoun United

Projected: 11th, East | Actual: 11th, East

At a certain point, being the plucky underdog loses its luster. During their DC United era and in the early days under new ownership, Loudoun hadn’t been able to overcome that “oh, aren’t they nice?” condescension in reaction to their success. Missing the playoffs again is frustrating, but 2024 felt like the year Loudoun shrugged off the old yoke and competed.

Identifying what went wrong is a tricky question. Not much? Momentary failings doomed Ryan Martin and co. in the end. Hugo Fauroux (2.3 goals prevented, 90+ saves) had a fantastic year in net and more than earned the right to play every regular season minute, but a few early-season mistakes cost him dearly in hindsight. Kwame Awuah (one of two Loudoun players with 30+ chances created) was stellar on the left side, but a few lacking defensive recoveries were lethal. This offense underperformed its xG by about five goals during September and October.

Like Hartford, Loudoun’s path to the playoffs in 2025 feels obvious. Most of this core will probably end up returning under Martin. You can bank on continuing improvement from players like Abdellatif Aboukoura - or literally bank a transfer fee for the 20-year-old creator and spend thereafter. The system in place is strong, and this club’s recruitment is always considerate.

It’s easy to forget that Loudoun began the year in a back four before landing on the 3-4-3 as something like a Plan B, and whether Martin sticks to the new shape or not will inform the offseason strategy. I’ll be curious to see how ambitious Loudoun gets as well. I don’t think this lineup is that far away, but adding one or two genuine stars could lift all ships in a major way. This club’s offseason may be the most fascinating in the Championship.

Threads!

Here’s a backlog of game recaps. Go read Backheeled for the full scope of analysis; I only did the playoff deciders on Twitter because I need a weekend sometimes. I’ve got five articles and four podcast appearances on the docket this week, so you can find takes everywhere.

• Tampa Bay - Hartford (10/23)

• Charleston - Loudoun (10/26)

• Pittsburgh - El Paso (10/26)

• North Carolina - Las Vegas (10/26)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Lexington moving on from Darren Powell and moving him into an academy role is the best choice for all parties. Though Lexington finished in ninth, just three points back of the playoffs, they only escaped a last-place spot on the final day. Powell never lit the USL on fire in a previous stop with San Antonio, and a fresh take can lift this team as they hop divisions.

• So, welcome to Phoenix, Pa-Modou Kah! Having the news break just before the playoffs begin makes Diego Gomez the lamest of lame ducks, but I do like the hire. Go see my main man Owain Evans’ take for a better summary.

• Thanks to y’all for reading the newsletter this year. This whole endeavor is a lot of work, as it turns out! Soccer blogging comes alongside trying to have a (minimal) social life, on top of the full-time career that earns me the salary to…ya know…have food on the table.

  That said, I find this project really rewarding. There are stretches where I feel like I’m shouting into the wind, but y’all make it worth it. To the coaches and technical staff folks that subscribe, I appreciate it more than you know. The fact that people who have real say - multiple coaches from every pro league! - are tuning in is incredible. To the fans who just want to see their team covered, your support matters to an equal degree. I love covering this dumb league, and if I’m helping to grow it in some small way, that’s a delight. Thanks again for the clicks, subscriptions, messages, and all that jazz.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!