The Back Four: Phoenix's style and more
Tactics, stats, and other developments that defined the week for Phoenix, Oakland, Lexington, and Tormenta
Welcome in to The Back Four, where I’m diving into four things drawing my eye from across the USL. For a full recap of the week that was, hit up Backheeled for in-depth coverage of every Championship club and check out my Indy and Charleston pieces on here. With that said, let’s get to it.
Rising in the press
Juan Guerra’s Phoenix teams pressed high, using a 3-4-3 shape to wreak havoc while out of possession. Danny Stone, by contrast, has preferred a more conservative style for most of 2024.
You can point to a few things - lacking off-ball movement, inconsistent finishing, etc. - as problems for Rising so far, but the press or lack thereof has been especially stark. Whether in a Guerra-esque 3-4-3 or an innovative 4-2-3-1, this club has been noticeably meeker this season.
Coming into the weekend, Phoenix’s press ranked below average in almost every sector of the pitch. Using American Soccer Analysis’ interrupting data as a proxy for gainful pressure (as above), it became clear that Rising weren’t executing off the ball.
Why has that been the case? Losing players like Manuel Arteaga, a talented defensive presence at the striker spot, or Carlos Harvey, the sort of No. 8 who can backstop aggression, mattered. Stone probably didn’t want to risk disunion and structural weakness so early into his reign. New pick-ups like Edgardo Rito and Juan Azocar can be caught upfield in transition and undermine such a system.
No matter what you blame, the conclusion was consistent: Phoenix hadn’t been a pressing team.
In a 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago, Rising held a midfield line a few yards above the center circle. Though they started in a 4-2-3-1, one of the defensive midfielders usually stepped higher into a 4-1-4-1 to match the Riverhounds’ double pivot.
Phoenix didn’t know when to trap on the wings. Using either Jose Hernandez or Renzo Zambrano as a high-stepper from the pivot could inadvertently open lanes down the middle. Higher up, Remi Cabral might as well have been useless at striker: he was easy to pass around, having been charged with covering two center backs and a goalkeeper.
By contrast, Stone took his team back into a 3-4-3 in Rhode Island and upped the pressure in the early stages. The shift could be transformational.
Rather than always press with three forwards, the Rising manager introduced variation to his scheme. You see it above: Phoenix adopts a 4-4-2 shape with the left side dropping low and the right coming high. Emil Cuello (a forward) and Azocar (a wing back) drop a level on the left, while Edgardo Rito moves into the midfield on the right.
A few factors influenced the shift. For one, Rhode Island’s left-sided defender, Gabriel Alves, was a better and more accurate passer than his right-sided counterpart, Karifa Yao. By pushing Rito and Panos Armenakas up, Phoenix could corral Alves. The dynamic wasn’t entirely one-sided: Cuello was allowed to press into a front three when play moved to his side.
Indeed, Cuello was responsible for pressing to force a turnover and creating a decisive opening goal for Phoenix. He likewise earned the adulation of Nicholas Murray for his defensive efforts. That’s the exact sort of grit that explains why you put #14 into the lineup.
Phoenix deserves massive credit for the way they defended in a low-block 5-4-1 to see things out, but the conservatism was only possible because of the lead earned in the press. Stone made the perfect personnel decisions and the right tactical tweaks to get the job done. His aggressive gameplan ought to be a template going forward.
Post-Delgado Oakland
I had already determined to do a blurb on Oakland’s attack this week, focusing on the usage of Jeciel Cedeno and Johnny Rodriguez in attack with Dom Dwyer joining the club.
Then Noah Delgado got fired.
I’m mixed on the coaching change. On an xG basis, Oakland is a top-eight team in the West. They’re one point out of the playoffs. No, the performances haven’t been impressive by any stretch, but there are extenuating factors at play.
Few teams have been as negatively impacted by player absences, though you can fault Delgado for allowing a discipline-light atmosphere to foment in regard to the fighting suspensions against Monterey. Still, international call-ups have been both unavoidable and debilitating. Moreover, Paul Blanchette - the core of the Roots’ historical upswings - has been poor to start this year. Those factors aspects aren’t wholly on Delgado.
The clubs’ moves this winter were too focused on re-building a perfectly good defense without addressing a lacking midfield. It’s unclear if the misses fall on Delgado’s shoulders or if someone like technical director (and ex-coach) Jordan Farrell was culpable. Either way, the coaching job in the East Bay in 2024 was never going to be an easy one.
Still, it’s inarguable that the Roots haven’t been up to par in attack in particular; they’re a bottom-five offense in xG terms. Delgado has been too hesitant to deviate from a well-worn tactical system.
All that said, it’s clear that the struggles aren’t because of Rodriguez and Cedeno. Their inability to thrive in 2024 is a symptom of the larger ills.
In almost every category - passes, chances created, shooting, scoring - the twosome have trended downward this year. Rodriguez and Cedeno’s impact has undeniably lessened, largely because the Oakland 3-4-3 can’t build into the duo with any modicum of control or regularity.
In 2023, Danny Barbir and Emrah Klimenta were two of the strongest ball-carrying defenders in the league. Their marauding moves into attack would bend opposing shapes and open angles into the forward line, circumventing the midfield. This year’s defensive corps has the same ability: Camden Riley is better than Klimenta in possession, and Justin Rasmussen - a natural left back with central size - can approximate Barbir. Niall Logue is a wonderful passer. Nevertheless, we’ve rarely seen any hint of that upside because of squad choices and injuries.
I don’t want to harp too much on the central midfield, but…it’s really bad. Daniel Gomez and Irakoze Donasiyano can be incredibly useful shuttlers in the right context, doing good business to keep the ball moving or to put in stops behind a proper creator. I’d die for Neveal Hackshaw, but he’s not a deep-lying string-puller. They don’t sing as a group, no matter the permutation.
This year, in terms of passing contributions from that trio, we’re looking at:
Gomez: 19th percentile xA, 21st percentile forward passing share
Donasiyano: 22nd percentile xA, 14th percentile forward passing share
Hackshaw: 13th percentile xA, 67th percentile forward passing share
It’s just not good enough, and it allows defenses to sit back and focus on Oakland’s real points of offensive danger.
When the Roots have got the ball into the final third or forged counterattacks, it’s come from long balls or wide combination play. Too often, however, the sequences to get there have been laboriously slow and left Cedeno and Rodriguez virtually unsupported.
Take three examples above to that end. You’ve got a look against Detroit with Rodriguez running centrally and Cedeno in the right channel to start, but it flames out. The cross is a hard one to handle, there isn’t support at the far post to ask questions, and it’s all too easy for the Michiganders to deal with.
The next play comes on the break, with Cedeno on the left and Rodriguez central again. #22 laces in an outside-of-the-boot ball on his right foot, but #17 is on an island with two center backs bearing down. Oakland doesn’t have a second runner to ask questions and prevent the clamping onto Rodriguez.
Finally, you get an example where Rodriguez gloms onto a poorly-headed loft. #17 does well to corral the ball and dish it to a supporting runner as Cedeno streaks at net like a striker. The problem? The receiver in the channel fumbles the bag, and the chance dissipates.
Take that final clip, and imagine if it’s Dom Dwyer making the recovery and Rodriguez receiving the ball on the right. As Mark Wahlberg once said, it wouldn't have went down like it did.
Gavin Glinton ought to re-format this team around two principles: more engaged creation in the central midfield and more freedom of movement for Rodriguez and Cedeno underneath Dwyer. The first point may be a non-starter because of this squad, but the second is eminently doable.
Now, Dwyer only has four goals in 38 games from the 2020 season onward, and he sat out all of 2023. He’s not going to be Wilson Harris or Ottar Magnus Karlsson. Still, he’s an improvement on Miche-Naider Chery, and he’ll hopefully bring the strikerly instinct to help make the Roots start to click as they enter their new era.
Lackadaisical Lexington
Two men down and having been outshot and outplayed, Lexington got a Jaegermeister Cup winner deep into added time against Madison on Sunday against all odds. It may be the galvanizing moment this club needs amidst a sluggish start to 2024.
This team, so vaunted by preseason prognosticators, has been uniquely feckless on the ball thus far. Lexington has scored five times in six USL League One games to date, and they’re dead last with 0.93 xG per game. It’s no coincidence that they’ve won just once in the league with a minus-five goal difference.
Lexington’s offensive profile defies convention. They run a 4-4-2 on the ball, preferring a staid structure in possession. They’re one of the shortest-passing teams in the league, ranking third-from-bottom with an average of 6.4 yards per completion.
Still, for a team that jilts long, direct patterns, Lexington is rather inaccurate. Per American Soccer Analysis’ metrics, Lexington is the least accurate passing team in League One against expectation. A club like Charlotte has a lower completion percentage in pure terms, but they invite that risk by being a route-one offense. Darren Powell’s unit ought to be pinpoint given their profile.
What’s the deal?
For much of this season, the Kentuckians have operated in tight spaces, passing into sharp angles crowded with players. That sort of play requires ample skill to get the job done.
In the example above, Tate Robertson tucks narrow from his right wing spot in the 4-4-2, joined by Yannik Yankam from the pivot and a low-sweeping Isaac Cano from the forward line to create a trio. Meanwhile, Spokane compresses on the ball-carrying Christian Lue Young at right back, but there’s enough daylight to work the ball to Cameron Lancaster ahead of the crowd.
Lancaster lays off to Yankam, but that’s where the necessary tempo comes back to bite. #8 quickly tries to hit Cano, but his ball is behind the receiver. Though the LouCity loanee collects, he’s out of his flow, and the ensuing through ball back to Lancaster runs into no-man’s land and to mortally stifle the offensive sequence.
There’s lots of lovely movement and quick thinking, but the execution is a few steps behind.
You get two more motivating screenshots from the Madison game here to that same end. Yes, Lexington got the win, but the same possessive issues recurred.
The example on the left features Young on the ball with Yankam and Robertson in the interior; it’s a familiar setup. Still, there isn’t enough movement to support a sequence like that in the clip. With no lane into the upfield pair, another Lexington player must show low as an outlet for Young - that’s how you maintain tempo. No one does what’s needed.
In the example on the right, striker Azaad Liadi - who moved with intention and brightness before an early injury - shows into the right channel in combination with Young. Madison tracks the forward with a marking defender, and that ought to open up a lane, but there’s an issue: Yankam isn’t making a run over the top to fill in, and Robertson isn’t even in frame because he’s sitting so deep.
Lexington don’t have their relationships and patterns down yet, and their passing game has suffered because of it. I’m still quite high on what Powell and co. can build here, but there needs to be more verve and variety in short order to rescue the effort in the league.
Tormenta’s tweaks
Ian Cameron is South Georgia Tormenta through and through, dating back to the club’s PDL days and his run managing their second team. That tenure has typically seen Tormenta running a 4-2-3-1 shape, but we’re finally seeing evolution from Cameron and co. as of late.
The results haven’t exactly been sterling so far (see a 3-0 loss to Greenville and a penalty kick loss to Charlotte), but the process that’s in place looks more and more impressive as the minutes go by.
Now, the changes may just be matchup-centric. Greenville and Charlotte are time-tested back three teams, so Cameron could’ve just been seeking out tactical parity. I’m buying into the idea of something bigger: the new look makes a lot of sense if you want to maximize the talent on this 2024 roster.
You see the new dynamic in action above. The first play starts with a dink to defender Callum Stretch on the right, who has an interior angle into star offseason addition Conor Doyle in the pivot. With Doyle attracting Greenville’s wing back and No. 10, there’s room to play in winger Ajmeer Spengler to lead a break further ahead. That’s three lines of players quickly moving onward and upward.
Same idea in the second sequence from the Charlotte game. It’s Daniel Steedman rather than Doyle coming free in the pivot, but he still seeks out Spengler, and the end result is still a through ball to wing back Nick Akoto on the overlap.
Tormenta’s back three allows them to leverage a wide-spread defensive line rife with strong passers who are skillful enough to access the midfield on the ground. When those interior passes hit, defenses overextend and free up weapons like Spengler in the half spaces. It’s a lovely marriage of shape and personnel.
Akoto stars in both examples above for good reason: he’s been excellent in the league so far. Though he only has one assist to his name, he ranks in the 71st percentile at his position for xA and in the 94th percentile by my Goals Above Replacement value metric.
The dynamic on the left is even more exciting. I wax poetic about Preston Kilwien’s passing on a bi-monthly basis, and those skills are maximized in this back three set-up. Jackson Khoury, a Lebanese international, has played left wing back opposite Akoto in the new shape, where he’ll be an elite wide threat fresh off a seven-goal, six-assist campaign in 2023.
If you’re playing against a front three, you’re creating ample problems when you hinge into a 3-2-5. One read in that vein is seen above. We saw that against the Independence.
In the screenshot example, the pressing winger for Charlotte is trapped: either he commits inside to a center mid, thereby allowing Stretch to carry the ball from the right side of the back three, or he closes down on Stretch and opens a cutback into the pivot.
You cry: “But John! Just send a center mid upfield to mark Doyle and Steedman! Then there’ll be no outlets!”
Yeah? In doing so, you allow Stretch to dink a ball over the top into the attacking midfield duo of Spengler and Pedro Fonseca between the lines. Charlotte’s approach of sitting lower and focusing on the attacking midfield rather than the pivot was a sound one, but it shows how Tormenta is creating catch-22s. There simply aren’t good answers when Tormenta is at their peak.
Regularly replicating those peak sequences is the goal now: this team hasn’t been consistent enough in their short time in the new back three. Still, the potential for Tormenta with an extra weapon in their arsenal is genuinely exciting.
Threads!
I post too much, so here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for coverage of the Sacramento-Loudoun game? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show.
Final Thoughts
Some other stray items on my mind…
🦝💿 (this is both a great emoji set and a link to a Nicholas Murray article)
I know I said it recently, and it may be apparent in the Tormenta chunk, but it’s insane how the Charlotte Independence get absolutely blitzed every week and keep treading water because of Austin Pack.
Don’t look now, but the Rowdies have a better xG margin than LouCity despite the former stealing the headlines. Y’all are sleeping, but you could wake up by checking out The Unused Substitutes or RBLR Rowdies.
See you soon!