The Back Four: League One semifinals, Marc Ybarra, and more odds

Takeaways from the second week of USL Championship and League One playoff action

Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled!

Now, let’s get to it.

Marc Ybarra, Guy of the Round

Clay Holstad scores thunderbolts from range. Zach Herivaux pops up in the left half space to do damage in possession. Behind them both, Marc Ybarra rounds out Rhode Island’s midfield by doing the subtle things. In a win against Louisville City in which RIFC spent much of the second half fending off a comeback, Ybarra showed his quality and then some.

In the regular season, Ybarra - signed from Pittsburgh after two years with the Riverhounds - registered the third-most minutes on the squad and played in 34 out of 34 possible matches. The midfielder picked up four assists on 45 chances created, but his numbers were otherwise pedestrian on the face of it. Ybarra ranked in the 68th percentile for defensive actions and the 50th for passing volume. Still, pure numbers don’t capture the midfielder’s immense value.

Rhode Island is a 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 team on paper, but their press often extends up into more of a 5-1-3-1 shape. This alignment has ample tactical utility. Against LouCity, the wide members of that high three-man line clogged lanes into the half spaces, while Noah Fuson typically sat in the center and made it difficult to find Taylor Davila.

None of it works without Ybarra’s flawless positioning as the lone holding mid shielding the back five. You see #23 reading space in the example above. Louisville finds an edge around RIFC’s right, and there’s a real possibility that any of Ray Serrano (left winger), Wilson Harris (striker), or Elijah Wynder (center mid) could burst in for a look. Instead, Ybarra waits until the last possible instant to commit, thus making it hard to find any of the three.

Ybarra is eventually in position for a glancing header, one that all but kills the move and eventually allows RIFC to clear. It’s the sort of thing he pulls off about a dozen times a game.

The 25-year-old hardly put a foot wrong in Kentucky, missing on just three pass attempts in addition to the defensive quality. Ybarra isn’t burdened with the creative impetus for this team; instead, he’s the king of gracefully passing out of pressure or hitting a square ball that changes the point and allows a teammate to advance.

You also see Ybarra’s defensive actions above. The midfielder was quite active rotating low into the box to cover space and deny the hosts. Five of his eight defensive actions came in the 18-yard area. It’s not like Ybarra was absent upfield, either. He still made five ball recoveries and proved to be hugely additive in second-ball situations.

If Rhode Island goes the distance - something that they absolutely have the talent to do - Marc Ybarra will be key to the effort. Every great team needs a glue guy, and Ybarra is the best in the business.

Union Omaha, calm and collected

There were whispers of doubt about Union Omaha after a win over Richmond in which they attempted just nine shots and came away with a slim victory. Maybe that was a one-off, or maybe they were motivated by having just one representative on League One’s all-league teams. No matter what, they came out firing in a confident comeback win over Greenville.

The Players’ Shield winners sported a 5-4-1 defensive shape on paper, but their tight central marking belied any implied low-block passivity. With Pedro Dolabella assigned to Chapa Herrera and Max Schneider more loosely paired onto Carlos Anguiano, the aim was to stifle Greenville’s ability to work down the middle and force the guests into a route one style.

Herrera tended to sit rather deep in build, so Dolabella regularly stepped high to close down. Omaha wingers Lagos Kunga and Zeiko Lewis also hinged up, meaning that the press often looked like a 5-1-3-1. That setup allowed Dom Casciato’s side to dominate territory for the most part, and the majority of rotations into a deeper 5-4-1 went off without a hitch.

Even so, the designed aggression down the middle led to trouble moments into the game. Greenville scored on their first legitimate spell of possession because Omaha didn’t stay tight.

In this case from the eighth minute, Anguiano is about to hit a centering pass to Herrera. That action from the Greenville center mids draws the Omaha pivot up. As such, the Triumph’s attacking mids have space tow work behind the charging Dolabella and Schneider.

Triumph right winger Pascal Corvino cuts inside, where he’ll be able to receive from Herrera. To replace, Evan Lee (the No. 10) makes a run toward the right channel, where he can ride Marco Milanese’s back shoulder and prevent Milanese from stepping into the pocket to intervene.

When Corvino receives between the lines, he dribbles to the left. Omaha no longer has a shield in front of their back five, but they can’t allow Corvino to continue his move unperturbed.

The response? Multiple players step to Corvino. Joe Gallardo, the right wing back, makes an obvious charge at the leftward-moving dribbler, but Luca Mastrantonio does the same. Mastrantonio (the centermost center back) is covered in behind by Blake Malone (the right-sided center back), but there’s now a gaping hole toward the edge of the box because of the miscommunication.

For the visual learners, here’s that situation mapped out. The defensive rotation at the back opens a gap, and Greenville uses it by way of an overlapping Tyler Polak

Indeed, the left back sees what’s happening, runs into the open space, and receives from Corvino. Meanwhile, Lee sneaks toward the far post, and it’s 1-0. The entire play was a testament to Greenville’s possessive style and the early jitters from the hosts.

That play was ultimately a massive exception in a first half where Union Omaha attempted 17 shots, a number well above this club’s per 90 average. After the concession, the home press did extremely well to limit Greenville’s possession game. Time and again, Omaha was able to control second balls and quickly advance play into the offensive zone.

Los Búhos were direct in their own right, but their long game felt much more intentional. Greenville tended to press in a 4-2-3-1, but their pivot struggled to cover wider into the channels. Players like Zeiko Lewis proved incredibly adept at finding touches at their feet between the lines; Lagos Kunga’s low-sweeping runs bent the shape and allowed for dinks over the top into Joe Gallardo on the overlap.

Though the Triumph looked strong in defensive recovery, you could sense that the dam was due to break. It did so just before the half.

The equalizer began with Gallardo staying low for a touch from the right wing back spot, forcing Polak close down upfield. Polak was between a rock and a hard place. Because left winger Lyam MacKinnon was been played past, someone needed to address Gallardo. In doing so, however, Polak inadvertently opened a lane for a pass in behind to Kunga.

When he received, Kunga - the matchwinner last time out against Richmond - broke the ankles of one center back, Drew the other out, and slipped Aaron Gomez in for a chipped finish. It proved to be a deservedly pretty pay-off for a half of dominance.

Scenarios in that manner played out too often for Greenville’s liking. Though the Triumph ended up with a narrow edge in terms of final third entries, they trailed Omaha by a margin of 35 to 22 on touches in the box. Casciato and co. proved to be much more incisive.

Though Omaha enjoyed less third-man engagement from Schneider than they did against Richmond, they still felt composed. This was a somewhat arhythmic game, and the Nebraskans did better to ride the wave and assert their territorial control.

Zeiko Lewis’ go-ahead second-half goal was a prime example. Omaha picked their moment to trap hard in the press, engaging wing back Charlie Ostrem and forward Aaron Gomez alongside a probing Lewis. Forcing a turnover and quickly advancing from there, Omaha could work in before the Triumph re-formed defensively. Again, it was an example of Casciato’s side making the guests uncomfortable and controlling the moment.

Greenville’s big late swing was to pull right back Jamie Smith in favor of Ben Zakowski. With Zawkoski on the right and fellow sub Sebastian Velasquez setting the table as a No. 10, the Triumph slid Evan Lee into the back line and went for broke. The goal never came.

Fresh-legged Omaha stuck to their Dolabella-on-Chapa press, and their defensive rotations stayed clean. You never had another “gap behind the defense” moment thanks to pristine chemistry between the wing backs and outside center backs. That’s what makes this Union Omaha team special: they can beat you with a hydra-like attack, but they’re equally good about sitting in and seeing out results. It may just make them champions next Sunday.

Spokane’s Cinderella run

Spokane is an unlikely finalist in League One, but they’ve more than earned their chance at a trophy in their expansion season. Against Forward Madison this Saturday, the Velocity waited half an hour to generate a chance worth more than 0.02 xG. It took penalty kicks and another year of Brooks Thompson playoff heroism to get over the line. And yet, there’s a real shot they go the distance.

You wouldn’t argue that Leigh Veidman’s unit was the worse side on the night. This was a very tight-run game, and Spokane has a way of growing into matches by gradually exerting control through the midfield. Their ability to do so in Wisconsin is what earned a shot at Omaha.

Madison did a fantastic job of working past the visitors’ 4-4-2 early on. In practice, Spokane almost pressed with a hexagonal front six: two defensive mids backed up two wider-split wingers beneath the strike pair of Anuar Pelaez and Luis Gil.

There was a bit of consternation this week when Jimmie Villalobos was named to an all-league team, but #21 showed out as a deep-seated mid amidst Madison’s 3-4-3ish possession shape.

Above, Villalobos (deeper, in blue and pink) and John Murphy (higher, same coloration) split in the central midfield, dividing Spokane’s attention. Because the Velocity hedge to Murphy and sit off on Villalobos, the all-USL man can thread a pass between the lines to Derek Gebhard (denoted in pink).

Madison knew how to leverage their guests’ spacing and hit Gebhard where it mattered in the channels. Spreading Spokane out and climbing the ladder up the middle was the best way to do damage. Even so, the hosts were equally likely to hit Stephen Payne at right wing back around the edge of the defense. No matter what, it all began with Villalobos, the anchor of what often looked like a 3-1-5-1 formation.

Defensively, Villalobos had the important job of plugging holes at the back in rotation. Madison wasn’t afraid to push their outside defenders - Michael Chilaka and Jake Crull - into the half spaces to close down on Spokane. We saw the Velocity leverage Masango Akale and Kimarni Smith to great effect in those areas last week, and so Madison wanted to deny the same chances; they needed Villalobos to cover low to maintain their shape in the process.

The Velocity’s best early moves came when breaking out of their own block before their opponents could settle. Forward Madison held 62% of the ball in the opening 45 minutes, and if Spokane could turn them over, hit Gil behind the counterpress, and then turn into an advancing winger, good things happened. Passes straight into Akale - who moved from left to right after 30ish minutes and linked well with an overlapping Javier Martin Gil - were equally efficacious; the winger proved to be a one-man counter at times.

Akale moved back to the left out of the break, but by then Spokane had found their footing. The midfield duo of Jack Denton (three interceptions, five for six on duels) and Andre Lewis (two for two on tackles) gave Madison less time to think and proved sprightly in possession. Derek Waldeck kept Payne quiet on the sideline. Luis Gil showed a willingness to drop into a 4-4-1-1 or 4-5-1 in block - though he’d exit for Josh Dolling relatively early.

Dolling’s entrance would help Spokane to choke Madison out and grab hold of the match. With each passing period - first half, second half, and each chunk of added time - the Velocity would increased their share of possession more and more until they finally attained a majority.

You see the improvement dynamic above. As the hosts defend in a 5-4-1, both Dolling and Pelaez drop low in front of the midfield. Pelaez plays catch with Andre Lewis in this case, bouncing back and forth to the center mid and forcing Madison narrow in the act. Indeed, Madison compacts very tight in the face of the deep No. 9s.

In the second frame, you see the consequence of the compaction. When Lewis receives anew, he’ll instantly be able to work around the edge to either Waldeck or Akale on the left side. Meanwhile, Smith is open on the right between the lines if Lewis feels like a more aggressive switch. Spokane’s ability to pack the midfield and advance with one-touch passing bent Madison and opened up opportunities for advancement.

You see another example here against the high 3-4-3 press, with Madison pushing the left winger, left wing back, and the higher center mid to trap Javier Martin Gil at the sideline. Again, though, Spokane outthinks the defense.

In this case, Lewis becomes the low man that’s available for a sideways pass to relieve the pressure. Meanwhile, Jack Denton smartly stays ahead of #77. As soon as Lewis receives, he’ll be able to hit Denton upfield, break the press, and allow the Velocity to bear down on the final third.

Small bursts of positional brilliance in that manner allowed Spokane to control the back half of the match. Though Madison had some flashes - bringing on Juan Galindrez and dropping Devin Boyce into the midfield was a savvy call - they never found a consistent way to penetrate. Outside of one bold diagonal to Galindrez that nearly beat Brooks Thompson on his near post, chances barely arrived.

Thompson came good in penalties, diving to his left to stop a Cherif Dieye try and setting Spokane up for a victory on spot kicks. Still, they were the more composed team all night long; the shootout was no fluke.

As up-and-down as it’s been at times for this Spokane Velocity team in 2024, the playoff run feels like a just reward at the end of a long campaign. We saw flashes of a cerebral, patient juggernaut throughout the year, and now Veidman has brought it all together at the perfect moment.

Odds

This section gets shorter and shorter every week, eh? Last time out, the model went four-for-six. I…uh…accidentally mislabeled the matchups in the graphic, but my numbers nailed everything except for the Rhode Island and Spokane victories.

For a third-straight match, the Velocity are road underdogs. That 69% number in favor of Omaha makes me hot under the collar, but it’s hard to deny how good the Players’ Shield winners have looked recently. Expect a tight match; these teams split four matchups across 2024 with an average scoreline of 2.75 to 1.50 in favor of Union Omaha.

Charleston and Rhode Island are expected to play the closest game of the round, with the home Battery enjoying a 55/45 edge over their expansion foes. If Charleston wins, they’ll host the title game. Rhode Island will travel, but that hasn’t been a hurdle for them so far. These teams drew twice during the year, including in an October 19th matchup with both sides mostly at full strength.

After two straight rounds of favorite status, the Las Vegas Lights are finally an underdog as they head to Colorado Springs. These teams also drew twice in the regular season, though the Switchbacks held a plus-14 shot margin in their second matchup up in the Rockies. Whoever wins, I’d anticipate to be an underdog in the title game.

Threads!

Here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for more on the Rhode Island defense? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.

• Louisville - Rhode Island (11/9)

• New Mexico - Las Vegas (11/9)

• Charleston - Tampa Bay (11/10)

• Colorado Springs - Orange County (11/10)

Final Thoughts

In other news this week…

• Bluesky! Join it! I’m still posting articles and whatnot on Twitter, but more of the extraneous posts (random player radars, signing news, Mission: Impossible trailer reactions) are over on Bluesky - and so are many of the familiar faces that make the USL corner of the internet special.

• So excited to see Jordan Farr getting a move to DC United. I’ve been a fan of Farr since his Indy days, and you won’t hear anyone from there, San Antonio, or Tampa Bay say a bad word about him. Funnily enough, 2024 was Farr’s worst USL season in terms of goals prevented (+3.4), but ball-knowers know how spectacular he’s been stopping high-leverage shots for years on end.

• No human on other is more excited than I am for Gladiator II.

That’s all, folks. See you soon!

Cover Photo Credit: Emma C. Marion / The Providence Journal