The Back Four: Jagermeister Cup final, set pieces, and more
A look at Northern Colorado's trophy win, plus corner kick trends and team quick hits in the USL Championship
Welcome to The Back Four, where I’m analyzing four things that drew my eye from across the USL. Need a recap of the entire Championship? Hit up Backheeled.
Now, let’s get to it.
Jagermeister Recap
Northern Colorado is your Jagermeister Cup (or plate?) champion, and it’s a deserved reward for a Hailstorm side that went undefeated in the competition and finished with a goal difference of plus-13, 11 goals better than any of their competitors. The final against Forward Madison took a penalty shootout to decide, but it was yet another example of the Hailstorm’s confident style.
With Colin Falvey on the sideline given Eamon Zayed’s suspension, Northern Colorado stuck to their typical 4-2-3-1. Madison was in a familiar zone as well, sporting Matt Glaeser’s preferred 3-4-3 with Devin Boyce as a mobile right winger and Jake Crull wont to bend up from his left-central defensive spot.
In the end, it was the Hailstorm’s defensive approach that won the game - but not before striker Christian Chaney had his say. Just nine minutes into the match, Madison worked from Crull to Wolfgang Prentice at left wing back and forced NoCo to rotate toward that side. Prentice, who’s in the midst of a breakout season, turned quickly, spotted Chaney making a run between the Hailstorm center backs, and chipped a ball his way. The striker chested the pass down and came good from there.
That sequence was ultimately the exception that proved the rule on Saturday night. Madison mostly lacked the tempo to pull off similar sequences, and their hosts were too organized to cede that amount of space to Chaney ever again.
Northern Colorado was extremely impressive in the low block for a few reasons. Lucky Opara was stellar at left back, for one. Matching up against Madison’s Stephen Payne is a tall task for any defender, but Opara held him to zero chances created, zero crosses completed, and zero shots attempted. That’s denial at its finest.
Billy King’s low rotations helped the cause. The Scottish international tracked back with abandon to double up on Payne whenever possible. Madison doesn’t tend to flex Timmy Mehl up the right in a Crull-esque manner, and that gave King the license to dig in. The left winger didn’t have to scramble up to close on a deep crosser.
Centrally, Jackson Dietrich and Patrick Langlois seemed to be man marking Madison’s attacking mids. Dietrich glommed onto Devin Boyce, often tracking his runs into the channel between NoCo’s center and left back. Meanwhile, Langlois was assigned to Derek Gebhard.
The result? Gebhard and Boyce create just one chance and attempted one non-blocked shot. Madison didn’t support them with the underlapping runs that would’ve asked questions of the NoCo scheme.
Surety at the back and a successful high press allowed the Hailstorm to control territory. In possession, you saw them leverage Real Gill, Bruno Rendon, and Ethan Hoard as an effective - if wonky - front three at times, and that formula put NoCo on the board when Hoard flicked a header onto Rendon to tie the match.
Hoard’s movement and agility belie the expectations for a 6’4” hoss of a No. 9, and they gave NoCo an anchor amidst Madison’s 5-4-1 block. Though Hoard only went four-for-11 on duels, he was constantly challenging the alignment of the opposing back line. When #20 did work in, he always seemed to be in a good spot; seven of his 20 touches came in the box.
Above, you see Rendon (circled) possessing on the edge of the area. He’s supported by Real Gill (in white) staking a claim to the left pocket and Hoard (also in white) making a rightward run; that polarized arrangement forces Madison to divide their attention. When Rendon hits Hoard to spark a give-and-go, it’ll allow #27 to run directly into that central gulf.
Gill was highly successful at staking out those left-central positions all night. Though he started as the right winger, the Trinidadian international was smart enough to clear out for other runners while still giving his side a presence where it counted.
In build, Northern Colorado often relied on David Garcia and Dietrich to set the tone. Garcia, the starting central defender on the right side of the back four, captained his team and went 42-for-48 on his pass attempts. His right-footed passes into the channel were a tremendous asset for NoCo, forcing the guests to sit back in order to shore up their block.
Dietrich and substitute Enock Kwakwa both brought left-footed distribution to the central midfield. Neither really stuck to the center of the park, and that was by design. Their drifts to the left sideline stretched Madison out and added yet more variety to the Hailstorm look.
You see Kwakwa dishing the ball above. By this point of the match, Boyce had moved to the left wing back spot for Madison, but that only served to free up Hailstorm build to an even greater degree. In the case above, Kwakwa’s drift lets him find Opara over the top against a struggling wing back and nearly sets up a winner.
Still, Northern Colorado couldn’t quite get over the line in regulation, condemning them to a penalty shootout against Madison’s Bernd Schipmann. In all League One competitions since joining Forward Madison, Schipmann had saved three of 11 penalties faced. Meanwhile, the Hailstorm’s Lalo Delgado had saved four of 12.
It was a relatively even matchup on paper, but Delgado was the hero in the end. On Madison’s fourth penalty, he stopped a Jake Crull effort and set up Hoard’s stutter-stepping winner. It was a magical moment for the home crowd, and a deserved trophy for a rampant Northern Colorado side.
Set piece check-in
Inspired by discussions with my friend, Backheeled’s art guru, and USL play-by-play maestro Peyton Gallaher, I wanted to take a look at team efficiency on set pieces this season. The simplest way to do so is to examine efficiency and volume: who gets the most shots from corner kicks, and who puts up the highest xG on those shot attempts?
New Mexico’s league-worst record stands out starkly, especially for a team that’s leading the Western Conference. Anthony leads the team with 0.4 xG on the end of corners; some teams generate that total in the span of a single match. Meanwhile, no taker has created more than seven chances from the endline. This is a team that’s hyper-efficient on the break, but that hasn’t resulted in corner opportunities or efficient execution whatsoever.
Tampa Bay is bolstered by Lewis Hilton’s precise distribution, and they’ve got a few top-of-the-line threats in the box. Forrest Lasso’s absence hasn’t slowed Manuel Arteaga, who leads all players with 19 shots from corner plays, or Cal Jennings, who also ranks in the top ten with 12 such shots.
Aaron Molloy (2.6 xA) and Memo Diaz (2.3 xA; more on him in a minute) are the Championship’s two leaders in expected assists from corner kicks. That Molloy leads the league by a comfortable margin is remarkable in the context of his recent absence; he’s created 31 shots from corners this year. On the flip side, Diaz and the Oakland Roots are a low-volume dead ball team, but they lead the division in xG per corner attempt.
Louisville stands out as the cream of the crop. In Wilson Harris, Arturo Ordonez, and - somewhat oddly - Jorge Gonzalez, they possess three of the USL Championship’s top nine xG accumulators on corner kicks. Taylor Davila and Ray Serrano respectively sit 12th and 16th place in terms of xA from corners, combing for about 2.5 expected contributions on the serve.
The talent is there at Lynn Family Stadium, but it would amount to little without Danny Cruz’s league-best play design.
You see one of their set piece goals from a 3-1 win against the Charleston Battery broken down here. The sequence starts with Serrano taking a right-footed in-swinger, targeting four possible receivers at the near post and two at the far post.
Three of the near-side runners draw Charleston’s mixed-mark defenders out, while a loop inside from Arturo Ordonez distracts a central zonal defender. Meanwhile, Wilson Harris sticks at the far post to further split up the Battery. The flurry of motion allows for Serrano’s inch-perfect cross to meet Aiden McFadden for a goal.
These sorts of plays are wildly common for LouCity. No team is as effective from dead balls, especially those that target the far post. It’s yet another reason why they’re the best team in the USL.
Monterey, eh?
When they aren’t stepping on a rake in terms of fan relations, Monterey Bay FC is in the thick of the playoff race. This club hasn’t won a single match since July 6th, and they haven’t scored a goal in 542 regulation minutes. At the same time, they’re only five points back of the cut line with four games to play. With games against Phoenix and Tulsa remaining, Monterey has a puncher’s chance at getting over the line.
Since Jordan Stewart took over for Frank Yallop roughly 50 days ago, Monterey has actually put up very good defensive numbers. They’re a top-seven team in the Championship in terms of expected goals against per 90 minutes in the Stewart era. Defenders like Kai Greene are rock solid, and Carlos Herrera has been decent in net.
The issue comes in attack. Monterey’s xG output ranks in the bottom four in the USL, barely over 1.0 xG per game. This club hasn’t given up: they added Diego Gutierrez, a talented right-footed winger, and Christian Volesky, a familiar face and veteran poacher, before the roster freeze. It simply hasn’t gelled.
That those players haven’t made an impact owes in large part to Tristan Trager’s absence. The star striker leads the team with eight goals (no one else on the roster has more than four) and constantly opens up room for teammates with clever runs into the channels. Without Trager, Monterey has been entirely too static.
That’s a shame given the innovations Stewart has brought to the table. There are hints of back three principles on show at Cardinal Stadium, and Monterey’s youthful central midfield is bringing a real sense of dynamism.
You see a nascent break developing above, and you’ll note two things: Morey Doner (circled) is flying up the flank from the right back spot out of the defensive 4-2-3-1, and two center mids (white, with arrows) are advancing up the middle.
Doner has always been a rock for Monterey, but that license to push high while left back Carlos Guzman stays deeper is something new. In this club’s last three matches, Doner has tried a total of 14 crosses and taken an eye-watering 234 touches. He’s a vital hub in Monterey’s attacking shape.
In the midfield, Xavi Gnaulati has nailed down the No. 10 spot as a 19-year-old, and he brings exceptional verve and progressivity if nothing else. Gnaulati tried five take-ons against Detroit over the weekend, and he tried four shots against Orange County a week prior. On the flip side, you also get games where the teenager goes nine-for-21 as a passer and breaks flow in the final third, as seen against Las Vegas.
That example above features Gnaulati on the ball, but you also see fellow center mid Mobi Fehr joining him on the run. Such runs from Fehr are crucial to overloading defenses. Monterey, to put it bluntly, doesn’t have the skill to pick you apart; see two-for-nine passing in zone 14 in the Detroit loss. Where incision fails, sheer numerical overloads can do the job.
Are the fresh ideas enough to get Monterey back over the line and to break their skid? Probably not without Tristan Trager. Still, Jordan Stewart’s innovation is a positive development for a club facing growing pains on and off the pitch as 2024 comes to a close.
Quick hits
As the season winds down, I wanted to throw out some shorter-form thoughts on teams I haven’t touched on in a minute. Without further adieu…
Oakland: Memo Diaz is creating 2.2 chances per game, the best of any full back in the USL. He’s intercepting 1.9 passes per 90 minutes as well, another elite mark. While the Roots haven’t scored in 374 minutes, Diaz has continued to excel on the right side.
When Oakland’s offense isn’t working, the Roots fecklessly try to build down the middle without the requisite creators between the lines to do so effectively. When Oakland is doing damage, they’re able to stretch defenses because of Diaz’s contributions. #23 breaks the opposing shape, and room opens up for skip passes to Johnny Rodriguez or slaloming dribbles from Camden Riley.
You see a prototypical Diaz play here, one that comes with Oakland staging a failed comeback against FC Tulsa. #23 starts low, rotates with winger Baboucarr Njie to retain structure, and makes a striker-like run thereafter. Diaz’s timing to stay onside is good, but no one looks up to find him in time.
The play amounts to nought in the end. Still, who outside of Jack Gurr is doing that sort of thing as a wing back? Any Oakland resurgence is going to run through Memo Diaz.
Memphis: By the quarter mark of Memphis’ match against Louisville over the weekend, 901 led by two goals and got nine interventions (i.e., interceptions, tackle wins, and recoveries) from their central midfielders. Stephen Glass started with a 4-2-3-1 on paper, but it could easily flex into a 4-4-2 with one of the center mids pushing high. Samuel Careaga, Emerson Hyndman, and Zach Duncan were running the game in the press.
From thereon out, LouCity scored four goals. That Memphis midfield group only managed nine more takeaways in 65 minutes. What started as a high-tempo pressing masterclass turned into a rout.
You see the totality of interventions from that ostensibly center-aligned group above. The rub? They’re mostly extending to the left, or Louisville’s possessive right. That same pocket is the hottest region of a LouCity heatmap that reached a rolling boil.
When the press worked early, the 901 center mid trio effectively trapped against their left side and asked questions of the hosts. When the press stopped working, those aggressive close-downs gave Louisville acres of space. The impact? Right wing back Aiden McFadden ended up with five cross attempts and four shots as he ate up behind the 901 midfield line; center back Sean Totsch completed 48 of his 60 passes on that side.
But, hey, here’s to trying! Memphis is at their best when they’re controlling games, and we saw a 25 minute burst where they did so against the best team in the USL. Few teams will be able to come back against 901 if they keep up that initial intensity.
Birmingham: Darwin Matheus was a sparkplug during his time with Atlanta United 2, boasting of 2.4 successful dribbles and 1.7 chances created per game during his final season in Georgia. Back then, Matheus tended to play between the lines in Atlanta’s 5-3-2 (call it a 5-2-1-2, really) as he drifted into the channels to find touches and go at defenders.
Though the Venezuelan forward only picked up three goals and a lone assist across two seasons in Croatia thereafter, his skills clearly haven’t atrophied at the USL level. He’s proving as much as Birmingham’s newfound super sub.
Between a wondergoal in added time to beat Miami and a hockey assist to tie the game in Pittsburgh, Matheus’ contributions off the bench have been crucial for the Legion two weeks running. Tommy Soehn has employed the attacker in a center-right attacking position, allowing him to flow alongside teammates like Tyler Pasher. You can’t argue with the results: Birmingham’s goal difference is better off by +3.7 goals per 90 in Matheus’ extremely small sample to date.
Where does he fit in the lineup on a permanent basis? Pasher and Enzo Martinez are nigh undroppable, and Dawson McCartney has quickly become a Soehn favorite on the left. Matheus could play as a striker, but he’s better playing behind a classic No. 9 like Stefano Pinho. That leaves a debate between Matheus and Prosper Kasim, and I wouldn’t want to be the guy to make that call when push comes to shove. Good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless.
Threads!
Here’s a backlog of my bigger game recaps. Looking for analysis of Phoenix’s no good, very bad week? Check out this week’s USL Tactics Show on the socials.
Final Thoughts
In other news this week…
USL League One stopping down for a weekend to put the Jagermeister Cup Final under the spotlight was an inspired choice. The US Open Cup could learn a lesson or two.
Is Sacramento the favorite in the West again? That Sunday night match against New Mexico was a major statement, and Mark Briggs totally dominated the game with his shifted approach in the press. New Mexico, Colorado Springs, and Las Vegas feel viable, but no one is touching the Republic if they repeat Sunday’s 2.6 xG breakout.
If you’re a gambler and/or someone who appreciates the USL being compared to Star Wars’s runtime or the presidential term of William Henry Harrison, go check out Ryan Allen’s Substack. You probably know Ryan as one of my co-hosts on the USL Show, and he’s up every Friday with an odds-centric preview of the weekend’s action. It’s tremendous fun.
New York Film Festival season is upon us, and I’m amped. I’ve got tickets for a half a dozen movies over the next two weeks, and that basically requires me to make Lincoln Center my second home. Can’t wait.
That’s all, folks. See you soon!
Cover photo credit: Northern Colorado Hailstorm / Twitter
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