Checking in on San Antonio's title defense

Is there cause for concern in the Lone Star State?

Since USL Pro’s inaugural season in 2011, only two clubs played in back-to-back championship games: Louisville City, champions in 2017 and 2018, and Swope Park Rangers, runners-up in 2016 and 2017. COVID prevented Tampa Bay from joining the club more recently, but it’s still exceedingly rare for a team to win their conference or defend a title two years in a row.

San Antonio FC is hoping to break the mold in 2023. The reigning champs are currently second in the Western Conference, and they’re tied for the USL’s best goal difference. By expected goal (xG) difference, San Antonio is solidly number one.

Still, Alen Marcina’s cutthroat style is showing minor cracks as of late. Here, I want to take a look at roster management, tactical experimentation, and finishing as factors behind his club’s recent inconsistency.

San Antonio is winless since August 16th, sputtering to four draws and a loss across five tries. In early August, San Antonio peaked with a running xG margin of +2.1 per game; that number cratered to +0.3 barely a month later. What’s bringing this team back to earth?

Some of the issue comes down to the roster, especially because of injuries and international absences. Last time out, San Antonio missed Ismaila Jome and Shannon Gomez - regular starters at wing back - as they served their countries. On the former point, Marcina preaches a hyper-physical style of soccer, and he’s famous for running intense training sessions. As a result, his team almost always has five or more players on the injury list.

The demanding “Mentality Monster” culture can also lead to self-inflicted limitations. On his debut, Trova Boni - a veteran of the top two tiers of Portuguese soccer - was subbed off after just 15 minutes after making a mistake in the midfield in the lead-up to a concession. Those sorts of choices by Marcina keep standards high, but they can limit depth.

Chemistry matters, too. San Antonio has aggressively pursued midseason pick-ups, and getting the new faces up to speed is no mean feat. Recent returners like Nathan and Santiago Patino know the system. Other players, Rida Zouhir or Trova Boni, took time or are taking time to ramp up.

The roster trends feed into San Antonio’s tactical ups and downs. This club still turns to a back five built on physicality and directness when they can, but there have been changes and inconsistencies, too. The trends become apparent in the tape.

More often than not, the Texan side now uses a 5-1-2-2 shape with one holding midfielder (DM) at the base of the midfield. The more advanced central midfielders (CMs) are extremely aggressive in the press, often pushing into the same areas of the pitch in pursuit of the ball.

Above, two examples of that press are shown. In the first play, opposing FC Tulsa restarts quickly, gliding behind one of the higher CMs. Meanwhile, the deeper DM is too wide; a SAFC center back (CB) has to step up in support.

Even though San Antonio compresses, their reaction is too slow, and Tulsa gets behind the midfield for a shot.

The second play showcases more of the same. As the opponents recycle possession, the SAFC DM and a CB are drawn upfield; Tulsa plays a pass behind both. Moments later, it’s a goal, with the remaining defenders unshielded and unable to close down effectively.

These examples combine to show how lacking chemistry and misaligned aggression have hurt San Antonio at times.

At other times, San Antonio has used a back-four shape, often rendered as a 4-1-3-2 or 4-3-3. Similarly to the back five, these formations focus on compressing the pitch and refusing to allow opponents to find rhythm.

The back-four formation is naturally narrower than the back five in the defensive zone. You’re working with one less defender, so you have less free hands to cover out wide. Considering how tightly San Antonio’s midfield plays further ahead, that phenomenon can leave openings on the flank.

San Antonio’s foe takes advantage of that fact in each of the clipped sequences. Both moves exploit the less unfamiliar 4-3-3 shape, switching play over the tight defense to allow entrance into the attacking zone.

Still, the back four has its upsides. By giving up a defender, you’re naturally adding numbers upfield. This club only has scored two goals in five games during their winless stretch, but lumping three proper strikers on within a 4-3-3 is a surefire way to generate joy in the offensive zone.

Tani Oluwaseyi’s cool-down makes that an important aim. Oluwaseyi was on top of the world over the summer, winning the Player of the Week title twice and scoring at a Golden Boot clip in doing so.

That performance hasn’t kept up; Oluwaseyi hasn’t scored or assisted since August 6th. While the Minnesota United loanee still makes a tremendous impact with his powerful, constant off-ball movement, he doesn’t have the same touch in front of net.

Still, Nathan and Patino are gradually making up for Oluwaseyi’s lost production. Patino has three goals in seven appearances since his return, one of which was opened up by Nathan’s movement. The Brazilian will be particularly vital in October; he has eight goals in his last six USL playoff matches.

While the new and old faces find their level, using a trio atop a 4-3-3 has occasionally paid dividends.

Here, San Antonio goes direct into the forwards, and the opposition can’t clear the ball amidst the horde of bodies. Meanwhile, that defense is drawn deeper because of those sheer numbers, thereby allowing Jorge Hernandez to pick up possession and dribble in; a chance ensues against a compacted Tulsa team.

This club is blessed with physical, bulky forwards who demand attention, and the back four maximizes their cumulative effect. Not only do strikers like Ignacio Bailone offer a threat in the box, but they open space for the Hernandez types - underrated for their skill in an otherwise bruising team.

Two recent matchups with Rio Grande Valley provide an interesting case study and illustrate why this team is in safe hands under Alen Marcina.

The clip above comes from a 2-1 win against the Toros on August 16th, San Antonio’s most recent victory. Using that 5-1-2-2 shape, Marcina’s unit pushes both CMs towards the sideline, creating a trap. Still, Rio Grande Valley switches over that tight shape and gets a chance. The second such play ends in a goal against a scrambling, whiplashed defense.

More often than not, however, San Antonio’s traps worked. SAFC would triple-team opponents with their CMs and wing backs, and those switches were mostly shut down by excellent one-on-one defending by Mitchell Taintor or Fabien Garcia.

Still, changes came when the two clubs met in another Copa Tejas bout on August 30th. San Antonio rolled with a back five once again, but they hedged their bets against Rio Grande Valley’s outside-in tendencies.

The Toros often started their moves down the right side, so the SAFC CMs would slide that way defensively. To make up for it and protect behind the trap, Carter Manley - who started as the CB on the opposite side of the pitch - would step up into the midfield like a second DM.

Manley mostly stayed home in the basic 5-1-2-2, but he showed great discretion moving central as needed to shore up his team. These machinations were intentional, and they helped San Antonio to keep a clean sheet on the night.

Marcina is excellent at staying a step ahead and making proactive tactical shifts, and that ability will come good in the postseason.

This team isn’t the juggernaut that ran the table in 2022, and that’s okay. Alen Marcina and the front office have slowly built enough depth to weather a tough schedule. Chemistry will only improve with time, which will improve chance quality and limit defensive errors.

This current run of matches hasn’t been great, but Marcina’s strengths as a creative game-planner have kept the club in the mix nonetheless. In the end, I would trust the process for San Antonio. They’ve earned the respect befitting of a title team with a legitimate shot at a historic repeat.