The Florida Projects: Tampa Bay and Miami's new coaches

2023 went in unexpected directions for both USL clubs in the Sunshine State, with Tampa Bay and Miami FC finishing the year in relative disappointment. The Rowdies came second in the East, but they crashed out in the first round of the playoffs. Their southerly neighbors didn’t even get that far, failing to leverage a late-season heater to make the postseason cut.

Both acted quickly when the offseason hit. The Rowdies hired Robbie Nielson, a veteran manager in the Scottish Premiership and Championship, and moved Nicky Law to an assistant role. Miami hired Antonio Nocerino, a former Italian international and youth coach. Neither club dallied in announcing their roster moves either.

With the stage set for the winter ahead, what’s the vibe for the USL’s Florida contingent?

Nielson is something of a continuity candidate for the Rowdies. Like former manager Neill Collins, he’s a Scottish-born defender. The new man has a track record of success in Scotland, leading a few promotion campaigns in the Championship and high finishes in the Premiership. Nielson was unexpectedly fired by Hearts this spring with his club sitting in fourth place.

Under Nielson in the 2021-2022 season, Hearts came third in the league, and they did so with a revealing style. If you’re looking for trends, the Scotsman’s team:

• Possessed the ball effectively and preferred a mixed of long and short build-out patterns

• Closed down aggressively in the middle of the pitch with a lighter frontline press

• Preferred a back-three shape as a baseline, using it about two-thirds of the time during his last 60+ matches at Hearts

Nielson’s system is remarkably similar to that of Neill Collins. Moreover, the formational flexibility he showed in 2023 is reminiscent of Law’s stint with the Rowdies. There’s a bit less of the long-ball game that powered Cal Jennings’ prodigious scoring year, but the overarching continuity ought to pay next year.

Still, it isn’t entirely rosy. Those familiar with the Nielson’s style are more mixed, warning of a duller style of play.

“He's a very decent manager, albeit a bit of a strange fella. His football can be very stodgy and methodical,” says Mark Ellis, a Dundee United and San Antonio FC supporter. “[Nielson] showed at United in our promotion season that he can play with tempo and width, but that seems to have mostly been forced on him from above - do this, get over the line, then you can play your way, which was boreball.”

Tampa Bay has made roster consistency a priority this offseason, returning a veritable Best XI of players for the year ahead. Nielson will surely get the chance to make his tweaks, but I wouldn’t expect much of an overhaul at Al Lang Stadium in terms of tactics or Irn Bru consumption.

Miami, by contrast, is changing in direction by hiring Nocerino and overhauling their roster. Already, players worth 59% of the team’s 2023 minutes have been released. That group includes a former 20-goal scorer in Kyle Murphy, an elite No. 6 in Bolu Akinyode, the USL’s most underrated full back in Aedan Stanley, and a USL stalwart and Salvadoran international in Joaquin Rivas.

The Miami FC™ started their existence in the NASL with Alessandro Nesta on the sideline and Paolo Maldini as an investor. Owner Riccardo Silva, himself an Italian with ties to AC Milan, prefers hiring from within his soccer circles. Still, Antonio Nocerino cuts a different figure in spite of a matching background.

Nicholas Murray, in typically excellent fashion, discussed Nocerino after the news broke, pitching the importance of his experience as a youth coach. Miami hasn’t taken the next step to leverage their academy pipeline, but Nocerino may be the man to do so.

It’s an interesting scenario for Silva and this club, who have never been afraid to spend on finished talent. In 2016 alone, Miami splashed $750,000 on Richie Ryan and $500,000 on Kwadwo Poku to form an all-star midfield. Those sums are unbelievable in the context of the USL in 2023, much less the NASL a decade ago. To see Miami FC possibly pivot towards a homegrown model - still a big if! - is fascinating, especially given how they lag other clubs in that field.

Consider Louisville with Josh and Elijah Wynder as well as Carlos Moguel. Ditto Tulsa with Nate Worth, Luca Sowinski, and others. Orange County has been fiendishly aggressive scooping up hot youth prospects like Korede Osundina and Kobi Henry, and they developed Aaron Cervantes before his Rangers move.

Miami hasn’t made those same strides. 20-year-old midfielder Lorenzo Di Mercurio was promoted from the academy and made two senior appearances last season, but that’s it. Murray pointed out that the club signed six USL Academy prospects in 2023, and Nocerino may be the man to mold them into contributors.

What of Nocerino’s tactical leanings? Given that he’s only worked in an academy capacity, it’s tricky to divine any clear philosophy. Still, looking at Orlando City B in MLS NEXT Pro can provide hints; Nocerino’s products formed that roster, after all.

Orlando finished below water in terms of goal difference but still made the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East. Their game was marked by a few key tenets by the numbers:

• Short-passing in build with patience while exiting out of the defensive half

• Reliance on crosses into Jack Lynn in the final third

• Moderate aggression to regain possession

• Absolutely abhorrent goalkeeping

The adherence to controlled offensive soccer is the big takeaway, and it’s something to watch if Nocerino tries to instill a technically demanding system on an unfamiliar mix of younger prospects and new faces.

The aims are simple for both Tampa Bay and Miami. Robbie Nielson is expected to restore his club to title contention and playoff success. Antonio Nocerino must get Miami back to the postseason in the first place, and he likely needs to do so while centering youth. Are these the right managers for their respective jobs? Time will tell, but both seem poised for success.