Fixing Phoenix: is the new-look offense on the right track?
How Rising play and how they've changed their attacking style
As it stands, Phoenix Rising is eighth in the West, up three points on their closest contenders. Meanwhile, they’ve got a game in hand on the sixth- and seventh-placed teams a step above them. My trusty playoff odds model still gives Phoenix a 73% chance of getting into the postseason despite a semi-tepid start.
That said, there’s a real sense of uncertainty and impatience in the Rising fanbase. YouTube comments and Twitter are an imperfect barometer, but this is a fanbase used to title contention.
Personally? I don’t feel the panic. This club retained only 25% of their minutes played from 2022, and a 13-game run is an inadequate window for Juan Guerra to have implemented his style with a fresh roster.
Still, the angst exists, and it’s largely targeted at an offense that ranks fourth-from-bottom in the West for goals scored. Phoenix is also mid-table by expected goals. What’s going on?
This season, Rising have implemented one of the most distinct tactical approaches in the USL. The style is defined by two tenets: press high and possess with control.
Phoenix often employs a 3-2-5 or 2-4-4 without the ball in which they use their forwards as mobile pressers and encourage their defensive and midfield lines to close high up the pitch. No team has a lower share of interventions attempted by their defenders, illustrative of that activity upfield. Likewise, Phoenix has attempted the second-most pressing actions (i.e., tackles and interceptions) in the league.
Additionally, Rising are the most dominant possession side in the division, owning the ball for 58% of a given match. Goalkeeper Rocco Rios Novo has gone long on just 21% of his passes this season, and the team as a whole only goes long 12% of the time. Both of those numbers are bottom-two in the USL.
The tenets feed into one another. When you close hard and cause turnovers, you’re better able to keep large shares of the ball. Possession, however, doesn’t necessarily lead to creation, and the turnovers forged by the high press haven’t led to golden chances on the break.
This year, Rising rank 18th in conversion rate at a shade over 10%. It’s mediocre, but it isn’t out of line with the league standard. Meanwhile, Danny Trejo has four goals on 13 shots, while Manuel Arteaga has six from 23; that 28% rate is sizzling.
Trejo and Arteaga are two very different players, but they’ve both done well. Finishing just isn’t the issue where it counts. Simply, creation is the key for Phoenix. They’re executing the basics of Guerra-ball to perfection, but they haven’t turned those successes into sustained offense.
That takes us to the No. 10 spot. There isn’t a proper creator that sits narrowly in the middle in sprays passes in the Rising lineup.
Fede Varela could fit that mold, but it simply doesn’t exist under Guerra. Even if it did, Varela has come off the bench in two of the last four matches, and he has only played more than 70 minutes in three of his 11 appearances. The ex-Porto man hasn’t been on the pitch enough to be a focal point.
Panos Armenakas, recently signed from Loudoun, could also fill that role, but he’s best as a creator from wide. A left-footer, Armenakas stood out in Virginia for his ability to cut in on his strong foot from the right wing. It remains to be seen where he’ll fall in the Valley, but the Oakland Roots match this Saturday gave us some hints.
That game, Armenakas’ starting debut, is the framework for analyzing Rising’s attacking future. They’ve got the pieces, but are they showing the potential to rack up goals?
In the match at hand, Guerra sat Arteaga in favor of a front three with Varela (#10) on the left, Trejo (#17) in the center, and Armenakas (#21) on the right. I broke down some chances in my usual recap Twitter thread, but it’s worth analyzing a few more plays to understand the lessons. What could’ve gone better in the debut of the new big three?
Let’s roll the tape.
Here, Varela finds the ball in the center circle in transition. He turns well, but #10 recognizes that he lacks the speed to beat a closing midfielder. As such, the Argentine cuts back onto his right and links with Armenakas against the shifting No. 6.
#10’s pass is a leading, and that forces a heavy touch from the former Loudoun man. You can see the intention: Armenakas could go one-on-one, round the defender, and meet Trejo with a serve. Instead, Phoenix ends up with something more stagnant.
What’s good here? The entire trio makes a connected set of runs, and the individual skill - Varela wrong-footing the Roots’ midfielder, Armenakas’ cutback and quick-fire cross - is promising. Still, there’s a bit of unfamiliarity on show.
In this example, Kevon Lambert presses up into the right half space and pinches onto a foe in tandem with Trejo. This is the high press in action, and it garners a regain.
When #17 dribbles to the right, Armenakas cuts underneath him to fill centrally, but Oakland stays compact. The Australian gets a touch and is shown left, culminating in a low cross from Baboucarr Njie that can’t meet any of a bevy of runners.
Backtrack to the pass between the right winger and false-ish No. 9. The pair have traded places by this moment.
The Roots close down with admirable initiative, but a quicker tempo and more fluid sequence could’ve freed the Australian to feed Varela.
Still, this is a better sequence. You see how smoother reads as the turnover was occurring could’ve led to a more dangerous opportunity.
This time around, Daniel Krutzen advances up the left wing from his central defensive spot, and he hits Trejo as the former Light shows into the hole.
Armenakas sits narrow with Eddie Munjoma providing right-sided width, and Trejo finds #21 in due course. The engagement between Trejo and Armenakas opens Munjoma, but Oakland has compacted by the time the wing back gets the ball. Munjoma’s cut inside leads to nothing but a claim by the opposing netminder.
You’ll note that Varela is nowhere to be seen in this play. While Krutzen advanced and Njie stayed high in attack, the creator dropped very deep into the left half space, offering himself as a safety valve to reset the play if need be.
Imagine - as in the marked-up graphic - if #10 had stayed narrower and higher instead of allowing the two defenders to take charge. This is a player with a more natural instinct as an attacker, and he could double up with Trejo to crash the box. Instead, Oakland goes unchallenged, and the danger of the build-up is greatly reduced.
That’s three half-chances down, but notice the trend: Phoenix is getting closer and closer to a pay-off every time. We started with a loose transition move and sequentially tracked plays that presented more chemistry and more danger in equal measure. How about a cathartic conversion?
This time, Alejandro Fuenmayor initiates as the centermost defender. He draws Oakland up, but he’s not alone in doing so. Armenakas, dropping low, is mere feet away from the ball-moving defender, and Renzo Zambrano sits between the dual No. 6s to amplify the effect.
From there, Fuenmayor plays into Trejo’s feet between the lines. #17 quickly cuts back to an advancing Zambrano, who does well to recover the bad pass and return the pass to Trejo.
What comes next is magical. Trejo dances with the ball, softly knocking it from foot to foot and attracting Oakland’s three center backs in the process.
In the midst of it all, Varela had advanced into the box, and he ends up scoring because of his own smart run and the gravitational pull of Trejo.
This goal illustrates the path forward if Fede Varela, Danny Trejo, and Panos Armenakas indeed form the preferred forward line henceforth. All three attackers play a part, with and without the ball. What’s more, Phoenix works down the middle rather than on the flanks. Many teams aren’t technical enough to operate in tight spaces forged by central overloads. Rising, powered by that trio, has the top-end skill.
The Armenakas purchase and the ensuing Roots match show that, at times, Rising understand their weaknesses and strengths. Too many creative opportunities stalled in that game and have gone wanting across 2023 at large, but I’m convinced that Guerra understands the path to chance creation.
Say things go South? Turn to Arteaga as a traditional No. 9 and play direct. For now, relying on the trickiest trio in the USL and letting them develop chemistry seems to be the winning move.