On the Karlsen era and what's next for Orange County

What defined Morten Karlsen's tenure, and why is the club set up for the long term?

When Morten Karlsen took over as the interim manager in Orange County, the club sat second-to-last in the West and had fired title-winning Richard Chaplow because of their slow start. By early September, Karlsen had transformed Orange County and taken them the top of the conference on the tails of an 11-wins-in-12 run.

Barely a year after taking over, Karlsen is off to Lyngby in the Danish top division. A native Dane, Karlsen briefly played for Lyngby during his professional career, and a return home to familiar territory was too good to pass up. Having served as an assistant for Denmark at the 2022 World Cup and previously earned his UEFA Pro license, a European promotion always felt likely.

Where does that leave OCSC? This is a team that knows the utility of changing horses mid-stream, but this time they're on the wrong side of the river. Karlsen may well have earned the club some sort of fee, having just signed a multi-year extension ahead of the 2024 season. His exit bolsters the credibility of an organization admired for their ability to advance careers on and off the pitch.

Still, the squad he leaves behind is floundering on the field. Though Orange County went into Indianapolis and upset one of the league’s hottest teams over the weekend, they’re in eighth place and have lost six of their last eight matches in all competitions.

On a statistical basis, the club has cratered at both ends of the pitch. OCSC wasn’t an offensive juggernaut by any stretch last year, but their defensive structure was flawless. Only two other teams over the past two seasons have conceded less than Orange County’s 1.1 xGA on a per-match basis.

Structure and talent maximization were bywords for success. Karlsen’s teams ran with a 4-3-3 with the ball, and they cleverly used combination play in the half spaces to advance. Still, there was a risk appetite in the passing game, one aimed at getting Milan Iloski out on the break. Throw in an ability to collapse into a low-block 4-5-1 to make stops and hit Iloski on the counter, and you basically had a USL cheat code.

Iloski was a one-man show at times, and with 16 goals and five assists last year, he contributed to just under 50% of Orange County’s finishes. The left winger won the Golden Boot a year prior, and his brilliance gave Karlsen the runway to patiently build a structure elsewhere on the field.

Without Iloski, things changed quickly. Above, you’ll see a comparison of average touch positions from two matches, one in 2023 and the other from a few weeks ago in 2024.

The average positioning from last year’s win over Loudoun is highly intentional. The 4-3-3 has a delineated shape, with the left back higher and wider than the right back by design. Ryan Doghman was the most-used left back, and his positioning always came in concert with Iloski’s pseudo-forward deployment. That’s just one example of a broader sense of balance and cohesion.

Compare that to 2024, where there’s no semblance of structure; the spacing is all wrong, and there’s a marked lack of engagement in the final third. You can barely differentiate the center mids from the wingers.

Even so, you’d be crazy to blame Karlsen for the regression. Injuries across the board have beset OCSC, keeping players like Doghman, Markus Nakkim, Dillion Powers, Kevin Partida, Ethan Zubak, and more sidelined for long stretches. I’ll admit that I had doubts about the personnel chosen to re-vamp this squad over the winter, but Karlsen never had a fair chance to find a new balance.

What’s remarkable is Orange County’s underlying stylistic consistency, even in spite of the execution issues. Their average share of possession has stayed steady at 46%. The club’s average vertical passing distance has remained around 7.3 yards, just above the league average. Errors and lacking chemistry aside, Karlsen-ball was still on the menu.

Even when his hand was forced because of injuries, Karlsen continued OCSC’s tradition of playing the kids. 19-year-old Ashton Miles has been a veritable stalwart at center back this year, and 18-year-old Bryce Jamison got a brace just a few weeks ago. It takes a confident manager to trust younger players. Karlsen believed in the talent on his squad and in his ability to get prospects to think like a pro; his replacement needs to do the same.

Above, you see Orange County’s lineup from that upset win in the Circle City, Karlsen’s final game. Jamison started, teenaged midfielder Elias Norris entered off the bench, and second-year center mid Ashish Chattha held down the left back spot in a testament to the team’s inexperience. Moreover, loanee Ryan Flood and Sergio Chavez, a former Central Valley player on a 25-day deal, paired in central defense. That’s as shoestring as it gets, but the squad did enough to get OCSC over the line in support of stalwart veterans like Zubak and Kyle Scott.

If this team wants to improve and re-assert themselves as a contender in 2024, the young’uns will need to keep filling holes so as to let the stars cook. Interim manager Paul Hardyman, a long-time assistant and the Academy Director, is absolutely the right person to do so on a short-term basis.

What other steps should he consider?

Giving Scott the reins in the midfield is a must. With Sofiane Djeffal having left the organization amidst odd circumstances and with knocks to Seth Casiple and Brian Iloski, the center of the park is a mess. Scott - who’s willing to press up like a second -striker or play quarterback in build with equal aplomb - can make up the difference. He’s too often been asked to play like a left mid by Karlsen in 2024, and Hardyman needs to avoid that pitfall.

Going more direct can help as well. We saw it against the Eleven, and it’s the best way to avoid errors with a low-chemistry back line. Given how good Jamison has looked pursuing passes over the top and considering Scott’s abilities as a second-ball winner upfield, that approach makes sense. OCSC’s outfield players go long at a 13% rate this year, ninth in the USL. Expect to see more pragmatism in short order.

Ultimately, though, Hardyman would be smart to stick to the Karlsen blueprint. This squad is built for that 4-3-3 system, and trying to install an entirely new approach on the fly is almost always unwise. Hardyman is a company man, one whose real gift lies in youth development. He’s in the job to steady the ship until a new permanent manager option is identified.

Orange County has built a competitive advantage in the USL landscape. Few clubs are as organized and principled from top down, and none match OCSC’s youth acumen. To deny the value of an individual manager would be foolish, but Orange County isn’t held together by a charismatic coach alone. They’ve built an organizational ethos that can last through multiple eras, one that sustains itself by design.

This season absolutely isn’t a wash, and it’ll be fascinating to see what comes next for Paul Hardyman and Orange County on the pitch. No matter what, though, the successes of Morten Karlsen in 2023 and the withstood travails of 2024 have illustrated institutional resilience that sets OCSC apart.

Photo credit to Orange County SC.