Offseason Questions: the first-round exits

Assessing what the eight teams that crashed out early need to address for 2024

The offseason has arrived for 20 USL clubs at the time of writing, which means it’s time to think towards 2024. To start that process, I’ll be going team-by-team to pose one burning question for the winter ahead. From Las Vegas to Pittsburgh, every club has to look into the mirror and decide how to improve.

Today, I’ll preview that process for seven clubs that exited the postseason in the first round. For sad reasons, San Diego won’t be joining the conversation. In any event, let’s dig in.

New Mexico: Does Eric Quill go all in on youth and energy?

Beyond the wonderful news that the city of Albuquerque agreed to a lease deal contingent upon private stadium investment, New Mexico United also finished 2023 with good vibes on the pitch. Three wins in four matches to end the year sent first-year coach Eric Quill into the playoffs, and that happened despite the club underperforming their expected goals ever so slightly.

The late-season improvement was predicated upon the energy of young additions like Zico Bailey (23 years old) and Nicky Hernandez (25) in the central midfield and Arturo Astorga (25) at right back. All were signed midway in the final months of the campaign, and all emerged as key pieces in Quill’s high-pressing 4-1-4-1.

New Mexico ended the year as the second-oldest team in the USL despite the youth of their talismanic breakouts, and they may be due for a changing of the guard. Hernandez was a Quill man dating back to their time at North Texas SC, and Astorga was a product of the club’s U-23 side. I’d anticipate a turn away from the day-one New Mexico United stalwarts in favor of more new-wave talents.

El Paso: What system is Brian Clarhaut driving towards?

The Locomotive haven’t dallied in charting a new course for 2024. Already, they’ve announced seven departures and one new addition; only one other club has announced a signing for the season ahead at the time of writing. Some of the losses are major, ranging from wildly technical center back Marc Navarro to mercurial but incisive No. 10 Denys Kostyshyn.

With Eric Calvillo and Liam Rose back in the central midfield and full backs Petar Petrovic and Miles Lyons also set to return, there’s a spine in place for a team that can go toe-to-toe with any foe in the midfield before launching into offense-first wide players. Elijah Martin, a plus passer at center back who’s joining the club from San Diego, also fits the mold.

Clarhaut started 2023 in a flexible, off-balance 4-4-2 before settling into a similarly wonky 5-3-2 to end the campaign. There were hints of a ball-dominant philosophy that shone through, but El Paso never exerted control upfield or tited the pitch like a territorial team should.

Indeed, the Locomotive averaged a bang-average 50.7% share of possession, while more than 40% of their defensive actions were clearances. In essence, that means that Claurhaut’s side didn’t dominate the ball and was stuck punting away from their net rather than pressing upfield. Can the manager turn the tide, and does he want to?

Indy: How long is Mark Lowry’s leash?

Three seasons, one playoff berth, and one five-goal loss in the first round. For as good as the Eleven looked during a five-wins-in-six run entering September, they couldn’t keep up the momentum into the postseason, and 2023 ended in yet more disappointment. Aodhan Quinn’s late-season injury didn’t help the cause, and Indy didn’t have Solomon Asante or Jack Blake available when they crashed out, but there are still questions to be asked.

Despite leading the USL in possession, Indy finished outside of the league’s top ten for goals scored. For as pretty as the Lowry 4-4-2 could look at times, consistency was never a feature of this time last year despite a star-studded roster. The club invested on the pitch in a major way, and the result’s weren’t quite up to snuff.

Lowry has done an admirable job building the Eleven up from the studs after the rudderless end to the Martin Rennie era, but he hasn’t shown an ability to drive toward the next step outside of fleeting moments. I tend to think that trusting one of the brightest minds in lower-league soccer is the way to go, but Ersal Ozdemir and co. may grow impatient if 2024 looks like another false start.

Colorado Springs: Does this team have the star power to compete?

The Switchbacks were comfortable playoff qualifiers last year, and they won the seventh-most matches of any USL side. I predicted that Colorado Springs would crater without Hadji Barry and Michee Ngalina, but Stephen Hogan forged a ferocious offense out of a cast of versatile pieces instead.

Romario Williams’ 15 goals were his best return in seven years, and Maalique Foster tied his career high for goal contributions. Juan Tejada and Deshane Beckford also had rebound campaigns that approached their historic peaks. As well as Hogan set up those players, it’s an open question whether he can repeat the trick without big-name reinforcements for the season to come.

If Colorado Springs runs things back, they’ll be a comfortable top-six team yet again, even with regression. If they want to take the next step, they need to do something more. The high-six-digit Barry nest egg ought to be enough to add ample reinforcements and illustrate mountain-high ambitions.

Memphis: Is the 901 roster and system viable in the postseason?

Take the Memphis squad in a vacuum, and the top few players are absolutely elite. Aaron Molloy is a perennial all-leaguer in the midfield and was an MVP finalist in 2022. Rodrigo Da Costa had 15 goals and four assists in the season past. Akeem Ward was part of my own all-conference team.

Still, the playoffs are a defense-first proposition, and 901 doesn’t have the steel to effectively operate in that setting.

If you look at Memphis’ midfielders relative to the rest of the league, only Leston Paul (6.5 defensive actions per game) stands out as a legitimate destroyer in the center of the park. Most of that group ranks in the lower quartile of the USL, and that leaves an offense-first side vulnerable against the counter. Often, Memphis also lacked tracking in coverage around their own box as well.

Running and gunning can get you far - just look at Phoenix’s run out West. However, the real title threats combine potent creative threats like Molloy and Da Costa with an organized, full-field defensive scheme. Memphis doesn’t have that, and they need to implement such a system if they want to go further in 2024.

Tampa Bay: Is it time for a change in the defensive half?

Forrest Lasso is wonderful, and he’s a three-time USL Defender of the Year for a reason. Forrest Lasso is also a big fella who isn’t as spry as he once was at age 30. Pair Lasso with an injury-addled Aaron Guillen, a somewhat lumbering Freddy Kleemann, and a defensive midfield stable that leans “initiator” more than “destroyer,” and you see how Birmingham knocked Tampa Bay out in the first round with rapid counters.

2023 was the start of a new era already at Al Lang Stadium. With Neill Collins out and Nicky Law in, the Rowdies leaned into a 4-4-2 to start most of their late season games, moving away from the classic Collins back five. The change did very good things in the attacking half, liberating the JJ Williams-Cal Jennings two-man game and allowing wingers like Josh Perez to hedge into an effective front three. However, it left the back line that much more isolated.

Tampa Bay had a very good defense by traditional metrics, allowing the third-least concessions in the USL. However, they outperformed expectations by almost seven goals allowed, one of the higher residuals out there. Their defense was the eighth-best in the league on xG terms.

Banking on the old stalwarts and another Connor Sparrow masterclass of a year isn’t a bad strategy, but the Rowdies ought to be asking questions. This league is only getting younger, and Tampa Bay needs to make proactive moves to reinvent their defensive corps just as they did with their attack last winter.

Pittsburgh: What needs to change to make a playoff run?

Death, taxes, and the Riverhounds exiting the playoffs early. Bob Lilley is the best there is at what he does, and what he does is forge stifling defenses out of recent college grads and unsung USL veterans. You’d think that the organization and grit Lilley endears would be perfectly suited to October and November soccer, especially with a bonafide goal threat like Golden Boot winner Albert Dikwa up top, but Pittsburgh got unlucky again. What gives?

In some ways, the glorious season from 20-goal Dikwa patched over an inconsistent attack; he scored 40% of their goals, after all. Overall, the Riverhounds were the eighth-worst offense in the league by xG, wedged between two non-playoff teams in Monterey and Hartford.

Lilley also ran with a limited squad, especially at the business end of 2023. Only 10 Riverhounds hit the 1,530 mark for minutes played, which represents half of the season. Only Orange County had fewer such players with nine. In essence, the number means that Lilley didn’t trust his bench, and that left the side in a lurch if they needed to shake things up for certain matchups or to mount a comeback.

2023 was a smashing success by any metric, but it shouldn’t be the high water mark for this club. If Pittsburgh wants to improve year-over-year, they need to find more players that Lilley can trust in crunch time. Last winter, this team lost Russell Cicerone, Alex Dixon, Angelo Kelly-Rosales, and Dane Kelly, and they must reverse the “develop, sell, and rebuild” trend to take another step.