Offseason Questions: the non-playoff teams

Assessing what the eight teams to miss the postseason need to address for 2024

The offseason has arrived for 16 USL clubs at the time of writing, which means it’s time to think towards 2024. To start that process, I’ll be going team-by-team to pose one burning question for the winter ahead. From Las Vegas to Pittsburgh and everywhere in between, every team must look into the mirror and decide how make a leap.

Today, I’ll preview that process for the eight clubs that missed the 2023 playoffs.

Las Vegas: Which players are the buildings blocks for next season?

The Lights ended the season with only 24 players on the roster, tied for fifth-least in the USL. No one in that group had been carried over from the 2022 campaign, after which Las Vegas lost their affiliation with LAFC. It’s unsustainable to rip things up at the root and start over year after year, so this club needs to decide who’s vital to keep around.

Isidro Sanchez did what he could with a hastily assembled unit, and he had the Lights looking borderline competent in September and October on the back of a new shape with an added central defender. Las Vegas “only” lost six of their final nine games, after all.

If a back three is indeed the blueprint for the future, Alejandro Mitrano (capable as a wing back or center back) and Zach Carroll (the only veteran in the defense) feel like keepers. Further up, a purchase of Houston Dynamo loanee Daniel Rios (five goals and three assists in his final eight starts) would be a coup. There’s talent here, last-place finish be damned, and smart re-signings would set a baseline for improvement.

Hartford: Can this club turn off-field resources into a proper vision on the pitch?

Tab Ramos never figured out his philosophy at Dillon Stadium. Omid Namazi did his best on an interim basis, but a misbegotten and disinterested squad made his job impossible. To get out of the basement, Hartford mustn’t err when they hire a permanent manager.

Nate Miller is the obvious candidate, as he will be for any open job in this league until he’s hired. Miller succeeded with Lansing in League One, masterminded San Diego’s success as an assistant to Landon Donovan, and shone in the Loyal head job in 2023. You’d expect him to bring longstanding favorites like Tumi Moshobane, Grant Stoneman, or Nick Moon wherever he lands.

Even if Miller isn’t the man, plenty of other candidates from the USL ecosystem could fit the bill. John Harkes and Jay Mims need jobs after tearing up League One. MLS assistants are never a bad idea either; FC Tulsa and New Mexico United both raided the Columbus Crew staff for their most recent hires.

Sticking with Namazi is also a viable choice. Though Hartford went winless from mid-August onward, they began to play with a real style under Namazi, who boasts experience as the United States’ U-18 manager and an assistant for the U-20s, the Iranian national team, and the USWNT. Innovation was a regularity late in 2023, with clever wing play and varied pressure and positioning in a back three-back four hybrid as regular features. Namazi’s creativity could’ve shone if Ramos hadn’t poisoned the well with a disastrous start.

Hartford has the resources to do something big. They drew about 5,000 fans to each match despite horrid results, and their roster was full of expensive - if ineffectual and over-the-hill - stars. Use that money wisely under the direction of a coach with a vision, and you’ve got a winner.

Loudoun: Is the new-ish ownership willing to invest in a playoff contender?

In many ways, 2023 was a gigantic step forward at Segra Field. Loudoun’s attendance leapt by 70% to more than 2,500 fans per match. They rebuilt their roster around self-owned players rather than DC United loanees. Winger debuted as the club’s instantly beloved mascot!

From front to back, talents like Koa Santos and Kalil ElMedkhar, whose numbers are shown above, established themselves as bonafide USL stars that could fit on nearly any playoff team. Now, Loudoun has to show that they can keep that caliber of player around and invest in more of those types.

Selling Panos Armenakas to Phoenix midway through the season was a step in the wrong direction, though there were other factors afoot in that case. Still, it’ll be clear if Loudoun has bigger intentions for 2024 when they announce their initial roster moves in the weeks to come.

Tulsa: How can this club build for a “second-season” leap?

I recently wrote in detail about FC Tulsa, lauding them for their long-term machinations and excusing the fact that they missed the playoffs in year one of a rebuild. Tulsa is well-established for a step up in 2024, but there’s still work to be done.

Adding depth across the pitch will be key. There isn’t a second option at striker behind Phillip Goodrum, for one. Though Goodrum has appeared in 60 of 68 possible matches in the last two years, scoring 33 goals in the process, it’s unreasonable to expect him to carry that burden without any Plan B. Moses Dyer is great, and he added four goals and five assists in 2023, but he’s best used as a second striker.

Solving the back line is more important. Tulsa allowed 55 goals this year, fourth-most in the USL and more than any playoff team, and they did so despite Michael Nelson rating well in goal by all advanced metrics. There’s a balance to be struck at the wing back spots for this team, one that swerves away from all-out attack mode. The center back spot was an issue all year long because of injuries as well, even if the talent was good on paper. Tulsa needs to be younger and deeper there going forward.

Despite the quibbles, the core pieces for a postseason qualifier are in place at ONEOK Field. It’s up to this organization to fill in the gaps to fulfill that potential.

Monterey: Who can be 2024’s Alex Dixon?

Alive in the bubble race until the final week, Monterey was never quite consistent enough to get over the line. Whereas the expansion campaign in 2022 ended on a high note, 2023 finished with a disappointing flame-out.

Much of the slowdown derived from a limited offense. Alex Dixon was one of the best signings of the USL season, contributing 12 of Monterey’s 41 goals on the season. Only three of those strikes came in August, September, and October, however. When Dixon slowed down, defenses could divide their resources to shut down players like Christian Volesky, who started the year hot but was eventually benched in the stretch run.

At the same time, no team announced more long-term contract extensions last winter. Hugh Roberts, Morey Doner, Sam Gleadle, and Kai Greene could all be back. Indeed, Monterey has 13 players on announced team options for 2024. They’re one of only two clubs in the double digits; Detroit is sitting pretty with 11 such players and back-to-back playoff berths.

That consistency sets a clear baseline for Monterey. You’ve got one legitimate star in Dixon, and you’ve got a core around him that will be back in full and can get you to the bubble. If Monterey wants to contend, they need to bring in more players of that caliber in attack. Shuffling the deck of the coaching staff - Frank Yallop is rumored to be stepping into a front office role - simply won’t be enough.

Miami: Can this core do the job?

Paco Craig and Bolu Akinyode are three years in for Miami FC. Kyle Murphy, Aedan Stanley, and Joaquin Rivas just ended their second seasons in South Beach. All the while, Miami has finished 7th, 6th, and 9th despite their high-profile, high-priced talent.

Taken on an individual level, you could put this roster up against any other team in the USL. Taken as a collective, there are questions about the viability of a coherent tactical fit. A few current Miami players can help to lead the charge into a new era, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see large-scale turnover with a new permanent manager entering the changing room.

At the same time, a confident enough coach may want another bite at the apple. Lewis Neal took this group, put them into a high-flying 4-4-2, and reeled off four straight wins to nearly make the playoffs at season’s end. Miami FC must determine whether that purple patch was fool’s gold or a long-awaited catharsis for a close-but-no-cigar core.

Oakland: Does the 3-4-3 need a shake-up?

The Roots have mostly used the same system since Juan Guerra took over at the start of 2022, opting for a high-energy 3-4-3. There have been variations: Guerra used Ottar Karlsson as a bruising striker, whereas Noah Delgado often used a false nine in Johnny Rodriguez and could tilt the shape into an off-balance 4-4-2. Still, has that look run its course?

The 3-4-3 encouraged the Roots’ wide defenders to maraud high upfield. Danny Barbir and Emrah Klimenta were utterly stellar in those roles; you couldn’t ask more of either center back in context. Still, pushing your last lines of protection into the attacking half so often invites pain. Oakland became reliant on Paul Blanchette magic to get the job done against rampant counterattacks.

That burden on the netminder became too much to bear when the offense ran dry. Oakland, lacking a central creator and using a system that wouldn’t fit one, sputtered in the final stages of 2023, losing seven of their final nine games while scoring only 10 goals. This team was feckless going forward but committed too many bodies high up the pitch at the same time.

I’m harping on the philosophy, and it needs examination, but there’s more at work here. Bryan Tamacas and Neveal Hackshaw missed ample time alongside at the back because of international responsibilities; will either be back? The Roots also need a reliable goalscoring No. 9, as good as Rodriguez was in 2023. Roster changes are inevitable, and I’ll be squaring up their impact on the 3-4-3 as they happen.

Rio Grande Valley: Is this club going to exist in 2024?

It’s been widely rumored that the Toros aren’t long for this world, with owner Alonzo Cantu - whose construction projects have been worth nearly $1 billion - losing interest in an unprofitable soccer venture. Cantu owns the club’s H-E-B Park venue, but the economics seemingly don’t check out. Rio Grande Valley drew crowds of 4,000 or less on average, and they did so in a small market with less available advertising dollars.

On the field, Rio Grande Valley has never been a titan or a free-spender, but 2023 was still the first time the team missed the playoffs under Wilmer Cabrera. The veteran manager had made do with minimal resources: this club was always plagued with late-assembled rosters and a reliance on midseason loanees to save the day. Their successes have been a credit to Cabrera.

One hopes that Cantu has a change of heart or that the whispers are simply untrue. If the Championship isn’t viable, maybe League One can work out thanks to marginally cheaper roster costs, especially with Texoma joining the third division in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Either way, it’s a shame that the Toros are fighting for existence rather than gearing up for bigger things.