Offseason Notebook: Sizing up San Antonio and Open Cup intel
A breakdown of San Antonio FC's transformative offseason, plus other notes from the USL week
No one can argue in good faith that the sky is falling in San Antonio. This club is two years removed from a title, finished second in the West last year, and has made intriguing (if relatively few) moves to strengthen for the season to come. Unexpected exits from Conor Maloney and Fabien Garcia aside, this winter hasn’t been the disaster certain corners of the internet are worried about.
The wrinkle? Alen Marcina, the king of unapologetically physical and direct soccer, wants his team to possess the ball this year. Per Jonathan Check of Bluish Moon, a wonderful resource about San Antonio FC:
Marcina wants physicality and classic #MentalityMonsters energy in defense, but more patience going the other way; it’s a hard balance to find. More muscular teams aren’t wont to hold onto the ball, and San Antonio, who fouled opponents at a per-game rate 2.6 standard deviations above the USL average in 2023, placed dead last in possession share at a lowly 44%. Still, physicality isn’t universally deterministic: Colorado Springs and Tulsa were top-five fouling teams because of their high presses but each held 52% of the ball.
How might this team line up? Running back a typical 3-4-3 is an obvious choice. The shape fits Juan Agudelo’s tendencies to play a supporting role at striker while accommodating a free-flowing Jorge Hernandez between the lines. It also opens up five central midfield and center back spots, which is crucial for a squad with eight viable options in those positions.
Some variant on a 4-4-2, especially in defense, is also possible. That shape is increasingly popular for pressing teams, since the two strikers can vary their heights in order to cut off access to the middle of the field. In turn, that allows aggressive wingers to fly upfield and spring traps; think of it more like a defensive 4-2-4. Going the other way, such a formation would give San Antonio a more constructive shape and increased numbers to keep the ball at their feet.
The new additions back up the intention to re-invent SAFC’s style. Take goalkeeper Pablo Sisniega. In 33 career MLS starts, Sisniega played 20.2 passes per game with an average distance of 31.8 yards per completion. By contrast, San Antonio goalkeepers completed a similar 23.3 passes per game but with a typical distance of 47.7 yards, almost 50% longer than the new starter’s clip. Kendall McIntosh, another addition in net, is even less direct with an average of 29.8 yards.
Ahead, San Antonio is blessed with ample options at center back and in the pivot. Bura Nogueira and Trova Boni. The latter wasn’t especially convincing in limited time on loan last year, but Marcina clearly rated Boni, a 24-year-old veteran of the Portuguese second tier, highly enough to keep him around. Noguiera is more athletic but also fits as a center back-No. 6 hybrid with lower-league tenure on the Iberian Peninsula.
If Nogueira and Boni are lottery tickets, Richard Windbichler is a treasury bond. The 32-year-old Austrian has circumnavigated the globe during his career, and he’s proven time and again that he’s a hugely reliable option as a central defender or No. 6. In the Chinese Super League last season with Chengdu Better City FC, Windbichler put in 112 defensive actions while conceding just 16 fouls and winning 73% of his tackle attempts.
You can see Windbichler doing the job above, and I’m especially keen on two aspects of his game: an aggressive posture against the break and a precise boot on clearances and after recoveries. The veteran knows exactly when to stand firm to put in a challenge and recognizes coverage behind him, and his touches tend to drive play towards open areas.
Kendall Burks, a ‘tweener that flitted between MLS and MLS NEXT Pro as a 24-year-old, is also shown above. A defender like many of the players mentioned, he’s got great size but is very clean turning his his hips in recovery, and he’s a magnet to runners that could’ve beat Chicago in behind.
Burks won 66% of his duel attempts in 900 NEXT Pro minutes, and he put in a very solid 2.3 combined tackles and interceptions per game. On the ball, he’s functional rather than fantastic; Burks didn’t beat a single opponent on the dribble in 2023, but he only went long on 5% of his completions in 2023, a quarter of San Antonio’s cumulative rate.
If Burks - who may sit for the more skillful and proven Carter Manley - isn’t a possessive dynamo, Lucas Silva can be. The Brazilian defender, a 26-year-old veteran of the Portuguese lower leagues, is best as a left back or left wing back, but he has the height and mobility at 6’0” to cover as an outside defender in a back three. Crucially, he’s dynamic on the dribble, able to modulate speeds and beat opponents on the dribble to spark offense.
Compare Silva in the first clip above to a similar situation for San Antonio in the back half. Whereas the new addition receives a feed from a central midfielder and patiently marauds into the attacking zone, thereby allowing four runners to enter the box, Marcina’s side ignores an outlet on the left sideline and hoofs a pass downfield as the defense settles in.
If we see San Antonio change up their game next year, you’ll see these differences play out. Once this team gets to the final third, however, they need options, and Luke Haakenson is an interesting piece to help them in and around the box.
Haakenson has USL experience in the wake of a 2020 loan to the Charlotte Independence, and he never became a fixture for Nashville thereafter; only 10 of his 58 appearances in Tennessee were starts. Reasonably effective anywhere from a No. 8 spot in a 5-3-2 to a roving No. 9 role, Haakenson has a nice final ball in his right boot. He ranked a shade below average for progressive carries and well under par for progressive passes and receptions in MLS, but consistent playing time could do him well.
Further ahead, Kameron Lacey has joined up from Minnesota United 2. In MLS NEXT Pro, Lacey had a 10-goal season, pitching in a goal contribution every 120 minutes or so. His 3.4 shots per 90 comprised were in elite territory as well. Lacey didn’t complete a single cross all season, and he won just 19% of his aerial duels, cutting the profile of an opportunist in the box with little of San Antonio’s typical grit.
For what it’s worth, you can see the actual lineup from this weekend’s friendly below. Not far from my reckoning, but with Luke Haakenson as a No. 8 or even a No. 6. I just can’t imagine this team invested in so many defensive mids to use Haakenson that low, but I digress.
Put all the new faces together in tandem with Mitchell Taintor, Santiago Patino, and Mo Abu, and and you’ve got a team with a wide range of outcomes. There’s still title DNA at Toyota Field, even if a few big names are gone. Still, if and when this team does compete, it’ll be a feat of scouting. San Antonio has pursued a wholly untraditional recruitment style this winter that relied on a lot of foreign imports, and zagging in that manner may be the thing that puts them over the top.
Tidbit here: in talking to multiple sources, I’ve heard that the 2024 US Open Cup is trending towards the format you see below, starting with 11 MLS NEXT Pro clubs in the First Round and featuring only eight pure MLS teams. The MLS contingent would get into the mix in the Round of 32 in May.
The low-res graphic below, distributed to various league officials, lays it out.
Nothing is set in stone, and this is only a proposed solution as far as I’m informed. Even so, it’s an unfortunate state of affairs. MLS has cited fixture congestion driven by the CONCACAF Champions League and the Leagues Cup as a primary cause for the withdraw of most of their American teams, and replacement of some by NEXT Pro contingent is very much on the cards.
Do the math, and the proposed settlement becomes clearer. Eight MLS clubs are in, and nine further MLS clubs are covered by their third-tier affiliates; ignore the Carolina Core and Chattanooga FC, independent organizations who bring NEXT Pro’s count to 11. Putting the two parties together brings you to 17 MLS teams covered out of a possible 26.
The gap of nine clubs? It’s a match for the nine MLS clubs involved in the CONCACAF Champions League. We’ll see what gives soon enough to confirm if that’s the case.
Want more? Be sure to follow Michael Battista and read his Hudson River Blue article for a wonderful deep dive into the latest state of affairs.
That’s all for now! I broke down the burgeoning MLS NEXT Pro-USL relationship at Backheeled, and I’ll have more there on Monday. Also, uh, 8.000+ words of season preview are out there. Anyways, here are more notes and links:
Looking for boots on the ground in San Antonio for a deeper, more passionate perspective? The gang at SA Soccer Roundtable is indispensable for understanding San Antonio FC far beyond my week-to-week notes.
I didn’t want to re-litigate the Jordan Farr thing, but Nicholas Murray has an absolutely bang-up interview this week if you’re into it. Great perspective from Farr on what went down.
Phoenix keeps playing Laurence Wyke at center back this preseason, which is perfectly legitimate but tears my assessment of their back line into tiny little shreds. Without Wyke, you’ve got a grouping of Mo Traore, John Stenberg, and Alejandro Fuenmayor from left to right. With Wyke in, I guess Fuenmayor moves to the left and you sit Traore, who was excellent in the playoffs? Something’s brewing. Personally, I’d just put Wyke in the central midfield.
Conner Antley is a very nice person and a player very worthy of an MLS shot. His transfer from the Tampa Bay Rowdies to DC United is also a huge win for the League One developmental pitch; Antley got his start with Tormenta, jumped to the Championship, and is now at the pinnacle of the American game. You love to see it.
Benton Newman’s piece on LouCity legends George Davis IV, Luke Spencer, and Paolo DelPiccolo - The Triumvirate - is probably the best USL thing I’ll read this year. Another content shout for Raising Anchor, who’s doing great work as Rhode Island FC prepare for their debut.
Ryan Allen, the actual stat nerd of The USL Show, has a wonderfully gonzo look at a reality where Bob Lilley becomes the manager of Liverpool. Will he succeed? Will he chew out Mo Salah for 45 minutes after a match? Read and find out.
Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you again soon.